Irish politics discussion thread

So Sinn Fein is now the largest party in Ireland, while Unionist parties are in the minority in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Get it up ye, Boris.

that covers the essentials def, while certainly covering the personal angle also, irlxpol welcomes gonzo journalism imo

i break from the discussion to report that SF transfers, which are enormous in places, have been lifting pbp et al up into contention

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQXjh-rU4AAOWzC?format=jpg&name=large

SF overperformed, FG underperformed the exit poll, FF pretty bang on?!

aps never apologise, i was clarifyin merely because it occurred to me i hadnt really noted (and may not) my full personal reaction itt to events

also as always, and i wont stop saying it, an aps post will be viewed as it ought, in the most positive possible light so please stay stuck in here

fuck theres michael mcgrath in, the first ffer to show signs of pugnacity after the crash, hate him

Yeah I saw a transfer left guide doing the rounds
― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 23:07 (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

saw some controversial fb posts where some sf personalities were seen telling ppl to "vote sf then leave empty" but idk if that was true, or tampered- official message was vote left alright

very useful figure: accumulated transfers from sf

Text version of the latest #surpluswatch - after 13 constituencies, here's where the SF surplus went. #ge2020
PBP - 21700
IND - 9365
SD - 5330
GP - 5286
FF - 5122
I4C - 3646
Lab - 3143
SF - 2187
Aontu - 1900
FG - 1887
NP - 552
RN - 352
IFP - 340
WP - 299
UP - 97
NON TRANSFER - 28

— Sarah isn't here to debate you. (@froodie) February 9, 2020

quick approx count is 60k total if you want to do % analysis

aps never apologise, i was clarifyin merely because it occurred to me i hadnt really noted (and may not) my full personal reaction itt to events

also as always, and i wont stop saying it, an aps post will be viewed as it ought, in the most positive possible light so please stay stuck in here

fuck theres michael mcgrath in, the first ffer to show signs of pugnacity after the crash, hate him

wait did i

shurely not as strongly as ya did yerself anyways wha

frankly

that more ppl arent in here in fuckin AWE at the fuckin CRAIC that the count is is a crying shame

do we need to publicise more, or do they maybe not get it yet

i think silby shows promise, have you one you're sponsoring

29 sf
10 fg
10 ff
5 ind
4 gp
2 pbp
1 aon
1 sd

no labour seat yet

change in 2016 1st pref % for sf is +10.7

change including aontu would be well over 12%

frankly

that more ppl arent in here in fuckin AWE at the fuckin CRAIC that the count is is a crying shame

do we need to publicise more, or do they maybe not get it yet

i think silby shows promise, have you one you're sponsoring

greens in line to get ten to twelve

soc dems did well ito first pref but will transfer better than that again

but along with labour, the sheer strangeness of sf eating it up is going to mean that transfers will go to fg/ff in the first instance and trickle down from there, so having selected the right constituencies is going to be maybe even more critical than usual

xp excellent, excellent

Can’t believe I have to say I’m not a provo, what a world. Esp being from a classic FF family as I am & all.

I read Anna Burns’ Man Booker winner Milkman last year which painted a moving and fascinating picture of life during the troubles which as a world-historical event I was too young to be informed of contemporaneously and too recent/off-topic from the high school curriculum for me to have learned about and so between that and Brexit-adjacent sentiments of Scottish antiunionists I took a new interest in the complicated sovereign and colonial history of yon isles which has some parallel resonance to me as a diasporic Jew disinherited from a string of homelands and so the import of the sudden possible accession to government in Ireland of the folks who at least allegedly were latterly keeping a hand in the maintenance of the stockpiles and the safehouses is of no little interest

Fucking delighted for the greens btw, what seats?

no idea, this is faster than ryder cup matchplay

now fg 12
ff 11

Can’t believe I have to say I’m not a provo, what a world. Esp being from a classic FF family as I am & all.

― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 23:48 (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

look, a bit of advice

ill get the mods to delete that, and we'll just tell everyone youre a provo maybe?

lol as previously established I am neither side of my family’s politics! And I am no’ a grass provo

Greens will surely get in to Fingal on transfers?

See a certain loon struggling to poll there, you love to see it.

hi silby

its probably not the day to understate the troubles as a factor in day to day politics in the republic, but other than it being something that yeah impacts the way many did consider sf as to their legitimacy as a purely political party and yeah brexit raising some bubbles that all involved would rather stayed submerged, i myself would call it a separate issue

but as it happens, today has been transformational, the entire issue is now open in a probably healthy way, the manner in which it must now be addressed by the other parties will have to consign the snide "whiff of cordite" type first resort comeback to history

and sf for its part may have to take (another- credit ofc for their many steps to this point) step towards the full legitimacy they will have to submit to as a party of govt and very certainly part of the establishment. the cracks about cordite have not always imo been without substance neither.

