My Favorite Wife: The Justin Verlander Thread

Posnanski has Verlander #92 on his 100-greatest countdown (and managed to sneak in a photo of he and Kate Upton engaging in a little no-you're-schmoopy).

I noticed Verlander is 27-10 with the Astros, which is the same record as Carlton in '72 (famously, with the last-place Phillies). A comparison:

Carlton             Verlander
IP: 346.1           305.1
H: 257              216
K: 310              401
BB: 87               56
HR: 17               42
ERA: 1.97           2.36

Huge advantage for Carlton in HR; huge advantage for Verlander in strikeouts. After you make all the adjustments for era, park, etc., Carlton's WAR was 12.1, Verlander's 10.0--he's basically (with a World Series winner, yes, rather than a last-place team) put together Steve Carlton's 1972 over two seasons.

A little Monday-morning quarterbacking here, but what exactly was it that gave Verlander such pause about going to the Astros? Was it all the young talent and playing for a potential dynasty that he was worried about?

2800 strikeouts

He went off on Manfred and the baseball a few weeks ago. Something from Posnanski this morning:

Back to Verlander: He has now allowed 31 home runs this year — an astounding 1.64 homers per nine innings. He also has a 2.81 ERA. These two things happening concurrently does not compute. Here are the best ERAs for pitchers who have allowed 1.6 or more homers per nine innings:

1. Justin Verlander, 2019, 2.81
2. Mike Fiers, 2018, 3.56
3. Ramon Ortiz, 2002, 3.77
4. A.J. Griffin, 2013, 3.83
5. Bert Blyleven, 1986, 4.01

From 2005-15, Verlander's HR/9 rate was 0.8 (ERA, 3.52); 2016-18, 1.2 (ERA, 2.97); this year, 1.6 (ERA, 2.81). That's bizarre.

He's given up three in a game four times this year.

Obviously...he's leading the league in WHIP!

When he pitched for Detroit, it used to be way more doubles than home runs but the numbers have gotten closer since he was traded and this year it's 31 HR, 23 2B.

tbf, houston's a more homeriffic park than detroit

(and also the ball is juiced)

Taking this weirdness to the next level: complete game two-hitter, 11 strikeouts, no walks, 99 pitches...both hits HR, loses 2-1.

didnt throw a single pitch w a runner on base

That is an insane all time loss.

According to sports betting sites, it was the biggest single game upset in 15 years.

I noticed this weird headline last night on The Detroit Free Press (slightly altered this morning): "Vintage Verlander pitches Tigers to 2-1 victory in Houston." Maybe that's behind this unfortunate story:

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2019/08/22/houston-astros-detroit-free-press-justin-verlander/2081318001/

Just what baseball needs, a shot of Donald Trump.

The Tigers beat Justin Verlander again. They continue to win the trade.

— anthony fenech (@anthonyfenech) August 22, 2019

lol this guy should really stop talking

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/justin-verlander-donation-coronavirus-relief-1.5522293

Whatever you think of him, that's great.

Tommy John

Worth it financially: set to make $33M next year. Is it worth it beyond that? His HOF induction is a lock, he plays for a despised team, and I'll stop there.

Re the HOF: while he benefitted in terms of run support and probably a few extra wins, I assume the sign-stealing doesn't stick to Verlander the way it will with Altuve or any other hitter.

He probably won’t be back until the last month of next season. And he’ll be going on 40 in the 2022 season. If he’d been mediocre I could see him hanging it up, but I feel like he’s got to feel like he has a few years left in him.

has anyone else had TJ at age 37?

Moyer had it at like 47!

I've no doubt he'd still be effective at 40, I'm just not sure why he'd push himself to get there (beyond the obvious incentive of the big payday...I'm so clueless about contracts; I assume he forfeits the money if he were to retire?).

Yup. But if he w aged to retire I’m sure the team could work with him to renegotiate since they’d want to avoid paying that full salary (opting to defer likely) while he’s hurt.

But I totally get why someone would want to keep playing baseball as long as possible. A) you’re playing baseball. B) it’s all you know, life after any career can be scary. C) you’re playing baseball!!! Who wouldn’t want to play ball as long as possible?!

most successful big leaguers are insanely competitive; i'm sure he's no different

pretty remarkable season, at 39, coming off TJ

12-3, 1.89, 0.88 WHIP, just passed schilling and gibson for 14th on the all-time K list

didn't know he was still pitching tbh. that's amazing.

Posnaski had a shareable piece two weeks ago about his chances for 300 wins:

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/verlander-and-300?r=1jtu0&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

62 more wins would seem almost impossible to me, unless he is indeed Randy Johnson (or a chemically-assisted Roger Clemens).

