Bryce Harper, catcher and Scott Boras advisee

didn't watch but yeah it looks like they did

well now

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/bryce-harper-mashes-longest-home-run-of-his-career-against-rockies-081716

on the mets broadcast the other day keith told a story abt going hiking in Arizona and by happenstance running into david segui. I guess segui had previously worked w Bryce as a hitting coach, but Bryce chose not to work w him this past offseason or yr or w/e and segui was like yeah and look now hes only hitting .230

batting average idiots

James has a piece up about Harper and fluke seasons--behind the paywall, though.

"Bryce Harper's 2015 season, if he never again has an outstanding season, would indeed qualify as the greatest fluke season of all time. However, for reasons I'll explain later, I think that's pretty unlikely. It is much more likely that he will have more great seasons coming up."

He doesn't include active players in his research, but he does say that "Ellsbury's (2011) season is now a very strong candidate to be described as the greatest fluke season in baseball history."

$21.6 M for next year, so no arb.

And he just won the game w/ a 2-run HR vs the Philths.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/19375559/bryce-harper-agrees-21625-million-deal-washington-nationals-2018-season

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bryce-harper-has-a-new-lower-gear/

Was watching that game for Scherzer and thought both HR, the second especially, were odd.

lol at 'bryce harper is four months younger than aaron judge'

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEYgFqvW0AApA-U.jpg

i don't know about that look bryce

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--TR03EHcf--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/etbij8bgntxw8xqbf9ja.gif

Same stylist as Joe Scarborough.

http://phildellio.tripod.com/bryce.jpg

http://www.mlb.com/images/1/0/6/241806106/071117_mlb_all_star_game_yadi_hair_flip_mid_002_yzgo43yk.gif

Harper was closer to a cycle tonight than the boxscore shows--HR, 3B, single, and another single where he was just thrown out trying for second (not in order--the almost-double was his second AB).

He and his wife have a food blog:

https://www.instagram.com/harp.eats/

If he has any sense of humour, there will be an upcoming trout post.

Bryce Harper turns 25 today.

Every single player better thru age 24 (born after 1900, who is eligible) is in HOF.https://t.co/1S0JfWLNYj

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) October 16, 2017

Sharp:
Tom Boswell thinks that this offseason's FA pricing means that Harper will be lucky to get 7/250 next year. How wrong is he, and why?

Jay Jaffe:
I think Harper can get into the $300 million range with a longer deal than that, but for as much as I love the kid's game, I'm also among those who believe that he has to put together a 2015-like season — healthy and dominant for 150sh games — to get there. Put that MVP season aside and he's averaged 3.6 WAR in his other years (it's better than that if you prorate, obvs), which is nice but hardly transcendent.

Here are the 10 lowest babip for a wrc+ 140 and + since 1913 (beginning of babip).

Maris, 1961, wrc+ 162 and babip of .209 !!!
McGwire, 1990, wrc+143 and babip of .243.
Bautista, 2010, wrc+ 163, and babip of .233.
Aaron, 1972, wrc+ 148 and babip of. 248.
Kiner, 1948, wrc+ 143 and babip of .236
Bautista, 2015, wrc+ 148 and babip of .237.
Killebrew, 1963, wrc+ 146 and babip of .237.

Then between the .240 and .250 range

Kiner, 1950, wrc+ 152 and babip of .242.
Thornton, 1978, wrc+ 150 and babip of .243.
Killebrew, 1969, wrc+ 173 and babip of .244

So far this season, Harper is at wrc+142 and babip of .192 (career .316). Even with some (possible) regression to the mean, he might join that bizarre and specific club. The thing is that all these aforementioned players had low career babip and not Harper.

Also, Maris' 1961 is just insane.

i've never really thought about it, but i guess that kind of high production / low babip is the trademark of a slugger that's hitting tons of towering fly balls, right? either they land over the fence for a HR, boosting their production but not increasing the babip since they don't count as "in play", or it's likely just a loud out. so it makes sense to see the other guys on that list.

harper's a different story, though. as you mentioned his career babip is .316, and his FB/GB/LD percentages are all around the same place as last year. he's pulling the ball a lot more? weird baseball luck?

OT, sorry, but is there a BABIP-like stat that includes HRs as well?

Yeah the list makes sense, these are the extremes of that trademark and it's fun to identify them but really what I wonder if Harper could become that type as he ages. Basically, he went from .369 to .264 back to .356. to the horror show he is in now. None of these players ever see-sawed the way Harper did, it might that no played ever did.

I think also walks/pitch selection might account in those numbers. For example, Kiner managed to be 16th in OBP that 1948 season, Bautista was 22nd and 11th respectively. Harper right now is at 18th.

