Rob Manfred and the Destruction of Baseball (LOCKOUT 2022)

I’m not sure he has any point here. Teams can win the WS by being middle of the road spenders with a base of young talent and small deadlines moves? We just as easily could have been looking at the Dodgers in the WS. Or yankees or Sox.
I’d agree something should be done about teams just pocketing revenue and not caring about competing (Marlins). But I don’t think an unlikely team like the braves being World Series champ is indicative of any kind of problem.

sawchik on the issue of young players and money. i have no idea how you'd even solve this fairly in a vacuum let alone while using the current CBA as a starting point

The players' dilemma in a couple of charts. The first shows earnings and performance by age in 2021. Age 26 players produced the most combined WAR of any age group & most plate appearances and innings of any age group. They combined for 14.7% of WAR but 3.8% of pay pic.twitter.com/YJJXeVZMbo

— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) November 13, 2021

Combined, the 22-28 age range accounted for 56% of WAR but 25.8% of pay last season. (For reference, in 2003, 22- to 28-year olds accounted for 48.1% of WAR, further illustrating how younger players today are accounting for more production.) pic.twitter.com/dWxgtVjqZ8

— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) November 13, 2021

That's probably been the trend since the beginning of the free agent era. There was an unwritten acceptance that it was OK to underpay young players (benefitting the teams) because they'd be overpaid down the line if they were productive. Players didn't rock the boat because they knew they'd see big money later in their careers (benefitting them more than the teams). It's a strange equilibrium but it helped maintain labour peace for the most part after the collusion settlements in the 80's.

The problem now is that front offices have stopped playing along, analytics departments can't (and won't) buy in to such a huge market inefficiency. I think the players are stuck, management strategies are constantly evolving, and there won't be an easy solution to any of this.

MLB lockout likely to arrive late next week. One person's guess at a 2022 timetable: Spring training is delayed until deep into March. Regular season gets going third week of April. Season shortened to 145 games. This new CBA is going to be prolonged war.

— Lynn G. Henning (@Lynn_Henning) November 23, 2021

fwiw here is marvin miller's book in epub + mobi format

(believe it was initially scanned but also i spent a good bit of time cleaning it up)

We are locked out.

They've already taken down pretty much every story about an active player.https://t.co/ank1Uxa4Ry

— Jack Baer (@JFordBaer) December 2, 2021

So they could have just kept going with the previous framework until a new agreement was in place? I’m not quite sure why they had to LOCK OUT exactly.

I wonder if the age of social media will push more people take the side of players than in the past.

Mostly: who buys a ticket for the owners?

I think mlb.com needs to keep their off-season formula intact, just reimagine all those great story ideas in terms of management: "One Surefire Christmas Gift Idea for Every Assistant GM."

I was 10000% in support of the players in '94 (over the weekend, I'll try to dig something up I wrote at the time and post it here), and good Ball Four worshipper that I am, I'm still on their side. But I won't care a tenth as much this time.

(A big part of why I cared so much in '94--think the Jays were out of it by mid-season, even though they were coming of their two WS wins--were Williams/Griffey chasing Maris and Gwynn chasing .400.)

The thing that would even out the money in baseball and help grow the entire enterprise would be to evenly distribute the TV money across the entire league like the NFL so that players salaries are truly similar on all clubs but the major market clubs are never going to give that up.

Beyond that, I think the actual game play anymore in the MLB is just going to shit. They play so many games during the regular season, I swear the players look f'n bored half the time and you see just crappy play all around that never would have flown before.

If the players are f'n bored why the heck do they think the fans should care. And as a fan in Cincy, I don't anymore. I don't see why ANY mid market team should give two shits about their team anymore.

#NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/monyD2CDeL

— Joe Musgrove (@itsFatherJoe44) December 2, 2021

https://paydayreport.com/11337-2/

Beyond that, I think the actual game play anymore in the MLB is just going to shit. They play so many games during the regular season, I swear the players look f'n bored half the time and you see just crappy play all around that never would have flown before

According to manfred they locked out the players to avoid a strike. A strike is much worse than a lockout because

“you can’t quit! i locked you out first! NYEAHHHH!!”

also it’s a *defensive* lockout

stand your ground

a man’s cartel is his castle

Lead story on mlb.com today: "Commissioner reiterates desire to make deal." On deck for tomorrow: "Commissioner still in favor of reaching a deal."

defector is on the case

idk if labor law literally prevents them from even mentioning current players' names? iirc there have previously been minor fights about whether basic stats are proprietary, e.g., is it legal to say a dude hit X homers without paying MLB for the info (lol!)

in any case it's way too on-the-nose pointing out how baseball is nothing without the players

From Radio On #6, 27 years ago; as I wrote above, I cared a lot more then than I do now.

https://phildellio.tripod.com/ravitch.jpg

It may seem like I'm contradicting myself when I ridicule "had-enough" fans there. I don't think so: saying I don't care that much today isn't saying I've had enough, which is the kind of thing you say when you do care a lot. When they settle--tomorrow, in February, three years from now--I'll resume taking the same level of interest in the game that I took before the lockout, which amounts to following stats, following my favorite players, monitoring the Jays and ready to jump on their bandwagon at any given moment, and even, now and again, actually watching a game.

