here we go guys
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 18 October 2007 23:44 (fourteen years ago) link
personally I'm applying for a civil servant position ASAP
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 18 October 2007 23:45 (fourteen years ago) link
Just FYI, during the 1930s depression, many civil servants were paid with vouchers rather than cash, because local governments were unable to collect property taxes and their receipts fell into the shitbin.
― Aimless, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:12 (fourteen years ago) link
Economy's doing poorly enough as it stands, why do we deliberately want to roll it into the shitbin?
― Abbott, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:14 (fourteen years ago) link
Because that way Hillary can rescue us all.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:17 (fourteen years ago) link
lol property taxes
― El Tomboto, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:18 (fourteen years ago) link
shitbin's a great word, BTW.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:20 (fourteen years ago) link
you been loving my thread titles lately
― El Tomboto, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:26 (fourteen years ago) link
i came to this country some time ago with little more than a crippling debt burden in GB Pounds and the shirt on my back. i used to have to send back $1,200 each month to pay off my UK debt, and now I'm sending back over $1,400 to cover the same amount of debt repayment. that's two and a half thousand dollars disappearing from my tiny disposable income every year, for no explicable reason. i *heart* the decline of the US economy.
― Roberto Spiralli, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:27 (fourteen years ago) link
anyway why start this thread now because the bit where ritholtz points out that domino's pizza can't print new menus fast enough to keep up with inflation was pretty fucking amazing
I wish rasheed wallace was still around to show us the latest and greatest exploding bubble blogs
― El Tomboto, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:28 (fourteen years ago) link
wow Roberto that was some shitty timing, that sucks
― El Tomboto, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:29 (fourteen years ago) link
This was in the paper today:
Hit an annual rate of 1.5 million in September. That compares with 900,000 last year from fewer than 800,000 in 2005. At the current rate, more than one million Americans will lose their homes to foreclosure, making this the worst housing recession since the Second World War.
Sank to a 14-year low of 1.19 million in September. Starts are a vital economic engine, creating jobs and growth as people stuff their homes with sofas and TVs. Starts peaked at 2.3 million in early 2006, and the decline will be a drag on the rest of the economy until the slide stops.
A quarter of the roughly 50 million U.S. home mortgages are subprime. That's seven times the number of high-risk mortgages there were in 2001. That means that many more marginal homeowners have mortgages, making it far more likely they'll wind up in default.
Fell 3.2 per cent in the second quarter. Prices are falling faster and more broadly than they have in decades, according to the closely watched Case-Shiller index.
― everything, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:29 (fourteen years ago) link
where the hell is rasheed anyway?
economic blogs I read (they're all fairly liberal):
― Dandy Don Weiner, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:37 (fourteen years ago) link
In regard to inflation, in the USA during the past three years inflation has been soaring - but almost entirely in the housing sector. The fact that people are encouraged to see their houses as investments rather than as expenses doesn't mean that skyrocketing housing costs weren't inflationary. They were.
As the bubble market bursts, I predict a recession with an extra added bonus of inflation running close to 10% - before the end of 2008. As it has for the past 30 years, the official CPI will understate the real inflation rate. It was rigged under Reagan so that government entitlement programs indexed to the CPI would not increase at the true pace of inflation.
If Bush continues to shovel shit on the dollar right up to the end of his term in January 2009, the inflation rate could hit 15%-20% by 2010.
― Aimless, Friday, 19 October 2007 00:55 (fourteen years ago) link
There are some good economics articles put up here as well:
― stet, Friday, 19 October 2007 01:02 (fourteen years ago) link
Which shit on the dollar are you referring to?
― Dandy Don Weiner, Friday, 19 October 2007 01:02 (fourteen years ago) link
As the bubble market bursts, I predict a recession with an extra added bonus of inflation running close to 10% - before the end of 2008.
― aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, Friday, 19 October 2007 06:11 (fourteen years ago) link
this is why i live in canada!
― J0rdan S., Friday, 19 October 2007 06:13 (fourteen years ago) link
Guys, this is a good time stay in academia right?
― Catsupppppppppppppp dude 茄蕃, Friday, 19 October 2007 11:51 (fourteen years ago) link
It's a good time to learn a European language.
― Nubbelverbrennung, Friday, 19 October 2007 13:33 (fourteen years ago) link
Prime shit examples:
When Bush was elected in 2000, the federal budget was in surplus and the national debt was being paid down. Had this state of affairs continued, as projected, it would have led both to lower interest rates and a strong dollar, together. Instead, Bush submitted a series of enormous tax cuts to the Republican-controlled Congress and lobbied them through. Immediately, the CBO's projected budget surpluses turned to projected deficits for the next decade.
