2018 NLCS - Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers

i had to lol at this quote:

Brewers manager Craig Counsell was asked after Game 4 whether Machado was going beyond the limits of playing hard and responded by saying: "I don't think he's playing all that hard."

Yeah on the radio it sounded like he might be hurt but he’s clearly not

Lol this is amazing

wanted to get Woodruff's bat in vs Kershaw

In Game 7 of the 1924 World Series, Washington's righty starter Curly Ogden was pulled for a lefty after two batters, to mess with New York's line-up. Here's how it played in the press.

whipping via psychology!!! pic.twitter.com/B29XYEUe3V

— Emma Baccellieri (@emmabaccellieri) October 17, 2018

Maaan did the Crew miss a big opportunity there

"whipping via psychology" would be a good politics thread title

That.....feels like game over

Was that Muncy’s first slide?

Hey Grandy finally got the big hit

I started this series more or less neutral, with maybe a slight preference for the Brewers. I've been rooting for L.A. since it got underway, though, because of Counsell's nonsense. Successful strategies are imitated, and I want this one to die an immediate death. (If someone wants to unearth it in another 94 years, have at it.)

saw the pivotal 6th and 7th (over an hour) in a bar. Corbin Burnes? Wasn't he on "L.A. Law"?

I hope no starters go more than 2 next year. FOR THE TIMES THEY ARE AAAAAAA-

xp wait you find counsell's strategies worse than machado deliberately kicking a first baseman's ankle?

I'd agree if the Brewers had the payroll of the Dodgers/Astros/Red Sox.

dirty play has a rich history; not letting a pitcher earn a "win" under 19th-century accounting schemes is meddling with the primal forces of nature!

speaking of dirty play having a rich history, feels like the machado incident would have been answered with a beanball in pretty much any game from the invention of baseball up to around 199X or so

even past that, a manager like larussa would've ordered a beaning, no doubt

Right in the beans

the machado incident *will* be answered with a beanball at some point when the stakes are lower, even if he's on a different team and even if it takes a couple years

Don't care about the pitcher-win (you would need that spelled out, of course). The Machado play is on Machado--I don't expect that will be imitated as a strategy. I just have this weird idea that the starters are, by and large, the best pitchers out there, and I like seeing them pitch deeper into the game than an endless procession of the guys who aren't, by and large, the best pitchers out there.

This strategy (Miley) isn't new at all, Jim Leyland famously pulled the same trick in the 1990 NLCS and I'm fairly sure it wasn't too uncommon during the era of Stengel's Yankees.

I'm not necessarily saying it's new, but if you have to go back 28 years to pull out another example, it's not very common either. Except that, while it was a gimmicky move then, it feels like we're at a point in history where it really could become commonly adopted. Sorry, I just don't want to see that. I don't want a revolving door of Joe Biaginis. I thought the clueless misogynist Bill James had a salient point the other day:

Since baseball exists only to be enjoyed and pro baseball is dependent for its existence on those who enjoy it, the fact that many people LIKE the old system of ace starters and starter accountability is very relevant to debates about our future.

Except that relievers are better at getting outs than starters these days, even on playoff caliber teams as we're seeing.

You definitely can't say that about Joe Biagini.

i want my Bob Gibson complete game with a higher mound, consarn it!

kErShaW cAn’T pItCh In ThE pLaYoFfS https://t.co/Pu7fd0DQsk

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) October 18, 2018

Are you ever able, in the course of a disagreement, to refrain from wildly caricaturing the other side? I suggested earlier in this thread, using Kershaw's Atlanta game as a test case, that the Gibson-type postseason start now seemed to be an impossibility. And if that's the case, that that part of baseball history is officially closed, yes, I think the game is poorer because of it.

To take that, meld it with my argument that I don't want every post-season game to be bullpen day, and come out with your ridiculous contention that I'm pining for 1968, that's basically how you approach every issue, isn't it? When it comes to the gray area of anything, you're hopelessly lost.

Posnanski can write about this because--after a career advocating against putting Morris in the HOF, arguing for Raines and Whittaker, and just in general being very attentive to the sabermetric side of things--you can't caricature him as Joe Morgan. He's the best kind of baseball writer, one who can hold two contradictory thoughts in his mind at the same time.

This is not you.

It's fun for me, clem.

(also if 21st-century MLB alienates you, you'll have more time to catch up with some films made after 1978)

Case in point.

You definitely can't say that about Joe Biagini.

I realize I'm starting to use Biagini like I use (depending upon the decade in question) Wishbone Ash, an Doctor and the Medics, and Right Said Fred when writing about music, as kind of all-purpose punchline.

