outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

every time this stuff gets in the news i have an anxiety attack just reading about it

do you think we're all going to die of a plague, soon?

I watched Contagion 2x in a row on a recent intercontinental flight and within 24 hours of landing I was sicker than I can ever remember being.

-Peter

that was a scary one because you know that's exactly how it's going to go down, too

my dad is of the opinion that we're all gonna drop dead from mad cow disease eventually from a lifetime of pink slime exposure

Ebola in Uganda, new flu killing East Coast seals...

Who the HECK would choose Contagion for in-flight programming???

-Peter

There is still this other side of me that wishes I'd embarked on one of my many fig tree dream careers of epidemiologist. I really get a kick form this kind of thing. Someday we will all be dead.

So how worried should we be now, anyway.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/25/us-heath-ebola-nigeria-idUSKBN0FU1LE20140725

Fanning flames, paranoia: http://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/New-fears-about-Ebola-spread-after-plane-scare-5651721.php

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — No one knows for sure just how many people Patrick Sawyer came into contact with the day he boarded a flight in Liberia, had a stopover in Ghana, changed planes in Togo, and then arrived in Nigeria, where authorities say he died days later from Ebola, one of the deadliest diseases known to man.

Now health workers are scrambling to trace those who may have been exposed to Sawyer across West Africa, including flight attendants and fellow passengers.

Health experts say it is unlikely he could have infected others with the virus that can cause victims to bleed from the eyes, mouth and ears. Still, unsettling questions remain: How could a man whose sister recently died from Ebola manage to board a plane leaving the country? And worse: Could Ebola become the latest disease to be spread by international air travel?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/ebola-virus-top-sierra-leone-doctor-shek-umar-dies-of-disease-9636406.html

Sierra Leone's top virologist has died in the current outbreak.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/05/health/patient-at-mount-sinai-has-ebola-like-symptoms-hospital-says.html

This is terrible, reports of hospitals shutting their doors, infected rotting corpses in the streets and ebola nurses downing tools after not getting paid measly $30 a week risk money pledged by the Sierra Leone gvt. Conditions described as "medieval" in parts where the health system has totally collapsed.

i heard a woman talking on the radio about it the other day and she was not holding back about how grim it was -- she was a reporter but i don't remember her name
she used the same analogy, like it was medieval in terms of what people believe about medicine as well as the degree to which people receive/shun medical care when they need it

Little did we know all the right wing survivalists had the right idea for the wrong reason. It's not Obama they should fear, but ebola.

I read an article about the stress of being an ebola nurse. Encased in completely enveloping PPE in a hot climate for 12 + hour shifts. Dealing with infectious, dying patients that constantly fall out of beds, spray blood and diarrhea all over the place. The people that deal with these patients ... I just have no idea where they get their courage from.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-armed-men-attack-liberia-ebola-clinic-freeing-patients/

holy shit

Yeah,

Plague Inc is my favorite game

http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/08/19/341412011/shadow-and-d-12-sing-an-infectious-song-about-ebola?

dr. brantly speaking now, was just discharged from emory

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/tests-under-way-for-ebola-following-donegal-death-1.1904073

Shit got real. school with this guys sister

Pharmeceutical industry person tries to defend the industry re charges they have not done enough re ebola because it is in poor countries

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnlamattina/2014/08/18/washington-post-off-base-in-critiquing-pharma-efforts-in-ebola/

the incentives for the pharmaceutical industry are what they are, unfortunately

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/08/25/ebolanomics

Irish guy didn't have Ebola. Was a false alarm.

South Africa and Senegal trying to bar some folks from countries at issue from entry

First US case in Dallas. Take that NYC & LA! We're number one!

Yikes!

I wonder how many crisis of this kind will happen before countries take the WHO seriously and decide to invest in a proper international health structure to prevent this kind of outbreak. Freaking hate to see institutions like the FMI giving up to 130 millions $ but then pressure politicians in the region to go for austerity, it's a waste of money for everyone.

ebola USED to be at the top of my list of irrational fears. presbyterian hospital is about 5 miles north of where i'm sitting right now.

welp

#patientzero

The Frontline piece on this a week or so ago was eye-opening. Hospitals that are barely more than cordoned off fields, mass graves, disinfecting the back of trucks (where patients ride, near death) by tossing in buckets of bleach, doctors and other aid workers more or less forced to visit villages free of any special suits for fear of scaring the shit out of everyone, children orphaned and alone overnight. Just heartbreaking. It's both a matter of doctors struggling to keep up with a rapidly and easily spreading illness and a population almost impossible to isolate. Bodies being dumped and left by the side of the road, families taking members out of quarantine, superstitious treatments co-mingling with modern medicine ...

