Go Jays.
― Andy K, Monday, 3 October 2016 02:18 (seven years ago) link
Rooting O's, think Jays will probably win. Machado has been ice cold lately.
― Immediate Follower (NA), Monday, 3 October 2016 02:37 (seven years ago) link
I know AL baseball even less than usual this year.
― earlnash, Monday, 3 October 2016 03:14 (seven years ago) link
Not sure if I'm confident or not. First wild card game ever for the Jays--if I'm counting right, one of the last seven teams who've never played one.
― clemenza, Monday, 3 October 2016 03:41 (seven years ago) link
Reddit is calling it "bird bowl". I like it.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 3 October 2016 03:42 (seven years ago) link
c'mon O's. My team as a kid when I lived in Maryland, then my family moved to Seattle, so I've doubled the futility.
― JoeStork, Monday, 3 October 2016 03:45 (seven years ago) link
Tillman starts I guess?
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 3 October 2016 03:45 (seven years ago) link
Stroman's scheduled for the Jays, but maybe it's more like Stroman/Liriano/Estrada as one starter for the first seven innings.
― clemenza, Monday, 3 October 2016 03:57 (seven years ago) link
that's a nutty fun fact. the O's are the first AL team to play in a second WC game.
― qualx, Monday, 3 October 2016 04:00 (seven years ago) link
The Yankees and Red Sox have 12 between them:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_League_Wild_Card_winners
― clemenza, Monday, 3 October 2016 04:07 (seven years ago) link
I see what you mean--I goofed.
― clemenza, Monday, 3 October 2016 04:08 (seven years ago) link
Which also invalidates what I said above...what I meant was that the Jays are one of the last seven A.L. teams to go into the playoffs as a wild card team.
― clemenza, Monday, 3 October 2016 04:10 (seven years ago) link
I wanna beat down the Rangers in the playoffs so bad.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 3 October 2016 06:10 (seven years ago) link
Don't know how accurate these stats are (or whether they're career or just this season), but according to the Fan this morning, the guy whose turn it is, Stroman, gets belted by the Orioles--ERA over 8.00. Off the guy who'd be on short rest, Estrada, Baltimore's hitting .177. And Liriano (who'd have an extra day of rest) was great against them last week, but overall the Orioles are hitting over .300 against him.
Have a feeling they'll go with Estrada and bring in one of the other two the first time Baltimore clogs up the bases.
― clemenza, Monday, 3 October 2016 11:52 (seven years ago) link
I'd expect Estrada.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 3 October 2016 13:50 (seven years ago) link
Tillman on the hill for Baltimore
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 3 October 2016 19:43 (seven years ago) link
i guess Estrada is a no-go on three days rest... so either Liriano or Stroman.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 3 October 2016 19:46 (seven years ago) link
it's stroman
― mookieproof, Monday, 3 October 2016 19:48 (seven years ago) link
fuck. i like Stro – don't get me wrong. but... fuck.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 3 October 2016 20:14 (seven years ago) link
The offense had better show up tomorrow.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 3 October 2016 20:18 (seven years ago) link
kinda rooting for a 17-inning, 14-13 game won by a position player pitching
― mookieproof, Monday, 3 October 2016 20:21 (seven years ago) link
It could be Chris Davis's second extra-inning win!
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 3 October 2016 20:21 (seven years ago) link
kinda hard not to root for a Tex-Tor rematch given last year's insanity
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Monday, 3 October 2016 20:25 (seven years ago) link
would love a Chris Davis / Ryan Goins pitching match-up!
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 3 October 2016 20:42 (seven years ago) link
https://twitter.com/bychrisblack/status/782974191888920576Key Orioles Career vs Stroman:Trumbo 5-11 (.455)Kim 3-7 (.429)Jones 6-15 (.400)Wieters 5-14 (.357), 2 HRDavis 4-13 (.308)
º~º
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 3 October 2016 21:15 (seven years ago) link
i may join the voices calling for Gibby's head if we lose this one.
Not crazy about this decision--irrational loyalty has gotten a lot of managers into a lot of trouble.
― clemenza, Monday, 3 October 2016 21:24 (seven years ago) link
These are all small sample sizes you guys. If we lose it'll be because Stroman hasn't been consistent all season against anyone. Estrada in the second half has been unpredictable too, and on short rest I like his chances even less. It'll be all hands on deck and I expect two or three starting pitchers to be in the game before handing it off to whatever passes for a bullpen.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 3 October 2016 21:32 (seven years ago) link
That's how I'm trying to think of it too--that whoever starts, he probably won't be left in long enough to fall more than a couple of runs behind anyway.