(That "an" needs to be re-positioned towards the end.)

the Dodgers kinda suspected this was coming, didn't they? they had two lefties in the lineup last night. against Miley in Game 2 they had none.

this sort of postseason overmanaging is nothing new...y'all remember LaRussa, right?

the starters are, by and large, the best pitchers out there, and I like seeing them pitch deeper into the game than an endless procession of the guys who aren't, by and large, the best pitchers out there

this is largely true, but much less so when your available starter is wade miley on short rest. (he pitched pretty well for milwaukee this year, but overall he's mediocre.) counsell's just trying to win a playoff game against a team that wildly outspends and outguns his; it didn't work, but whatever.

rooting and hating in sports is weird and irrational, but tbh it would make more sense to me to hate the brewers for hader being a bigot or braun a liar or for bud selig's long-ago crimes than because some team might copy this one weird trick. your mileage, of course, varies

I like the traditional starter model too cuz it kind of feels like a video game where you're trying to get to the last level on 1 life. But I think at this point it's pretty clear that this ain't the best way to win baseball games - we know starters do worse their 3rd time through, we know throwing a ton of innings is bad for their health, and we're entering an era full of relievers who can throw 1-2 innings of straight-up unhittable 98 mph pitches (which is its own problem, imo).

The fact that managers are *just now* realizing this feels overdue...sorta like the quote-unquote "4th down revolution" in the NFL where coaches are finally making the obviously correct decision after decades of going the "safe" route

How about this fix - every time a relief pitcher comes in, the mound gets moved back 6 inches

sounds like a proposal for the Effectively Wild podcast

rooting and hating in sports is weird and irrational

In general, I do agree with the hating part of that. I don't even hate the Brewers here--I don't like the manager's strategy, but I don't hate the team. They're a good story. Selig's ancient history, the actions of Braun and Hader are theirs and theirs alone.

Anyway, I think the general point about the Kershaw stat is not that he hasn't been subpar in the postseason, just that he has been good or dominant in about a third of his appearances.

Clem, I have 3 major issues with your opinion on bullpenning. First, the obvious, put yourself in the managers shoes, you know how every inning count in a post-season game. If your starter can't face the first time through the order without allowing 4 runs, do you keep him up? Or do you send your best bullpen asset? Blaming any manager to comply with the do or die nature of post-season seems very counter-intuitive to me. Especially when one of these bullpens game happened because Counsell's third starter hurt his ankle after 3 outs.

Second, you know that if Counsell could send Max Scherzer and Blake Snell, he would. This is the situation MLB placed itself in, it's now very difficult for lower market teams to consistently get good starters. Heck, even the Yankees and Cubs had many question marks beyond Tanaka and Hendricks. Once Peralta faded from lack of experience and Davies got figured out, the Brewers parted with two prospects to get Gio, so it's not like the Brewers aren't looking for reliable starters. The situation is so dire for the Brewers that now Zach Davies might start a NLCS elimination game, this is not a strategy, this might be the only way for the Brewers to compete. Kevin Cash said on one of those idiotic MLB media talk show that 'opening' would be abandoned if he had the Astros' or Red Sox's roster, a manager just got to maximise what he has under his hand to win.

Third, yes starters are one of the brillant aspect of this brillant sport, it's what got me into loving the game, but to compare Hader/Knebel/Jeffress/Soria to a Biaginis after Biaginis is unfair and not really looking for excitement where it is. If you don't get a kick from Hader's fastball/slider combo then... I don't know really. Those three innings Peralta pitched were spectacle, warts and all. So was freaking Woodruff hitting a home run off Kershaw. Those things are fun, those players are good, it's pitching duels, it's good baseball. We might agree on something, there is a limit to my enthusiasm to how bullpens can be weaponized. I too fear the clock is ticking on a Yankees WS run where a 100 m$ bullpen pitch 75% of the post-season, this is where we might be going. Might. But even then the problem would not lie in the manager and his use of bullpen and starters, it is just grave payroll disparities.

Second, you know that if Counsell could send Max Scherzer and Blake Snell, he would.

Does Clem even know who Snell is yet?

Pretty certain he discussed Snell extensively in the AL Cy Young debate, like everyone.

Missed Snell from Tampa Bay (because I don't know who Snell from Tampa Bay is).

― clemenza, Saturday, July 7, 2018 5:54 AM (three months ago)

. I too fear the clock is ticking on a Yankees WS run where a 100 m$ bullpen pitch 75% of the post-season, this is where we might be going.

I'd be worried about this more if those pitchers had an ability to pitch more than say 5-6 innings in a 7-game series. If you rewatch that Hader 3-inning outing...by the 3rd inning his velocity had notably dropped and all three outs he got were long fly balls. But I agree that there's something worrisome there. The way things are going we might have dozens of Aroldis Chapman-type relievers in 2030, which I don't think would be good for the game.

Oh, I'm always behind the curve with emerging stars. I didn't know Snell on July 7; obviously, I got to know him quickly after that. Years ago, I put a poll up here about the best age-25 starters, something like that, and someone suggested I'd missed (the pre-Cy) Kershaw; I was basically, "Kershaw?"