Bush also initiated a war of choice, not necessity, in Iraq. This war has already cost well over $700 billion. Yet, Bush insisted on making his tax cuts permanent. Overall, the national debt has increased under Bush by about $2 trillion in seven years. This represents a difference of about $3 trillion of debt from what was projected at the start of his first term.
Because, due to Bush's tax cuts and other policies, the Federal government was in a far weaker position to stimulate the economy when the recession started after 9/11, almost the entire stimulus was delivered via lower interest rates. Because these rate cuts were artificial, and not based on a stronger dollar, this stimulus not only inflated the current housing bubble, but it also undercut the dollar even more than the ballooning national debt did.
Now the dollar is at an all-time low against the euro and the canadian dollar. However, the incomes of the top 10% of American households have increased at a good clip, while the lower 50% of households have seen a decrease in income after inflation. This is largely thanks to Bush's shitty policies. I expect more of the same mismanagement until he is gone.
― Aimless, Saturday, 20 October 2007 18:36 (fourteen years ago) link
I agree with everything you've just said. You're predictions still seem a tad extreme on the downside though, if I may so.
― aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, Saturday, 20 October 2007 18:50 (fourteen years ago) link
i wonder if income inequality will ever arrive as a political issue in this country. americans tend to not begrudge the rich - so it'll have to be more of a "for everyone's good" type of angle. no?
― jhøshea, Saturday, 20 October 2007 18:54 (fourteen years ago) link
I remember the 1970s and early 80s quite well. Back then people couldn't belileve it, either. Bush has done a bangup job of recreating many of the same policy errors under Johnson and Nixon that led to raging stagflation back then, except the underlying economy is now weaker than it was in the 1970s and the oil shocks we are likely to get are not political, as when OPEC was formed, but structural.
Oil will exceed $100/barrel some time this winter. The ever-weakening dollar will lead to smaller profit margins and rising retail prices on all imported goods (which means almost everything we buy in the USA). Transport costs will rise with pil prices. Stock prices will erode along with profits. With so many savings tied up in stocks and home equity, consumer spending will be crunched, and personal debt and bancruptcies will rise like a tide. Businesses will retrench and unemployment will rise. No end in sight.
I hope I am wrong.
― Aimless, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:07 (fourteen years ago) link
Anyone want to join my modern-day James Gang? We shall ride across the lower Midwest, robbing and pillaging.
― milo z, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:09 (fourteen years ago) link
― jhøshea, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:13 (fourteen years ago) link
Sorry, I don't want to relocate. But this scheme sounds ripe for franchising.
― Aimless, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:14 (fourteen years ago) link
-- Aimless, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:07 (14 minutes ago) Link
The coming of $100/barrel oil is not Bush's fault. It's yours and mine and everyone else's for using too damned much energy. I agree Bush could and should have done a lot more with policy to encourage energy efficiency, but there's little he could have done to stop oil's eventual rise to that price level.
― Hurting 2, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:26 (fourteen years ago) link
Part of the pricing of oil represents the weakness of the dollar. This hurts the USA more than it does other countries. US citizens are paid in dollars and the US government collects revenue in dollars, so they are stuck. EU countries can use euros to buy increasingly cheap dollars, so they don't see the same rise in prices as we do. The weakness of the dollar is mainly Bush's fault.
― Aimless, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:31 (fourteen years ago) link
The US also uses way more oil than other countries.
― Hurting 2, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:33 (fourteen years ago) link
he could have done to stop oil's eventual rise to that price level.
Not starting a war in Iraq would definitely have helped here.
― stet, Saturday, 20 October 2007 19:57 (fourteen years ago) link
― El Tomboto, Monday, 22 October 2007 17:47 (fourteen years ago) link
arrgh, if that won't work then
tombot u r freakin me out
― gff, Monday, 22 October 2007 17:50 (fourteen years ago) link
i hope my small apartment + modest savings plan + job in "information services" is enough to weather the shitstorm, if it comes. i got myself out of credit card debt a few months ago, at least
― gff, Monday, 22 October 2007 17:53 (fourteen years ago) link
well if you can hold down a job and don't have to worry about an ARM reset you should be okay, it's the homeowner with kids and a subprime loan and two cars who ought to be shitting themselves
― El Tomboto, Monday, 22 October 2007 17:58 (fourteen years ago) link
apart from some student loans and binging on credit cards over a few years, i'm kind of debt phobic.
which has actually made me lose out over the past several years, i realize, since i pay for EVERYTHING with a debit/check card... i could have just paid that balance on a credit card with some rewards scheme and has some air miles or something
― gff, Monday, 22 October 2007 18:00 (fourteen years ago) link
rolling gff personal finances into the shitbin thread, ha
― gff, Monday, 22 October 2007 18:01 (fourteen years ago) link
This will give you a boner Tombot
― Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 11:30 (fourteen years ago) link
the economy increased by 3.9% this quarter! bull market forever, baby. economy's better than ever. golden age.
yet me and so many people I know are getting laid off next month. granted we're all in the writing/design field, but urhhhhh. gggg.