Here: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/ebola-outbreak/

The saddest bit may be at the end, where grave diggers, one by one, list all their families members who have succumbed.

I'm just a few miles further away, art. Drive by it almost every day as I head up to Richardson.

Your risk of dying from ebola (total confirmed 2014 ebola deaths: a few thousand worldwide) is still lower than your risk of dying due to complications related to seasonal influenza (on average, 5800-7500 a year in the US). Get a flu shot. Don't get too preoccupied by ebola.

wanna c&p that on every damn facebook post I see for the next week

be my guest

i have total confidence in the medical system to properly handle any other arising cases. that said, i am still illogically terrified

Sick Burn I saw on FB:

Don't worry about Ebola spreading in Dallas. The Cowboys have shown us that people in Dallas can't catch anything.

Ebola spreads by physical contact with bodily secretions and fluids. That makes it easier to contain in a place like the USA or Europe, where there are lots of medical facilities and a patient's recent contacts can be quickly discovered and tracked down.

Even so, if ebola strongly establishes itself in Africa, with a reservoir of infected people who keep the virus continuously viable and circulating, then not only will massive numbers of africans die, but ebola will keep leaping to other parts of the world, including the USA and Europe. It can be compared to sparks thrown out from a wildfire, which land on tinder and start other fires away from the main fire. You can put out many of these small satellite fires, but it is hard to extinguish all of them, and the more new places that start burning the harder the firestorm is to keep contained.

That's a good analogy. I really wish international focus between the Ebola outbreak and ISIL was better divided.

run for the hills imo

*not the hills of West Africa, tho*

http://i.imgur.com/LHm72Rq.png

ugh goddamned parody accounts :(

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/world/africa/ebola-spreading-in-west-africa.html

this is a very difficult article to read

apparently the problem is not money but organization and time

Oh jeez:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/02/texas-ebola_n_5919522.html

at what point is it ok for me to start panicking?

supposed to go to the state fair this weekend and have resolved not to touch any surfaces and to bathe myself in hand sanitizer after it is all over.

the panic is hilarious. Especially from folks who drive on the streets of Dallas. You should be much more afraid of north Texas drivers than ebola.

until there is an effective vaccine I consider ebola as a threat, but in the USA it is a long term threat, which gives the researchers plenty of time to develop that vaccine.

truly despicable imo for rand paul, a physician, to be saying things like this to score political points

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/sen-rand-paul-sounds-ebola-alarm/

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/world/africa/ebola-spreading-in-west-africa.html

this is a very difficult article to read

apparently the problem is not money but organization and time

― I dunno. (amateurist), Wednesday, October 1, 2014 7:27 PM (Yesterday

disorganization and lack of preparedness (not to mention distrust of medical authorities, belief in traditional healing, etc) are consequences of poverty, though. this was from a few weeks ago but i think it's a good primer

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1409494

First, Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia are resource-poor countries already coping with major health challenges, such as malaria and other endemic diseases, some of which may be confused with EVD. Next, their borders are porous, and movement between countries is constant. Health care infrastructure is inadequate, and health workers and essential supplies including personal protective equipment are scarce. Traditional practices, such as bathing of corpses before burial, have facilitated transmission. The epidemic has spread to cities, which complicates tracing of contacts. Finally, decades of conflict have left the populations distrustful of governing officials and authority figures such as health professionals. Add to these problems a rapidly spreading virus with a high mortality rate, and the scope of the challenge becomes clear

the good news is that's clear from the UK that the "dynamics" of this wave, i.e. its duration, are not worse and perhaps slightly better than previous waves. 6-8 weeks to reach the peak of case count, and about 4 months, end to end.

so for the parts of the US that are most similar to the UK, i.e. parts where vaccination rate is around the US average or better and/or huge winter waves giving some "natural" immunity, we should see the same thing. so for example, i'm expecting the wave in LA county to peak in about 3-4 weeks.

new cases for UK reported today: 24,950

xp ah, me otm (although i forgot schools reopen here right when i predict things will be peaking)

The CDC's ensemble of models also is calling for a US peak/plateau in ~3 weeks, so... fingers crossed https://t.co/UWzHdbMZWs

— Ed MD (@notdred) July 26, 2021

(colleges without vaccine mandates are a bigger problem than schools of course)

At the same time she's threatening possible restrictions if cases rise above 200 per day, Mayor Lori Lightfoot is moving forward with plans to bring 100,000 a day to Grant Park for Lollapalooza. https://t.co/AmNnPeU2YI

— Gregory Pratt (@royalpratt) July 26, 2021

Starting to get the feeling that Lightfoot is setting it up so she can blame Lolla when cases rise and she brings back mitigation.

the states of california is one of the top 20 employers in the country, so this and big state schools is a start:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/california-to-require-proof-of-vaccination-for-state-workers/ar-AAMA0Q3

tough break for the NYPD though

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-nyc-covid-de-blasio-vaccinations-all-municipal-workers-20210726-lbkwacchcvhlbbi4yu3qvfcjnq-story.html

does anyone know if amazon, target, mcdonalds, etc. are doing the same thing? does the federal government have a policy yet?