If a guy gives up four runs, absolutely, pull him. I was surprised Cora hung in as long as he did with Price the other day. What I'm against is what Counsell did with Gonzalez in Game 1--preemptively pull him, after he gave up one run in two innings (least of all in the opening game--did he really have to go through seven pitchers out of the gate?). The small-market argument I get up to a point, but the season is over, it's been played. Milwaukee won 96 games, the Dodgers won 92. Maybe Counsell still feels he's working from some innate disadvantage, and has to reinvent the game to have a chance, but I doubt that the Milwaukee players are sitting in the dugout thinking, "How are we ever going to compete with this gargantuan payroll? We need to be creative." They won four more games than the Dodgers--I'm sure they're playing with all the confidence in the world. I won't even get into the amusing mindset that a) complains about the length of games, and b) seems to endorse the bullpenapalooza style of management. There is a connection there.

but to compare Hader/Knebel/Jeffress/Soria to a Biaginis after Biaginis is unfair

Fair point. As I wrote above, I just find it fun to pick on Biagini.

I know I'm complaining into the void. This is where we are, and this is where we're staying. But it doesn't mean I have to like it or agree with it.

I doubt you could find a better snapshot of what was both great and disastrous about The Way Things Used to Be than Luis Tiant and the '75 Series. I feel very fortunate to have seen his opening-game win (a CG five-hit shutout) and, maybe even more so, his improbable CG win in game 4, where he was left out there for 9 hits, 4 walks, and 4 runs, against the Big Red Machine, no less, and the Red Sox won 5-4. No pitch count, but I bet he threw 130 pitches at least. Roger Angell wrote very well about those games, and there was also the Sports Illustrated account, probably by Ron Firmite--I was rooting for the Reds, but there was something indelible and thrilling about what Tiant did, and I can still picture him out there. I think it's too bad you probably won't get to see anything like that again--certainly not the 5-4 win.

The cost? They threw him out again for Game 6--yes, that Game 6 (there'd been a few days' worth of rain postponements)--and left him in for 7 innings of 11 hits, 2 walks, and 6 runs. Insane. Boston lost, and you know the rest. That would never happen again. Thankfully.

Something lost, something gained.

Um, minor correction--Boston won game 6. Some guy hit a home run, I think. But the point about Tiant stands.

What Counsell's doing here isn't some gimmicky underdog strategy like the full-court press or going for it on every 4th down, it's a function of how this team is built, which in itself is a function of Milwaukee's small-market payroll and a smarter front office. They came into the year with money to spend and a obvious need for a frontline starter, and instead spent their money on Cain and two SPs that weren't really on anyone's radar (Chacin and Gallardo). They then dealt four of their big prospects (including their #1 guy!) for Yelich, something which a "rebuilding" team doesn't often do. They came into the season with up to six potential starting outfielders, not dealing any of them because they didn't receive an acceptable offer (rumor was that nobody was willing to offer much, figuring that Milwaukee was desperate to offload their logjam). During the season they traded for two middle infielders they didn't really need, and picked up Soria despite having a bullpen that was already stacked. That's just been their MO, pick up value any time you can, don't sell low, and ask players to move around to accommodate. Hence Braun at 1B, Thames in the outfield, Shaw at 2B, like 9 different guys starting games...some of this didn't really work out, but that's the beauty of the regular season, you have time to figure it out.

So yeah, they get into the playoffs with a pretty great team, albeit one with a weird roster that's like, 3-4 closers and 7 #3 starters. Counsell's just doing what every good manager ought to do, play to your team's strengths, which in this case is not just getting your lockdown relievers in for as many innings as you can, and also the fact that your starters are fairly interchangeable, so there's no reason to leave anyone out there to the point where they become less effective. The Miley/Woodruff thing is not something a traditionally-built playoff team could really pull off. For most teams, losing your Game 1 starter to injury would be devastating...for Milwaukee, it doesn't really matter at all. If Milwaukee had pursued someone like Arrieta they might not have to rely on 'gimmicky' stuff like this but they also might not have even made the playoffs in the first place. Like yeah, getting a 5 WAR season out of a guy making $22M is a bargain, but a better bargain is picking up 3-4 dudes off the scrapheap who can combine for that and don't hamstring your payroll later on. You just have to figure out how to field a team out of those guys.

Okay. I don't have anything else to add to what I wrote above...You're a Brewers fan, so obviously you know their situation much better than I do.

apropos of nothing i'm really glad to see Austin Barnes getting the nod after Grandal's abominable performance in gm 2. i really like his demeanor on both O and D

even if tonight’s game is just a normal nine-inning affair, it will end at midnight eastern. smh

yes i am an eastern time chauvinist, no i do not care about dodger fans and their friday work schedules

Tiant threw 155 pitches in Game 4. (Looked it up.)

Yikes. Where did you find that, Tim? Nothing on Baseball Reference, unless I'm missing it.