i think at the very LEAST sales have been flattened -- so the peaks are much less stark than they used to be -- does that make sense? like kings of leon vs. arcade fire, i bet KOL outsold arcade fire, but i bet the difference would be much more considerable in a pre-downloading world ... that the impact doesnt even necessarily have to be about x being more popular than y, but by how MUCH they are more popular ... there are all kinds of unquantifiable changes like this
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Monday, 27 December 2010 22:09 (thirteen years ago) link
Have you guys seen the Ultimate Chart, which purportedly aggregates data from YouTube and MySpace plays, Twitter and Facebook mentions, etc.?
― Zsa Zsa Gay Bar (jaymc), Monday, 27 December 2010 22:16 (thirteen years ago) link
i question the reliability of those stats but that def LOOKS more like a chart id imagine - albeit missing the oldster artists
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Monday, 27 December 2010 22:23 (thirteen years ago) link
I think it's not at all controversial to suggest that some genres will have been hit harder than others by illegal downloads.
In particular, genres which are more likely to be followed as genres by their fans online will build up communities of people sharing illegal downloads with one another. Whereas established fan bases for established artists (a) skew older; (b) are more likely to be followed in their capacity as a standalone artist; and (c) command a loyalty amongst that fan base that is more likely to result in a cd being purchased, even if in many cases out of a sense of obligation or guilt.
Moreover certain artists/styles still have a residual package-fetishism thing at work. Young girls who are Taylor Swift fans are more likely to want the picture book that comes with the CD. Dance music fans are the least sentimentalist of all, and to the extent that they fetishize anything it's vinyl - but not packaging etc.
Also CDs being purchased as gifts for friends and family - always a big thing - is now a proportionately much bigger thing than it used to be.
All of which helps to lessen slightly the impact of illegal downloading for some artists rather than others.
It hits all artists massively of course, but even minor variations in the proportional impact will have large effects on the resulting chart positions.
― Tim F, Monday, 27 December 2010 22:26 (thirteen years ago) link
I've kind of lost track of this discussion (went to the post office), but should have mentioned above that there are new metrics being tried out, beyond album sales. For instance, how meaningful it is is anybody's guess at this point probably, but a couple weeks ago Billboard launched an artist chart they call the "Social 50," which they say "will guage artist popularity using a formula blending weekly additions of friends, fans and followers, along with weekly artist page views and weekly song plays on MySpace, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and iLike. Social music tracking service Next Big Sound gathers data from these sites..."
The first chart was in the December 11 issue; top 20 artists went:
RihannaJustin BieberEminemLady GagaNicki MinajBlack Eyed PeasKaty PerryKe$haLinkin ParkShakiraLil WayneMichael JacksonTaylor SwiftIsherChristina Grimmie (who apparently covered Nelly's "Just A Dream" on youtube)Don OmarAkonShinedownEnrique IglesiasBeyonce
That same week, the top 20 artist albums, on the album sales chart, were by:
Kanye WestNicki MinajSusan BoyleTaylor SwiftJackie Evancho (*O Holy Night*)RihannaJustin Bieber (who actually had albums at both #7 and #21)My Chemical RomanceNe-YoKid RockJosh GrobanRascal FlattsKeith UrbanKe$haKaty PerrySugarlandChris Tomlin (another Christmas album))Justin AldeanLady AntebellumBon Jovi
Very different list. So the artists with apparently grown-up audiences (Boyle, Groban, the Christmas ones, Bon Jovi, Kid Rock), and country people in general (Taylor Swift included) didn't do as well on the social networks. Neither did My Chemical Romance. And obviously there are other variables that neither chart is tracking (illegal downloads being one big one, probably -- though I'm pretty sure Big Champagne has done some work in quantifying those over the past few years. But also, for instance, legal singles downloads, magazines purchased with Justin Bieber on the cover, requests to radio stations, live tickets, etc.) And to really show who's most popular, you'd have to come up with a formula that somehow combined all the variables.
― xhuxk, Monday, 27 December 2010 22:28 (thirteen years ago) link
yeah but "the social 50" & the chart that jaymc linked too are pretty much imperceptible from the hot 100
― BIG SANTA aka the sleighdriver (J0rdan S.), Monday, 27 December 2010 22:30 (thirteen years ago) link
even taking into account official social media like youtube, last.fm, myspazz and what have you, the unquantifiable elephant in the room is still common or garden illegal downloading - torrents and, y'know, just straight hitting up filestube.
deej/j0rdan i assume datpiff counts d/ls? do you think a majority of rap mixtape traffic goes through it?
― lex diamonds (lex pretend), Monday, 27 December 2010 22:33 (thirteen years ago) link
fwiw im not arguing about the hot 100 (which iirc has drastically shifted its measurements in the past few years anyway? incorporating downloads etc) just the albums charts
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Monday, 27 December 2010 22:33 (thirteen years ago) link
datpiff does count dls -- iirc the top mixtapes have hundreds of thousands of downloads
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Monday, 27 December 2010 22:34 (thirteen years ago) link
this of course is further distorted by the fact that youre now talking WORLDWIDE downloads
and even further, because records labels (i.e., guccis) forced datpiff to remove his official mixtapes
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Monday, 27 December 2010 22:35 (thirteen years ago) link
xxxxp Uh, Usher not Isher obv.
And Michael Jackson did well on that first Social 50 Chart despite probably having lots of adults in his audience.
And right, there's that "Ultimate chart" too, which preceded the new one at Billboard.
― xhuxk, Monday, 27 December 2010 22:35 (thirteen years ago) link
this feeds into something i'd add to tim's (spot on) post re: who is more likely to illegally download (prob the most perceptive thing i've seen on these demographics tbh) - fans of music that's not legally available in their country
― lex diamonds (lex pretend), Monday, 27 December 2010 22:41 (thirteen years ago) link
This piece, which ran upon the Ultimate Chart's unveiling in July, says Big Champagne are planning to "chart illegal downloads separately through a service called TopSwaps" (though it also seems to be suggesting they may be incorporated into the Ultimate Chart at some point.)
http://www.fastcompany.com/1672176/move-over-soundscan-music-has-a-new-chart
― xhuxk, Monday, 27 December 2010 22:44 (thirteen years ago) link
I think, as usual, the decline in music sales is greatly exaggerated. It's changing, for sure, but as of last year's report, it was still actually on the rise overall: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Nielsen-Music-2009-Year-End-Press-Release.pdf
We'll see what the new report says next week.
YouTube and fileshares only have any financial impact on an artist if the artist tours much. It also depends on whether the type of audience that artist attracts actually goes to shows, which might vary widely between lesser known r&b, country, hip-hop, indie rock, and metal artists.
― Fastnbulbous, Monday, 27 December 2010 22:55 (thirteen years ago) link
It would be cool to see separate reports from all the streaming/subscription services too - Last F.M., Spotify, MOG, Rhapsody, etc. I think Nielson covers 'em, but not separated out.
― Fastnbulbous, Monday, 27 December 2010 23:02 (thirteen years ago) link
There are all sorts of variables at work that are difficult to factor in appropriately.
Like, one thing I often see glossed over is that it's not just people like us who are obtaining more music than ever before - it's the "average" 12 cd per year music listener as well, at least to the extent that they are downloading illegally. I think lots of people download what's big / popular / charting / on the radio for the purpose of having their own (in effect) radio playlist (this is particularly obv at parties), whereas before they might have just used the radio for that purpose. So there are lots of people who are now obtaining the most popular music who simply wouldn't have bothered before, in the same way that many people here seem to listen to 5 times as many albums per year now than they could have afforded in the pre-downloading era.
Conversely, the major labels and big artists are probably the most successful at stymying the accessibility and availability of free music on-line.
― Tim F, Monday, 27 December 2010 23:37 (thirteen years ago) link
the decline in music sales is greatly exaggerated. It's changing, for sure, but as of last year's report, it was still actually on the rise overall
Only if you equate buying an individual track with buying an entire album, which is what Nielsen is asking you to do when they claim "overall music sales" were up 2.1% in 2009 at the top of that press release. That's kind of fuzzy math; you might want to take it with a grain of salt. So yeah, "it's changing" -- from people buying albums to people buying singles. Which means -- dollarwise, or in terms of the amount of music purchased -- it's still shrinking fast. Rising sales in digital tracks still haven't come close to making up for album sales' plummet over the past decade, and probably never will.
YouTube and fileshares only have any financial impact on an artist if the artist tours much
Well, they might also conceivably help the artist get licensing deals (in movies, TV shows, ads) if companies are convinced of their popularity, or might help them sell more merchandise. But yeah, touring's more likely where it'd make a difference. Which just goes to show that "being popular" isn't necessarily the same these days as "making money at it."
