HOT STOVE LEAGUE 2K4/2K5

I can't see any way the Braves would deal Andruw Jones for Kevin Brown, especially considering Brown is around age 40 and played like a duffer last season and during the playoffs.

"Soriano, aka Juan Samuel II"

Interesting and apt comparison.

Boras is smoking rope on some of these deals he is fishing out there.

(aka Renteria's wallet)

Jim Bowden = ???? Didn't anyone tell him that both Vinny & Guzman are the bottom of the barrel at their respective positions this free agent season, and that he could probably get equal production from cheaper folk and / or sign those two for less money after everyone else filled their left infield needs? You'd think his many months working for ESPN would've taught him SOMETHING.

http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/20702.htm

xpost - did R. Kelly sleep with his ex-chef, though?

Yeah, why would Pavano suck in the AL, Yanc? (Pro Player has been a strong pitcher park; Pavano was still one of the 4-5 best in the NL last year, neutrally speaking.)

Mrs Sheff's adventures with R predated her trophy-wifery.

as for kelly/sheff -- i don't care if it happened long after i was dead, i would not want a tape of my wife grooving on kelly's no-cry-shampoo scented cock. talk about being shamed!

She is 28 years old and the incident happened "more than 10 years ago".

Also note - he's only 28! (I just did a quick PECOTA check, & hoped to find Tom Glavine's name on his list, but no dice. HOWEVER, 1998's Jon Lieber (link!) is #3 on his list of comparables.)

They better make RFK into Shibe Park or the Polo Grounds. With a water-slide in the field of play. And mascots (filibusters!) running onto the field at random times to interfere with balls in play.

i'd guess the nl-to-al thing is 90% conventional wisdom, but i'll leave that to morbius.

chances are his era will be closer to 4.30 than 3.00, but in b/w the two, agreed?

If I'm reading the charts right, CP's bullpen support was among the worst (3.63) in '03 and decent (-0.83) this year:

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sp_pen_support2004.html

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sp_pen_support2003.html

Keep in mind Pavano's 2000 surgery meant he didn't have 30 (or even 25) starts in a year til 2003. Will Carroll, BP's injury guru, greenlights him:

"Carl Pavano (GREEN) - Here's a test case for pitchers. Pavano never pitched more than 136 innings before age 27, then jumped up to the 200-inning mark in his next two seasons. He pitched for a World Series winner, then got better the next season. He has a classic pitcher's frame, good mechanics, and everything but a strikeout pitch. If BP built a pitcher, Frankenstein-style, there'd be some Pavano parts in the mix. You have to be damned good to dump Alyssa Milano. (prediction: Orioles)"

The full Carroll free-agent report (non-premium!):

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3622

Kent has been healthy even as he's aged, assuming he can be kept away from "car washes." (Cubs)

Views
The Tigers now have two closers. They recently picked up the $4-million option on Ugueth Urbina's contract for 2005. You can expect they will be asked about this at their upcoming press conference; it's quite possible Urbina will be traded at baseball's winter meetings. Percival was reportedly being pursued by up to 12 teams, most notably the Indians, who will now likely focus their attention on landing free agent Armando Benitez as consolation. Percival's fantasy value will suffer a little in Detroit, as he will have fewer save opportunities than he's had in Anaheim, but will be pitching in a better pitcher's ballpark. The main concern with the 35-year-old Percival remains his health, as he has battled various ailments the last couple years and is certainly past his prime.

Vizquel made $6.25M in 04, he will make $4.08M in 05 (-35%)
Percival made $7.8M in 04, and will make $6M in 05 (-23%)

Those are some pretty significant pay decreases which do not look out of line for guys in their mid-30s who can still play reasonably well.

Vizquel: $15M/2yrs : $12.25/3 yrs = -45%
Percival: $16M/2yrs : $12M/2 yrs = -25%

http://www.movieactors.com/photos-sf/cocoon.jpeg

Beltran won't come to Chicago, I know there is some delusional thinking that it might happen, but I don't see it happening. Major free agent stars don't decide to play for either Chicago teams, it just doesn't happen.

I do think Jeff Kent might end up a Cub. Nomar won't be back, but I could see Chicago going after Cabrera, especially if they get Kent. They really need another left handed bat, but neither of these guys are one, so that trade for Sosa for Green could be good. I still have a feeling Sammy will be playing for the Cubs next season.

The Giants need to get with the stick and sign Moises Alou to complete the ancient ones.