― burt_stanton, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 14:58 (fourteen years ago) link
most of that guy's scenario is not really news to regular bigpicture/CR readers I don't think. But #5, the "we don't pay attention" thing, yeah, well, evidently the awareness campaign is underway, but hell if the big players are paying attention.
He also leaves out the approaching demographic catastrophe as millions of inexperienced thirtysomethings and even some late-twenties kids are forced to move into arguably tougher jobs that the boomers have been holding for two decades. Beyond the social security and healthcare costs associated with mass retirement, I don't really know if this generation has the work ethic and definitely not the rolodex to just start filling in and not fuck up royally. too busy updating their linkedin pages.
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 15:11 (fourteen years ago) link
can someone explain what "being upside down on your mortgage" means, in plain English?
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 16:14 (fourteen years ago) link
essentially, owing more than your home is worth.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:10 (fourteen years ago) link
also Tombot I'm not going to blame this generation as much as I blame their parents.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:11 (fourteen years ago) link
isn't that the way people buy homes? by paying for the privilege of a loan?
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:12 (fourteen years ago) link
When you enter into a contract with a bank for a mortgage, both you and the bank assume that the property value will not plummet. The bank doesn't want you to default any more than you want to default. But if for whatever reason you need to sell your home, and you can't get what you owe on it, then you will owe the difference to the bank. And the bank knows that when that happens, you probably will not have enough assets to cover the difference.
Predatory-type loans (which seems like a nebulous description to me) typically compound the problem because they have higher transaction rates (points, etc.)
― Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:17 (fourteen years ago) link
oh certainly! well played baby boom letting healthcare slide for the 20 years you've owned the electorate
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:18 (fourteen years ago) link
yeah Tracer it's also called "negative equity"
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:19 (fourteen years ago) link
Antiperspirant changed my life.
― Porking level G4 (Boring, Maryland), Thursday, 16 September 2021 19:13 (four months ago) link
I will not use the stuff, way too many weird chemicals that make me feel squeamish. I'm not an unhairy guy, but the deodorant i've been using really works for me.
― I'm a sovereign jazz citizen (the table is the table), Thursday, 16 September 2021 19:29 (four months ago) link
would you say it hirsutes you
― Tracer Hand, Thursday, 16 September 2021 19:48 (four months ago) link
― Marty J. Bilge (Old Lunch), Thursday, 16 September 2021 20:02 (four months ago) link
Ban the stuff
― Andy the Grasshopper, Thursday, 16 September 2021 20:07 (four months ago) link
the 35th Director of the United States Mint loves coins!
Got a very nice email and follow-up from former Mint Director @PhilipNDiehl, which I reproduce here with his permission, that provides useful context on the underlying legislative intent behind 31 USC 5112(k) and reinforces the case for #MintTheCoin. pic.twitter.com/FGIhSgtaoQ— Rohan Grey (@rohangrey) October 6, 2021
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, 7 October 2021 04:27 (three months ago) link
ha i don't really understand all the context of this but it is super refreshing and pleasing to see a bureaucrat with a passion for their particular thing! have to assume this guy was a major numismatist (i admit i looked it up) before getting into it as a career
― Lavator Shemmelpennick, Friday, 8 October 2021 15:42 (three months ago) link
Private quits rate 🚀 pic.twitter.com/sJb2ZrvAX9— Conor Sen (@conorsen) October 12, 2021
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 14:48 (three months ago) link
pardon the dumb Q but what are "quits"?
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 18:58 (three months ago) link
people quitting their job
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 18:59 (three months ago) link
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 19:00 (three months ago) link
Jennifer Booth quit her information technology job at a national retailer in August, after months of working as many as 90 hours a week during the pandemic to help the company revamp its e-commerce system.i mean 90 hrs a week is insane and borderline illegal in a lot of countries so it’s “good” that people are fed up but i’m not sure this is a story about progress
― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 12 October 2021 19:31 (three months ago) link
2 of my friends in low-level positions put their two weeks notice in on friday so SSS but yeah quit them jobs bros!
