Bryce Harper, catcher and Scott Boras advisee

6. Who is the most overrated player in the game?

Top result: Bryce Harper (48.6%)

Runners-up: Chris Davis (10.8%)

Also receiving multiple votes: Javier Báez

Notes: Even anonymously, just over half of the players we polled declined to answer this one — “It’s bad karma,” one said — but among those who did, this was a landslide. As one player told us, it’s not that Harper isn’t talented: “It’s more like guys are kind of tired of him being put up on this pedestal when from a consistency standpoint, he hasn’t sustained it.”

On Báez, one player said, “To a baseball player, a lot of the shit he does is really risky and stupid. When you play against him, you fucking hate watching him. But as a fan, I would want to watch him every single day. I get it.”

I can't think of anybody else you'd choose. When he's great, he's amazing. He spends a lot of time not being great. Eliminate 2015, and he's more like a underrated player whose walks and HRs add value to an otherwise average batting line.

yeah just those piddling walks and HRs

Excellent translation; that's exactly what I meant.

the point is those categories make up most of a valuable batting line.

(sure Harper's BA is bad this year, but if it was even .250 he'd be one of the 10 most valuable players in the NL)

And if he were hitting .250 and were the 10th most valuable player in the NL, that would probably make him the most overrated player in baseball in the context of how many people treat him as one of the two best (which I've done myself at times).

But he's hitting .214, so that's all speculation.

bref has him at 0.0 WAR this year; fangraphs at 1.5

they both hate his defense

didn't factor in the Will to Win

Harper's had the one HOF season and the other HOF 2/3 season. as far as the rest of the time, there's no shame in being near-peak Mickey Tettleton.

Which was exactly my point: "more like a underrated player whose walks and HRs add value to an otherwise average batting line"--i.e., Mickey Tettleton, an underrated player who hit .241 but drew a lot of walks and hit a fair number of HR (especially era-adjusted).

yeah I would not be thrilled to give him a 400M contract or whatever, but someone will

So are the Nats out on signing Harper or are they the leading contender?

no idea but i always assumed harper would want to play for bigger crowds in a bigger media market

But he's hitting .214, so that's all speculation.

― clemenza, Monday, July 16, 2018 3:46 PM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

That's what, 5 hits tho?

Not stanning really but *shrug*

12 hits right now--in 550 AB, it'd be 20. But if you want to approach the question from that angle, that a few hits don't matter much, then surely those few hits aren't going to move him from a 0.0 WAR to one of the 10 most valuable players in the NL.

I'm not sure if you're saying that he is or isn't overrated.

there are only so many teams that have or would spend the kind of money he wants. the yankees seem to have a pretty full outfield? they could put him at first, but greg bird is *also* hitting .214 this year, and at 1/40th of the cost. the red sox signed jd martinez last winter and have mookie eligible for arbitration this winter. (mookie, btw, is nine days older than harper and is 4.5 bWAR up on him in two fewer seasons.)

the cubs and giants already have $140m on the books for 2019, which doesn't count raises for people like baez and bryant. the dodgers could afford him, but seem relatively unlikely to offer a historic contract for a guy as inconsistent as harper has been.

maybe the phillies? except i'd expect the phillies to be more interested in machado, as should, perhaps, most teams

The outside club I was thinking is maybe the Rangers. They have dropped some cash on some hitters over the years.

I'm not sure if you're saying that he is or isn't overrated.

― clemenza, Monday, July 16, 2018 7:08 PM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Wasn’t really saying either. I think his BABIP is really weird this year. I find him fascinating tho also lol this HR derby he’s such a choad

He's 25. Most guys are enter their prime now. Maybe he's a year late.

If I had to bet on 2015 or this year being the more anomalous, I'd definitely bet on this year. The list of position players besides Harper who've put up 10-WAR seasons since the war: Yastrzemski, Bonds, Ripken, Mantle, Mays, Musial, Morgan, Williams, Yount, Boudreau, Banks, Trout, A-Rod, Sosa, Rosen, Petrocelli. That's a pretty formidable list. I think at worst he'll have a better career than the last two guys, and they were good. My guess would be that he exceeds his current career slash line (.277/.384/.510) for the next several seasons. But again, I don't know who else you'd name as the most overrated player right now (or even based cumulatively on the last three seasons).

But again, I don't know who else you'd name as the most overrated player right now (or even based cumulatively on the last three seasons).

The DH for the Angels has made $24M/yr over the past 3 years while putting up a cumulative -1.1 WAR, and has batted exclusively in the 3rd/4th/5th spot in the lineup.

Pujols crossed my mind, but is there anyone who still rates him highly (except, I guess, the manager who continues to bat him 3rd/4th/5th)? I don't see overpaid and overrated as the same thing.

He was overrated by the Angels GM during the 2011 offseason

For a while I think Strasburg was a bit overrated, back when he still had some of that residual legendary buzz from his pre-injury days but was merely very good instead of elite.

But now I think he might actually be a bit underrated!

Probably a few such pieces out there at the moment:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/should_the_nationals_trade_bryce_harper/

Be forewarned: intangibles are discussed.

oh *bill*

Not BJ, Dave Fleming.

Homered in the first game today, .293/.419/.573 over the last 30 days. Doesn't suck.

that -3.3 dWAR on bWAR for 2018 is something else. wonder how legit that rating is; i wouldn't be surprised if he's not particularly good out there but that number is shockingly bad.

I know eye test doesn’t mean much but what I saw from him, this season, was just very bad.

mlbtraderumors predicts 14 years, $420M for harper

(13 years, $390M for Machado, for the same $30M AAV)

Will also be on the cover of the show 19

insane

what was wrong with his defense? Ben Lindbergh:

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/11/20/18104199/bryce-harper-free-agency-defense

some of those misplays are brutal

move him back to C! make the thread title relevant again!

getting easier to hate

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/03/26/bryce-harper-is-pandering-hard-to-philly-fans/

If he ever has a bad season they’re going to boo the fuck out of him

they booed Mike Schmidt in good seasons!

i'm sure that's true, but i think the fact that he *chose* them will go a long way

Bryce got a tad upset with the strike calls tonight

you can buy Bryce's pomade

https://www.amazon.com/stores/page/7FD8ED49-CB2F-4406-A326-54374A7DE0F8/

Bryce takes Hunter Strickland deep again. pic.twitter.com/hOFRO31tPi

— Jamal Collier (@JamalCollier) September 25, 2019

Dan Shulman, on a Toronto call-in this morning, called Harper a really, really talented player who ranks about #15-20 across both leagues. Sounds about right. (Except in April, when he leaps to the front of the class.)

WAR: it adds up over time. Harper was looking pretty poor earlier this year, but his second half has bailed him out somewhat overall, even if this is a bit of an off season by expectations.

#15-20 is a little optimistic

Seeing as there are as many as eight Astros/Red Sox players who'd rank ahead of him--Altuve, Bregman, Betts, and Bogarts for sure; Springer and Correa probably; Devers and Alvarez maybe; I'd add Martinez, too, if not for the age difference--you're probably right.

Yelich has more or less the same WAR as Harper with 500 less PA.

Speaking of Fred Lynn (I was, the other day, on the Juan Soto thread)...Is Harper Fred Lynn? Harper had a three-year jump age-wise, but through nine seasons, they're pretty close:

BH: 138 OPS+, 33.4 WAR
FL: 137 OPS+, 36.9 WAR

Two monster seasons each, although Harper's 2017 was injury-shortened; ROY both, one MVP each. (Lynn should have won a second in '79, an infamously terrible vote.)