― clemenza, Monday, 3 October 2016 21:35 (seven years ago) link
Guys guys guys, don't you know Stroman is a big game performer?
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 3 October 2016 22:09 (seven years ago) link
To be fair to Stroman, he has been a better pitcher than Tillman and he plays at home. I'd be more concerned with the bullpen, heck I'm rooting for the Jays for this game, I am more concerned with the bullpen.
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 3 October 2016 22:12 (seven years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.
― System, Tuesday, 4 October 2016 00:01 (seven years ago) link
Much ridicule on the radio this morning (from the awful Dean Blundell, so take it for what it's worth) over the idea that everyone was consulted on the Stroman start, including "the analytics guys." If true, you have to wonder what numbers they were looking at (or, more likely, if they lost the argument).
― clemenza, Tuesday, 4 October 2016 12:30 (seven years ago) link
Stroman is a ground ball pitcher pitching in front of a good defense vs a home run hitting team that can't run? It's not rocket science.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 4 October 2016 14:49 (seven years ago) link
ya, i concede there are good arguments for both. still would prefer Liriano on account of how lousy the O's are against lefties. but he'd be super valuable out of the pen as well instead of having to endure Loup/Cecil.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 4 October 2016 15:48 (seven years ago) link
(xpost) In theory, maybe, but they sure did belt him around this year...Anyway, the decision's made, and Liriano in long relief is a plus. Stroman's ability to get the crowd going could help too if he pitches even moderately well.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 4 October 2016 16:38 (seven years ago) link
Gleeman handicaps the game (i think all BP articles are free this week?)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30502
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 4 October 2016 16:47 (seven years ago) link
Everybody seems to think Toronto has the advantage in this game, and maybe they're right, but as an Orioles fan I have a good feeling about this game. I'd rather face the Blue Jays than the Tigers (though I might rather have faced the Tigers at home than the Blue Jays in Canada.)
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Tuesday, 4 October 2016 20:48 (seven years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.
― System, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 00:01 (seven years ago) link
Never realized how big Matt Sisters is playing catcher. He is huge.
― earlnash, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 00:27 (seven years ago) link
Spellcheck from Wieters...
― earlnash, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 00:28 (seven years ago) link
Bautista's a free agent at the end of the year! Gotta show up in the playoffs.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 00:34 (seven years ago) link
― mookieproof, Monday, October 3, 2016 4:21 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
oh don't even with the "kinda" you're rooting for this with every fiber of yr being
(it would be kinda amusing tbh)
― if young slothrop don't trust ya i'm gon' rhyme ya (slothroprhymes), Wednesday, 5 October 2016 00:35 (seven years ago) link
stroman looks p solid thus far
― if young slothrop don't trust ya i'm gon' rhyme ya (slothroprhymes), Wednesday, 5 October 2016 00:44 (seven years ago) link
holy crap i hate this ump
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 00:45 (seven years ago) link
I was just going to say: he's been consistent, but he sure is giving both pitchers a couple of inches on the low outside corner.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 00:52 (seven years ago) link
oh i'm not talking about his zone, just the sounds he makes
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 00:54 (seven years ago) link
i swear i never hear Ron Darling bring up this 'shutdown inning' crap on Mets games
and Ripken, what it means is Torre shoulda used Rivera the same way in big regular season games too
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 5 October 2016 00:56 (seven years ago) link
tfw you step away and come back to see manny hitting a HR but it's just goddamn midseason footage and he's not even at-bat
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 01:01 (seven years ago) link
really isn't enough talk about the chances of the benches clearing tonight
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 01:02 (seven years ago) link
huh
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 5 October 2016 03:55 (seven years ago) link
oh buck
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 03:55 (seven years ago) link
is he gonna give us the matt williams 'he's the closer'
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 03:56 (seven years ago) link
for buck's sakes
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 03:56 (seven years ago) link
"(Britton) was fine... We had some good options."
EEEEEDIOT
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 5 October 2016 03:59 (seven years ago) link
to be fair, britton should have been unavailable because he'd already pitched the ninth
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:00 (seven years ago) link
"nothing philosophical about it"
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:00 (seven years ago) link
Buck accepted death as envitable in do or die.
