Bryce Harper, catcher and Scott Boras advisee

his strikeout rate isn't up so it's more likely just a long BABIP slump than a change in skill/ability

his hard-hit rate is way down -- at 32% from 41%. his numbers are down across the board, it's definitely a real slump, not just some fluke. i'm sure he'll get back to his usual self tho

Harper's year was so phenomenal last year that I think the assumption for me and many others was that, even when you factor in the inevitable leveling off, he and Trout would still be at a comparable level for the next few years--Trout better some years, Harper better others. I don't think anyone expected this.

― clemenza, Tuesday, August 2, 2016 12:46 PM (15 minutes ago)

trout's gonna end up like mays, only winning a couple of MVPs when he easily could have about ten

his incredible 2015 aside bryce harper is more jason heyward than willie mays

Mays, career:             .302/.384/.557
Heyward, career:          .264/.349/.420
Harper, career - 2015:    .264/.358/.461

Not bad!

James's thoughts on Harper (second question down, before it disappears behind the paywall):

http://www.billjamesonline.com/hey_bill/#51013

(Even if you think sabermetrics has passed James by--I don't, but I think some of you do--one thing he's always good on is historical precedent.)

yeah, cash looks like a pretty great parallel. i would bet a lot of money that harper's career is gonna end up a lot better than his, though

Better, I'd agree, but once you adjust for era, Cash was actually really good. His career OPS+ of 139 would put him in a tie for 10th on the active list, behind only Trout, Pujols, Votto, Cabrera, Goldschmidt, Stanton, Braun, Ortiz, and A-Rod (Harper stands at 139 too, in fewer PA).

538 piece:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bryce-harper-has-gone-from-great-to-good/

I don't think I'll ever find exit velocity particularly interesting.

It's funny that everyone's trying to figure out how a batter with a .305 True Average this year got so 'bad' (which would be his 2nd best season, to last year's .386).

BP podcast discussion with the author of the 538 piece and the Fangraphs one linked here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30049

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-thing-about-bryce-harpers-2015/

0-3 with 3 Ks tonight. average down to .233

they took him out of the game?

didn't watch but yeah it looks like they did

well now

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/bryce-harper-mashes-longest-home-run-of-his-career-against-rockies-081716

on the mets broadcast the other day keith told a story abt going hiking in Arizona and by happenstance running into david segui. I guess segui had previously worked w Bryce as a hitting coach, but Bryce chose not to work w him this past offseason or yr or w/e and segui was like yeah and look now hes only hitting .230

batting average idiots

James has a piece up about Harper and fluke seasons--behind the paywall, though.

"Bryce Harper's 2015 season, if he never again has an outstanding season, would indeed qualify as the greatest fluke season of all time. However, for reasons I'll explain later, I think that's pretty unlikely. It is much more likely that he will have more great seasons coming up."

He doesn't include active players in his research, but he does say that "Ellsbury's (2011) season is now a very strong candidate to be described as the greatest fluke season in baseball history."

$21.6 M for next year, so no arb.

And he just won the game w/ a 2-run HR vs the Philths.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/19375559/bryce-harper-agrees-21625-million-deal-washington-nationals-2018-season

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bryce-harper-has-a-new-lower-gear/

Was watching that game for Scherzer and thought both HR, the second especially, were odd.

lol at 'bryce harper is four months younger than aaron judge'

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEYgFqvW0AApA-U.jpg

i don't know about that look bryce

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--TR03EHcf--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/etbij8bgntxw8xqbf9ja.gif

Same stylist as Joe Scarborough.

http://phildellio.tripod.com/bryce.jpg

http://www.mlb.com/images/1/0/6/241806106/071117_mlb_all_star_game_yadi_hair_flip_mid_002_yzgo43yk.gif

Harper was closer to a cycle tonight than the boxscore shows--HR, 3B, single, and another single where he was just thrown out trying for second (not in order--the almost-double was his second AB).

He and his wife have a food blog:

https://www.instagram.com/harp.eats/

If he has any sense of humour, there will be an upcoming trout post.

Bryce Harper turns 25 today.

Every single player better thru age 24 (born after 1900, who is eligible) is in HOF.https://t.co/1S0JfWLNYj

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) October 16, 2017

Sharp:
Tom Boswell thinks that this offseason's FA pricing means that Harper will be lucky to get 7/250 next year. How wrong is he, and why?

Jay Jaffe:
I think Harper can get into the $300 million range with a longer deal than that, but for as much as I love the kid's game, I'm also among those who believe that he has to put together a 2015-like season — healthy and dominant for 150sh games — to get there. Put that MVP season aside and he's averaged 3.6 WAR in his other years (it's better than that if you prorate, obvs), which is nice but hardly transcendent.

