Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

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http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/10/more-inflation.html

El Tomboto, Thursday, 18 October 2007 23:44 (eleven years ago) Permalink

personally I'm applying for a civil servant position ASAP

El Tomboto, Thursday, 18 October 2007 23:45 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Just FYI, during the 1930s depression, many civil servants were paid with vouchers rather than cash, because local governments were unable to collect property taxes and their receipts fell into the shitbin.

Aimless, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:12 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Economy's doing poorly enough as it stands, why do we deliberately want to roll it into the shitbin?

Abbott, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:14 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Because that way Hillary can rescue us all.

Dandy Don Weiner, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:17 (eleven years ago) Permalink

lol property taxes

El Tomboto, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:18 (eleven years ago) Permalink

shitbin's a great word, BTW.

Dandy Don Weiner, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:20 (eleven years ago) Permalink

you been loving my thread titles lately

El Tomboto, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:26 (eleven years ago) Permalink

i came to this country some time ago with little more than a crippling debt burden in GB Pounds and the shirt on my back. i used to have to send back $1,200 each month to pay off my UK debt, and now I'm sending back over $1,400 to cover the same amount of debt repayment. that's two and a half thousand dollars disappearing from my tiny disposable income every year, for no explicable reason. i *heart* the decline of the US economy.

Roberto Spiralli, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:27 (eleven years ago) Permalink

anyway why start this thread now because the bit where ritholtz points out that domino's pizza can't print new menus fast enough to keep up with inflation was pretty fucking amazing

I wish rasheed wallace was still around to show us the latest and greatest exploding bubble blogs

El Tomboto, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:28 (eleven years ago) Permalink

wow Roberto that was some shitty timing, that sucks

El Tomboto, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:29 (eleven years ago) Permalink

This was in the paper today:

Mortgage defaults

Hit an annual rate of 1.5 million in September. That compares with 900,000 last year from fewer than 800,000 in 2005. At the current rate, more than one million Americans will lose their homes to foreclosure, making this the worst housing recession since the Second World War.

Housing starts

Sank to a 14-year low of 1.19 million in September. Starts are a vital economic engine, creating jobs and growth as people stuff their homes with sofas and TVs. Starts peaked at 2.3 million in early 2006, and the decline will be a drag on the rest of the economy until the slide stops.

Mortgages

A quarter of the roughly 50 million U.S. home mortgages are subprime. That's seven times the number of high-risk mortgages there were in 2001. That means that many more marginal homeowners have mortgages, making it far more likely they'll wind up in default.

House prices

Fell 3.2 per cent in the second quarter. Prices are falling faster and more broadly than they have in decades, according to the closely watched Case-Shiller index.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20071018.IBUSECONOMY18/TPStory/Business

everything, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:29 (eleven years ago) Permalink

where the hell is rasheed anyway?

economic blogs I read (they're all fairly liberal):

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/
http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/
http://www.janegalt.net/

Dandy Don Weiner, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:37 (eleven years ago) Permalink

In regard to inflation, in the USA during the past three years inflation has been soaring - but almost entirely in the housing sector. The fact that people are encouraged to see their houses as investments rather than as expenses doesn't mean that skyrocketing housing costs weren't inflationary. They were.

As the bubble market bursts, I predict a recession with an extra added bonus of inflation running close to 10% - before the end of 2008. As it has for the past 30 years, the official CPI will understate the real inflation rate. It was rigged under Reagan so that government entitlement programs indexed to the CPI would not increase at the true pace of inflation.

If Bush continues to shovel shit on the dollar right up to the end of his term in January 2009, the inflation rate could hit 15%-20% by 2010.

Aimless, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:55 (eleven years ago) Permalink

There are some good economics articles put up here as well:
http://www.VoxEU.org

stet, Friday, 19 October 2007 01:02 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Which shit on the dollar are you referring to?

Dandy Don Weiner, Friday, 19 October 2007 01:02 (eleven years ago) Permalink

As the bubble market bursts, I predict a recession with an extra added bonus of inflation running close to 10% - before the end of 2008.

lol

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, Friday, 19 October 2007 06:11 (eleven years ago) Permalink

this is why i live in canada!

J0rdan S., Friday, 19 October 2007 06:13 (eleven years ago) Permalink

oh wait.

