average new cases and hospitalizations have been ticking up in Austin over the last week+
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 19:08 (three years ago) link
everything plateaued, so they opened things up without letting real decreases happen, genius move
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 19:09 (three years ago) link
In all fairness, what even is a "plateau"
― I am a free. I am not man. A number. (Neanderthal), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 19:25 (three years ago) link
In this context, I believe it means something like 'when people really really want to start doing normal things again, no seriously like really a lot, do you even know how boring it is being inside all the time'.
― Fun-Loving and Furry-Curious! (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 19:28 (three years ago) link
Nothing on the top but a bucket and a mopAnd an illustrated book about birds
― pomenitul, Tuesday, 2 June 2020 19:29 (three years ago) link
otm
― valet doberman (Jon not Jon), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 20:21 (three years ago) link
where is charley harper when we need him most
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 20:27 (three years ago) link
I've hardly thought about COVID all week (and yes, "I'm dreading the numbers 4-6 weeks from now"). Has this been posted on any of the relevant threads?
http://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-03-20-intl/h_d9360b4e277953a4490fa5ee17285938
He's always seemed pretty cautious with such pronouncements.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 14:55 (three years ago) link
The plan is to manufacture doses of the vaccine even before it is clear whether the vaccines work, making close to 100 million doses by November or December, Fauci said. That’s so if it does work, it can be deployed quickly.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 15:00 (three years ago) link
I saw that after I posted--he still sounds optimistic.
“Which tells us, that if the body is capable of making an immune response to clear the virus of natural infection, that’s a pretty good proof of concept,” Fauci said. “Having said that, there is never a guarantee.”
He was a 12-18 months person early on with regards to a vaccine, so early 2021 almost fits that timeline--maybe 2-3 months ahead.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 15:04 (three years ago) link
"The US should have 100 million doses of one candidate Covid-19 vaccine by the end of the year, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said Tuesday.
“Then, by the beginning of 2021, we hope to have a couple hundred million doses,” Fauci said during a live question and answer session with the Journal of the American Medical Association.
uh, what happens between the end of this year and the beginning of 2021? do all other objects get doubled as well? might be a good time to put all your money out on the lawn, make a quick profit for the new year
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 15:55 (three years ago) link
lol
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 3 June 2020 15:58 (three years ago) link
please touch the Orb of Doubling again Mr. President
― frogbs, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:01 (three years ago) link
but the Orb of Doubling carries a 10% chance of losing it all!!
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:02 (three years ago) link
tbh 2020 is the kind of year where you roll the dice anyway
The second one is a quote, and the first is a weird summary of a quote from one of those guys that's always keen to have an argument about how many 'several' is, and you can tell that he wants the answer to be 'seven'
― Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:02 (three years ago) link
Cases in Texas are on the rise. So is the positive rate. pic.twitter.com/Qa4iGquhWf— Topher Spiro (@TopherSpiro) June 2, 2020
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:19 (three years ago) link
^ whole state-by-state rundown thread, fyi
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:21 (three years ago) link
Meanwhile, I think I saw (and while the exact numbers may be off the gist remains the same) that after a bunch of contact tracing in Hong Kong, they determined that a small handful of super-spreader events accounted for a huge number of cases, but of those who contracted Covid, 70% did not pass it along. For some reason certain people just spread the fuck out of this.
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:24 (three years ago) link
We don't know if it's the individual or the situation they're in, though. Or some combination.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:34 (three years ago) link
Like, 25 people all with the same viral load will probably spread a lot differently depending on whether they're sitting home or eating in a crowded restaurant.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:35 (three years ago) link
I mean just the variation in respiratory physiology and your manner of speaking could explain it. You could be a confident braying firehose of coronavirus vs some other person with gnarled and turbid sinuses that speaks to the floor in whispers.
― avellano medio inglés (f. hazel), Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:53 (three years ago) link
Elevated levels in TX are definitely worrying me, hoping it's a bump since so many people seem to be doing a good job of sticking to masks and distancing.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:59 (three years ago) link
a confident braying firehose of coronavirus
lol I needed this, thank you
― sleeve, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 17:12 (three years ago) link
*You could be a confident braying firehose of coronavirus vs some other person with gnarled and turbid sinuses that speaks to the floor in whispers.*
Being a shoegazer rather than a death metaller finally pays off
― kinder, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 17:16 (three years ago) link
I saw Braying Firehose open for the Turbid Sinuses back in '93.