I'm sure every generation of baseball fans have this realization at one point or another, but in reality the game is played so very differently than it was in the 80s or even 90s for better or worse.

One example that I just find funny is that LaRosa's pizza for years would give out gift certificates for a free small 1 topping pizza if the Reds pitchers struck out 10 players for fans at the park. They changed it to a free slice for 11 strike outs now, as it literally happens every game now.

Some of the ball never being put into play and sitting back for a walk slows the rate of play down a ton, but the shit that infuriates me is that it 'seems' that even when they put the ball into play modern scouting pretty much has everyone down cold and yet I seem to see more crap fielding and baserunning.

While the better athleticism is probably part of the reason the strikeouts are much higher, I don't know that it has carried to better defense as you got the "Ugglafication" of players that can hit the long ball but they are playing out of position and are a brick in the field and usually swing and miss like Rob Deer.

Even if they can hit the long ball, they don't have the batting skills to work around their scouting though but hey they had that one year that got them that huge deal so I hope Eugenio Suarez really gives a good gift to his agent. That said, I like Geno at least he is not some social media A-hole, which is another reason to really hate this game.

And on top of that you got owners you now really know how big a A-holes they are that ruin entire clubs. Those shithead Trumpers that own the Cubs lead me to hope they never win a f'ing game ever again. But hey, that's nothing new I just know more about them now I suppose some owners are just smart to keep that crap on the down low.

So its probably more that I just despise the world more and more with baseball is just a microcosm of that hate. I hope this labor issue costs them the whole season, burn the fucker down.

i don’t disagree

in terms of the CBA it feels like that “one good year” problem is one facet of a nearly insoluble issue. stats show players peak around 25-27, yet that’s exactly the moment they can command big long term deals - and teams know their value will decline. maybe there’s a creative wayto deal with this but i haven’t read it

The lead story for two days running on mlb.com has been Old Hoss Radbourn. This cracks me up--I don't think they could have anyone else in that spot who more desperately cries out "We officially have nothing to write about."

https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/private/t_16x9/t_w2208/mlb/cffyjxiplqgfqzmwdlk3.jpg

Mind you, the exclamation points work wonders.

i suppose the way to deal the the peak year issue is to actually play younger players what they’re worth earlier in their careers wait why are you laughing

MLB Network has cut ties with insider Ken Rosenthal that is believed to be the end result of acrimony that peaked in the summer of 2020 after Rosenthal criticized commissioner Rob Manfred, The Post has learned.

https://nypost.com/2022/01/03/ken-rosenthal-out-at-mlb-network-over-rob-manfred-criticism/

Just came to post that--Trump evidently now in charge of MLB.

that is fucking pathetic

MLB is full of insecure and vindictive weasels ime

Wonder what other moves that chump would make if he had even more power.

Scherzer: Honestly, I believe that because what we’re fighting for is integrity. It’s about how the game is being played and how the rules of the game are affecting the competition of play. It’s obvious that we see teams tanking. I’m not here to sit here and say an owner is an evil person for tanking, because the strategy can work. But we feel the tanking has increased because of the rigid slot values of the draft picks. The amateur draft and the international market have incredible surplus value. That’s why the top picks are so coveted. The only way the CBA allows teams to get those players is by losing. That has become the winning strategy, yet that shouldn’t be a winning strategy in professional sports. That doesn’t sit well with players, and it affects a lot of different markets and guys’ ability to live out their dreams to play baseball. Additionally, when you have that tanking component in there, it also leads to service-time manipulation. As these teams gear up for their window, watching teams manipulate prospects’ clocks is wrong. It’s changing free agency from what it was supposed to be. Free agency’s supposed to be six years, and they’re manipulating it into seven years and that’s not OK in our book. And that’s a work stoppage issue for us. And so, like I said, all the players understand that and we’re willing to fight for that.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2022-01-03/max-scherzer-mlb-lockout-new-cba-dodgers-mets

he also alludes to "the grand bargain" falling apart i.e. underpaying young players and overpaying veterans.. now that owners are less willing to overpay veterans something needs to change on the front end

I agree with him on manipulating the clock--we saw that happen in Toronto with Vlad (and really, it was hard to argue with management, even though it was maddening to see him stuck down in Buffalo).

