aaron judge needs his own thread

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week;

Is '17 considered his age-21 or age-22 season?

21

Judge is probably ending any chance of Harper going to the Yankees so far that I enjoy him.

Fangraphs had a piece on this 10 days ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-or-cody-bellinger/

They don't really come down on either side. Their last sentence is good:

"And that’s the simple fact that may push some to pick the Dodgers’ first baseman: those three years of catchup that Bellinger has on Judge are very valuable. Even if it looks like just a couple ticks of strikeout rate, a few more walks, and maybe a little better work in the field, it will all add up.

Consider this, though: it might all add up...so that Cody Bellinger is about the same as we’re seeing from Aaron Judge, right now."

or he might be Puig.

puig was never this good!

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 1:30 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

insert albert pujols age joke here

ryan braun another guy who 4-digit OPSed his rookie season though he was 23

insert albert pujols age joke here

― ciderpress, Friday, July 7, 2017 11:13 AM (sixteen minutes ago)

Better age 37 OPS: Albert Pujols or Craig Counsell?

pretty decent chance Albert's career WAR drops below 100 this season. also damn it's extremely possible that Counsell will win that battle having hit .226 with 1 HR that season.

albert should retire immediately and lock in that 100 before he loses it

puig was never this good!

― k3vin k., Friday, July 7, 2017 1:44 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

#WIGS

Can we please add intra-ilx tagging

30

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

^^oh yeah fair, i thought we were comparing judge to puig

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/charbjo01.shtml

roll me over romeo

the rookie record is mcgwire with 49 btw O_O

lol, judge at home run derby is indeed quite the show.

absurd

sheesh

The 500-footers were amazing but the several pop-ups that just happened to go out were too.

None of this is shit compared to the warning-track power Livan Hernandez just displayed in the softball game, though.

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:30 AM (six days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Paul Goldschmidt probably fits the bill. Judge was a Top 100 prospect though, which Goldschmidt never was.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9218&position=1B

Judge vs. Newton:

http://www.si.com/mlb/2017/07/13/yankees-aaron-judge-home-run-derby-roof-nasa

(Goldschmidt's pretty good, although he was dominant every stop of the way in the minors.)

What age did Josh Hamilton make his MLB debut?

Unique circumstances, obviously, but Hamilton debuted at 26 (and had his first big season at 27), so there's some relation there.

No one's mentioned him, but to me, the most cautionary parallel might be Ryan Howard. I know Howard's viewed as a joke now, but he came up at 24, got in half a season at 25--both partial seasons were strong--and at 26 he hit 58 HR with a slash line of .313/.425/.659. Even after adjustments (OPS+ = 167), it was a phenomenal year.

I'm not saying Aaron Judge is Ryan Howard, and there are lots of cautionary parallels for Bellinger, too. But that might be the downside (and Howard did get in five good years).

Last night, Aaron Judge struck out in his 36th consecutive game, breaking an ignominious single-season record previously held by pitcher Bill Stoneman in 1971. Adam Dunn fanned in 36 consecutive games between the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

'unstoppable'

we're all told not to reveal how we're voting for AL rookie of the year but I will say when I write my article you can feel free to skip it

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) September 25, 2017

49, tying mcgwire

resumed being unstoppable.

.301/.438/.863 in Sept

might win him points with the Strong Finish demo

as of yesterday both Judge and McGwire had achieved an OPS+ of 164 in their rookie year. not sure how the metrics would bear out but Judge's season looks a bit more impressive right now -- they're very, very similar but AJ has scored 122 runs to McGwire's 97, and walked 119 times to McGwire's 71. I guess there's also the 1987 thing to take into account, but of course 2017 seems like a 1987 type season so idk.

isn't OPS+ relative to the league/year?

yeah

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKl7vNtW4AAI8Iu.jpg:small

awesome, hope he goes on to make a billion dollars

Heard this morning he's the sixth 50-HR/120-BB guy (arbitrary cut-offs, I know)...Bonds, Ruth, Foxx for sure; my other two guesses would be McGwire and Thome.

Wasn't sure about the last spot, but that's it; Thome had a 52-122 season, Sosa 64-116. McGwire was walking more than I'd remembered--162 the year he hit 70.

not ted williams?

huh, forgot he only hit 40 homers in a season once

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/aaron-judge-was-amazing-aaron-judge-was-a-bum-now-hes-amazing-again/

On that list of greatest rookie seasons, I've never even heard of Benny Kauff (#5).

