rolling sabermetrics and statistics thread

http://deadspin.com/this-is-the-best-fake-law-firm-name-weve-ever-seen-1447497862

Is there a career measure of all-time players that includes defense? It's a big barrier once you go before 1950 or so, yes? Does Win Shares? I'm looking for a stat-based all-around ranking of all-time catchers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d

?

thanks... so by fWAR we got this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d

Not high on pre-expansion catcher defense, are they?

yeah i think the quality of defensive data back then was just so basic, certainly none of the pitch-framing info we've had in recent years

I looked into buying James's Win Shares book online (came out about a decade ago), and it's way too pricey--new copies $138 (!), used copies $25, which I'm sure would end up being close to $35 after postage. For some reason, I missed it when it came out.

Not really helpful, but Baseball References career defensive WAR leaders:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_def_career.shtml

You'd have to pick out the catchers. I don't know why they don't have a positional list--they have positional lists for about eight other categories.

If I haven't missed anyone:

1. Gary Carter
2. Bob Boone
3. Jim Sundberg
4. Tony Pena (big gap after Sundberg)
5. Yadier Molina
6. Carlton Fisk
7. Steve Yeager
8. Lance Parrish
9. Benito Santiago
10. Del Crandell

"This statistic is computed from play-by-play data which is only complete from 1974 to the present. From 1945-1973, the data is incomplete, though for most seasons only less than 20 games per season total are missing."

you missed the real #1 (from that list): pudge rodriguez

Super-sized "oops"--#8 all-time for any position.

so where did Fangraphs get their defensive ratings for Dickey, Hartnett, Wally Schang et al?

also, not sure if this was cited in Andruw HOF discussion: greatest defensive CF "ever"?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d

Not high on pre-expansion catcher defense, are they?

― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, November 6, 2013 12:39 PM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

uzr is still considered entirely unfit for actual catcher defense analysis, i think it's basically in beta mode until they figure shit out

"I don't know if it's going to change the way we do business, necessarily," Amaro said. "We still plan to be a scouting and player development organization, but I think it's important to get all the information and analyze not just what we're doing, but how other clubs are evaluating players."

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/11/6/5072250/phillies-hire-the-analytics-guy-theyre-going-to-ignore

Freedman, however, is not a Phillies employee, assistant general manager Scott Proefrock said.

“He’s joined us through the commissioner’s office,” said Proefrock referring to the arrangement as an “externship.” ”He’s here for a period of time,” Proefrock continued. “We were contacted by [the commissioner's office] this summer. They proposed the arrangement, we had a need and took advantage of it. He’s a bright guy. It might become something more than [the current role].”

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/07/the-phillies-didnt-hire-a-stat-guy-after-all-theyre-just-renting-him-for-a-while/

I just want to know if the Philths' hatred of analysis led them to coin “externship.”

so where did Fangraphs get their defensive ratings for Dickey, Hartnett, Wally Schang et al?

― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, November 6, 2013 1:42 PM (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externship

news to me! disgusting business English goes way back.

No idea in which thread to share this, but somehow I guess scheduling is one form of baseball metrics (and I had to, it's a fun little documentary):

The Schedule Makers

^^ great story

At the end they complain about how bad the schedules are now compared to theirs, but they never had to deal with combination of unbalanced schedules + interleague play + odd number of teams in each league. I have a hunch that the last one has ruined the elegance of the scheduling beyond all repair.

That was fantastic. Guy looked eerily like Judd Apatow. Any of the other short ones good?

They dealt with all except the last though for at least 7 years though.

I haven't watched Van Horn's one yet, but it led me to one on the Honus Wagner card that I thought was good--the link is in the card thread below this one.

stupid question maybe but i was checking out big papi's BBR page and how does he have a -1.7 dWAR for only 6 games played in the field last season? he's got similar stats for previous years. i don't think he'd be THAT bad, so what's the position adjustment w/r/t DHing?

dWAR now contains the position component as we feel this better captures player defensive value.

er, maybe you knew that

DH takes a huge hit

looking at fWAR's defensive scores for him it looks like a full-season DH starts around a -1.5 baseline.

ah gotcha...interesting.