― xhuxk, Monday, 27 December 2010 23:49 (thirteen years ago) link
"YouTube and fileshares only have any financial impact on an artist if the artist tours much"
i dont understand any logic by which this would be true
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 00:54 (thirteen years ago) link
I think he means positive impact - if someone is downloading the music for free, they might make up for it by paying for a concert ticket.
There are of course other ways you can spend money on artist but concert tickets are by far the most directly lucrative for the artist (short of, like, pledging your inheritance to them etc.)
― Tim F, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 01:03 (thirteen years ago) link
merchandising at shows must be big too
but i mean look at jay elect, who has released only two tracks you are even able to purchase, and is now making soft drink ads. there are all sorts of income streams, hence labels coming up with the 360 deal.
― zvookster, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 01:31 (thirteen years ago) link
"eminem, a pop star whose profile was highest a decade ago? its 30 year old stans buying his records now."
dude, not cool, stan totally died.
― scott seward, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 01:36 (thirteen years ago) link
xp Yeah, I took fastnbulbous's post to mean that popularity on youtube or file-sharing sites could theoretically serve as exposure that might promote artists' live gigs (and the other revenue streams I named). Of course, whether that actually will happen often in real life is another question.
― xhuxk, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 01:44 (thirteen years ago) link
It's basically the same idea as when artists intentionally give away mixtapes for free, in hopes that that'll help bring people to shows (or maybe even lead to actual album sales down the line).
― xhuxk, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 01:52 (thirteen years ago) link
^^^ I think the above is a flawed model on a commercial level (at least in terms of people expecting album sales) - giving stuff away for free early on teaches people to expect it for free later. One of the problems with someone like Gucci is that the average listener can't hope to absorb even all the free mixtapes so there's really almost zero motivation to purchase a subsequent album unless it's got a massive hit on it.
Same problem for dance music DJs and artists - there's so many free sanctioned DJ sets now that the average listener hardly needs to buy anything (or even download illegally) to get their fill.
― Tim F, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 02:13 (thirteen years ago) link
plus, buying dance music in real life is HARD. hard to find for a lot of people. and buying online can be rilly expensive. sooooo much easier to just get it on your computer. its a godsend for people really.
― scott seward, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 02:16 (thirteen years ago) link
my wife saw me looking at this thread and told me to share her top three songs of 2010
1. the black keys - "tighten up"2. massive attack - "paradise circus" (ft. hope sandoval)3. broken bells - "the ghost inside"
― i genuinely thought when i first joined that he was the admin (ilxor), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 03:56 (thirteen years ago) link
^_____________________^
Ha, I just asked my fiancee what hers are:
1. Sam Amidon ft. Beth Orton, "You Better Mind"2. Janelle Monae ft. Big Boi, "Tightrope"3. Sleigh Bells, "Rill Rill"
― Zsa Zsa Gay Bar (jaymc), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 04:40 (thirteen years ago) link
i'm surprised normallers have ready-made answers to the q
― zvookster, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 04:43 (thirteen years ago) link
Why do you assume she's a "normaller"?
OK, she is.
But it just so happens she got really obsessed with those three songs in particular this year. I probably could've answered the question for her, though I wouldn't have known the order.
― Zsa Zsa Gay Bar (jaymc), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 04:49 (thirteen years ago) link
My boyfriend wouldn't have readymade answers but I'm guessing top choices would be "fuck you", "the only girl in the world", "all the lovers" and "dynamite".
― Tim F, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 04:51 (thirteen years ago) link
all good choices ^^
fyi my wife would probably round out her top 5 with "tightrope" and "cold war"
― i genuinely thought when i first joined that he was the admin (ilxor), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 05:30 (thirteen years ago) link
Also maybe that song by the script about sitting up all night drinking bottles of cheap red wine.
― Tim F, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 05:42 (thirteen years ago) link
sorry :(
― i genuinely thought when i first joined that he was the admin (ilxor), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 05:54 (thirteen years ago) link
what is "all the lovers"?
― The Reverend, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 05:57 (thirteen years ago) link
Kylie
― Zsa Zsa Gay Bar (jaymc), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 06:01 (thirteen years ago) link
Rising sales in digital tracks still haven't come close to making up for album sales' plummet over the past decade, and probably never will.
Yeah, but album sales from a decade ago were artificially inflated due to the death of the single (i.e. there was nothing else to buy other than the entire album). AFAIC, the relative proportion of album and singles sales are reaching more natural and realistic levels now.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 06:10 (thirteen years ago) link
eminem, a pop star whose profile was highest a decade ago? its 30 year old stans buying his records now.
