PECOTA is out

NL All-Stars:
C: Brian McCann
1B: Pujols
2B: Utley
3B: Cabrera
SS: Bill Hall
RF: Brian Giles
CF: Carlos Beltran
LF: Soriano

AL All-Stars:
C: Mauer
1B: Teixeira
2B: Cano
3B: A-Rod
SS: Jeter
RF: Vlad
CF: Sizemore
LF: ManRam
DH: Hafner

NL MVP: Pujols, Cabrera, Wright
AL MVP: Hafner, Mauer, Ortiz

NL CY: Webb, Peavy, Pedro
AL CY: Johan, Halladay, Bonderman

NL Relief: Wagner, Lidge, Broxton
AL Relief: K-Rod, Nathan, BJ Ryan

Can someone tabulate the ROYs? I'm not sure who's eligible. I know that Tim Lincecum (SF SP) and Philip Hughes (NYY SP) are projecting high.

Yeah, but he's projected to hit a HR in 2007! You wouldn't want to miss this once-in-a-season event!

5-year projected values:
Barry Zito, $34.05mn
Alfonso Soriano, $61.3
Joe Mauer, $150.775
Poo-holes, $153.6
Johan Santana, $96.65
A-Rod, $83.0
Grady Sizemore, $118.075
Barry Bonds, $10.775

Top 5 2007 NL Second Basemen, by PECOTA Projected VORP

Player, Team, EqA, VORP

Chase Utley, PHI, .295, 49.0
Ray Durham, SFN, .295, 38.7
Eric Patterson, CHN, .280, 34.9
Brooks Conrad, HOU, .279, 29.2
Jeff Kent, LAN, .291, 28.2

Do the BP people expect that this guy is going to get significant playing time a 2B this year? He is not even on the radar here in Houston. Right now Biggio start at 2B regularly until he get his 3000th hit, then, according the conventional wisdom, he'll split time there with Mark Lorretta, who the Astros signed in the offseason to be a "super-utility" guy. The other future 2B on the Astros is Chris Burke, who will be playing CF this season now that Willy T has been traded.

So why does BP figure a PECOTA for Brooks Conrad and what makes them think he'll have the 4th best season in the NL at that position?

Basically I think the PECOTA projection means that if Brooks Conrad plays 2B (which he won't) and gets 516 AB (which he also won't) and hits as well as PECOTA projects he will (which given his #s in AAA isn't entirely unwarranted) he would be this valuable over the course of the year (in a league with weak 2B for the most.)

-- Steve Shasta (steveshast...), January 16th, 2007 3:14 PM. (Steve Shasta)

^^^^^OTM x 10000000000000000000000^^^^

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7749

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=190

YSI?

:`(

"Basically 80-82 seems like the absolute worst case scenario to me."

HAHAHA!

Also LOL:

Zito's ERA goin up that much is weird.
-- Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, January 16, 2007 7:41 AM (1 year ago)

and some!

Joe Kennedy, Swing, TOR:

40 G, 9 GS, 4.78 ERA, 1.50 WHIP

I think it is safe to say that he will underperform his 2008 PECOTA prediction.

Peavy: 212 IP, 223K, 1.13 WHIP, 2.98 ERA

Santana: 225 IP, 239K, 1.08 WHIP, 2.94 ERA

This would be a hell of a Cy Young battle -- the closest matchup in years!

Is Santana's league adjusted?

Yes -- he's listed as a Met.

What are the numbers on the Reds Brandon Phillips?

.274/.325/.444
20 HR, 20 SB
22.4 VORP

are they projecting Ryan Zimmermann over David Wright?

yes, they have Zimmerman at .339/.420/.687

nb: I haven't seen it yet

what do they have wainwright at? also adam lolkennedy?

and the entire starting line up of the Florida Marlins?

Florida, offensively at least, looks okay on paper (Hanley, Uggla, Willingham, Hermida, etc.). Their pitching, on the other hand, looks like TROUBLE.

Byun-Hyung Kim is their projected #3 guy with 6-7, 4.54 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.

Unless the Giants resign Bonds, PECOTA forecast they will have no player with a:

BA: >.293
OPB: >.348
SLG: >.449
OPS: >.781
HR: >15
BB: >37

that is simply disturbing.

just to compare, there are 5 Royals forecasted to have equivalent or higher OPS than the best Giant.

Revive, and let's compare that with the actuals:

BA: .306 (Randy Winn)
OBP: .385 (Ray Durham)
SLG: .445 (Bengie Molina) - advantage PECOTA
OPS: .791 (Fred Lewis)
HR: 16 (Bengie Molina)
BB: 59 (Randy Winn)

09PECOTA YSI? ;-)

Shasta not understanding PECOTA shockah?

Giants sound like YOUR TEAM there

oh no, a Giant hit 16 HR, PECOTA BROKE!

from kevin goldstein:

"According to PECOTA, with a full slate of at-bats, (Matt) Wieters should hit .311 with a .395 on-base percentage and a .544 slugging mark this year. That's good for a .319 EqA. How good is that? Historically great, because it would easily be the highest mark of any catcher in 2009, and only 17 catchers have exceeded that mark in the history of baseball."

am i freaking out already? yes i am.

Oh now I get it... comparing a forecast with actuals as a measure of accuracy is "not understanding" in the magical world of Dr. Morbius.

lol YSI? ;-)

tis pity you don't grasp ranges of probability the way you do the brilliance of Slumdog Millionaire

I can grasp that the upper limits of the model/algorithim underprojected by -22%.

If you think the goal of forecasting/projections without measurable hold-out sample accuracy, you really should just stick to Spielberg toots.

also: YSI?

Matt Wieters is the new Alex Gordon. These guys seem to have short memories.

ok, i guess BP isn't all that bad.. Ferris! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12877

Is .325 OBP an unrealistic projection for the Dodgers, though? Your strength this season is likely to be your pitching staff, but even so you're likely to be 3rd favourite in the NL West, I'd have thought (ahead of two pretty poor teams).

has the mets @ 80 wins!

noted last week

behind some numbers

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19673

It's out, and projects 73 steals for Billy Hamilton

'tis out

http://www.sbnation.com/2017/2/8/14549012/dodgers-cardinals-pecota-projections

projects Angels at 80-82.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

Steamer really doesn't like Acuña Jr.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=25,d

vlad jr, 14th-most valuable position player of 2019, just ahead of aaron judge

go bucs

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings