xp again!
really need to see how transfers turn into seats, its quite possible that ff/fg return in on or another setup and could be quite stable...
in that instance, and seeing as those first pref results arent actually as bad as polling, leo would maybe try to brave it out for a while
noonan has already shot across his bows mind
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 22:08 (four years ago) link
https://i.postimg.cc/xThRtGFN/C0-EF66-E8-33-B7-4678-998-B-A379-C434-C61-F.jpg
― hyds (gyac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 22:09 (four years ago) link
its v much a continuation of ff/fg scrambling to hold against an ongoing major change in voting habits, a healthy thing.
xp otm
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 22:10 (four years ago) link
labour, green, sd will be transfer friendly, out of the big three youd have to think ff most transfer friendly
god its so much better than other systems this, the craic will be fuckin ninety for the week after this
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 22:13 (four years ago) link
Can’t wait for my constituency to finish counting last as per fucking usual
― hyds (gyac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 22:16 (four years ago) link
Surely any government formed isn’t going to be stable?
SF must be kicking themselves they didn’t run more candidates.
― hyds (gyac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 22:06 (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
two notes as first reaction from rte/david himself
i. keep them posters up folks, we'll be back soon
ii. yes, but ff/fg ran too many. theyll be ating each other out there within the parties.
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 22:18 (four years ago) link
dying at this, country vmic
LOL. RTÉ news just said smallest voter turnout in the country so far is Malin Head. Locals said they’d get to it later as there was a big dinner dance last night and the whole place is bollixed today. Never change Dún na nGall 🤣🤣🤣 #Togh2020— MCDAID (@MCDAID) February 8, 2020
― hyds (gyac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 23:01 (four years ago) link
mad hoors hi
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 23:06 (four years ago) link
Big dinner dance in fairness tho
― Saxophone Of Futility (Michael B), Saturday, 8 February 2020 23:09 (four years ago) link
Would love to see them lose badly
FG's @martinheydonfg: “According to this poll, we are the biggest party going into count day. We started it according to one poll 12 points behind Fianna Fáil. We are in the hunt in every constituency for seats and are determined to come out of this election as largest party.— Richard Chambers (@newschambers) February 8, 2020
― hyds (gyac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 23:36 (four years ago) link
pic.twitter.com/usCRA9aMDm— No Context Eamon Dunphy (@NoContextDunphy) February 8, 2020
― hyds (gyac), Saturday, 8 February 2020 23:39 (four years ago) link
Shane Ross out on his ear is it? FG not doing well in the west? You love to see it.
― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 11:05 (four years ago) link
jesus the first prefs so far are way out from the exit polls
sf romping
may elect a far higher number of seats than expected
anything else is too early, transfers are gonna be huge
first word is that sf transfers are not going as left as wouldve been expected, gonna get filthy
ff/fg decision on next gov just got loaded, because if we have to go again any time soon (or after a bad term like fg just managed) there seems little doubt that sf would run another 20 seats and lead the dail
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 12:22 (four years ago) link
FF were branded leftist in a red scare in the 1930s -- but I'm not too sure they have lived up to that since. I would probably call them centre-right with strong historic elements of populism and clientelism. Relations with the church are another historical factor somewhat distinct to Ireland, eg as against UK in the same period.
https://www.lookleftonline.org/2015/04/better-dead-than-red/
The 1932 election campaign had been ruthless, with the outgoing government attempting to label the ascending Fianna Fáil as communistic. On the eve of polling, Cumann na nGaedheal went as far as to take out a front-page advertisement in The Irish Times which warned the public that “The gunmen are voting for Fianna Fáil. The Communists are voting for Fianna Fáil.”Despite Cumann na nGaedheal claiming he was some sort of communist, the Fianna Fáil leader Éamon de Valera shared the view that communism was a poor fit for the Irish nation, remarking in 1931, before his party’s ascent to power, that “I doubt there is any country in the world that presents such an unfruitful field for Communism as our country. The individualistic tendencies of our people are against it; the system of land tenure – ‘peasant proprietorship’ – is against it, our Catholic faith is against it.”
Despite Cumann na nGaedheal claiming he was some sort of communist, the Fianna Fáil leader Éamon de Valera shared the view that communism was a poor fit for the Irish nation, remarking in 1931, before his party’s ascent to power, that “I doubt there is any country in the world that presents such an unfruitful field for Communism as our country. The individualistic tendencies of our people are against it; the system of land tenure – ‘peasant proprietorship’ – is against it, our Catholic faith is against it.”
― the pinefox, Sunday, 9 February 2020 12:29 (four years ago) link
what is the effect of the clientelism and the populism, tho, as regards the spectrum?
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 12:39 (four years ago) link
SF currently ahead on 1st prefs in Laois-Offaly. That’s new.1st prefs with 36% of boxes open
Latest #LaoisOffaly tally (36% open):- Stanley (SF) 20%- Cowen (FF) 14.5%- Ormond (FF) 11.8%- Nolan 10.9%- Flanagan (FG) 8.7%- Corcoran (FG) 8.3%- Fleming (FF) 7.3%- Leahy 6.8%- Hackett (GP) 4.5% https://t.co/NiaHHYwEjG— Maria Delaney (@mhdelaney) February 9, 2020
― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 12:50 (four years ago) link
theres no doubt that the first prefs are a landslide vs expectations and exit poll
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 12:54 (four years ago) link
I'm sure I've said it before but I've never been sure what the difference is between FG and FF as, to an outsider, they very much look like two cheeks of the same arse.