Of course, Hank Aaron doesn't really belong to that group and in his case it's more about aging but having a great season than career long method of batting. 1972 he was 38, and over his final 5 seasons he was hovering around a babip of .240.

https://i.imgur.com/mcjYk30.png

We polled hundreds of players across MLB on a variety of subjects. Nearly half of them, granted anonymity, said Bryce Harper is the most overrated player in the game. https://t.co/DGgZt6h3EE

— Lindsey Adler (@lindseyadler) July 16, 2018

i wonder how many future teammates said so

6. Who is the most overrated player in the game?

Top result: Bryce Harper (48.6%)

Runners-up: Chris Davis (10.8%)

Also receiving multiple votes: Javier Báez

Notes: Even anonymously, just over half of the players we polled declined to answer this one — “It’s bad karma,” one said — but among those who did, this was a landslide. As one player told us, it’s not that Harper isn’t talented: “It’s more like guys are kind of tired of him being put up on this pedestal when from a consistency standpoint, he hasn’t sustained it.”

On Báez, one player said, “To a baseball player, a lot of the shit he does is really risky and stupid. When you play against him, you fucking hate watching him. But as a fan, I would want to watch him every single day. I get it.”

I can't think of anybody else you'd choose. When he's great, he's amazing. He spends a lot of time not being great. Eliminate 2015, and he's more like a underrated player whose walks and HRs add value to an otherwise average batting line.

yeah just those piddling walks and HRs

Excellent translation; that's exactly what I meant.

the point is those categories make up most of a valuable batting line.

(sure Harper's BA is bad this year, but if it was even .250 he'd be one of the 10 most valuable players in the NL)

And if he were hitting .250 and were the 10th most valuable player in the NL, that would probably make him the most overrated player in baseball in the context of how many people treat him as one of the two best (which I've done myself at times).

But he's hitting .214, so that's all speculation.

bref has him at 0.0 WAR this year; fangraphs at 1.5

they both hate his defense

didn't factor in the Will to Win

Harper's had the one HOF season and the other HOF 2/3 season. as far as the rest of the time, there's no shame in being near-peak Mickey Tettleton.

Which was exactly my point: "more like a underrated player whose walks and HRs add value to an otherwise average batting line"--i.e., Mickey Tettleton, an underrated player who hit .241 but drew a lot of walks and hit a fair number of HR (especially era-adjusted).

yeah I would not be thrilled to give him a 400M contract or whatever, but someone will

So are the Nats out on signing Harper or are they the leading contender?

no idea but i always assumed harper would want to play for bigger crowds in a bigger media market

But he's hitting .214, so that's all speculation.

― clemenza, Monday, July 16, 2018 3:46 PM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

That's what, 5 hits tho?

Not stanning really but *shrug*

12 hits right now--in 550 AB, it'd be 20. But if you want to approach the question from that angle, that a few hits don't matter much, then surely those few hits aren't going to move him from a 0.0 WAR to one of the 10 most valuable players in the NL.

I'm not sure if you're saying that he is or isn't overrated.

there are only so many teams that have or would spend the kind of money he wants. the yankees seem to have a pretty full outfield? they could put him at first, but greg bird is *also* hitting .214 this year, and at 1/40th of the cost. the red sox signed jd martinez last winter and have mookie eligible for arbitration this winter. (mookie, btw, is nine days older than harper and is 4.5 bWAR up on him in two fewer seasons.)

the cubs and giants already have $140m on the books for 2019, which doesn't count raises for people like baez and bryant. the dodgers could afford him, but seem relatively unlikely to offer a historic contract for a guy as inconsistent as harper has been.

maybe the phillies? except i'd expect the phillies to be more interested in machado, as should, perhaps, most teams

The outside club I was thinking is maybe the Rangers. They have dropped some cash on some hitters over the years.

I'm not sure if you're saying that he is or isn't overrated.

― clemenza, Monday, July 16, 2018 7:08 PM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Wasn’t really saying either. I think his BABIP is really weird this year. I find him fascinating tho also lol this HR derby he’s such a choad

He's 25. Most guys are enter their prime now. Maybe he's a year late.

If I had to bet on 2015 or this year being the more anomalous, I'd definitely bet on this year. The list of position players besides Harper who've put up 10-WAR seasons since the war: Yastrzemski, Bonds, Ripken, Mantle, Mays, Musial, Morgan, Williams, Yount, Boudreau, Banks, Trout, A-Rod, Sosa, Rosen, Petrocelli. That's a pretty formidable list. I think at worst he'll have a better career than the last two guys, and they were good. My guess would be that he exceeds his current career slash line (.277/.384/.510) for the next several seasons. But again, I don't know who else you'd name as the most overrated player right now (or even based cumulatively on the last three seasons).

But again, I don't know who else you'd name as the most overrated player right now (or even based cumulatively on the last three seasons).

The DH for the Angels has made $24M/yr over the past 3 years while putting up a cumulative -1.1 WAR, and has batted exclusively in the 3rd/4th/5th spot in the lineup.

Pujols crossed my mind, but is there anyone who still rates him highly (except, I guess, the manager who continues to bat him 3rd/4th/5th)? I don't see overpaid and overrated as the same thing.

He was overrated by the Angels GM during the 2011 offseason