― earlnash, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:03 (seven years ago) link
people pinning this on "it wasn't a save situation" are wrong and dumb, buck really isn't that rigid with it
this was buck fucking up in a way that was totally uniquely buck.
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:10 (seven years ago) link
buck has this "this is unconventional but if you just believe in me it'll all work out" complex and it's always brilliant until it doesn't work out
he can be allergic to doing the most obvious thing
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:11 (seven years ago) link
https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/783517787595608064
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:12 (seven years ago) link
at no point in this season was i expecting francisco liriano to win the AL wild card game
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:13 (seven years ago) link
used to think it was his brilliant overmanaging and attention to detail but i'm pretty sure he just goes by feeling, and it didn't *feel* right to use britton then
he believes in orioles magic more than the fans they have left
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:13 (seven years ago) link
i honestly don't blame him for not using britton.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:14 (seven years ago) link
tho i am *incredibly* drunk right now
"No one has been pitching better for us than Ubaldo."
That is not an old Rockies quote.
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:15 (seven years ago) link
obviously! ;)
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:16 (seven years ago) link
Managers change their reliever usage patterns in postseason all the time, as we've seen. Maybe Showalter won't get to.
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Sunday, October 2, 2016 8:43 AM
obv i am not a sufficiently experienced Buckwatcher
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:18 (seven years ago) link
ubaldo held hitters to a .151/.229/.244 line over 35 innings since sept. 1, so it's not like he was a terrible choice
otoh he'd only made 8 appearances out of the bullpen in an 11-year career, and i'd be kinda surprised if many of them began with runners on the corners
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:20 (seven years ago) link
Zahn pointed out how much trouble Bautista has with Jiminez--understatement: 38 AB, .079/.222/.105. On the other hand, Encarnacion hadn't had much success either: 41 AB, .220/.360/.366.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:22 (seven years ago) link
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, October 5, 2016 12:18 AM (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
oh fuck off, i've explained in about 40 different ways that this isn't a pattern
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:39 (seven years ago) link
Yeah I think the decision came down to Britton vs Jimenez no matter what, save or no save, etc. It was still unforgivably the wrong decision and we all saw it coming. Perhaps the real mistake was to not ease up Jimenez and put him in the stretch right away.
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:53 (seven years ago) link
No, Jiminez came in with the bases empty, he gave up all three hits.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:56 (seven years ago) link
oh yeah that's right. well in that case, take him out. i don't know. it's even worse.
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:57 (seven years ago) link
It was right after Duensing was brought in to face (and retire) that lefty masher Carrera -- you definitely don't want that guy facing a righty from the sixth inning on.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:57 (seven years ago) link
the first two hits came so quickly it's easy to forget
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:58 (seven years ago) link
britton should've been in to face all three, and then the next three if need be
I like Carrera, he's just a weird guy to be playing matchups with in extra innings (regardless of whether your closer is available or not).
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 04:59 (seven years ago) link
as much as this is on buck, important to remember that the offense did literally nothing after stroman was taken out, and the jays don't even have a good pen
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 05:00 (seven years ago) link
Without checking, I wonder how much of that was in the NL when they were all different players (especially Bautista)? Trusting Zaun to use statistics correctly is like trusting kids with matches.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 05:07 (seven years ago) link
1 for 12 with 3 walks over the last 2 years, and the hit was a single. a few games where a healthy bautista sat. BVP numbers are worthless though.
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 05:13 (seven years ago) link
― qualx, Wednesday, October 5, 2016 12:10 AM (one hour ago)
i mean maybe but when you break it down that's what it comes down to. if it were a save situation he would have used britton. it wasn't so he didn't.
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 5 October 2016 05:26 (seven years ago) link
like there is a LITTLE room for being creative but showalter crossed that line a long time before that homer
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 5 October 2016 05:31 (seven years ago) link
that's... not what it comes down to. he considered britton at various points. he's used britton in non-save situations many times. you're apparently getting on him for... using him in save situations when they actually exist?
it was a horrible move but rigidity is not the issue at all
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 05:33 (seven years ago) link
like he could've been more rigid probably. rigid would've been using britton before ubaldo. i think even matheny would've used britton before that. 29 other managers would've used britton. showalter likes to get tricksy and it failed.