J0rdan S., Friday, 19 October 2007 06:13 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Guys, this is a good time stay in academia right?

Catsupppppppppppppp dude 茄蕃, Friday, 19 October 2007 11:51 (eleven years ago) Permalink

It's a good time to learn a European language.

Nubbelverbrennung, Friday, 19 October 2007 13:33 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Prime shit examples:

When Bush was elected in 2000, the federal budget was in surplus and the national debt was being paid down. Had this state of affairs continued, as projected, it would have led both to lower interest rates and a strong dollar, together. Instead, Bush submitted a series of enormous tax cuts to the Republican-controlled Congress and lobbied them through. Immediately, the CBO's projected budget surpluses turned to projected deficits for the next decade.

Bush also initiated a war of choice, not necessity, in Iraq. This war has already cost well over $700 billion. Yet, Bush insisted on making his tax cuts permanent. Overall, the national debt has increased under Bush by about $2 trillion in seven years. This represents a difference of about $3 trillion of debt from what was projected at the start of his first term.

Because, due to Bush's tax cuts and other policies, the Federal government was in a far weaker position to stimulate the economy when the recession started after 9/11, almost the entire stimulus was delivered via lower interest rates. Because these rate cuts were artificial, and not based on a stronger dollar, this stimulus not only inflated the current housing bubble, but it also undercut the dollar even more than the ballooning national debt did.

Now the dollar is at an all-time low against the euro and the canadian dollar. However, the incomes of the top 10% of American households have increased at a good clip, while the lower 50% of households have seen a decrease in income after inflation. This is largely thanks to Bush's shitty policies. I expect more of the same mismanagement until he is gone.

Aimless, Saturday, 20 October 2007 18:36 (eleven years ago) Permalink

I agree with everything you've just said. You're predictions still seem a tad extreme on the downside though, if I may so.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, Saturday, 20 October 2007 18:50 (eleven years ago) Permalink

i wonder if income inequality will ever arrive as a political issue in this country. americans tend to not begrudge the rich - so it'll have to be more of a "for everyone's good" type of angle. no?

jhøshea, Saturday, 20 October 2007 18:54 (eleven years ago) Permalink

I remember the 1970s and early 80s quite well. Back then people couldn't belileve it, either. Bush has done a bangup job of recreating many of the same policy errors under Johnson and Nixon that led to raging stagflation back then, except the underlying economy is now weaker than it was in the 1970s and the oil shocks we are likely to get are not political, as when OPEC was formed, but structural.

Oil will exceed $100/barrel some time this winter. The ever-weakening dollar will lead to smaller profit margins and rising retail prices on all imported goods (which means almost everything we buy in the USA). Transport costs will rise with pil prices. Stock prices will erode along with profits. With so many savings tied up in stocks and home equity, consumer spending will be crunched, and personal debt and bancruptcies will rise like a tide. Businesses will retrench and unemployment will rise. No end in sight.

I hope I am wrong.

Aimless, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:07 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Anyone want to join my modern-day James Gang? We shall ride across the lower Midwest, robbing and pillaging.

milo z, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:09 (eleven years ago) Permalink

sounds fun

jhøshea, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:13 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Sorry, I don't want to relocate. But this scheme sounds ripe for franchising.

Aimless, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:14 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Oil will exceed $100/barrel some time this winter. The ever-weakening dollar will lead to smaller profit margins and rising retail prices on all imported goods (which means almost everything we buy in the USA). Transport costs will rise with pil prices. Stock prices will erode along with profits. With so many savings tied up in stocks and home equity, consumer spending will be crunched, and personal debt and bancruptcies will rise like a tide. Businesses will retrench and unemployment will rise. No end in sight.

I hope I am wrong.

-- Aimless, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:07 (14 minutes ago) Link

The coming of $100/barrel oil is not Bush's fault. It's yours and mine and everyone else's for using too damned much energy. I agree Bush could and should have done a lot more with policy to encourage energy efficiency, but there's little he could have done to stop oil's eventual rise to that price level.

Hurting 2, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:26 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Part of the pricing of oil represents the weakness of the dollar. This hurts the USA more than it does other countries. US citizens are paid in dollars and the US government collects revenue in dollars, so they are stuck. EU countries can use euros to buy increasingly cheap dollars, so they don't see the same rise in prices as we do. The weakness of the dollar is mainly Bush's fault.