My daughter's college, in the Southeast US is not mandating vaccination, citing peer institutions, which we found disappointing.

Subsequently they announced further details and are requiring vaccines for all "high risk activities," which includes working in food service, activities that require very close contact with others for an extended period of time, athletics, singing and playing music, athletics, etc. All non-vaccinated students will be required to wear masks, engage in social distancing, weekly testing (which they are required to pay for), and 2 week quarantine if exposed to anyone who tests positive.

Seems they are pushing as close to a vaccination mandate as they can without having a declared mandate.

it's hard to read this thread now

it's all so absurd

does the federal government have a policy yet?

answering my own question: not a blanket policy (not yet?)

VA issues employee vaccine mandate for healthcare workers, first for a federal agency, NYT reports https://t.co/dbVVqOP9m4

— Meg Tirrell (@megtirrell) July 26, 2021

In the 15 minutes since my post above they've sent an email updating their vaccination policy (citing Delta). Vaccinations will be mandatory "once a vaccine fully approved by the FDA becomes available."

I have been skeptical that people actually care about the distinction between EUA and "approval" but maybe I was just wrong about this

i don't think anyone who is unvaccinated by choice cares about FDA approval in good faith, but people have made legal arguments related to it in court (where they have failed afaict). full FDA approval would at least cut those arguments off at the knees and avoid wasted time in court.

it's mostly concern trolling

but yes, FDA needs to just fuckin' do it. it would help

Agreed. A new wrinkle my wife saw on a Trumper relatives' FB feed essentially boiled down to: "it hasn't been fully approved because the FDA knows it's dangerous but hasn't figured out how to tell all the sheeple that they fucked up".

btw Sturgis 2021 kicks off in two weeks!

Yup. My uncle and aunt (both unvaccinated) are heading up again this year. They managed to not catch anything last year (or, if they did, managed to get by without letting on to anyone), so I'm sure they are even less concerned this time.

Just so everyone is clear, employers and governments absolutely have the power to mandate vaccines. It's not some close legal issue and the EUA and FDA final approval does not change that.

This is just a matter of small "p" political will to be willing to take the blowback from those who would be angered by a mandate.

As caek alluded to, those truly opposed to vaccination will just move the goal posts once the final FDA approval is granted.

because I'm willin' to be willin'

PBKR, I need you and Ron DeSantis to have a couple beers together.

And put rat poison in Ron's

Lol, I was about to say the exact same thing as Neanderthal before I saw his comment.

helpful!

:)

Nice

COVID vaccines are not perfect. But they are darn good, and keep you alive. Even with delta, alpha, gamma, kappa, lambda, etc.

I'm following Malta (90% vaccinated) and the UK. Look how deaths have stayed low. Couple more weeks to be sure. #GetVaccinated pic.twitter.com/xTZQkf8ylh

— Vincent Rajkumar (@VincentRK) July 30, 2021

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1C6rFWfYMg

My nonexistent sympathy level

https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-michael-brown-038c02dbc512e00b9e08aef98061b13d

Two quotes from different paragraphs of the apnews article:

“I was strongly against getting the vaccine,” Barker said through labored breathing. “Just because we’re a strong conservative family.”

Patients have said they worried about vaccine side effects, or felt the vaccines were rushed out took quickly.

I suspect the first quote represents the reality of vaccine denialism and the second quote reflects the rationalizations people give for what they subconsciously understand is irrational thinking.

A similar story.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/us/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-regret.html

And here: https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2021/07/28/phil-valentine-coronavirus-vaccine

Nashville radio talk show host Phil Valentine remains hospitalized in critical condition with COVID-19 more than two weeks after being admitted for the disease.

Valentine — who broadcasts on SuperTalk 99.7 WTN — was known for his COVID-19 vaccine skepticism.

... Now Phil Valentine wants people to know that he was wrong — and that he should have taken the vaccine. He wants others to reconsider their thoughts on vaccines.

The mood here in Knoxville has shifted dramatically in like just the past 4-5 days. Lots of medical offices have gone back to mandatory masks for everyone, regardless of vaxx status, and people are starting to cancel events again. Which sucks and is totally infuriating because if the unvaccinated half of the population would stop being idiots we'd be in way better shape.

if the unvaccinated half of the population would stop being idiots we'd be in way better shape

I have a nagging suspicion that we will be repeating this over and over throughout the remainder of 2021 (and into 2022???).