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 19:55 (three months ago) link
I quit a couple months ago myself. BS got made a supervisor over 5 people with 3 open positions in other states with no title and no raise - still having to do all had in my regular job. IT staff was down to 21 from 34 and ticket count went from like maybe a total for everyone of maybe 100 or so a day to pretty much hundreds open at all times. Literally some days I was having to update 100+ tickets in a day as there was so many device return tasks from the constant churn of people entering and exiting posts.
Had many days I would get up at 5am to get to work at 7am work 9-10 hours then have to go home and do BS billing work until like 11pm or midnight then wake up and do it again. Coup de grace was stupid offshore SCCM team had not tested shit for over a year and broke literally over 100+ devices that had never gotten updated to w10 on top of the mess. I thought I was going to have a breakdown by the end. Going through that last year at work pretty much had me wishing the f'ing sun would go supernova and wipe this grease stain of a planet out of the heavens. I'm a bit better now but have been busy as heck at home doing all the crap I never had time to do for the past year.
― earlnash, Tuesday, 12 October 2021 20:44 (three months ago) link
holy shit, i feel like absolute dogshit when i work more than 6 hours a day lol
― I'm a sovereign jazz citizen (the table is the table), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 21:07 (three months ago) link
unless i'm doing outdoor work, then i have no problem going for longer, because there's always some time to "rest" and take a nice long toke
but office jobs? fuck, i think the longest i ever worked at an office-type job was the week i pulled 37 hours, and that was because my manager had the flu. most weeks in my life i've managed to do about 32 or so. any more is absolute bullshit afaic, a job can go fuck itself.
― I'm a sovereign jazz citizen (the table is the table), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 21:09 (three months ago) link
yeah i have no idea how people do more than 40 hours in an office job, i would just completely fall apart
― Linda and Jodie Rocco (map), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 21:12 (three months ago) link
are people in low-level jobs able to quit because of pandemic money?
― Linda and Jodie Rocco (map), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 21:13 (three months ago) link
No just stopped buying lattes
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 21:40 (three months ago) link
i honestly don't know, sorry i don't pay much attention to this stuff.
― Linda and Jodie Rocco (map), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 21:55 (three months ago) link
i think it's great if workers have leverage but .... it kinda seems like workers don't really have leverage you know?
― Linda and Jodie Rocco (map), Tuesday, 12 October 2021 21:56 (three months ago) link
The only workers I know with appreciable leverage are those with highly specialized technical skills/knowledge in a rapidly expanding job category. Much rarer is the worker with skills/knowledge that is exclusive to their current position in a company, making them effectively irreplaceable without their consenting to train their replacement.
― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Wednesday, 13 October 2021 03:44 (three months ago) link
when i had an office job i was in the office 40 hours a week but only really working for 20-30 tops
― flopson, Wednesday, 13 October 2021 05:03 (three months ago) link
I can’t speak to most industries but it’s really hard to find a paralegal right now and the ones that interview certainly seem to believe they have leverage and options.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 13 October 2021 12:05 (three months ago) link
Doing tax prep, I see what my clients made last year on Unemployment, and I was a bit envious tbh
― sarahell, Wednesday, 13 October 2021 13:48 (three months ago) link
I have to assume the paralegal thing is partly women with kids dropping out of the workforce due to childcare impossibilities (also couldn't find an after school babysitter btw, even offering what everyone told us was "above market"). In past interview cycles, 80-90% of our candidates have been women who either outright mentioned kids or were in the age range of someone who might have kids.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 13 October 2021 14:25 (three months ago) link
god is dead pic.twitter.com/JuBFlGk9Iz— 𝒥𝑜𝑒𝓁, 𝒶 𝒻𝓇𝒾𝑒𝓃𝒹 (@joeljohnson) October 24, 2021
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 24 October 2021 21:33 (two months ago) link
wow. and i thought it was bad when the chicken fingers shortage happened!
― Nhex, Sunday, 24 October 2021 22:23 (two months ago) link
At a casino buffet that could lead to riots.
