rolling American football death spiral thread

I ask as a curious observer, not as a partisan of any kind: how much longer can a game that is being revealed as fundamentally unsafe survive in a litigious culture?

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/01/13/3179926/dan-le-batard-jason-taylors-pain.html

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/hotread-kickoffs/should-nfl-eliminate-kickoffs-pursuit-safer-game

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7559458/cte-concussion-crisis-economic-look-end-football

The NFL is connected to untold billions of dollars, current players are aware of the risks - I don't think lawsuits are going to bring down the NFL soon.

Parents not letting kids play football, OTOH, could eventually do some damage.

cigarettes are fundamentally unsafe and lotsa people still smoke, after decades of this being public knowledge. I think we could be at or near 'peak football' in some ways - who knows what's gonna happen to cable tv, will middle class parents be less likely to let their kids play hs football? yeah I think that's likely.

but will people still watch other peoples kids get hurt? sure. the sport that's grown the most over the last decade involves people kicking the shit out of each other. there isn't even a ball, they just kick the shit out of each other. it is very clearly not good for your health. I can see football losing a lot of its pure apple pie american charm as it gets more and more associated w/ injuries and less w/ the charming white american quarterback throwing a touchdown in a movie...but that doesn't mean it won't be a multibillion dollar industry for decades to come.

i'm thinking this is going to be a pretty boring story in the end...slow evolution over 30 years into a v. different game that is much less violent

Outside of sports, American human capital and productivity probably rise. No football Saturdays on college campuses means less binge drinking, more studying, better grades, smarter future adults. Losing thousands of college players and hundreds of pro players might produce a few more doctors or engineers. Plus, talented coaches and general managers would gravitate toward management positions in American industry.

lol Grantland

oh my lord who do they think they're kidding

no football?? how in the world am i going to binge drink now????

there was some study that suggested that grades went down when your football program was doing well

i'm sure that's correct but the gas-huffing grantland author seems to assume that ppl won't find something to replace football with.

but stretching that to 'it will reshape american productivity' is obv dumb. the author is tyler cowen and he is kinda a troll ftr.

well lord knows we do need more people vying for "management positions in american industry"

in his foodie economist book that came out last year he suggested not going to restaurants that have attractive women in them

hahahah that sentence is so beautiful i am not even going to investigate further

i think one thing that's out there to "save" football as it stands now is a breakthrough in helmets that substantially lowers head injuries. whether or not that's possible i have no idea.

i have started to think tho that the "parents will stop their kids from playing football" thing is a bit overplayed. there's still riches in football, especially for poor families. maybe some multi-sport high school athletes will choose another sport, but if you're talking about poor kids where football is ingrained in the community (like in south florida) and has a tradition of being an easy way of getting out of a shitty situation... i don't know. you have to have a specific size to play basketball, and baseball is such an intensive sport.

the magic helmet basically isn't possible

yeah

i remember reading once that there's drastically less head injuries in rugby because you have to learn how to tackle without using your head. in football, the helmet gives the feeling of invincibility, so the helmet itself is probably a misnomer anyway

yeah iirc some articles suggest that the existing super-helmets encouraged the trend of head-weaponization in the first place (that I hear exists, I seriously don't watch football or have any idea what they do with their heads. have been watching Friday Night Lights tho)

that's why I'm also kinda skeptical of cad's 'game evolves into something really different for safety reasons' - like marginal safety improvements just don't change the reason why people get concussions when playing this game and aren't gonna make a dent in the rate it happens.

im really thinking more significant rule changes than marginal safety improvements

i think the most realistic change is something that prevents players from playing through injuries. if the NFL has to pai out multiple billions of dollars after all these suits are settled, they would have a real compelling reason to significantly strengthen their rules/regulations so that no player can talk his way out of sitting due to a concussion.

well the big problem goes beyond existing helmets or this helmet or no helmet - it's that concussions happen because your brain is hitting your skull, not because something is hitting your head

xp

as an aside do we have the slightest idea how many head injuries actually happen in rugby? i bet we do not.

i genuinely think football will evolve into a pass-dominant touch-tackle sport

yeah I guess I can see that path as a lot more viable

it helps that it's what people like too

yeah i could see that

Football would be a lot safer if they just replaced tackling with tickling.

lol

I think some are greatly overestimating how much the average fan gives a shit. Most football fans I know rationalize it as some "they knew what they were getting into" BS. The real test will be whether the NFL can survive an ongoing parade of lawsuits, but if they do, I don't think the fanbase is going anywhere.