― i am not throwing away my snot (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 3 June 2020 17:26 (three years ago) link
thanking u
― gnarled and turbid sinuses (Jon not Jon), Wednesday, 3 June 2020 17:33 (three years ago) link
I believe it depends on what you're doing and where you are - if you're at a choir or singing in a church or an exercise class or in a loud bar where you have to shout you're much more likely to be blowing it out there. It's not that some individuals are just biologically less likely to spread it.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 20:49 (three years ago) link
some details on "superspreader" events here, it does seem possible that it is activity-related:
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/05/22/superspreaders
― sleeve, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 21:22 (three years ago) link
scene immunity not herd immunity
― avellano medio inglés (f. hazel), Wednesday, 3 June 2020 22:39 (three years ago) link
A++
― kinder, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 22:41 (three years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z45yWIXipy8
― How I Wrote Neuroplastic Man (James Redd and the Blecchs), Wednesday, 3 June 2020 22:44 (three years ago) link
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/brazil-stops-releasing-covid-19-death-toll-and-wipes-data-from-official-site
― pomenitul, Sunday, 7 June 2020 18:04 (three years ago) link
Fuck Bolsonaro
― I am a free. I am not man. A number. (Neanderthal), Sunday, 7 June 2020 19:02 (three years ago) link
I hope you weren’t single when the music stoppedhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 8 June 2020 16:00 (three years ago) link
The situation in Singapore is horrific. They were proudly boasting about no new infections for days on end when it was spreading, untested, in migrant worker dorms. Now they're paying attention, they have 400-600 cases each day, 99.8% of which are in dormitories.
― ShariVari, Monday, 8 June 2020 16:08 (three years ago) link
does that mean it's at least semi-contained, or at least they're able to do contact tracing?
also it feels really weird to look at "400-600 cases each day" and think "wow, i can't wait to chicago gets to that point" :(
― Karl Malone, Monday, 8 June 2020 16:46 (three years ago) link
It is contained in as much as migrant workers aren’t infecting anyone else, not contained when it comes to them infecting each other. The conditions people live in (cramped multiple occupancy spaces, shared bathrooms, etc) mean social distancing is impossible.
― ShariVari, Monday, 8 June 2020 17:58 (three years ago) link
so we're back to this now?
https://www.nbc4i.com/news/u-s-world/who-asymptomatic-spread-of-coronavirus-is-rare/
― Dig Dug the police (Neanderthal), Monday, 8 June 2020 22:49 (three years ago) link
WHO has always been sceptical about the asymptomatic transmission fear I think.
― Alba, Monday, 8 June 2020 23:06 (three years ago) link
yeah, on re-reading, they have been. i agree with continuing to minimize risk since others have been less confident in that (and Sweden seems to be outright saying they fucked up with their approach), but...wish there was something resembling consensus, though I know that's nigh impossible when we know so little about the disease.
― Dig Dug the police (Neanderthal), Monday, 8 June 2020 23:08 (three years ago) link
which speaking of, the WHO initially praised Sweden, whose approach is now blowing up in its face:
https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-testing-lags-patients-say-they-cant-be-treated-2020-6
WHO (& CDC!) was anti-masks for way too long. Perhaps they were trying to curb civilian demand while ramping up PPE for medical usage but I'll never forget that massive misstep.
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331693/WHO-2019-nCov-IPC_Masks-2020.3-eng.pdf
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Monday, 8 June 2020 23:34 (three years ago) link
" ... many [people reported to be asymptomatic carriers] turn out to have mild disease, or unusual symptoms ... "
the distinction between "truly asymptomatic" and "symptomatic, but not obviously so" is irrelevant to most transmission scenarios
― Brad C., Monday, 8 June 2020 23:34 (three years ago) link
Agreeing with Trump on anything makes me want to vomit, but the WHO's responses have been questionable during a lot of this.
― Nhex, Tuesday, 9 June 2020 03:42 (three years ago) link
I don't think that's quite agreeing with him, but it is true.
The WHO and similar orgs are never going to get the fact that medical literalism does not translate into clear and helpful guidance for the general public.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 9 June 2020 04:17 (three years ago) link
New case and hospitalization numbers have been slightly elevated in Austin, TX over the last couple weeks as things start re-opening, but today's new case number is a significant spike, the highest single day total so far, and 30% more than the previous high from last week. I don't know if this is a true spike or is related to possible increased testing, but it is very worrisome. Average hospitalizations appear to be holding steady for the moment.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 9 June 2020 16:03 (three years ago) link
One thing that I'm seeing that is a bit reassuring is that since the end of last week, the city has opened testing to people without symptoms and has been recommending that protesters get tested. Their online assessment tool has recommended testing for 4000 people, which is way more than the number that was getting recommended prior to June.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 9 June 2020 16:10 (three years ago) link
the testing is still only really for active infections right, not antibodies?
― avellano medio inglés (f. hazel), Tuesday, 9 June 2020 16:27 (three years ago) link
There are at least clinics in Austin like ARC that offer antibody testing.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 9 June 2020 16:31 (three years ago) link