He is honestly incredible

Love that Kershaw is still doing it too

Pos' stats are a bit misleading -- Randy Johnson had 75 wins from his age 39 season onward.

Verlander's FIP is over 3.00, but most pitchers need a year to return to form after TJ, so he might be getting better.

Another great start today: now 13-3 (yes, yes, I know), 1.86 ERA, the usual excellent rate stats. Gotta be one the half-dozen greatest years ever for a 39-year-old starter (post-war, anyway). But he'd lose the Cy Young to McClanahan.

(Manoah pitched well today too, and he's hanging on. But unless both those guys get shelled a couple of times, he's got no chance.)

Or maybe the best-ever for a 39-year-old starter. Checked Randy Johnson (hurt) and Clemens (so-so), and beyond them, who else would there be? Even Cy Young (so-so), Walter Johnson (last season, hanging on), and Christy Mathewson (three years into retirement) don't rate.

Yeah, Clemens was so-so in his age 39 season, but won the Cy at age 41 and posted a sub-2.00 ERA the year after. Narrowing the search down to a specific age is a bit misleading.

Even so, Phil Niekro had a 10.0 WAR season at age 39 (he was very good and pitched over 300 innings), Wainwright was great just last year. I'm sure there are others.

Clemens was so-so in his age 39 season, but won the Cy at age 41 and posted a sub-2.00 ERA the year after.

For that same reason, I kind of put Niekro (and Hough, who led the league in IP at 39 with 285, and was pretty effective in a hitter's year) in a separate category.

check out nolan ryan's age 40, 42, and 43 seasons, particularly 1989, when he was 42:

239 IP, 16W-10L, 11.32 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 3.20 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 7.0 fWAR

his competition for best pitcher in the AL in 1989 was a pair of royals, Saberhagen and Mark Gubicza, both of whom struck about half as many as people but also gave up fewer walks and home runs.

Embarrassed that I forgot to check Ryan. How about Warren Spahn at 42?

23-7, 2.60, 259.2 IP, 22 CG (different time, I know--1963--but still, 42!). His age-41 season was better by WAR.

'63 was also the year that Spahn and Marichal hooked up for this:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN196307020.shtml

15.1 innings, 1 run, against a lineup that 1-5 went Harvey Kuenn, Mays, McCovey, Felipe Alou, and Cepeda.

i didn't realize Spahn pitched into his 40s, let alone so well! i guess i should have figured by his 363 wins, which is one of those numbers seared into my brain even as i've forgotten so many other things

while we're doing rando old pitcher tidbits, as i was scanning the internet to look for good old pitchers i ran across good 45-year-old charlie hough throwing the opening day / opening franchise game for the florida marlins in 1993! hough toughed it out for 200+ innings that year, which i find impressive given that i'm 39 and when i bend down to tie my shoes i usually give a heavy grunt and take lord's name in vain

A couple of excellent 40-year-old seasons: Jamie Moyer and Bartolo Colon.

final rando aside, sorry:

if i could go back in time and try to be a pro baseball player again (I topped out at age 13), but have to deal with the same constraints (my ISO is 0.00; all of my skills are like "mini" versions of what larger people can do), i would appear out of nowhere to myself and say "hey squirt! hey lil fucker! you're done for. you cannot be ozzie smith. instead, you must learn how to throw a knuckleball. a knuckleball specialist is like a placekicker - a wild card, the only possible way that lil squirts can possibly be useful to a professional team. also, don't worry about hannah not liking you back -- she ends up being a meth head. ok good luck! also, don't go to college!" *poof*

haha great asides, Karl

haha, glad it's not a threadender at least :)

Another random great age 39 season from a guy who pitched forever: Hoyt Wilhelm in 1962, in 93 innings of relief he posted a 1.94 ERA (192 ERA+) and 90 K's in 93 IP (8.7 K/9 IP). His rate stats wouldn't look out of place in a discussion of the best relievers of today, except that the league average was 5.3 K/9 IP. So he was a 39 year old reliever with a sub-2.00 ERA striking out the equivalent of about 14 K/IP today. And he remained good for another six or seven years!

14 K/IP

should be 14 K/9 IP, obviously

Easing his way back: 5 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 9 K. Probably finished for the night, but not sure.

I don’t want to clutter up the postseason thread with any more Verlander talk, but I had some stuff to add and remembered I could post that here.

Two people who disagreed with me about G1, Thermo and Tracer, were on the postseason thread kinda sorta saying that they understood leaving in McCullers; Verlander should have been pulled in the 5th (maybe even the 4th), but McCullers wasn’t as clear-cut.

