The Dr. Morbius Memorial 2020-2021 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Matz had so much promise 96 mph lefty and local kid but he's gotten progressively worse.

I haven't paid attention too closely, but why did the Jays give up on Sean Reid-Foley? He was such a big deal a couple of years ago. I see look at this stats and see control issues and the possibility he's coming off an injury, but also a lot of strikeouts and he's only 24.

Matz is super streaky. He'll have a few great starts and just when you think he's an ace the wheels will come off and he'll lose his starting role and then he builds it back up and sucks you in...

why did the Jays give up on Sean Reid-Foley? He was such a big deal a couple of years ago.

i don't think he was ever a "big deal" – he was rounding out some of our top prospect list before Bo and Vlad etc came along because of a lack of depth at the time and his high draft level. i never had big hopes for the guy, his stuff never seem to develop and his control was all over the place. of all the guys who came up as a starter on the Jays right now, i liked him the least even out of the pen because he didn't seem to have any pitches that could blow anyone away. i'd rather see what guys like Zeuch or Merryweather or Borucki could do in our rotation. losing Josh Winckowski is the only thing that will keep me up at night about this deal (tho, i thought Diaz had some closer potential).

In the coming days, we’ll presumably learn more about other offers on the table. For now, it’s remarkable that nobody valued Tanaka’s durability and track record enough to pony up. A model of consistency, Tanaka had posted 2.5 WAR or better in each of the past four full seasons, and if you prorate his 2020 numbers to a normal innings total, he’d have cleared that bar again last year as well. You can even dream a little bit on the velocity uptick he saw in 2020, and corresponding increase in swinging strike rate from 2019. Steamer had him as a three-win player in 2021, and while ZiPS is a little more pessimistic, we’re still talking about a good mid-rotation arm here. It boggles the mind that 30 MLB teams effectively passed on him.

Look, it’s no fun at all poking at MLB and its many problems these days. I don’t want to write about all of the ways the league is failing its customers any more than you want to read it. But we can’t take the Tanaka signing, or non-signing depending on your perspective, in a vacuum. Three of the last four free agent markets have been ice cold. For all intents and purposes, the league has a salary cap, and there aren’t many teams at risk of reaching it. A bitter collective bargaining dispute looms. Amidst that landscape, one of the world’s best pitchers is leaving the country in part because nobody in the world’s best league made it a priority to sign him.

That’s a choice, as much a collective one as a series of individual decisions. What that says about the state of the league, and MLB’s place in the broader sport and entertainment industry isn’t entirely clear just yet. But whatever it is, it can’t be anything good.

link to the full piece?

I ask because I wonder if he was truly "passed" on or rather that his agent wouldn't accept an offer under "$x" as Tanaka could make that in Japan.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/masahiro-tanaka-signs-with-rakuten-eagles-wait-what/

Thanks, that was a good piece.

i don't want to speculate on this, but IF tanaka was looking at offers in A) the united states, a country of obnoxious loud racist patriot science skeptics vs B) japan, MLB veteran returning home having pitched 1000+ innings for the yankees, ending his career with tributes among friends and family, etc

i'm not sure how many millions that is worth

also: i'm just assuming there will be a strike/lockout in 2022, not sure about anyone else. but maybe he's thinking that in a pandemic, he'd rather pitch 2021 in japan than the US, and 2022 might be a wash for MLB anyway.

I know Japan is revered in awkward whimsical ways in the west, but that country is perhaps as racist and science-skeptical as this one, maybe more!

Yes, they do wear masks when they are sick, but I suggest not talking to Japanese nationals about vaccinations.

yeah, i didn't mean to emphasize that so much i guess. maybe he loves living here (who wouldnt?!?!). and as the fangraphs article mentions, most other players don't play in Japan until the end of their careers, after they can't get playing opportunity here anymore. so obviously it's not down to which country rules more (USA, obviously!!). that's why i wish i'd emphasized the factors in my second post more: pandemic + impending 2022 no mlb

Agreed it's a weird time and in a time of uncertainty he can be patient and spend a year back home and rack up another absurd stat season to bring back to the USA when the owners have bigger checkbooks.

