what happens if SOPA passes?

Basically, a system that conceives, funds and makes 'Battleship' can go and get fucked

i'm not saying a movie needs any of those things to be good (have you ever read anything i've posted here?). i'm just saying there's a certain type of movie that requires giant cash infusions that isn't likely to be made by the guy down the street. and i don't just mean avatar or mission impossible or whatever.

and i honestly don't think this type of movie would be doomed to irrelevance if the current regime of manufactured scarcity and anti-piracy were to hold back. no doubt there are essential industrial factors here, like the crowding out of distribution channels of other types of films, etc. but i do think that stars are a big part of the attraction of filmgoing, as are the kinds of manufactured worlds or idealized representations that, yes, require outlays (tell me one movie made for less than $30 million that looks convincingly like a big hollywood picture).

i'm not defending (or condemning) this, i just think it's naive to suggest that new technologies left to their own devices would completely shatter the hold the major studios--or functional equivalents of the major studios--have over the film marketplace.

that ought to be their problem, not mine.

This is utterly utterly otm, and sums up the entire situation imo.

Also I genuinely think that in 50 years' time people will look back on this era as hilariously lavish and over the top. 'They used to spend WHAT on making movies??'

i'm not defending (or condemning) this, i just think it's naive to suggest that new technologies left to their own devices would completely shatter the hold the major studios--or functional equivalents of the major studios--have over the film marketplace.

new tech won't, $ will

I hate most new films as much as anyone, but can anyone honestly name even 10 truly DIY films that are any good?

people who watch diy films probably can

i'm not defending (or condemning) this, i just think it's naive to suggest that new technologies left to their own devices would completely shatter the hold the major studios--or functional equivalents of the major studios--have over the film marketplace.

I think it will if they resist for long enough.

bwt gbx's suggestion of price tiering for movies with expensive budgets is not unlike the price tiering iTunes uses for music right now, e.g. singles and popular songs cost ~25% more than standard album tracks. It seems to be working for music, so I see no reason it couldn't work for movies. People already spend a fortune on home cinemas and Blu-ray special 48-disc editions of Things Exploding II; it's certainly within the means of those people to pay US$30 to see it in a cinema.

xpost and WHO ARE THOSE PEOPLE

I dunno. people who make them? morbs maybe?

This is just one example, but I dug 'Monsters' more than almost any SFX-heavy film from the last couple of years, and it was made for half a million dollars. And so now the director's been hired to do the latest attempt to remake Godzilla, which will probably cost 200x as much and be less good.

Thinking needs to change completely. If you take a linear collection of movies made to increasingly large budgets (I dunno, Paranormal Activity on one side and Avatar on the other) and try to work out where the future will fit, you're still thinking in terms of what a movie is today and how it's made today. Without getting wanky I think a new format will emerge that sits somewhere between today's cinema and Breaking Bad-style television. Maybe episodic films, I dunno, but a format that makes sense for internet distribution.

yeah I agree w/ dis ^

the best way to get people to pay for something / want to watch live is tense episodic viewing

i.e. soap operas <--

I hate most new films as much as anyone, but can anyone honestly name even 10 truly DIY films that are any good?

wellll what are you defining as DIY?

i'm not defending (or condemning) this, i just think it's naive to suggest that new technologies left to their own devices would completely shatter the hold the major studios--or functional equivalents of the major studios--have over the film marketplace.

i agree with this! kinda

basically, what i've said itt (some of it above the fold i think) is that
a) piracy does not affect, in a moral or financial sense, the livelihood of hollywood in a way that merits the legislation imposed, or even currently in place.
b) to say that it does requires some pretty enthusiastic ontological contortions about what it means to buy or own something, and i think SOPA forced a discussion of how ridiculous those really look
c) the literally fantastic claims made by big content (<--useful but annoying euphemism) about the value of the stuff they make are based on an archaic production and distribution model that is not in any way necessary for people to be able to make and watch stuff they like on a glowing square
d) SOPA would give the US gov't an internet kill switch based entirely on the hypothetical grievances and warped reality of some really rich dudes that want to stay that way

many xps

imposed = proposed

d) SOPA would give the US gov't an internet kill switch based entirely on the hypothetical grievances and warped reality of some really rich dudes that want to stay that way

It REALLY pissed me off when the SOPA/PIPA sponsors were claiming it was all to protect the artists, when the vast majority of artists were absolutely not backing them up. The only artists I'm aware of who see piracy as a genuine threat are essentially just more really rich dudes (e.g. Bono, Prince, the Lars dude out of Metallica) who are terrified that their massive cash piles will diminish. Correct me if I'm wrong here.