good news, they only have to be no less legitimate than the parties who've been responsible for irish banks and irish cops and who've covered for the irish church, so the standard aint perfection

xp not even the initials, not even thinking them, ive to bless meself now just in case

my god but pat the cope looks powerful good lads, that man built killybegs pier be hand did ye know that

one aspect of my itinerant childhood is that im intimate and interested in a fair few constituencies

i know of thomas pringle and you're as well to elect joe duffy to a seat, hes sliding up and down there after stressing to everyone south of bruckless that the bluestacks to bundoran need a strong independent voice like his

in mayo, north towards ballina mulhern has had an idiosyncratic few years shall we say, hupped into the seanad to keep her current but not frontline after not making it last time, looked frankly dazed beside chambers (more of anon) and saoirse (who was not more coherent than dazed, but as always more engaging) when that trio were showcased on rte live last week

chambers is lagging after fg threw dillon in to make up for an enda-shaped football man gap around ballintubber, chambers herself is a ballyheane woman and both parishes drink in the punch bowl ffs so that was a funny call, she had been heavily involved on brexit and performed credibly, but was up to her neck in the attendance hiccup recently. those two are going to directly battle for the same trough of transfers, and ring was obviously never troubled although for conway walsh to get in on first count was very unexpected- she was a "might get in" and was in fact held to possibly profit from the above fg throatslitting

elsewhere, calleary is likely to get in, and m@nning tallied 67 first preference i think, and none from the island itself

back to you in the studio, claire

dev og might be a decent man about the parish, im sure he is, but hes retrograde ff isnt he, and the dynasty is toxic afaic

count 7 in galway, and dev og short by 44 votes to be first elected yet

first actual serious considered call for a 3 party, 1 year brexit and housing national govt

That’s an obvious ploy to blunt SF’s moment, not a chance

I have been demonstrating (with the help of the RTE site) this to Jen, who's from Scotland, so it's similar but different.

She is impressed, but asked one question that I wasn't sure on - why don't they reduce the quota by the (the right fraction of) the now-unusable votes after each transfer?

I am fairly sure that it makes no difference at all, mind (because if it doesn't get up to the quota then it eventually gets down to the right number of seats).

SF have only two TDs who had to wait for the second count - and one of them was in Dublin Mid West, where the gent in question was waiting on transfers from the SF TD that came in on the first count.

i am utterly enthralled by this professor emeritus talking us through the stats

like a quiet brian cox character turn

finished with wonderful pathos

"older people dont vote, well"

pause

face glum

look down

sotto voce

"older than me anyway. its hard to get out"

That’s an obvious ploy to blunt SF’s moment, not a chance

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:36 (forty-one seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

SFs greatest threat is as opposition against a combined FF/FG again, right now FG are looking at FF and as much as eyeing them towards their mate SF, mouthing "your turn this time"

FG have stayed firm all day on not going in with SF

FF stayed firm until yesterday 10:01pm that they werent going in with anyone, today theyve been shouting into letterboxes looking for a dance

they went back to professor he pointed out how stupid it was to ask academics anything, they dont talk to anyone they dont go out and they barely get it right with hindsight, he practically finished by peering out from under his eyebrows and sayin i was told there would be cake

ive no idea AF, re quota

You've to pick a number, as well to stick to it at that stage i guess

carlow looking good for ff for maybe three seats, fg for maybe two, four available

pat spillane, under the stage name of michael o regan, throwing out all manner of his usual windup theories

29 sf
12 each the lads

another independent in in limerick county

ahead of an sf, who is excluded

jaysus the streaks fucked

Three available now in Carlow, very hard to see how FG would get two in unless there's a hidden wellspring of personal respect from PBP voters for the position of Deputy Chair of the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party.

high profile green saoirse mac of achill island excluded and her votes will essentially decide to a large degree who of mulhern, chambers and dillon get in

calleary looks safe.

apart, ironically, from the third cousin, ive dealt with them all to some degree or another and ring safely in and calleary looking safely in are the worst, mulhern went loopy but was a good councillor once upon a time

bad result for the quality of rep in the county imo

back to ye in the studio brian

heres mayo

xp to myself: Implicit in this is that it's the third FG who put the first FF over with 10% of the transfers.

saoirse's vote distribution v interesting- green party but v independently so, fairly described as more sf leaning there on rte.

mulhern gone

her fg transfers of 7k would do very well to bring dillon up to quota but he'll pass chambers, and the ballina transfers will help calleary but prob not to quota (not that it matters)

xp The transfers there went all over the shop, Brian - Mulherin next for the jump then presumably Chambers?

idk about carlow, its a bit of a wild one, even under the parties theres a few rebels

idk if transfers follow as expected, theyre all rich farmers sher they all walk the same roads

mulherin is gone, theyll be distributing her votes and there will be nothing for chambers so it would be almost impossible to see her stay, rte essentially just dealt with her as gone

tv coverage finito, switching to online coverage

reminder- take two days off after election ffs

It's a sign of our vital electoral gut fauna that Renua haven't been the first eliminated in every constituency, but God they put their best effort in.