― (includes digression on farting) (Tom D.), Sunday, 9 February 2020 13:02 (four years ago) link
patrician vs clientelism is shorthand
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 13:22 (four years ago) link
SF going to top the poll in Dublin Bay North. They were 6th last time!
― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 13:43 (four years ago) link
lads ill give us this
it never devolves into accusations that all rats are gay or wtf else
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 18:59 (four years ago) link
This seems important!
― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Sunday, 9 February 2020 19:53 (four years ago) link
its huge
but the fun is that, after the initial exit poll, its shifting chaos for several days, in this case maybe weeks, as the counts, transfers, seats, and possible coalitions become apparent and then real
historic elections, these past few.
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 19:55 (four years ago) link
Varadkar can just brush SF aside with a "sorry, we don't like you", and that's that?
― Le Bateau Ivre, Sunday, 9 February 2020 19:57 (four years ago) link
no true English voter would put up with weeks of fucking about while you try to find a government that accurately represents the oh wait
― Todd Phillips, party auteur (Noodle Vague), Sunday, 9 February 2020 19:58 (four years ago) link
― Le Bateau Ivre
sure, why not?
not a trite dismissal, btw, but- notwithstanding that everything before the final seat counts are known is posturing - thats the official FG party position, they are quite significantly opposed on major issues of approach and priority, leo will have an eye on fg core vote at this stage, etc etc etc
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:04 (four years ago) link
lets not even, ok lets
gyac, can you cover the civil war politics issues of FG/SF, i reckon you may have a better take than i
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:05 (four years ago) link
xp to NV, im seeing a lot of "theres an onus on all major parties to enter into a broad alliance of..." etc etc
but any such govt would imo please nobody, really.
im not sure that FF/SF have any major ideological stumbling blocks if they can carve up the ministries and stay out of each others way besides
mainly because FF dont have an ideology, i guess
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:08 (four years ago) link
proportional governments don't feel too different to first past the post in that sense, you've still got to form a "coalition" that can get yr business done. as an outsider the FF/SF thing seems near inevitable at this stage, and i would imagine SF will be happy to let the big boys do most of the driving as long as they can use the opportunity in government to showboat/make themselves more credible/grind their usual axes take your pick
― Todd Phillips, party auteur (Noodle Vague), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:14 (four years ago) link
xp Christ, what gave you that impression? I’ll write something after dinner but what should I cover
― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:14 (four years ago) link
https://m.independent.ie/incoming/varadkar-says-fine-gael-coalition-with-sinn-fein-is-not-an-option-and-would-be-like-a-forced-marriage-38939826.html
― Saxophone Of Futility (Michael B), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:15 (four years ago) link
xp the relish with which you go at the blueshirts!
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:16 (four years ago) link
Just checking the seat figures for the first time in a while and wow SF have a lot of enthusiasm.
― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:17 (four years ago) link
xp it’s probably my residual ancestral guilt? But basically tl;dr why won’t they govern together?
― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:18 (four years ago) link
Leo Varadkar finding out he didn't get in on the second count is better with the Curb Your Enthusiasm music #GE2020 pic.twitter.com/jCT7gMHr7Z— Adam Gilroy (@GilroysWorld) February 9, 2020
― calzino, Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:19 (four years ago) link
That is incredible
― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:21 (four years ago) link
zombie Michael Lowry still topping the poll in Tipperary
― seandalai, Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:22 (four years ago) link
nv, ive a feeling that both ff and fg think that letting a waxing sf sit as official opposition while they pair up miserably awaiting the next election would merely make the current momentum shift worse
each of the former big boys also recognises that not forming a stable govt now means sf run forty extra candidates next time, and while a simple analysis isnt wholly reliable (either way! certainly an element of anti-sf vote would flee strongly back to FF/FG) based on today, twenty of them would get seats and that is really that.
ideologically, ff suit. in circumstances, ff suit (martin *has* to make taoiseach, even if its split- else become the only ff leader not to do so in his surely-numbered tenure).
sitting this one out might well suit fg, though the historical inevitability of being dumped after cleaning up the mess will smart, and the possibility that brexit and economy stabilised might make this next term a lot easier will reallllly smart.
leo will settle for a strong showing vs expectations and the suspicion that leader of the opposition might suit him a lot better than taoiseach, where he really seemed to die by consultant and inactivity.
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:24 (four years ago) link
nb i know nothing about irish politics either but we are story spinners are we not
can we get fred in here dyou think
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:28 (four years ago) link
re leo, i guess the avocado is well and truly smashed now huh
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:34 (four years ago) link
(xp) I think.
― (includes digression on farting) (Tom D.), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:36 (four years ago) link
tom what think ye of the shinner surge and will it hasten the 75 county republic
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:37 (four years ago) link
Now just where does that figure come from
― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:45 (four years ago) link
― seandalai, Sunday, February 9, 2020 8:22 PM (nineteen minutes ago)
A winner in Tipp since '97
― Saxophone Of Futility (Michael B), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:45 (four years ago) link
Know nothing about the SF outside the North tbh, they're pretty shitty there, though look at what they're up against ffs. The formation of the New Republic to be timed to coincide with 10-in-a-row or gtf.
― (includes digression on farting) (Tom D.), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:46 (four years ago) link
xp i have no idea how many counties we would divide the uk into silby, apologies i just threw that out there
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:46 (four years ago) link
sf policy in ni since brexit has been to not be there afaict
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:47 (four years ago) link
Isn’t it 74 darraghhttps://i.postimg.cc/CLK40nCh/654-B45-F2-B647-417-E-B1-ED-673-AB8-FC766-A.jpg
― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:48 (four years ago) link