Aimless, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:31 (eleven years ago) Permalink

The US also uses way more oil than other countries.

Hurting 2, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:33 (eleven years ago) Permalink

he could have done to stop oil's eventual rise to that price level.
Not starting a war in Iraq would definitely have helped here.

stet, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:57 (eleven years ago) Permalink

arrgh, if that won't work then
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html

El Tomboto, Monday, 22 October 2007 17:47 (eleven years ago) Permalink

tombot u r freakin me out

gff, Monday, 22 October 2007 17:50 (eleven years ago) Permalink

i hope my small apartment + modest savings plan + job in "information services" is enough to weather the shitstorm, if it comes. i got myself out of credit card debt a few months ago, at least

gff, Monday, 22 October 2007 17:53 (eleven years ago) Permalink

well if you can hold down a job and don't have to worry about an ARM reset you should be okay, it's the homeowner with kids and a subprime loan and two cars who ought to be shitting themselves

El Tomboto, Monday, 22 October 2007 17:58 (eleven years ago) Permalink

apart from some student loans and binging on credit cards over a few years, i'm kind of debt phobic.

which has actually made me lose out over the past several years, i realize, since i pay for EVERYTHING with a debit/check card... i could have just paid that balance on a credit card with some rewards scheme and has some air miles or something

gff, Monday, 22 October 2007 18:00 (eleven years ago) Permalink

rolling gff personal finances into the shitbin thread, ha

gff, Monday, 22 October 2007 18:01 (eleven years ago) Permalink

This will give you a boner Tombot

http://nymag.com/guides/money/2007/39952/

Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 11:30 (eleven years ago) Permalink

the economy increased by 3.9% this quarter! bull market forever, baby. economy's better than ever. golden age.

yet me and so many people I know are getting laid off next month. granted we're all in the writing/design field, but urhhhhh. gggg.

burt_stanton, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 14:58 (eleven years ago) Permalink

http://nymag.com/guides/money/2007/catastrophist071105_560.jpg
http://nymag.com/guides/money/2007/catastrophist071105_2_560.jpg

^^^ lol

most of that guy's scenario is not really news to regular bigpicture/CR readers I don't think. But #5, the "we don't pay attention" thing, yeah, well, evidently the awareness campaign is underway, but hell if the big players are paying attention.

He also leaves out the approaching demographic catastrophe as millions of inexperienced thirtysomethings and even some late-twenties kids are forced to move into arguably tougher jobs that the boomers have been holding for two decades. Beyond the social security and healthcare costs associated with mass retirement, I don't really know if this generation has the work ethic and definitely not the rolodex to just start filling in and not fuck up royally. too busy updating their linkedin pages.

El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 15:11 (eleven years ago) Permalink

can someone explain what "being upside down on your mortgage" means, in plain English?

Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 16:14 (eleven years ago) Permalink

essentially, owing more than your home is worth.

Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:10 (eleven years ago) Permalink

also Tombot I'm not going to blame this generation as much as I blame their parents.

Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:11 (eleven years ago) Permalink

isn't that the way people buy homes? by paying for the privilege of a loan?

Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:12 (eleven years ago) Permalink

When you enter into a contract with a bank for a mortgage, both you and the bank assume that the property value will not plummet. The bank doesn't want you to default any more than you want to default. But if for whatever reason you need to sell your home, and you can't get what you owe on it, then you will owe the difference to the bank. And the bank knows that when that happens, you probably will not have enough assets to cover the difference.

Predatory-type loans (which seems like a nebulous description to me) typically compound the problem because they have higher transaction rates (points, etc.)

Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:17 (eleven years ago) Permalink

oh certainly! well played baby boom letting healthcare slide for the 20 years you've owned the electorate

El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:18 (eleven years ago) Permalink

yeah Tracer it's also called "negative equity"

El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:19 (eleven years ago) Permalink

the banks get bailed out but it's not like stock traders do

Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Friday, 26 October 2018 19:59 (one month ago) Permalink

and the banks aren't losing money trading stocks, that's not what causes the collapses

Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Friday, 26 October 2018 19:59 (one month ago) Permalink

I’m the last person you should take investment advice from, but beaten-down EM stocks like VNM and ECON and EWY are looking pretty cheap.