These stories keep leaving a really bad taste in my mouth though, I feel a shameful complicity in just having watched the game...

i remember reading once that there's drastically less head injuries in rugby because you have to learn how to tackle without using your head. in football, the helmet gives the feeling of invincibility, so the helmet itself is probably a misnomer anyway

― J0rdan S., Thursday, January 17, 2013 4:40 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

In football you can play to the whistle and have 30 seconds to recover or leave the field, so in that timeframe all manner of violence can occur. Rugby has (more) sustained play so you couldn't have that kind of behavior or half the field would have injured dudes on it.

back before helmets people were getting killed in football all the time so I'm skeptical that they're a net negative

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6fejWutXCk

I've never heard about pre-helmet deaths - AFAICT only one NFL player has ever died on the field.

i think the most realistic change is something that prevents players from playing through injuries. if the NFL has to pai out multiple billions of dollars after all these suits are settled, they would have a real compelling reason to significantly strengthen their rules/regulations so that no player can talk his way out of sitting due to a concussion.

"In 1905, there was roughly one-fifth the number of college football players as there are today, yet, 18 were killed and 159 severely injured in that one year alone. "

sounds like a good way for weasel coaches to get extra timeouts

the solution is very simpe, guys: everybody should watch basketball instead

Football in 1905 didn't look much like today's game. What about 1945 or 1950?

I should think that the NFL is in no immediate danger of being litigated out of existance. After all, US courts tolerated the buying and selling of baseball players as chattel for a century. Almost 100% of modern american football players would be avid to sign away any and all rights they might have for redress of injuries, just for the chance to play in the NFL.

kind of interesting to think of all the brain damage O.J. Simpson was probably living with for the last 30 years

Football in 1905 didn't look much like today's game. What about 1945 or 1950?

― Kiarostami bag (milo z), Thursday, January 17, 2013 1:00 PM (33 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

football in 1905 didn't look much like today's game because the forward pass was invented to stop people from dying so much

I think the comparable sport here has to be boxing. It's not dead, but it's nowhere near as popular as it was last century, and I think football will head that way as people get turned off by the dawning understanding of the physical toll. (I'd like to see radio/tv numbers for how popular boxing has been over the last century.)

boxing was never as popular as football is right now tho

even in boxing's heyday i don't think it compares to football right now

it's hard to compare eras like that regardless

but I do think that, the two paths are either cad's high scoring touch football or wmc's game that's viewed as less family friendly and more masculine a la boxing etc. like your mom won't be organizing the super bowl party.

two other things that affect its future are going to be what happens to streaming video / cable / broadcast advertising etc and what happens to the american university system over the coming decades.

The biggest factors in the demise of boxing were first, overexposure, next widespread corruption, and lastly, unbridled greed that broke up the "world championship" titles into fragments. The NFL is flirting heavily with overexposure, but there is no hint atm that the games are fixed or the refs have been bought, and the NFL's central management is keeping conflict within the league from causing overt problems.

Aimless OTM. I don't think brutality means a thing.

MMA has picked up ground on boxing because the UFC acts as the central body with the true champs, doesn't protect up and comers to the degree of boxing, etc., despite being viscerally more brutal. (though, actually, I'd rather have my kid take up MMA than boxing - less dangerous to his or her brain).

oops, didn't edit - I don't think brutality was key in boxing's decline - that goes mostly to corruption and the way corruption screwed up the heavyweights. Plus better money in other sports and a cultural emphasis on team sports.

football in 1905 didn't look much like today's game because the forward pass was invented to stop people from dying so much

Should have been the forward kick.

Speaking of football, I wonder if they limited substitutions like in soccer, would that change on-field behavior?

i really loved jackson as a player, this is a hard read.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/16/sports/football/vincent-jackson-death-cte.html

http://i.imgur.com/Pn8OxXO.png
so uh are we 100% sure belichick didn't do this intentionally to fuck goodell

or to fuck the giants?

why not both

Kind of hilarious how the nfl has back to back weekends of fantastic games then we all get reminded how it is in fact a radioactive wasteland as an organization

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/3/7/22966292/calvin-ridley-gambling-suspension-atlanta-falcons

I cannot believe that this kind of shit still goes on. Infuriating.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/28/nyregion/buffalo-bills-stadium-deal.html

It is infuriating, and even more to hear idiot NFL fans championing that kind of shit. A few years ago, when the Chicago Bears started making noise about moving out to the suburbs, I couldn't believe how many dipshits were actually arguing for this type of deal to keep them happy.

not gonna be a banner week for the league

this was disturbing

it is really astonishing how the NFL tears through running backs (and also how people like walter payton or frank gore lasted as long as they did)

todd gurley's last season was as a 26yo. for these very reasons i can't blame le'veon bell for holding out when he did (he was also 26) but then he was basically done. derrick henry is going to keel over at any moment. the colts may ruin jonathan taylor before he turns 25

needless to say, teams realize this -- that running backs are more or less fungible -- so these guys never even get paid before being replaced by someone younger/cheaper/less crippled

it was even worse when the standard for almost EVERY team was running feature backs into the ground for 300-400 carries a season, causing them to be effectively finished after 3 or 4 seasons

still happens, not quite as bad, but teams will always prioritize their WRs over their RBs nowadays. the WRs will get the paydays while the RBs are jettisoned when they get too expensive.

