Stay Healthy, Please: The Clayton Kershaw Thread

he'll win CY sure but so many writers are literally "the MVP is the hitting award", verlander had 24 wins and 250 innings when he won

would be awesome if he and felix both won tho

Last night was indeed a marquee match-up for four and two-thirds innings...Posnanski:

In total, Kershaw is on pace to become just the fifth pitcher since Deadball to have a sub-2.00 ERA and FIP. The previous four are all-time seasons:

1946: Hal Newhouser, 1.94 ERA, 1.97 FIP
1963: Sandy Koufax, 1.88 ERA, 1.85 FIP
1968: Bob Gibson, 1.12 ERA, 1.77 FIP
1971: Tom Seaver, 1.76 ERA, 1.93 FIP
2014: Clayton Kershaw, 1.70 ERA, 1.89 FIP

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/era-fip-and-kershaw/#comments

Doesn't happen very often, I bet: pitcher having a historically great season up against a team that seems to have a historically anemic offense. Of course, to coin a phrase, baseball is a funny game, so if he doesn't pitch a perfect game, maybe he'll give up six runs instead.

he takes forever to pitch

I really don't want to end up as someone who obsesses over WAR, but I'm confused as to why he was 7.8 yesterday, and still 7.8 after an 8-inning start where he gave up 3 hits, 2 walks, and one earned run, and he struck out 8. He did give up a couple of unearned runs. Does WAR penalize for unearned runs? (Which I don't have a major problem with; James always thought runs allowed was more important than earned runs allowed.)

are you sure they've updated the numbers yet?

They have. Baseball Reference updates each morning sometime around 9:00; if the standing are updated, that means everything has been updated.

i don't think rWAR distinguishes between earned and unearned runs

for pitching, i prefer fWAR altho it's not perfect.

fangraphs also has daily updates (he got 0.3 yesterday)

had no idea rWAR includes unearned runs though i guess that makes sense

Today, he went up by 0.1 on Baseball Reference. I guess the rest of the league got worse as he sat watching.

didn't realize hes only given up 33 earned runs and 27 walks all season ¯\(°_0)/¯

19-3 now. take away his horrible start against arizona early in the season and his ERA is 1.38.

If he wins his next start, he'd get to 20 in his 27th start. SweetSpot: "Only one pitcher since 1901 has won 20 games in so few appearances -- Jesse Tannehill of the 1902 Pirates, who went 20-6 in 26 games."

wins, feh

Jeff Weaver won 20 in only 30 starts in 2012. What's really amazing is that he didn't pitch deep into games like Kershaw does -- he only had 188 IP, and I think that's a record. Kershaw is at 185 IP, so the record is safe.

sorry, Jered Weaver, not Taco Weaver.

wins, feh

I would have thought this would be one instance where wins actually are an accurate measure of excellence, along with everything else.

what if he was having the same year, but pitching for the Padres?

Kershaw's wins:

19-0, 146.2 IP, 87 H, 172/22 K/BB, 0.80 ERA, no cheap wins (though he did only pitch 5 innings in one of them; one run). Craig Kimbrel as a starter, basically, but with fewer strikeouts and better control.

what I'm saying is with a lousy offensive team, some of those wins would be NDs or even a loss or two. Which has nothing to do with him.

Pitcher wins are an excellent measure of 19th-century accounting.

You've picked the most extreme example...sure, in that case he'd probably be 16-6 or something. Which doesn't change the fact that, with Kershaw, his W-L record is an accurate measure of how well he's pitched.

except for all the other ones.

Which doesn't change the fact that, with Kershaw, his W-L record is an accurate measure of how well he's pitched.

Your sentence doesn't follow from mine--I don't think I said the most accurate, just one of many. I mean, I understand what you're saying, but you're using a hypothetical situation (what if he pitched for the Padres) to cast doubt on something we know to be true: Kershaw's 19-3 because he's been phenomenal, not because of run support or any other factor beyond his control. (Not sure what his run support's been, but I'm sure most of it has been superfluous.)

NO, HE IS 19-3 IN PART *BECAUSE* HIS TEAM SCORES FREQUENTLY

k bye

Sorry, I just think that's factually wrong.

The 19 wins:
0 earned runs -- 8 times
1 earned run -- 9 times
2 earned runs -- 2 times

The 3 losses:
3 earned runs -- 2 times
7 earned runs -- 1 time

The 3 no-decisions:
3 earned runs -- 3 times

What you're saying would have a little or a lot of validity with most pitchers. I don't see that it has any validity here. If you can take those games and explain how 19-3 overstates Kershaw's excellence, I'd be interested in hearing that. Unless you're arguing that he should be even better than 19-3--that some of those losses and no-decisions might have been wins--in which case you have a point.

Wins have more meaning for pitchers who average more innings per start. At 7.4 IP/start (tops in MLB, I think), Kershaw has a lot more control over the outcome of the game than a 6 IP/game pitcher whose W-L record is more influenced by the quality of his team's bullpen.

Also, he has a decent shot at the triple crown (again).

With the Cubs crumbling, Kershaw is set to be the first NL player since WWII to win 20 in less than 30, I know wins are dumb and whatnot but that seems significant enough.