― o. nate, Friday, October 26, 2018 2:51 PM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Looking cheap based on what?

Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Friday, 26 October 2018 20:02 (one month ago) Permalink

is the stock market much more than legalized, taxpayer-insured gambling for the rich? honestly

― Nhex, Friday, October 26, 2018 2:42 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

You are actually gambling that the United States dollar will continue to exist as an accpted form of tender until your death

YouTube_-_funy_cats.flv (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 26 October 2018 20:04 (one month ago) Permalink

Based on my utterly unsubstantiated feeling of where they should trade.

o. nate, Friday, 26 October 2018 20:06 (one month ago) Permalink

I mean "price is lower than it was last month" = "cheap" is kind of a classic stock market mistake.

Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Friday, 26 October 2018 20:08 (one month ago) Permalink

also *pushes up pedantry glasses on nose* those are ACTUALLY ETFs and not stocks

Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Friday, 26 October 2018 20:09 (one month ago) Permalink

I assumed they are talking about investment bank bailouts and everyone who caused it or wasn't affected by it, not the average retail investor. Like, all those people who were responsible, they all found other jobs, got their multi-million dollar bonuses. Everyone's private placements weathered it out.

Yerac, Friday, 26 October 2018 20:11 (one month ago) Permalink

I just had to look up what Bob Diamond was doing since he had to resign after the libor scandal. He founded "Atlas Mara Limited, formerly referred to as Atlas Mara Co-Nvest Limited, is a financial services holding company formed to undertake the acquisition of target banks in Africa." cool.

Yerac, Friday, 26 October 2018 20:18 (one month ago) Permalink

Co-N-Vest

YouTube_-_funy_cats.flv (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 26 October 2018 20:19 (one month ago) Permalink

Con-Vest

YouTube_-_funy_cats.flv (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 26 October 2018 20:19 (one month ago) Permalink

Dick Fuld still gets to have his own asset management firm.

Yerac, Friday, 26 October 2018 20:22 (one month ago) Permalink

I assumed they are talking about investment bank bailouts and everyone who caused it or wasn't affected by it, not the average retail investor. Like, all those people who were responsible, they all found other jobs, got their multi-million dollar bonuses. Everyone's private placements weathered it out.

― Yerac, Friday, October 26, 2018 3:11 PM (twenty minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yeah, but the stuff that sunk those investment banks was not mere stock market trading, it was much heavier and more toxic stuff that mere mortals like us don't even have access to.

Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Friday, 26 October 2018 20:33 (one month ago) Permalink

accredited investors/the superrich do have access. but nhex can probably clarify their meaning.

Yerac, Friday, 26 October 2018 20:42 (one month ago) Permalink

oh, i think i get what you are trying to say. Like, when I get mad at people for saying they work on wall street when most of the main buildings are nowhere near there.

Yerac, Friday, 26 October 2018 20:47 (one month ago) Permalink

admittedly i'm definitely too ignorant to mean what Yerac is going for, but sorta that is the direction
like if the stock market has the power to destroy our economy every ten years why are we doing it is my naif question
unless of course... that's the point

Nhex, Friday, 26 October 2018 21:25 (one month ago) Permalink

I mean "price is lower than it was last monthyear" = "cheap" is kind of a classicthis year's stock market mistake.

― Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Friday, October 26, 2018 1:08 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

for i, sock in enumerate (Sufjan Grafton), Friday, 26 October 2018 22:03 (one month ago) Permalink

I swear this market cannot die soon enough.

Yerac, Monday, 29 October 2018 19:34 (one month ago) Permalink

market myers going to bounce back on halloween thanks to candy sector's strength

for i, sock in enumerate (Sufjan Grafton), Monday, 29 October 2018 20:09 (one month ago) Permalink

I have a lot of haribo stocked up.