Is tanking that prevalent, though? I guess I just don't pay close enough attention to see it. To me, it feels like so many middle-level teams are trying to make moves at the deadline to grab a wild-card spot, at which point anything can happen.

Is tanking that prevalent, though?

yes

what did teams do up until the 90s when only four teams made the playoffs? is this new as far as overall strategy goes? i feel like tanking is not a huge issue if it's also much easier than ever to slip into the playoffs.

I remember perennial doormats being a bigger problem in the '70s and '80s--and much bigger than that, if you go back a few decades more. Honest question: how many teams haven't been competitive at all the past, say, five seasons? I can think of three or four offhand, at least a couple of which (Detroit, Pittsburgh) come out of a lengthy stretch of success.

xp in the past there were "fire sales" but i think this degree of tanking started with the cubs and astros.

i don't think it's the worst thing in the world, and i don't think lightly editing the draft process is going to fix it. you can spend money and still tank. spending money would make tanking a lot easier in some ways - we would see more trades where tanking teams take on bad contracts + prospects, we would see teams handing out riskier 1-year deals on FAs in hopes of trading them at the deadline, etc. but owners set the budgets and owners seem to really like the idea of not spending more than $40m for a few years.

i'm realizing i missed a transitional sentence there, but my point is that owners like tanking because it saves them money, not because it gets them high draft picks. if you want to force them to spend money you have to force them to spend money. kevin goldstein has said in various chats of his that one year's budget doesn't affect the next when those budgets are being set; spare money is pocketed, not banked.

I think people are exaggerating the tanking issue, it's true that the Cubs and Astros tanked and then won championships but landing high draft picks isn't enough, you have to develop those players development (which they were great at) and make plenty of other smart roster moves.

The new playoff format discourages tanking (since more teams can be in the mix) but it also discourages spending big money on free agents. The emphasis is on maximizing the number of years you get from your core young players (by manipulating their service time) and then adding spare parts midseason. There is a lot less incentive to spend money during the offseason. Last year's Braves bought low on Rosario and Soler and won the WS. That seems to happen almost every year, the eventual WS winner retools their bullpen and/or their bench with key underpaid players that fill a very specific need.

you have to develop those players development

Development is so important I had to mention it twice ...

Basically what I'm trying to say--that if a little tanking leads to the WS that the Astros and the Cubs won, I'm okay with that. I wouldn't say the Jays tanked after 2015/2016, but they did kind of write off the next few seasons as they waited for Vlad, Bichette, etc. I didn't mind.

I looked at four teams in the '70s: Cleveland, San Diego, Montreal, and the White Sox. Between them, they finished above .500 six times in 40 seasons; Cleveland won 81 twice, the Padres 84 once, the Expos 95 once ('79), and the White Sox 87 and 90. Every other season was below .500. The Cubs and Mets weren't much better.

Do decade-long stretches of futility like that happen anymore? Maybe they do and I'm oblivious (quite possible).

honestly – don't get the complaints about by-low free agents either. usually the money is far from humiliating and they're free to get a pay raise in FA the next season if they do well. and from a team perspective, why wouldn't they look for value out there, when the big name free agents become absolute dumpster fires half way into their deals (if not sooner) and it becomes embarrassing for everyone – shleping some grossly overpaid, underperforming vet onto the field every day, blocking a younger player, simply because he's got a massive contract.

xpost

to clemenza: the pirates are trying for that, it would seem!

They won 98 games as recently as 2015, but yeah, I guess they'll have to turn it around in the next three years to avoid that.

Ultimately, it all comes down to this:

he also alludes to "the grand bargain" falling apart i.e. underpaying young players and overpaying veterans...now that owners are less willing to overpay veterans something needs to change on the front end

They need to figure out that, or else go back to pretending that 30-year-olds are a great long-term investment.

(Not that they used to pretend, they actually believed that.)

i honestly don't know how you protect baseball from agreements both sides entered willingly.

Also heard MLB’s offer to players today included 14 teams in playoffs

That's arguably players' biggest bargaining chip: owners clearly want expanded playoffs.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) January 13, 2022

half the majors in the playoffs, we did it! we did it!!

Yes new one would be good. General 2022 MLB Season Chatter including additional designated hitters and ghost runners.

Also bonus wild cards

Ghost Run the WHIP

i don't really care what it's called as long as 2022 MLB is in the title somewhere for search purposes

^ new thread name. Right there.

ok I made the new thread!