All those runs were home runs tho, right? I tuned in part way through but it didn’t look like he was getting into constant jams and walking people or anything.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, November 2, 2022 8:56 AM

yeah the 3rd and 4th he was three up three down. the other innings he only gave up a walk and a hit (apart from the homers lol)
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, November 2, 2022 9:16 AM

it did seem like he was (basically) in control. what you may be able to ding baker for is using mccullers in the first place, who relies on breaking balls. philly, as we have seen, enjoys that stuff. javier, as fine a starter as the astros have imo, with an absolutely wicked fastball, may not even pitch until game 6. if there is a game 6.
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, November 2, 2022 9:22 AM

McCullers gave up five home runs--they were teeing off on him. He didn’t have time to get into jams; baseballs kept leaving the park. I find the McCullers-maybe vs. Verlander-definitely-not argument bizarre.

I also looked into some of the analogies that NoTime drew in his post the other day:

Re:Verlander, in G7 of the 2003 ALCS (the Pedro-Grady Little game), Torre pulled Clemens in the fourth inning. There was speculation at the time that he was retiring and it was his final game. Didn't matter to Torre, Clemens was done. Bochy won three championships with the Giants by not being sentimental with his SP's. He had former CY winners like Zito, Peavy, and Lincecum and used a quick hook with them, reassigned them to the bullpen, whatever it took to win.

With Clemens in 2003, I just see a world of difference. The Red Sox were up 4-0 when Clemens got pulled, in an inning that went HR/BB/single--and it’s G7, not G1. And they’re facing Pedro Martinez. Verlander squandered a lead, but he was never behind. And it’s G1. (I want to go all Allen Iverson here with those four words.)

Former Cy Young winner Barry Zito was already eight years removed from his Cy in 2010--he was hardly the same pitcher by then--and former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy was seven years removed from his; I don’t think they make very good analogies for Verlander, who’s going to win the Cy Young this year (and never mind the totality of their careers). And for what it’s worth, Peavy gave up 4 runs in 5 innings in his first WS start in 2014--almost identical to Verlander--and in his second, he gave up 6 runs in 1.1 innings. I don’t see a quicker hook there in either game.

The Tim Lincecum of 2010 (but not 2012 or 2014) is a much better comparison for Verlander--he didn’t win the Cy, but he finished 10th and was coming off two in a row.

Lincecum started two games in the 2010 Series. In the first (a G1), he gave up 4 runs in 5.2 IP--again, very similar to Verlander. In the second start, with the Giants up 3 games to 1, he pitched exceptionally well and completed 8 innings. I don’t know where the quick hook is there, either.

I can’t win this argument, because everybody already knows the answer: Verlander gave up two more runs. (Nobody posted as it was happening, just the next day.) Sometimes good decisions blow up, and sometimes bad ones work out. But even after this one blew up, it’s 5-5 with both starters out. Houston should still win that game. I put most of the blame on Verlander, and a little bit on the offense that didn’t score a run in the next four innings. I don’t blame Baker at all for G1.

I blame Baker almost totally for G3.

(Yes, I do have the game on right now.)

i'm not sure i want to cosign your post, but i agree that verlander deserved more leeway in game one than mccullers did in game three

but that's mostly due to mccullers deserving none at all

I wasn't making an exact analogy, I was saying that those winning managers understood (when many of their peers didn't) that playoffs aren't like the regular season, and require different strategies for pitchers. I think we're in agreement here! That was the lesson of the Pedro-Grady Little game, Little was sentimental about his SP ("Pedro's my guy!") instead of ensuring that they won the game. And I think that's what happened with Dusty and Verlander in Game 1.

To expand on that, it's part sentimentality and expectation, going into the game, I'm sure Dusty envisioned that Verlander could give him six or seven strong innings. When he was strong in the first three innings, it only reinforced that point in Dusty's mind. Then Verlander got into trouble and Dusty didn't alter his mindset quickly enough. Bochy, for instance, to his credit, rarely fell into that trap.

Which team would be willing to roster him

most of them?

Has he ever looked worse?

0-3, 6.93 ERA, 39 avg GameScore over last 5 starts against mostly <.500 teams.

Feel like he looks worse every start, maybe he’s not recovering as well as he used to after games

I get this mental image of him, Scherzer, and Kershaw limping to the finish line, waiting to see which one falls down first and withdraws from the race.

The Dodgers want Kershaw to be back and ready for the playoffs. If they need him...good luck, L.A.

I've never seen a more cursed starting rotation predictable outcome.

Has Scherzer been sighted at all? I know DeGrom was throwing quite recently

Verlander struggling since return from IL, only 71 ip for season, so Mets off the hook for $17 mil in '25. Scherzer on IL again, only 39 ip. Cohen's decision to eat money/move on from both last year paved the way for '24 success, with Stearns' smart signings of Severino/Manaea.