6-3 Dodgers after one inning in Chicago!

how did you arrange Edwin's return?

Ha, Kershaw vs Jackson -- biggest pitching mismatch of the 21st century thus far?

So that was Kershaw's second-worst outing of the year, maybe?

I was going to say that, after that back-and-forth from a couple of days ago, he of course goes out today and picks up his first unimpressive win of the year--first time where run support clearly made a difference. It's like he's mocking my most excellent research.

his 20th win in his 26th start. ridic.

uhhh Kershaw just destroyed the wins theory today, even clemenza noticed.

cheap wins are a thing, tough losses are a thing (Braves starters demonstrating the hell out of that this year), everybody drop your guns or the kid gets it

it doesn't prove his mastery of all creation, but it *is* both rare and ridiculous

In the end isn't every number just made up anyway, makes u think

Yesterday didn't destroy didn't destroy the wins theory. There was no theory in the first place, just the idea that Kershaw's 19-3 record, in this specific instance, did not exaggerate his excellence. Today, Kershaw's 20-3 record does not exaggerate his excellence.

on his triple he looked like a horse galloping out of a burning barn

We all know W-L records can be misleading, but when people quote run support, do they account for the fact that that can be misleading too? Nine runs were scored for Kershaw while he was the pitcher of record last night, so his average run support will be adjusted accordingly. What that doesn't tell you is that a) seven of those runs were superfluous, and b) the game was still 1-1 going into the bottom of the sixth.

SweetSpot's David Schoenfield, who I think is very good and fairly mainstream: "Let's not make the MVP debate more complicated than it needs to be: Clayton Kershaw is the best, and most valuable, player in the National League. There shouldn't really need to be a debate."

I wouldn't go that far--there's a debate there; LuCroy's been great, Stanton was right there until the injury (perhaps leading), there's McCutchen and Rendon--but I do agree with the middle part of that quote.

McCutchen will def be the focus of the "not enough innings" crowd now, but meh who cares

In those narrative factors ILB hates--that was the first word I learned on ILB: "narrative"--I'd say McCutchen benefits from the admirable-superstar factor, and is hurt by the won-one-already factor. So a wash.

unless he gets 3 hits a day in the remaining games and the Bucs win the Central

i think it's mostly kershaw vs giancarlo now, tho both seem way too unconventional to be frontrunners

what's unconventional about Stanton?

Stanton is almost a too-trad candidate, but i think the writers don't want to be perceived as giving him any sort of pity vote, and at 24 they think he can improve on 37hr 105rbi when he's with the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers.

now can we bail on awards and anticipate Kershaw's LDS start?

I thought this was just fuckawful timing but then I read this and I’m like, fuck him for this, honestly.

Notice he's really turned it around in June. Last four starts:

27 IP, 20 H, 28 K, 7 BB, 1.33 ERA

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers-clayton-kershaw-has-shoulder-surgery-hopes-to-pitch-next-year-1.2030667

Postseason aside--and maybe making amends is what drives him; is it money at this point?--his regular-season body of work is still close to flawless. His career ERA sits at 2.48, all his rate stats are among the best ever, and (if you care) his winning pct. is just shy of .700. I'm a little surprised he doesn't hang it up.

You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end, it turns out that it was the other way around all the time.

It's not just about the money, if it was, he would have pursued (and received) a multi-year deal from someone. He knows he can still compete at a high level. Maybe he really wants to end his career playing in his home state, that's the kind of thing every kid dreams about. But he also wants to win, and the Dodgers have been the best team nearly every year during his career. It's not an easy decisions, and good on him that he's earned the right to end his career on his own terms.

Perfect use of one of my favourite lines ever.

https://www.mlb.com/news/clayton-kershaw-lands-on-injured-list-with-bone-spur-in-toe

Most ill-advised thread title ever.

Sad lol

Looked like he was going to cry coming off the field. sucks to see

Pitched well today; 17 more for 3,000.

Massive difference in quality this start compared to his previous. It was pretty sad before this, felt very much out of the league. Looked competitive today; huge relief

https://dodgersway.com/clayton-kershaw-dave-roberts-letting-dodgers-fans-down-on-key-social-issues

Kershaw continued to emphasize his faith — a totally permissible thing to do — but he did it while potentially isolating LGBTQ+ fans during Pride Night this year. He did don the team's special cap for the night, the LA logo containing the colors of the rainbow flag, but he added the words "Gen 9:12-16," referring to a Bible verse, emphasizing that the rainbow belongs to God. The verses have frequently been used to undermine LGBTQ+ pride.

fuck this POS, they should play videos mocking his failures in every single ballpark every game

Gross.

just because you are future HOFer doesn’t mean you get a pass for this

Not the first time he’s done this.

yeah

Kershaw is now in the pen for LA. Not looking to be in a post season rotation with Snell/Glasnow/Yamamoto/Ohtani starting. With the pen being what it is... starters Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan are moving into the pen with Kershaw doing so immediately.

Dodgers need all the bullpen help they can get.

And they just got Roki Sasaki back for it!