Here are the 10 lowest babip for a wrc+ 140 and + since 1913 (beginning of babip).

Maris, 1961, wrc+ 162 and babip of .209 !!!
McGwire, 1990, wrc+143 and babip of .243.
Bautista, 2010, wrc+ 163, and babip of .233.
Aaron, 1972, wrc+ 148 and babip of. 248.
Kiner, 1948, wrc+ 143 and babip of .236
Bautista, 2015, wrc+ 148 and babip of .237.
Killebrew, 1963, wrc+ 146 and babip of .237.

Then between the .240 and .250 range

Kiner, 1950, wrc+ 152 and babip of .242.
Thornton, 1978, wrc+ 150 and babip of .243.
Killebrew, 1969, wrc+ 173 and babip of .244

So far this season, Harper is at wrc+142 and babip of .192 (career .316). Even with some (possible) regression to the mean, he might join that bizarre and specific club. The thing is that all these aforementioned players had low career babip and not Harper.

Also, Maris' 1961 is just insane.

i've never really thought about it, but i guess that kind of high production / low babip is the trademark of a slugger that's hitting tons of towering fly balls, right? either they land over the fence for a HR, boosting their production but not increasing the babip since they don't count as "in play", or it's likely just a loud out. so it makes sense to see the other guys on that list.

harper's a different story, though. as you mentioned his career babip is .316, and his FB/GB/LD percentages are all around the same place as last year. he's pulling the ball a lot more? weird baseball luck?

OT, sorry, but is there a BABIP-like stat that includes HRs as well?

Yeah the list makes sense, these are the extremes of that trademark and it's fun to identify them but really what I wonder if Harper could become that type as he ages. Basically, he went from .369 to .264 back to .356. to the horror show he is in now. None of these players ever see-sawed the way Harper did, it might that no played ever did.

I think also walks/pitch selection might account in those numbers. For example, Kiner managed to be 16th in OBP that 1948 season, Bautista was 22nd and 11th respectively. Harper right now is at 18th.

Of course, Hank Aaron doesn't really belong to that group and in his case it's more about aging but having a great season than career long method of batting. 1972 he was 38, and over his final 5 seasons he was hovering around a babip of .240.

https://i.imgur.com/mcjYk30.png

We polled hundreds of players across MLB on a variety of subjects. Nearly half of them, granted anonymity, said Bryce Harper is the most overrated player in the game. https://t.co/DGgZt6h3EE

— Lindsey Adler (@lindseyadler) July 16, 2018

i wonder how many future teammates said so

6. Who is the most overrated player in the game?

Top result: Bryce Harper (48.6%)

Runners-up: Chris Davis (10.8%)

Also receiving multiple votes: Javier Báez

Notes: Even anonymously, just over half of the players we polled declined to answer this one — “It’s bad karma,” one said — but among those who did, this was a landslide. As one player told us, it’s not that Harper isn’t talented: “It’s more like guys are kind of tired of him being put up on this pedestal when from a consistency standpoint, he hasn’t sustained it.”

On Báez, one player said, “To a baseball player, a lot of the shit he does is really risky and stupid. When you play against him, you fucking hate watching him. But as a fan, I would want to watch him every single day. I get it.”

I can't think of anybody else you'd choose. When he's great, he's amazing. He spends a lot of time not being great. Eliminate 2015, and he's more like a underrated player whose walks and HRs add value to an otherwise average batting line.

yeah just those piddling walks and HRs

Excellent translation; that's exactly what I meant.

the point is those categories make up most of a valuable batting line.

(sure Harper's BA is bad this year, but if it was even .250 he'd be one of the 10 most valuable players in the NL)

And if he were hitting .250 and were the 10th most valuable player in the NL, that would probably make him the most overrated player in baseball in the context of how many people treat him as one of the two best (which I've done myself at times).

But he's hitting .214, so that's all speculation.

bref has him at 0.0 WAR this year; fangraphs at 1.5

they both hate his defense

didn't factor in the Will to Win

Harper's had the one HOF season and the other HOF 2/3 season. as far as the rest of the time, there's no shame in being near-peak Mickey Tettleton.

Which was exactly my point: "more like a underrated player whose walks and HRs add value to an otherwise average batting line"--i.e., Mickey Tettleton, an underrated player who hit .241 but drew a lot of walks and hit a fair number of HR (especially era-adjusted).

yeah I would not be thrilled to give him a 400M contract or whatever, but someone will