This is the end of the thread. I suggest reading the whole thing.

Hearing ends. When court staff arrive at Goodwyn’s home in coming days, if he’s not wearing mask, he’ll be arrested and jailed, per judge. And goodwyn indicated he won’t be wearing one. A Jan 6 defendant who is an anti-masker is facing prospect of jail pretrial

— Scott MacFarlane (@MacFarlaneNews) July 30, 2021

Here on Sanibel in deep red Lee County things have changed. The main office and marina ar our cottages put up mandatory mask signs on their doors. The general store too. I've seen more masked employees and customers around the island yesterday and today than Sunday and Monday.

(For context: Sanibel had mandatory mask ordinances until the CDC announcement in May).

nice

Walmart, the nation's biggest private employer, is requiring its headquarters and regional staff to be vaccinated by Oct. 4, in a move that might set the standard for corporate America to follow. https://t.co/r1WPETMmlr via @business

— Matthew Boyle (@bizboyle) July 30, 2021

oh hell yeah

The vaccines are working. Of the 900 cases related to the Provincetown cluster, there have been no deaths, 7 hospitalizations, and the symptoms are largely mild. Our positivity peaked at 15% on 7/15 and was only 4.8% yesterday. The outbreak is contained and Provincetown is safe.

— Alex Morse (@AlexBMorse) July 30, 2021

legit stunned at the Walmart news

but headquarters and regional staff, does 'regional staff' mean like....all employees or like, regional executives/managers?

Why not their workers? All of them?
Now that would be a major move especially in the South.

If Hooters followed the same policy, and there are more Hooters restaurants in the South than you would imagine, the TWO of them would have a major impact.

— Stuart O'Neill (@stuart_oneill) July 30, 2021

"Staff" is not a word usually dusted off for grocery checkers and warehouse workers.

yeah that was what prompted my question :/.

it's a step though I guess.

Sanibel: where Minnesota goes on vacation.

Why not their workers? All of them?

The other ones are easier to replace when they die iirc

i had a thought come up when i was reading this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/

Walter A. Orenstein, associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center, said he was struck by data showing that vaccinated people who became infected with delta shed just as much virus as those who were not vaccinated. The slide references an outbreak in Barnstable County, Mass., where vaccinated and unvaccinated people shed nearly identical amounts of virus.

“I think this is very important in changing things,” Orenstein said.

A person working in partnership with the CDC on investigations of the delta variant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak, said the data came from a July 4 outbreak in Provincetown, Mass. Genetic analysis of the outbreak showed that people who were vaccinated were transmitting the virus to other vaccinated people. The person said the data was “deeply disconcerting” and a “canary in the coal mine” for scientists who had seen the data.

If the war has changed, as the CDC states, so has the calculus of success and failure. The extreme contagiousness of delta makes herd immunity a more challenging target, infectious-disease experts said.

“I think the central issue is that vaccinated people are probably involved to a substantial extent in the transmission of delta,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist, wrote in an email after reviewing the CDC slides. “In some sense, vaccination is now about personal protection — protecting oneself against severe disease. Herd immunity is not relevant as we are seeing plenty of evidence of repeat and breakthrough infections.”

one thing to note is the bad optics around the type of messaging the US CDC has used (and even other western countries), and how that's pushing away skeptics, which for all intents and purposes, are becoming indistinguishable from anti-vaxxers and anti-science types, because there is no nuanced statistic that divides people into why they decided not to get jabbed.

in one of those massachusetts incidences, the vaccinated were shedding just as much as the unvaccinated, where you see an indistinguishable amount of viral load in both. if the vaccinated are carrying a dangerous amount of viral load in their nose and throat, this completely contradicts what the CDC was saying before. but now that the CDC is aware, sure, masks mandates are needed. the CDC's "simplified messaging" reminds me of workplaces with bad management. when the messaging is simplified to the point that it becomes uncertain and, in worse case, contradictory, you lose your skeptics' trust.

i think most of us can agree that vaccines are needed. but the way the US CDC has gone about this entire pandemic has been disastrous.

think most of us can agree that vaccines are needed

steady on there

Uh, is there a reason you want to call out that specific statement there sic?

I assume that's just an arch commentary on the fact that 'most people' is a bit of a stretch. A majority, anyway, thankfully, if not quite enough of a majority.

More an arch commentary on “most of us” here itt being an understatement!

But even a substantial element of the brain wormed / not getting vaxxed arguers say that it’s bcz everyone else is, so herd immunity

well, i don't follow this thread too closely. this site is my fun-reading time.

i'm so sorry