Barry Sanders was smart to retire in his prime. Fuck the record books.

always makes me think of Joe Posnanski's article about Priest Holmes

https://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/priest-holmes-real-life-or-fantasy/

and then the follow up after Luck suddenly retired

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/ignore-the-pain

northside isd legends frogbs, m bison, and priest holmes

Will Damar Hamlin’s near-death change anything? I wish it would be so. This game needs to go.

It may fade a bit, but it won't go away. Boxing still makes some people a ton of money.

doubt it. on the one hand, any added scrutiny on the safety of football is obviously productive. on the other hand, if it's determined that he went into cardiac arrest bcuz of a benign but specifically timed impact to the chest (as ppl have speculated) then i doubt anything will meaningfully happen bcuz there isn't much you can do aside from outright eradicating the sport which we know isn't going to happen. also i think ppl could rightly argue that this was a freak incident when you consider how often similar instance of impact have happened across football over many years w/o something like this ocurring.

i guess the question for me is if they determine that there is something specific to football that caused this and makes it more likely to happen again in the future, bcuz there are plenty of other sports (hockey, basketball, rugby etc) where players get hit in the chest in ways that are considered routine to the sport and not dangerous w/in that context. also, high level athletics can exacerbate underlying heart issues (if not previously detected) even w/o any impact i.e. christian eriksen's cardiac arrest and resuscitation in the 2020 euros or keyontae johnson who was a college basketball player who collapsed on the court in 2020 as well. it's possible this was caused by the physical exertion of playing a pro sport than something specific to football

in any event, there's been some really scary concussions this year (tua in the bengals game in particular) that feel endemic to football specifically vs other sports, and we've seen the NFL attempt to address concerns stemming from the tua injury in ways that have seemed rather disorganized, on-the-fly, ineffective and circumnavigable. so i wouldn't hold out much hope that anything will change bcuz the incentive in an industry (any industry, really) w/ so much money at stake (in various ways) will always be to push safety of the vulnerable to the side in pursuit of the jackpot at the end of the rainbow

yeah i dont see this changing anything, maybe a new protective plate over the chest cavity for this specific area of impact.

I’d be stunned if it resulted in even that kind of thing, beyond some players choosing to wear a specific plate. I haven’t seen that tackle but from my understanding it didn’t even look particularly hard, but if the hit was the direct cause he must have been hit at just the right spot with just the right amount of total impact. Which kind of reminds me in a way of dale Earnhardt’s death, he spun out in a way that was pretty “normal” for a nascar race but hit the wall at just the right angle to be killed instantly.

I think if Hamlin had a specific medical issue that was underlying, that’s even less of a reason for the nfl to do the right thing and enforce more protection for the players. It can just be chalked up to the individual and not the sport.

because it often involves 90 mins of running around in the sun, cardiac issues have been at the forefront in association football for quite a while, I mean have a look at this list

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_association_footballers_who_died_while_playing

what it has meant for bigger clubs is comprehensive monitoring of heart health, for example Sergio Aguero retired due to an arrhythmia just after transferring to Barcelona in 2021.

don't know that much about American football but would imagine the concussions are a much greater threat.

yeah sudden cardiac death in soccer is HUUUGE, probably one reason they wear those electronic bra-looking things under their jerseys (well that and just the coach knowing when to sub them out).

American football, besides leaving the game with the equivalent of 75-year old limbs, you might also leave with CTE and cognitive problems that go unresolved for the rest of your life. lots of suicides among retired players.

in the NFL the game is very much short burst type exertion rather than running around constantly the whole time, plus generally speaking players are only on the field half of the game vs potentially the whole game (not to mention special teams players who are on the field only briefly during kickoffs/returns/etc.)

America is as likely to rethink football for its brutality as we are to stop going to restaurants because of latin worker exploitation, which is to say we know what the problem is but we don't ultimately care enough to change. i am totally okay with anyone who continues to watch the game but I had to stop a few years ago when i realized that sooner or later i was gonna watch someone killed on the field if i didn't and that there's a faint but true whiff of culpability that goes along with that.

i think one of the nfls biggest issues is what this guy is talking about:

Here's the scary side of the Damar Hamlin story nobody but @Gbush91 wants to talk about. pic.twitter.com/X4Wgx0dXs4

— Ultimate Cleveland Sports Show (@ultCLEsports) January 4, 2023

yeah that part of it definitely crossed my mind. he's a second year player. hopefully this is high profile enough that they'll make an exception for him but there's still a huge underlying issue here.