For $200, Alex.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/jeopardy--contestants-were-stumped-by-sabermetrics-clue-002124051.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory&soc_trk=fb

barves' coppolella on WAR

Like it as means for comparison, but too much emphasis on defense

managerial tactics that are withering away

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sabermetrics-is-killing-bad-dugout-decisions/

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/bob-nightengale/2016/01/14/mlb-scouts-s-getting-harder-avoid-force-out/78803500/

January 30 is SABR Day, with lots of chapter meetings.

http://sabr.org/sabrday

with links to nominated pieces

We're pleased to announce the finalists for the 2016 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards, which will recognize baseball researchers who have completed the best work of original analysis or commentary during the preceding calendar year.

Nominations were solicited by representatives from SABR, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, The Hardball Times, and Beyond the Box Score.

http://sabr.org/latest/announcing-finalists-2016-sabr-analytics-conference-research-awards

Prospectus annual is out, which means there'll be a new METS THREAD AS SOON AS I CONJURE A TITLE.

PECOTA! Indians w/ 10-win advantage/projection in AL Central.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbbMEpLWEAAWANI.jpg

BP editor Sam Miller on the Royals and PECOTA (free)

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/28457

Pirates hopeful Cole Figueroa and his pursuit of analytics

http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/10149683-74/figueroa-ball-spring

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28697

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cegi7j4XIAAIauV.jpg

The Indians are projected as the winningest AL team by PECOTA.

I read at least some of every BP Annual team chapter while i had an i.v. drip in yesterday. Some real good stuff despite two different references to Flo from Progressive... Russell Carleton (I think) wrote a breakup letter to WAR ("Remember when we stayed up all night making fun of Murray Chass?"), and the guy who wrote the Angels chapter calls the team, given its defiant-ostrich culture, The Comments.

on DRA

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-analytics-guru-who-could-be-the-next-nate-silver-has-a-revolutionary-new-stat

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/goose-egg-new-save-stat-relief-pitchers/?ex_cid=538twitter

seems cool!

I like that stat, more telling than a save. It raises a bit of the bar on John Franco and Lee Smith, both of which's career straddled between the old 'Fireman' and the 'Eckersley - 9th inning only' style of closers.

i'll have to read the article again closer to understand the applied stats a little better but when it comes to ranking pitchers based on value added, i don't see why you wouldn't just use WPA. as far as basic box score stats go tho, the goose egg definitely seems preferable to the save

an issue with using goose eggs to retrospectively evaluate relievers tho, as silver notes, is that reliever roles have revolved around getting saves for the past 30 or 40 years, so guys like rivera miss out on opportunities. also seems a bit unfair to LOOGY guys

Win Shares does this as well as LI (Leverage Index). But it may not be as general public friendly as goose egg.

I think the idea of it being only 2 run lead is what is interesting in the figure. A 2 run lead to me is a standard of the such, as it is a 'bloop and a blast' from the opposition being back in the game.

It's a good stat to do the comparison Nate set out to do, which is look at the classic 70s to mid 80s 'Fireman" compared to the LaRussa/Duncan closer works the 9th setup. I think this stat would perhaps be more an illustration of worth for some long time setup men too.

The type of relievers that are perhaps not as easy to compare would be old school long man types that would often come in early with the club to hold a team in a game. Big Red Machine's pitching staff was anchored by a couple of those types with Pedro Borbon and Clay Carroll. Those guys threw alot of innings held teams in check and let those big bats get them come back wins.

some of the differences here are rather small, but it does suggest the dodgers have found a metric they like for pitchers: average exit velocity (here filtered for a minimum of 150 batted ball events)

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard?year=2017&abs=150&player_type=pitcher

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putting-war-in-context-a-response-to-bill-james/

dave cameron responds to bill james' nonsense

I'm at work and can only skim, but judging from the tone, he hardly seems to dismiss James's piece as nonsense. They see the issue differently.