Worth it for the headline:

https://www.theonion.com/rob-manfred-open-to-any-ideas-to-make-mlb-all-star-game-1849179763

Also: "there were no bad ideas...(including) letting teams start with a runner on third base during the fifth inning for no reason."

is it a widespread thing to call the extra-innings runner on second the 'manfred man' y/n

Before BWittJr, before Adalberto Mondesi (yet after BJackson), there was...

"The Mighty" Mark Quinn "The Eskimo"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EvZstgxmJs

re: mookie

yes

yeah i think it's too cute for how stupid the zombie runner is

I call it the manfred man mainly cos you can do it to the tune of macho man

i don't know about widespread, but i wouldn't think of using anything other than Manfred Mann. too perfect

ghost runner is a terrible thing to use, because anyone who ever played during recess knows the rules of a ghost runner don't apply here

lol otm

that's one of ben lindberg's hobbyhorses - the ghost runner already exists and this isn't it.

Also the runners aren’t deceased.

zombie runner is my preferred

yeah, zombie runner is what makes the most sense if you need a supernatural term

the runner that time forgot

Frankenstein’s baserunner

the Rob Zombie runner

Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred says he is getting emails from fans concerned over the sport's lack of a salary cap

gfy

Pretty scathing Posnanski column on Manfred today. Not sure if a link would help.

That’s the infuriating part of Rob Manfred’s reign: He never seems to get how much the small things matter. Every other day, it seems, he will just say something so dumb and insulting that it makes your heart sick. He’ll call the World Series trophy a piece of metal. He’ll rip Oakland fans for protesting the team’s move. He’ll reject the idea that minor leaguers aren’t getting paid a living wage, even as many of them take second jobs to survive. He’ll float the kooky idea of a “Golden At-Bat” out of nowhere. He’ll talk about how lockouts are good for baseball and wander into clubhouses to tell ballplayers just how great a salary cap would be for them. He’ll tell Los Angeles fans who are priced out of Dodgers games to just become Angels fans.

i haven't been following manfred's tenure for nearly as long or as deeply as folks here but it just doesn't seem to me that he's a baseball fan. he's a lawyer who got to work on MLB stuff. i don't think he has a favorite team, a favorite player. he treats everything in the way a lawyer would.

This is what set Posnanski off (yesterday):

"I think if we expand, it provides us with an opportunity to geographically realign. I think we could save a lot of wear and tear on our players in terms of travel. And I think our postseason format would be even more appealing for entities like ESPN, because you’d be playing out of the East and out of the West."

The subitle of the column includes "Now he's casually talking about getting rid of the American and National Leagues"--not sure if that's implied in the quote, but in any event, the line about catering to ESPN is pathetic.

Not sure if a link would help.

you'll never know until you try

Give this a try:

https://www.joeposnanski.com/p/rob-manfred-doesn-t-love-baseball-5bdf

I’m not sure what’s worse, getting rid of the AL and NL or maintaining the fiction that they’re still relevant entities

I'm sure this is a controversial opinion, but I would have no issue with baseball going to a more typical east vs west alignment, having 2 leagues only really made sense when you had slightly different rules in each league or before interleague play

of course, I would also be totally for the National League going back to not having a designated hitter, or having some other weird rule difference between the two leagues

1 conference for blue states, 1 conference for red states, no they're not equal and don't have to be - every 4 years everything slightly changes

The teams form the blue states concede every game to the red states in the name of unity and bipartisanship

MLB considers partnership with prediction markets, Manfred says

PALM BEACH, Florida -- Major League Baseball is considering partnering with prediction markets, commissioner Rob Manfred said Thursday, a move that would further tie the league to sports betting while two Cleveland Guardians pitchers face federal charges for an alleged pitch-rigging scheme.

Owners were briefed this week at their quarterly meetings about the possibility of partnering with Polymarket and Kalshi, federally regulated markets that allow wagering in an endless array of areas, including sports. MLB's partnerships with sports gambling companies give it access to the sort of data that tied Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase and starter Luis Ortiz to irregular betting patterns last year and wound up in their arrests.

Striking a deal with prediction markets, the commissioner said, would allow the league similar access to monitor a business so new that Manfred only learned of it in recent months. Currently, the NHL and UFC are the only major professional sports leagues partnering with Polymarket and Kalshi.

it's a $12B/yr business and they're out here chasing scraps with no regard whatsoever for the results/future of the game

Maybe they can partner up with a start-up cryptocurrency next.

If only Pete Rose and Bart Giamatti were still alive to see this.