Corey: Now that we seen the best and worst of Judge in a 13 month span (twice), any expectations for what his baseline will be?
12:30
Dave Cameron: Stanton with more walks.
12:30
Dave Cameron: A top-3 MLB hitter, basically.
12:30
Troutmaggedon: If you were building a team would you rather have Bellinger or Judge going forward?
12:31
Dave Cameron: Judge

Co-sign. Of all the athletes I’ve ever interviewed or featured, Judge is in the top echelon as far as being a quality human being https://t.co/HmyLhLF53F

— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) October 19, 2017

when writers badmouth players i always take it with a grain of salt -- could be nothing more than 'he wasn't talkative/didn't give me the quotes i needed to make my story good' -- but when they're praising you as a person you might be doing something right

Michael Baumann on today's Ringer podcast (in the middle of a beautiful 10-minute anti-"plucky"-Yankees rant): Judge is "as bland and boring as Derek Jeter."

cartilage cleanup!

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/aaron-judge-shoulder-surgery-monday-yankees-announce-article-1.3648991

Judge winning out in the unofficial competition against Bellinger once again.

insane he actually has a chance at getting back to .400

he’s been hovering in the .390s for like 2 weeks

if he hits .400 I will buy you all a round

if you come to NYC

tbh I'll do that even if he doesn't

(not you, calstars)

I still think it's impossible over a full season but the guy very much is built different, him and Ohtani both feel like freaks of nature

mookie where are you in NYC? was just in town last week?

fat fingers on that second question mark

carroll gardens BK! although i don't get out much

Posnanski today:

We probably should be talking a lot more about the fact that Aaron Judge is still hitting .396. I mean, yes, we all know that he’s not going to hit .400, nobody can hit .400 in today’s game, not when mortal baseball players are hitting .240 or so as a group, not when teams march out their droid armies of 100-mph fastball relievers, it’s not possible.

But what if he did? I mean ... WHAT IF HE DID?

I mean, we’re 65 games into the season now. That’s not nothing. The weather is warming up. Judge likes warm weather. Last year, he hit .409 in June and .390 in August.

WHAT ... IF ... HE ... DID?

If Aaron Judge hits .400, it will be ...

... the single greatest batting achievement in the history of baseball.

That’s right. It will be a greater achievement than Babe Ruth out-homering every other team. It will be a greater achievement than Ted Williams going 6-for-8 on the last day to secure his .400 average. It will be a greater achievement than Barry Bonds being intentionally walked 120 times in a season.

We know he won’t do it. Nobody can hit .400 ... and that’s especially true of a guy who will probably strike out 160 or more times.

BUT MY GOSH, WHAT IF HE DID?

Honestly, if he finishes .350 or higher, that'll be phenomenal. (I estimate he'd have to hit .320 the rest of the way.)

slow news day eh posnanski

Golden Sombrero with a side of GIDP. He's down to .372

it’s sombrero season

he’s in a slump, 3 for his last 24 with a ton of Ks

Ruth is miles ahead of everyone on that JAWS list but everything pre-integration deserves an asterisk. By the end of the season Judge will be 4th in WAR7 and nearly in the Musial/Aaron inner-inner circle tier. Unreal.

He does this for a few weeks every year. NYY usually goes on like a 2-12 jag lol

Maybe James' Power/Speed formula--2 x (HR x SB)/(SB +HR)--could somehow be applied to HR/Avg. to get the greatest combination ever. I don't know--those are both counting stats, here you'd be combining a counting stat with a rate stat. First two that come to mind: Ruth in '21 (59/.378) and Bonds in '02 (46/.370). Judge right now projects to 59/.372.

Williams '41: 37/.406
Mantle '56: 52/.353

Speed of sound: 13 more HR and he passes DiMaggio (who did, it should be mentioned, lose three seasons to the war) for fourth on the all-time Yankee list.

how many seasons did Judge lose to greedy years-of-control contract manipulation by Yankees brass?

Judge's 1st full year season:
.284/.422/.627/1.049
8.1 bWAR 8.8 fWAR

Judge elbow injury?

https://www.mlb.com/news/aaron-judge-not-in-lineup-vs-phillies.html

Iirc he should still be able to hit with this, Ohtani did for the Angels in 2023 before getting Tommy John as soon as the season ended. If it’s an actual tear he could get a brace procedure but like…what do they do with Stanton

404'd

https://www.mlb.com/news/aaron-judge-not-in-lineup-vs-phillies

Ty

I was looking to see if something happened at the ASG (.160/.267/.400 since) but it looks like it was about a week prior (7/9) to when he cooled down.

He'd been healthy for soooo long as well.

Flexor strain