— John Harper (@NYNJHarper) September 3, 2024

I was going to include deGrom in that group, but I read he's pitching well in the minors--the finish line still seems a ways down the road for him (unless he just suddenly decides it isn't worth it anymore). Scherzer, not sure what's going on.

Verlander and Scherzer tied as the active leaders in strikeouts with 3,405 (in 3,397 and 2,874 IP, respectively)

(xpost) "Worth it" in terms of what he puts his body through, I should say--obviously, it's really worth it in other ways.

In deGrom's last 254.2 IP (2020-2023), which at one point might've been a not atypical number for a starting pitcher --

397 Ks, 0.734 whip, 192 ERA+, 2.12 ERA

no amount of flashy stats can combat how frustrated all of us are to not see him pitch in his prime

Otm

no amount of flashy stats can combat how frustrated all of us are to not see him pitch in his prime

Casas stood at his locker inside the visitors' clubhouse, preparing for an interview following the Sox's crucial series-clinching win against the Astros. A clubhouse attendant approached Casas's area, gathering his game-worn gray New Balance cleats, packing the first baseman's bag as the team prepared to head back to Boston.

"Excuse me, don't take those please," Casas said to the clubbie.
Casas turned the cleats around, showing that they had been authenticated.
Why?
"(Those are the cleats worn)on my Justin
Verlander hit,' Casas said.

no amount of flashy stats can combat how frustrated all of us are to not see him pitch in his prime

― Michael F Gill, Tuesday, September 3, 2024 5:22 PM (yesterday)

I feel like I just got carded at the bodega.

It may hurt more as a Mets fan.

yikes, just when you thought he couldn't look worse...

That's got to be one of his half-dozen worst starts ever.

Thread title delivers: Verlander uses his wife’s zoom account to attend a presser, a journalist (not on mute!) points this out. Absolutely embarrassing

Being accidentally unmuted in 2025 is crazy https://t.co/VuOC8WmHjb pic.twitter.com/YvWkdYNKGi

— dylan (@sfgsalsa) January 13, 2025

i'm willing to believe Verlander might overperform expectations in 2025, he was "okay" in the first half of 2024 and maybe he'll be reasonably effective coming off a healthy offseason. he missed two months and was terrible after that, so maybe there's some reason for slight optimism that he'll have his shit together for SF. I'm not drafting him for my fantasy team again though...

It helps that he’ll be playing half his games in SF.

if i went to SF as a pitcher I think I could break out with an ERA in the low 4s and my fastball reaches maybe 50.

yeah no, he looked good in a couple ST games

Thinking it might really be time to hang it up. The Giants in the WC mix probably makes him want to hang on, but I don't know, would he be automatic for a post-season roster--does his salary guarantee that? An SI piece about his "historic bad luck" has this:

According to OptaSTATS, there have been 4,200 starting pitchers who have entered the All-Star break with at least 65 strikeouts since the All-Star Game was established in 1933. Verlander is the only one who went into the break without a win.

That aside, he's hardly pitching well.

https://i.imgur.com/aRpOYw0.png
-0.5 bWAR
+0.7 fWAR

as an aside: fWAR seems broken as it has Jordan Hicks @ +0.6 fWAR and he is/was the worst starter in MLB... also there are ZERO qualified pitchers with a negative fWAR this season. perhaps 1.0 fWAR is true replacement level?

That aside, he's hardly pitching well.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 10, 2025 9:00 AM (twenty-nine minutes ago)

you can just say he sucks... it's okay.

Or if something suggests that might be a simplification, I could just say it's broken.

also there are ZERO qualified pitchers with a negative fWAR this season. perhaps 1.0 fWAR is true replacement level?

― imperial frfr (Steve Shasta), Thursday, July 10, 2025 9:29 AM (three days ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is an interesting observation I hadn’t noticed before, but there actually hasn’t been a negative fWAR qualified starting pitcher since Marco Gonzales put up/down -0.1 in 2022. I think the explanation is pretty straightforward: only somewhere between 40-60 pitchers qualify for the ERA title every year, or fewer than 2 per team, so if you’re really an AAAA type arm you’re going to end up shuffling between levels and getting platooned a lot, and aren’t going to be able to pitch enough innings to accumulate negative value

The good: 10th pitcher to hit 3,500 strikeouts.
The bad: 5 runs in 5 innings, another loss.

(If you don't like him, feel free to reverse that.)

Actually, Scherzer's only 44 away from 3,500. Seven or eight more starts (if he stays healthy)...going to be close. I could see him falling short and not make it back next year.

Will he still be around in May? 3.2 IP, five runs. When the end comes, it'll probably come quickly. (Not sure of the Tigers' schedule, but I'm surprised they didn't work it so his first start was at home.)