Okay, morning news in Japan says that the Jays were aggressively pursuing him but he decided to return to Japan instead.

Also mentioned that 2021 is the 10 year anniversary of the Tohoku earthquake (and subsequent nuclear meltdown) which is near where the Eagles play so Tanaka's homecoming will be a very symbolic return for the local fans.

joc pederson to the cubs, 1 yr/$7 million

if you have to have this type of Guy, i'll take pederson over schwarber

Tanaka just be homesick. Homesickness is a big deal.

Might just be, sorry.

BREAKING: Cardinals have agreed to acquire Nolan Arenado from Rockies, sources tell @TheAthletic. Deal pending approval from both MLB and players’ union; Rockies sending Cardinals significant cash, believed to be in $50M range, and Arenado will be deferring money.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 30, 2021

The Rockies barely escaped last place last season, looks like they're just gonna phone this season (and the next few) in.

Congrats to the NL Central winners St Louis Cardinals.

Happy for KM.

Whoa!!!

Just saw this, here! Ok...

there's a real pipeline from colorado to st. louis, eh?

cards are also bringing back waino and yadi on one-year deals apparently

so many teams simply not bothering

I’m trying to think of who else went Colorado >> St Louis. Walker, Holliday went to the A’s before landing in Col. Fowler had a couple teams between. I feel like there’s some obvious names I’m forgetting.

the larry walker trade was pretty great, although it's been a while.

wainwright signed for $8M, I'd expect yadi will announce shortly then too. maybe they were holding off on those until arenado, to decide whether they were in on NL Central or not? the cards are no powerhouse that's for sure, but this does put them a little ahead this year (AKA div series exit)

as for the return, Austin Gomber is a MLB pitcher, 4th or 5th in most rotations, and Baker is a backup 1B. Jhon Torres could be the headliner of the deal, in a few years - he's very good.

I'm very interested to see what Arenado does outside of Colorado. Nothing to do with the Cardinals or KM, but I've always been a skeptic with him.

Career Home/Away:

@COL .322/.376/.609 = .985
Away .263/.322/.471 = .793

@Busch
.278/.337/.511 = .848

If they get that kind of away/Busch offense out of him plus his defense (I don't really see him, but supposedly Mike Schmidt-level), then that's an All-Star, for sure, if not an MVP candidate.

i'm jealous that in the NL central, all a team needs to do is exist to have a respectable chance at making the playoffs.

incredible take

Rockies trading away Arenado is big step towards following the Rays model. Rays traded away Longoria, then Archer in past three years and wound up in World Series last season. Then Snell dealt. Not saying this will happen for Rox. Just saying Rays have influence here. #9sports

— Mike Klis (@MikeKlis) January 30, 2021

just saying! lol

Colorado would be a .333 team in the AL East.

christ. who is that idiot? that was so dumb i'm seriously annoyed

cardinals should have demanded a couple prospects too

be nice to mike he literally just learned what a "trade" is

Feeling for Story.

Pulling for these two.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30800732/san-francisco-giants-outfielder-drew-robinson-remarkable-second-act

https://www.ocregister.com/2021/02/02/andrelton-simmons-opens-up-about-depression-and-thoughts-of-suicide/

chris archer back to tampa lol

courageous of both of them to share that stuff publicly, and very glad that they did. it's not an option that everyone has, but it's a good thing when people are able to talk about it

xp

gonna be pretty disappointed when the mets sign bauer

nm

so not the A's then

Per Spotrac, Bauer's 2021 salary is more than the total payrolls of the Pirates, Indians and Orioles. https://t.co/ss1nIUOPdd

— Josh Norris (@jnorris427) February 5, 2021

Kolten Wong to the Brew Crew

That's overpaying for Bauer imo

yeah, but it's only two years (after which he'll opt out unless he blows out his elbow or something)

also dexter fowler traded/dumped to anaheim

it *is* a lot of fuss for a guy with a career 3.90 era

curious about whether they'll let him go every 4 days like he wants to

I doubt it. It would get in the way of developing May and Urias.

Agreed with Craig Goldstein on twitter that it's a bit dumb to go above the luxury tax for Bauer when they had so many better options prior.