MLB general postseason 2020 thread

it's surprisingly difficult to make a baseball-related jethro tull reference

hahaha, google Gerald Bostock and softball when you have a minute

Astros in 7!

“I watch playoffs/world series in a weird way. Once my Twins are eliminated I root for whoever eliminates the Yankees. “

Lol did someone get their feelings hurt?

is it you?

Baker: "They cooked me for taking Russ Ortiz out in the World Series in 2002. In today's game that would be the thing to do. Third time through the order, 6 2/3..."

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 15, 2020

nah, they cooked you for giving him the ball

It was all the Rally Monkey's fault.

well

Kershaw and the third time through the order.

This Braves hitting reminds me of the 2019 Nats.

would be amazing to see ATL drop a 15 spot in this inning

will it ever be enough for you?

you love to see it

damn, we don't get to see Will Smith vs. Will Smith.

(asking again: have they faced each other before?)

Just fuckin' no with the Astros, I'm all in for Rays/Braves

I was slammed at work and couldn't see much of the game but I saw Acuña tumble -- did he leave the game, is he ok?

At the time it looked like he broke/sprained his wrist (might be my PTSD from my vert skateboarding days), but he ended up staying in and seemed fine so shrug.ascii

might be my PTSD from my vert skateboarding days

looool okay toughie

Sixth inning playoff Kershaw ... again.

How many teams down 3-0 have forced a game 6? '99 Mets and '04 Red Sox, are there more?

Starting to look like big trouble for the Rays.

I don’t feel like watching an Astros vs Braves WS.

Okay guys, Will Smith vs. Will Smith is happening right now.

First time players with the same name have faced each other in the postseason.

Will Smith prevails!

The battle of Will Smith vs. Will Smith could not have been any better.

Astros in 7!

Webb channeling his inner Kenny Powers meltdown

The Will Smith battle is why you can’t beat baseball.

Astros series setup in perfect spot for Dusty Baker to produce the playoff nut buster crushing loss across their fan-base that he has delivered to every town he has managed within before.

I am not liking the Rays situation currently.

LA

(xpost) I've subscribed to this theory the last few years that whenever every conceivable sign points to a game going one way, expect the opposite to happen; sports just doesn't make sense a lot of the time. So with 90% of baseball fans nauseous about the prospect of the Astros in the WS, wouldn't surprise me at all if the Rays win.

Stop trying to put hopeful thoughts in my head! (I realize the odds are pretty much 50/50)

like a football bouncing, we just don't know where it's going to go

clemenza otm

betting line is rays -118 and dodgers -140, both of which i find kind of surprising

Or, if you believe momentum to be a myth, probability would heavily favour the Rays. A .667 team should beat a .483 team about 63% of the time, all else being equal. The likelihood of the .483 teams winning four in a row would be--I think--.37 x .37 x .37 x .37, or about a 2% likelihood. (But I'm not sure. Does every game have to be treated independently, in which case it's the same 37% for tonight? I mean, the probability of flipping a head is always 50%, but if you step back, the probability of four in a row is about 6%.)

http://sabr.org/journal/article/probabilities-of-victory-in-head-to-head-team-matchups/

A .667 team should beat a .483 team about 63% of the time, all else being equal.

given the unbalanced schedule other things are not equal, but yeah

it's the same 37% (or whatever) for tonight, although the starting pitcher matchup will make predicting any one game by overall records essentially meaningless

both teams have scored 21 runs in the series

Even factoring in the cheating, I think the Astros are a much better team than their record would indicate.

Agree with that, and to take their record literally is, I think--putting the cheating aside--wrong. It reminds me of the ILB poll a few years ago that included the 2000 Yankees as one of the worst WS winners because they were 87-74 for the season. It was, within the context of the Yankee-revolving-door, the same basic team as the '98/99/01 teams; the core was there anyway, plus other overlap. This year's Astros team is more or less the same Astros team of the last few years--not as good, but realistically closer to the WS team than to a .480 team.

Cardinals 2006 team was probably one of their worst to make the playoffs yet won it all. Looking it up they were only 83-78 that year. Same deal though, as they were in the playoffs nearly every year those days.

Was going to mention them, too, but then I noticed they were even worse in 2007...but they do go along with the general point, though.

Even factoring in the cheating, I think the Astros are a much better team than their record would indicate.

yeah -- they won 100+ games the last three years, and even with verlander out and cole gone they're still pretty decent

This year's Astros team is more or less the same Astros team of the last few years

I don't think the Astros are as bad as their record but losing Verlander and Cole is huge

stunned that treinen didn't give up a game-tying homer there

losing Verlander and Cole is huge

I was just thinking of Cole (so more the regular-season 2020 team); you're right, they're without Verlander right now, and that is decidedly not as strong a team.

If you hate the Astros and you're bigger on karma than probability, I would think that losing tonight, after coming all the way back--as opposed to getting swept and shrugging "Not our year"--would be the best possible way to see them exit. (Unless you're a big Rays fan, where the sweep would have obviously been better.)

What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on here?

Game 7 bitch

https://i.imgur.com/1uGHkJo.jpg

ok, rays vs astros, who are we rooting for here?

guess i'm going rays, since they have no money, they do have arozarena, and also fuck the astros

the amazing raaaaaaaaaaaandy

7 HRs this postseason - that's your Mazda Rookie Record - driving matters