The guy in Spottie's link is otm. You don't hear about this shit because the networks have a vested interest in keeping the nfl money machine churning. even the players association leadership will pussyfoot around this because they're the ones who negotiated the CBA.

anyone playing in the NFL who isn't kicking is entering a lottery where they're putting up their bodies in exchange for the opportunity to be rich through their forties. seem like the chance of generational wealth is roughly equivalent with dying in your forties.

hit to the chest/heart has killed a few cricket players too

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatalities_while_playing_cricket

Another reason to deny football any viewership and to agitate against it, if even in conversation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/05/us/damar-hamlin-prayers-football-religion.html

Football remains king.

NFL made up 82 of the top 100 most-watched U.S. TV broadcasts in 2022.

(📊 @LevAkabas/@sportico) pic.twitter.com/9QiyKItUJj

— Mark J. Burns (@markjburns88) January 6, 2023

I mean, we live in a depraved and broken country.

surprised the season finale of squid game didn't make it on there

wait for the reality remake

Bigger sham: NIL collectives not coordinating with athletics departments or Super PACs not coordinating with candidates

For those of you who, like me, have purposefully avoided NFL news, this is a useful summary: https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/2/6/23583787/the-uncomfortable-messy-truth-of-watching-the-nfl

If those ugly headlines won’t force a moral reckoning, what will?

Possibly a player who is popular enough to be known by non-fans being decapitated on-air during a game. If his parents protest. Possibly.

Holy shit @ the cost of the NFL Sunday Ticket package via Youtube TV - $350+$70/mo or $450 and only Sunday day games no Thursday/Sunday/Monday night.

Good.

haha, of fucking course. there goes my plan to surprise mom with Giants games.

idk i might still do it.

Tired of the tropes in this article. This guy is in complete denial that he’s aiding and abetting the untimely and early deaths of people in his community, not helping them “find a way out.”

Free article here

Slightly unexpected, in that this is illustrated by David Squires -- normally doing (the other kind of) football, this is his first specific one about the American version I can think of:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2023/sep/06/david-squires-on-eric-smith-and-the-nfls-toll-on-one-players-mind-and-body

Completely wrecked by this feature.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/16/us/cte-youth-football.html

wow

that was tough to get through

One thing that happens in that video happens to me, tho obviously I don't have a son, nor one that plays football—

but whenever I pass by a football field, and see all these young men and boys tackling each other, I am overwhelmed with sadness and anger. Just seems so senseless.

i *almost* played football in high school. several of the PE coaches saw me running track and tried to recruit me to play wide receiver, which in retrospect feels more like recruiting a kid for the military. i actually really enjoyed playing football casually at local parks, where my friends and i were definitely tackling each other, but we were also not beating the hell out of each other. but HS football was a different trip. i didn't want to get hit head-on while catching a pass, to get a limb snapped during a tackle, it just generally seemed like a bad idea. i'd seen enough clips of gritty chicago bears wideout tom waddle getting assassinated in the red zone by opposing safeties to know i didn't want that to happen to me.

I played in high school and have heard the comparisons to the military before, twice by teammates who wound up enlisting. I guess its mostly in the way they really do try to break you down and convince you that the only virtue is to give more than your body can handle, and that anything less is not only shameful but also an act of cowardice that lets down your teammates. Well they don't quite say it in those words but still. I played basketball too and it definitely was not like that. But football is a very different sport, I mean if you play you will get hurt, simple as that.

I don't think I was really ever at 100%, but especially after 5 games or so, you get one side of your body hurt, so you overcompensate and get the other side hurt as well, and there's a certain point where after the 2nd quarter you just want it to be over. That kind of made me wince when they decided to extend the NFL schedule by a game, I mean it's those last few that really suck for these guys. I played about half at tight end, which made you susceptible to some really big hits, and after a couple of those you just really really did not want the ball to come your way. I also played on the OL which gets you hurt in a different, more mundane sort of way. The soreness I felt the morning after some of those games...yeesh. Sometimes I'd be lined up against a guy who not only had 30-40 pounds on me but was faster than me as well. Those games were hell, especially since the only reason I was in that position is because my school was small, so we just kinda had who we had. There wasn't really anyone who could help. I think one game I basically held on every single play, because if I didn't the QB was gonna get killed, and we were already on our 3rd one. I'm proud to say I only got flagged twice but only because even holding didn't slow the guy down much.

That said I'm still glad I played, I mean some of it really was fun and I think the bonds you make really are something special. But yeah at the end of every season I just thought "fuck this, I'm not playing next year", and then I'd kinda get pressured into doing it anyway, not that it would take much. I guess I'm lucky nothing serious ever happened.