I think it's time that artistic endeavours weren't locked into a structure run by the least artistic people on the planet.

Regarding budgets of films, look at Let the Right One in and Girl with a Dragon Tattoo.

The original Swedish films cost 4.5 and 13 million $US to make.
The US remakes cost 20 and 90 million $US to do--incredibly inflated budgets in order to make something that already existed.

A piece of shit like The Happening, with no decent effects, and not much in the way of star power, cost $60 million.

Above and beyond DIY films, you can make decent movies for a few million dollars or less. Hollywood has ridiculously inflated the costs of everything, and now can't see their way to making good films for sensible money.

Sorry, hit submit too early.

My point is that if you can put together a decent film for around $10 million, piracy as much less of a threat in the first place, because there is just not the vast budget that needs recouping in the first place.

Yeah, and they use those huge budgets to calculate the 'losses' incurred by piracy. That's awfully like building a 65-lane highway from Brussels to Antwerp and hoping that 65 lanes' worth of Belgians will use it.

otm

but scratch 'hoping' and sub 'expecting'

yeah

btw I'm eternally grateful that you guys are happy to discuss these points without assuming that every SOPA opponent hearts piracy.

That's just it. I would be thrilled to pay money to see films I like. I spend a fortune on books when I could be pirating the e-versions. I download music to see if I like it, and if I do I buy the CD.

Between Spotify and YouTube there is no reason for me to download illicit/non-sanctioned leaks.

^

How many of those Youtube leaks are unsanctioned, though? It is one of the largest holders of illegally distributed music in the world. The labels have just been slack in getting them to stop. If the album issue is dealt with, I can't see a reason why they would not target unofficial video streams properly next.

Things Exploding II

it's a shame they had to piss all over things exploding by making such an unworthy sequel.

looking for The Beach Boys' L.A. Light Album

found this on rapidshare via a filestube search, fwiw

Also worth bearing in mind, if i'm the CEO of Sony or Universal, i'd be thinking "a vast percentage of my revenue is reliant on two services (iTunes and Spotify) that pay me next to nothing and are, ultimately, looking to replace me in the future:". If they think the adele.rar problem has been solved, i'm sure they're going to look into the feasibility of taking all their music off those services and providing their own, in-house replacements.

they did try that more than a few times about 10 years ago as i recall, and it got them nowhere.

Yeah, something is still there but afaik not enough people have been using it.

Hopefully even they understand that a common shopfront/cloud/whatever is the only way to make it work.

The one they had before was dreadful, though. They'll have learned lessons. The technology has developed as well. At the very least, they're in a much stronger position to negotiate on price - driving up costs to the end user.

Book publishers are terrified of Apple / Amazon and the idea of direct-to-consumer sales. It's not such a huge issue with music at the moment but it might be in the future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwjy6IUaqUc

All I can say is that your typical 30-second commercial in the year 2012 tends to be more impressive visually than the bulk of movies that were made even 20 years ago. Costs have to go down.

found this on rapidshare via a filestube search, fwiw

Hmmm, I'll look again tonight, but I found some rapidshare links in the same way, but they were all dead.

tons of results for it on $1$k

I hate to burst all of your bubbles, but most moviegoers want to see Things Exploding II, not Uncle Banh Mi Who Can Remember Past Lunch. Things Exploding II is what's being pirated en masse, and it's what studios are arguably losing money on due to piracy. If you don't care, that's fine, but let's not confuse taste with economics.

Hurting 2 otm

I haven't used s1sk in forever.

i think the point is that the $200m blockbuster will probably go away in 10 years (or be made for much less), while there will always be decent-to-great movies made in the $2-20m range?

i mean if widespread piracy is going to stop Avatar II or Bad Boys III from getting made, who really suffers there

We all suffer if Bad Boys III never gets made.

well people who work in certain industries in hollywood that depend on high budgets (special effects, etc.) suffer

Americans will forget the blockbusters of yore as they come to better appreciate the depth and poignance of George Clooney midlife crisis pictures.

it's not really fair to say that with DYI electronics people could make avatar or even j. edgar. in fact it's wrong. you can make a reasonably nice-looking movie for cheaper than ever before. but not one with big sets, big stars, extras, fancy CGI, etc.

Consumer-level 3D packages are pretty damn powerful. Blender -- which is open source and completely free -- has actually been used to make entirely CGI movies. All it takes is some training and the willingness to wait for renders.

...and the willingness to wait for renders

this eliminates a good chunk of the population.