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 05:35 (seven years ago) link
Not sure why you'd say batter-pitcher stats are worthless (notwithstanding NoTime's point about the bulk of those numbers maybe going back to the NL, which is valid if true--don't know). If the sample size is large enough--and 38 AB is pretty decent--I'd want to know that as a manager, especially at the extremes. Clearly, Bautista does not hit Jiminez well.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 11:37 (seven years ago) link
I'm guessing 38 abs spread over years is about as worthless as it gets. it takes, what, 150 PAs for numbers to start stabilizing in the season, right? and that's at the low end. and I think it's just for pitchers.
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 12:33 (seven years ago) link
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-you-should-ignore-the-data/
Batter/Pitcher match-up data has been shown to have no predictive value. In The Book, Tango/Lichtman/Dolphin devote an entire chapter — Ch 6, “Mano a Mano” — to looking for evidence that previous results of specific batter/pitcher match-ups would predict future results in those same match-ups. It wasn’t there. Despite looking at the 30 most extreme examples of matched-pairs where the batter had dominated the pitcher over a three-year period, the group was barely better than average in the fourth season against those same pitchers. When looking at the flip side, where pitchers had dominated the hitters, the results were the same. Most interesting is that there was little difference in actual future performance by the 30 hitters who had dominated their rivals versus those who had been dominated by opposing pitchers. Even at the extremes, specific batter/pitcher data showed no real usefulness in projecting future results.
― qualx, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 12:36 (seven years ago) link
Thanks, I'll read that over tonight.
I don't know--intuitively, it just seems natural that batters would feel overmatched against certain pitchers (can't figure out their delivery, can't hit a certain pitch of theirs, etc.) and feel like others can't get the ball by them. (Don't tennis players play consistently better than expected against some opponents and consistently worse than expected against others? I don't know tennis that well.) In terms of projecting future results, maybe Bautista does indeed get a hit in that 39th AB--but maybe the data had done a good job predicting the results for AB 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, and 38. Not trying to be difficult or play devil's advocate; when the numbers are as bad as Bautista's are against Jiminez, I'd just rather have that match-up as a manager.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 12:56 (seven years ago) link
This might be instructive:
http://www.si.com/vault/1955/08/08/604885/the-question-who-is-or-was-the-hardest-pitcher-for-you-to-hit
I'm going to go through that tonight and see what these guys actually did against the pitchers they cite.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 5 October 2016 13:06 (seven years ago) link
gotcha qualx, not a pattern. mlb.com:
"On a certain level, it shouldn't be all that surprising that Showalter didn't use Britton. Like many managers, he has typically refused to put his closers into tie games on the road. Britton entered in a tie game away from home just once all season, which was against the Blue Jays on July 31, when he pitched the ninth and 10th innings of a 2-2 tie (Baltimore went on to win, 6-2, in 12 innings). And that was somewhat of an outlier as he hadn't pitched for five consecutive days before that."
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 5 October 2016 15:43 (seven years ago) link
And he looks like such a pleasant guy.
http://www.torontopolice.on.ca/newsreleases/36107
― clemenza, Thursday, 6 October 2016 00:30 (seven years ago) link
He actually looks like a younger Tim Kaine...
― clemenza, Thursday, 6 October 2016 00:32 (seven years ago) link
http://www.metronews.ca/news/toronto/2016/10/05/alleged-blue-jays-beer-thrower-identified-ken-pagan.html
― Andy K, Thursday, 6 October 2016 00:59 (seven years ago) link
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, October 5, 2016 11:43 AM (nine hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
wow, whopping sample size of 4 whole games
― qualx, Thursday, 6 October 2016 01:18 (seven years ago) link
lol let's see how Buck handles him for the next 20 years, i guess
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 6 October 2016 01:24 (seven years ago) link
But while Showalter stated in the postgame press conference that his decision wasn’t based on some philosophical issue, the 11th inning suggests differently. Because the only way you rationalize letting Jimenez face Edwin Encarnacion is if you’re dead set against using your closer in a tie game on the road.
Now, here’s the crazy part: no team in baseball history has ever had a better option for this specific situation than the 2016 Orioles....
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-craziest-part-of-showalters-crazy-decision/
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 6 October 2016 14:52 (seven years ago) link
https://twitter.com/CespedesBBQ/status/786987856740974592
― mookieproof, Friday, 14 October 2016 17:58 (seven years ago) link