Yerac, Monday, 29 October 2018 20:16 (one month ago) Permalink

That was just before the dot-com bubble burst, followed by recession, weak recovery/expansion, and the Great Recession. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future results. https://t.co/Bw3EalVbDH

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) October 30, 2018

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 31 October 2018 17:54 (one month ago) Permalink

this thing's gonna pop in 2019 and we're gonna elect booker/harris who're gonna muddle us through another market emergency at the expense of regular people and man i hope they get credit for the dead cat bounce that results so we at least have a two terms where we pretend like we're not managing decline

BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 20:10 (one month ago) Permalink

djia down 600 points today, but the market is still ahead of where it closed 2017. tax cuts!

reggie (qualmsley), Monday, 12 November 2018 22:27 (one month ago) Permalink

seems like we might oscillate, move a bit lower, and then start another climb to a new ATH in February. or maybe spx will rapidly drop below 2000 tomorrow.

for i, sock in enumerate (Sufjan Grafton), Friday, 16 November 2018 00:13 (one month ago) Permalink

the job creators (peace be unto them) are punishing the US for electing the democRAT party to take over the house

reggie (qualmsley), Tuesday, 20 November 2018 17:31 (three weeks ago) Permalink

every time an “objective” news source calls the american economy strong i laugh mirthlessly

maura, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 22:28 (three weeks ago) Permalink

this is all a normal correction and we will see s&p 500 all-time highs before the end of the year.

Mr. Snrub, Wednesday, 21 November 2018 15:14 (three weeks ago) Permalink

To the extent that the strength of the economy rests on a shaky scaffolding of collective conviction/delusion in that strength, I geddit. But yeah.

'Rock Me (I'm a Dais)' (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 21 November 2018 15:23 (three weeks ago) Permalink

https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2018/11/20/millennials-homeownership-affordability-000792

Sara and Dan are, by most standards, wealthy. Their starter home came with a $755,000 price tag, which they could afford because their household income is more than twice the Arlington median of $104,000 and their student loans are paid off. And Sara’s dad—who until recently led the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington—pitched in with more than half the down payment.

j., Sunday, 25 November 2018 18:18 (three weeks ago) Permalink

"Just a typical American tale of home ownership here"

Groove(box) Denied (Raymond Cummings), Sunday, 25 November 2018 19:20 (three weeks ago) Permalink

755k ‘starter home’ u say

sign up for my waterless urinals webinar (bizarro gazzara), Sunday, 25 November 2018 19:32 (three weeks ago) Permalink

They plan to move into something larger and nicer as they get more established.

A is for (Aimless), Sunday, 25 November 2018 19:34 (three weeks ago) Permalink

Also the wife's father worked for Obama and then became a home mortgaging lobbyist and paid over half the down payment
I'm a little perplexed what this story is supposed to be telling me. Only rich people can afford to buy houses? No shit

Nhex, Sunday, 25 November 2018 19:37 (three weeks ago) Permalink

It's so privileged and lesser privileged white people can commiserate.

Yerac, Sunday, 25 November 2018 20:06 (three weeks ago) Permalink

market in freefall lmao

frogbs, Tuesday, 4 December 2018 18:18 (one week ago) Permalink

G20 reaction.

A is for (Aimless), Tuesday, 4 December 2018 18:45 (one week ago) Permalink

need your 20Gs for G20

Sufjan Grafton, Tuesday, 4 December 2018 19:02 (one week ago) Permalink

video explaining the market moves today

https://youtu.be/uI4fVgVVpiw

officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 4 December 2018 20:00 (one week ago) Permalink

why dont you embed you son of a bitch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI4fVgVVpiw&feature=youtu.be

officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 4 December 2018 20:00 (one week ago) Permalink

=(

officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 4 December 2018 20:00 (one week ago) Permalink

because you have https in there. change it to http and you should be fine

Mr. Snrub, Tuesday, 4 December 2018 21:00 (one week ago) Permalink

revive for tomorrow morning

here we fucken go

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-futures-plunge-leaving-001751344.html

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, 6 December 2018 04:46 (one week ago) Permalink

today's strong rally off lows is a bit relieving. scary coupla days.

rip van wanko, Thursday, 6 December 2018 20:54 (one week ago) Permalink

our algorithmic trading overlords will not be cowed into submission

officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 6 December 2018 21:05 (one week ago) Permalink

feel like the official term for days like this should be "puke n' rally"

frogbs, Thursday, 6 December 2018 21:10 (one week ago) Permalink

blech taking a doing

single bed mentality (||||||||), Thursday, 6 December 2018 21:43 (one week ago) Permalink


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