LOL, dude, eminem is like the rap equivalent of like The Offspring or The Red Hot Chili Peps or Metallica or the Doors where his shit is appealing to old nostalgia folks AND huge groups of new young ppl looking for timeless cool things.
it's not a bunch of fat, balding 30 y/os that keep Fuse in business, since they're playing Eminem like all the live long day
― nog it out with (Whiney G. Weingarten), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 06:16 (thirteen years ago) link
Like the record store in my shitty nowhere Florida in-my-world-of-suburban/-ppl hometown like sold more copies of this http://canadaconnections.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Eminem-Presents-The-Re-Up-2006.jpgthan like anything in 2007 just because it had the word "Eminem" on the cover.
― nog it out with (Whiney G. Weingarten), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 06:21 (thirteen years ago) link
Also this year:
•The Kanye is selling HORRIBLY for them•No one has ever asked for Yelawolf•They can't keep Haystak CDs in the store
So obviously somewhere kids are still buying gangsta rap on physical formats
― nog it out with (Whiney G. Weingarten), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 06:22 (thirteen years ago) link
Waka sold ok for the first few weeks, btw
― nog it out with (Whiney G. Weingarten), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 06:23 (thirteen years ago) link
yah but nowhere near the scale of how he would have sold in the late 90s
ive said this before but c-murder went platinum back then
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 06:56 (thirteen years ago) link
and i dont think u are really contradicting me re: eminem, whiney
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 06:58 (thirteen years ago) link
Haha ilxor I expected as much. Earnest radio rock-pop really is the final frontier.
― Tim F, Tuesday, 28 December 2010 07:15 (thirteen years ago) link
my girl basically just listens to old mexican italo sounding ishhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ud5CTzlQGWU
idgi but its pretty entertainingi think this stuff she remembers from when she was a kid
she doesnt really listen to new stuff
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 07:36 (thirteen years ago) link
i shouldnt say thats all she listens to lol. but it gets a lot of play
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 07:37 (thirteen years ago) link
yeah, i def feel u re: ratios of selling. I'm just not buying this "whole generation that doesn't buy music." Considering a) Some kids are clearly buying Taylor Swift, b) Some kids are clearly buying Arcade Fire and c) Some kids are clearly buying gangsta rap. Like the kids who would be buying C-Murder tapes aren't just saying "oh well" and downloading Tum Tum or whatever, there's a whole bunch of SOMEBODY buying Teflon Don and Flockaveli and 8Ball/MJG and Boosie Bad Ass. I think the real disconnect is that there's less physical copies of rap records (meaning less artists being promoted by labels) than during it's 90s boom years
And whoever said the Korn thing is right. I don't think there's any reason to think rap has a bigger "download-to-purchase" ratio than any other youth-focused genre...
― nog it out with (Whiney G. Weingarten), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 07:41 (thirteen years ago) link
ok, now i disagree
1) there really is a whole lot of people who dont buy music now, incl regular '12 cd people' tim was talking about above,
2) how do you know the age of ppl buying arcade fire -- arent they, like, NPR artists? my dad told me recently hes heard a lot of good music from brooklyn. i know we imagine some fantasyland hipster listening to stuff like that, but its really middle-america friendly and those are the people buying CDs.
3) gangster rap is still selling, dont get me wrong, im arguing that its been disporportionately hit (i mean, why do you think it is that there are fewer physical copies of rap records?? fewer people are buying them). I mean, why is it that jay-z, kanye and drake sell more records? because theyve crossed over to a yuppy late 20s - early 30s & even presidential demographic! i mean, obama saying he listens to jay-z isnt him being down with 'the kids,' its him being a middle-aged yuppie who isnt scared of rap but certainly isnt bumping 'money cash hoes'
4) flockaveli and boosie and 8ball and mjg (esp 8ball and mjg! how many copies do you think they sold this year??) are popular but their sales arent in line with their level of popularity regardless. yes, lots of people are saying "oh well" and downloading tum tum ... and flockaveli. its a tribute to how popular waka is that hes able to move any copies at all in this kind of an industry.
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 07:47 (thirteen years ago) link
if you think 'the masses' havent figured out how to google .zips of the latest records u are tripping
― lyrics is weak ... like clock radio similes (deej), Tuesday, 28 December 2010 07:49 (thirteen years ago) link