― papal hotwife (milo z), Sunday, 24 October 2021 23:43 (two months ago) link
Monthly job growth has averaged 561,000 jobs a month in 2021. It's 612,000 a month since March. The average for June-July was 1.026 million jobs a month.Big upside revisions, never really covered, are part of why you aren't aware of this, but also because it's off narrative. https://t.co/4xjUZGVW8w— Mike Konczal (@rortybomb) October 26, 2021
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 26 October 2021 14:40 (two months ago) link
Interesting. I probably understand less about economics than I do about epidemiology, but it does seem like the economy doing relatively well, or at least recovering pretty quickly, is what's causing at least as much of the bad stuff as good. The Great Resignation is real, but some people are taking advantage of it to get better or better paying jobs, and bigger paychecks leads to inflation. At the same time, people are spending more, too, which post ("post") pandemic is putting strains on supply and production, which is also causing prices to go up.
I find the elusive PS5 a pretty fascinating example. We get a next generation video game console launched in the middle of a pandemic, at a time of historic instability, at a pretty high price point, in the midst of a chip shortage, etc.. And yet, it continues to sell and sell out, and in fact is selling more than other consoles, iirc. So it's an illustrative conflation of lots of different economic concerns, supply and demand, discretionary spending, consumerism, supply chain issues, and all sorts of stuff that emphasizes the complexity of a global market that might be doing better than it seems.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 26 October 2021 15:23 (two months ago) link
I’m a paralegal. If you’re hiring in the LA area I will gladly accept a mountain of money in exchange for my labor.
Legal market been white hot recently. If I don’t get a bonus or a raise this new year I’m going to be looking around. Mostly because I had to buy a new car recently and I could use the money. =|
― officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 26 October 2021 18:45 (two months ago) link
My heart weeps for the hiring managers being ghosted left and right by prospective employees. It's all veryhttps://i.imgur.com/Rpq3yhp.jpeg
― (a picture of a defecating pig) (Old Lunch), Thursday, 28 October 2021 16:45 (two months ago) link
I’ve watched this 10 times and it somehow gets better each time. #fintok #stocktok pic.twitter.com/yQ0Ps0ujzF— TikTok Investors (@TikTokInvestors) August 31, 2020
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 29 November 2021 22:17 (one month ago) link
Those dudes are the best, I forgot all about their bits.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 29 November 2021 23:05 (one month ago) link
We took a look at the most recent earnings statements and earnings calls of the big meat processing companies, and here's what we found: they are raising prices far more than any cost increases they're facing, resulting in skyrocketing profit margins.https://t.co/NVboVeAvWT— Bharat Ramamurti (@BharatRamamurti) December 10, 2021
― Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 11 December 2021 23:41 (one month ago) link
The media's panic stories about inflation have given every corporation a green light to raise prices as fast as possible.
― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Saturday, 11 December 2021 23:43 (one month ago) link
tin foil hat time but I feel like there’s probably a riff on a capital strike afoot. I got this sense when Obama was elected and Wall Street ghouls would parade through cable news whining about “uncertainty” well after their balls had been powdered by public funds and constant reassurance (rhetorically and policy-wise) from the admin
― caddy lac brougham? (will), Saturday, 11 December 2021 23:51 (one month ago) link
iirc this spiel went on for years after the crash where they were made beyond Whole
― caddy lac brougham? (will), Saturday, 11 December 2021 23:54 (one month ago) link
“Fascism should rightly be called corporatism, as it is the merger of corporate and government power.”
― earlnash, Sunday, 12 December 2021 02:13 (one month ago) link
this guy has the right idea on inflation imo
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 7 January 2022 23:24 (two weeks ago) link
that guy otmfm
― Nedlene Grendel as Basenji Holmo (map), Saturday, 8 January 2022 00:10 (one week ago) link
cug is a lot of fun
― i cannot help if you made yourself not funny (forksclovetofu), Saturday, 8 January 2022 06:32 (one week ago) link
🧐 pic.twitter.com/XcZsNkiZxP— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) January 7, 2022
― rob, Saturday, 8 January 2022 15:20 (one week ago) link
Maybe not the right thread for that really. Do we have a thread about the ontology of "the economy"?
― rob, Saturday, 8 January 2022 15:22 (one week ago) link
"rolling us economy is a shitbin thread"
― class project pat (m bison), Saturday, 8 January 2022 16:09 (one week ago) link
i've been reading Kate Soper's "Post Growth Living" and have been thinking about this kind of thing a lot.
― we need outrage! we need dicks!! (the table is the table), Saturday, 8 January 2022 20:58 (one week ago) link
Feels like we’re rolling into the shitbin again!
― deep luminous trombone (Eazy), Friday, 14 January 2022 14:21 (one week ago) link
that's just the way it ishttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
― i cannot help if you made yourself not funny (forksclovetofu), Saturday, 15 January 2022 07:02 (six days ago) link