2018 awards thread

The NL Cy is close enough that it comes down the last five or six starts. Predicting a winner now is pointless.

But we’re going to do it anyways and I choose Scherzer!

bWAR thru yesterday:

Nola 8.9
Scherzer 8.0
deGrom 7.5

fWAR:

deGrom 6.9
Scherzer 6.0
Nola 5.4

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, August 24, 2018 7:31 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

very bizarre

Jeff: I know the basic difference of ERA vs FIP for Pitcher WAR between bbref and Fangraphs, but my question is why at the top of the leaderboards is bWAR higher than fWAR I.e. Nola 8.7 vs 5.4, Scherzer etc.

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: fWAR basically regresses every pitcher to a standard ball-in-play baseline. bWAR is unregressed in that way, making it easier to run a high number

The best thing I ever read on the difference was something Posnanski wrote comparing Pedro's 1999 and 2000 seasons. Fangraphs preferred one, Baseball Reference the other, and it basically came down to the difference between what should have happened and what did happen. And he argued both sides in a way that made perfect sense.

Kluber koughed up five runs vs KC yesterday. Getting very interesting there...i guess it depends on Sale’s return but Blake Snell(!) is looking like a competitor too.

Repeat of last week: Scherzer-Nola, with deGrom against the Cubs. Very reminiscent of Arrieta, Greinke, and Kershaw in 2015.

Nola winning this matchup thus far. DeGrom in a nice duel with Hamels.

it might be reminiscent of 3 years ago if i could remember what happened then

speaking of past awards controversies, it'll be interesting to see what happens with the AL MVP if JD Martinez wins the triple crown (he's currently leading in BA (.337, betts at .336) and RBIs (110), and a close second to Khris Davis (38 to 39). but by fWAR he's 7th in the AL, far behind betts, ramirez, and trout (by bWAR he's 8th)

Betts is clearly the best player on that team. i think there's been enough erosion in Dinosaurland to make Martinez doubtful.

deGrom 8 IP, 1 ER in a tie game

he's allowed 11 ER in 11 no-decisions this season, for an ERA of 1.41 (along w/90 K in 70.1 IP, WHIP around 0.95...etc)

Has a Cy Young winner ever finished with a losing record?

Closest I can come up with is King Felix @ 13-12 in 2010?

Eric Gagné

Ooh, that's one to keep in the back pocket.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/harrison-bader-rookie-of-the-year/

and i'm not sure he's even the best rookie cardinal outfielder (tyler o'neill is the broiest bro of broberg, bro, but he's also a weightlifter bro)

have Bader's golden locks made him a matinee idol?

Paul DeJong much foxier imho

Tyler O'Neill plays the Mozart

https://www.instagram.com/p/bAsnWWza3v/

I think this is less surprising in a *Canadian* weightlifter.

i want bader's locks to go full-on colby rasmus. let them flow, and let the people see them flow!

ok, i just tried to do a rough simulation and it came out looking like jaso, so nevermind

https://i.imgur.com/QWtvjmG.jpg

also i don't know how hair works.

bader just looks like a stereotypical '80s movie preppie asshole, especially when he rocks this look

no idea on AL Cy now. I had typed out a ranking will Snell at the top, but I'm not sure. His IP numbers are pretty low, and Kluber has been coming on very strong and might get to 20 wins (as could Snell, admittedly.) bWAR has Kluber 3rd in the AL behind Sale and Snell, and fWAR has him 5th behind Sale, Bauer, Cole, and Verlander (with Snell down in 9th behind Severino, Carrasco, and Clevinger.)

Sale would have to come back and really put up some numbers to move back up to the top i think, and while I'm sure he will perform well I'm not sure Boston will ride him very hard at the end with things getting increasingly locked up.

Verlander finished great last year, as did Kluber.

Gonna be a close one!!!

Sale's clearly the best pitcher in the league, so too bad that he probably won't win now. I'd say that Kluber's the default choice, but except for IP, Snell's line is awesome.

Sale currently still leads both versions of WAR among AL pitchers. A starter might well win a Cy with < 162 IP soon. Sale's at 146 and presumably will make a start or two this month.

You'll be able to spot the most sabermetric NL MVP voters because they will have some combo of Scherzer, deGrom and Nola at the top of their ballots. (Because those are almost certainly the best players in the league.)

also, it's not clear Kluber has been the best pitcher on the Indians.

yeah obv that rotation is an embarrassment of riches, Kluber's probably the best pitcher overall but as far as which one of those guys has been having the best 2018, it's another story.

Boston's method of handling Sale the rest of the way seems to indicate he may only get up to 5 IP per start for his final outing, which is pretty wise but i think it really does bring down his Cy chances, only bc of voter perception. i agree w/you on principle, assuming you believe he *should* win as it stands right now.

wasn't it a pretty tight race before sale went out?

A starter might well win a Cy with < 162 IP soon.

This technically already happened in 1984 with Rick Sutcliffe :) But seriously, I think you're right and it'll happen within the next five years or so.

Kluber has been great, but not as great as in his two Cy Young winning seasons, so it becomes mostly about those extra IP. Expect to see arguments like "if Sale pitched another 50 innings with a 7.50 ERA, then his ERA+ and WAR would equal Kluber's, so how could that possibly strengthen his case for the CY?"

Weird to see so many pitchers already over 200 K and only one of them within a solid quality start of getting to 200 IP.

NL Cy still a toss-up (combined WAR):

Scherzer - 16.3
deGrom - 15.8
Nola - 14.4

Scherzer's total is a little inflated because he's having a good year with the bat; in terms of just pitching, deGrom's a little ahead.

I mentioned this piece here or on another thread: Joe Posnanski looking at the two versions of WAR via Pedro Martinez's 1999 and 2000 seasons, and basically concluding that a combination of the two works best:

http://joeposnanski.com/at-war-with-pedro/

Jaffe on behalf of Sale:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-sales-abridged-cy-young-case/

Mets bumped deGrom bcz it looked like there could be rain delays yesterday. Might rain all day today; it there's a postponement tonight, it might eventually cost him a start.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/defense-contact-quality-and-the-nl-cy-young

A WPA argument for Goldschmidt:

http://www.mlb.com/news/paul-goldschmidt-making-strong-run-at-mvp/c-293875428

(Haven't read it yet, so I don't know if they're including pitchers in there.)

mets are indeed postponed

Being pushed back -- by rain -- from Sunday to Tuesday will probably cost Jacob deGrom a start. Possible solutions:

--an Oct. 1 makeup game, if the Mets end up with one of those
--deGrom starting on short rest for the season finale Sept. 30

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) September 10, 2018

feels like no one's talking about it but both betts and scherzer have an outside shot at an 11 rWAR season

just this minute i can't remember what rWAR is.

it's what baseball-reference WAR was called before everyone seemed to switch to bWAR

Being pushed back -- by rain -- from Sunday to Tuesday will probably cost Jacob deGrom a start. Possible solutions:

--an Oct. 1 makeup game, if the Mets end up with one of those
--deGrom starting on short rest for the season finale Sept. 30
— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) September 10, 2018

I heard there's a double header on Wednesday now?

yes. it's a 4-game series, thru Thursday.

To bWAR or rWAR, that is the question.

Kluber wound up not doing his part tonight. Verlander is pitching extremely well though.

Eye on the prize, Kluber will skip a start:

Francona said probables for Fri-Sun will be Tomlin, Clevinger, Bieber (in that order). It pushes Kluber back in order to align him better for playoffs.

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) September 11, 2018

DeGrom's now sporting a losing record... could be interesting for the old-timer voter.

he struck out 9 and ERA swelled to 1.71