Irish politics discussion thread

yeah loads of people i know are in australia. less in canada but heard a bit of that on the rise of late...

yeah. Know people that are gone both ways, depending on how things go here at my next contract renewal it could be a ting.

The ravers of the early 1990s are the parents, managers, editors, largely responsible adults who will spend the next decade or two at the coalface of a recession.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/features/2010/1108/1224282859372_pf.html

two decades!

we're so fucked i'm kinda high thinking about it

tbh i only think this is all funny now

― plax (ico), Wednesday, March 24, 2010 12:54 PM (7 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

tbh it's funny now.

tbh it's not going to be when the crash comes, and we get to look back on this last decade like americans in the 1930-40's looked on wall street in the 1920's

― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, March 24, 2010 12:55 PM (7 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

the crash comes?

― nakhchivan, Wednesday, March 24, 2010 12:56 PM (7 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

when the crash comes.

― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, March 24, 2010 12:56 PM (7 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

do people in ireland expect it to get drastically worse than it already is?

― nakhchivan, Wednesday, March 24, 2010 1:02 PM (7 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

tbh relatively ireland aint that bad, yet, its not the 80s or even the early 90s but i mean

― plax (ico), Wednesday, March 24, 2010 1:04 PM (7 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

i think it'll get iceland in september or so.

― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, March 24, 2010 1:05 PM (7 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

jesus

― nakhchivan, Wednesday, March 24, 2010 1:06 PM (7 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

there's still a huge amount of property overvaluation propping up the banks. foreclosures haven't started with gusto yet, but they will before long. the govt were criticised about predicting a 'soft landing' for the housing market instead of a crash in early 2008. that criticism was wrong- we're in the middle of our soft landing.

― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, March 24, 2010 1:07 PM (7 months ago) Bookmark

tbf, i was wrong- it is funny

may those german bankers be clement with you all

don't even know what to think about it...thought i wasn't patriotic but our country in the absolute shitter makes me feel sad.

true irish patriotism isnt sadness, it's pugnacious denial and eventual violence

well let me rephrase to "thought i didn't give a toss about our country either way"

deal with landlords all day every day, had an absolute peach on today- moan moan moan rent gone through the floor, moan moan moan tenant gettin the house for nothin, moan moan moan put my heart and soul into that house, do everythin for her, moan moan what? no i dont know the address, i'm not sure of the rent and sure how do i know if it meets the standards i've not been there in 7 years, i have an agent for that sort of thing....

it's a pleasure, sometimes, to come up against property speculators in a negotiation setting. though there are those you feel for.

nobody ever mentions that, even though the value of property has nosedived (but not crashed, yet), there are hundreds of thousands of families that have made huge money on property speculation, still getting good rent, second and third houses long since paid off, good equity in their own and other houses. but regardless of nominal value, these properties cant be sold now, and when they start to go it will be like the top of a rollercoaster headin down, it's gonna be carnage when the equity still supposedly in these properties goes go zero or minus figures. that's when the country will just clear out and we'll see the public anger really explode.

otoh it might all be ok, who knows eh

might wait for everything to collapse, go to some bankruptcy auction and buy a big delapidated house in the west of ireland and just chill / post to ilx / drink / be sad

read that kelly piece too....pretty dreadful prognosis but hope he's wrong

his prediction of a hard right anti-traveller party seems a bit baseless tbh...like the new world order has taken over and they'll be sending their soldiers back in time to kill john flynn-connor

yeah it does seem a bit of a peripheral thing to inspire some volkisch far right movement.....anti EU sentiment could get nasty but then barroso & chums don't live in firebomb friendly caravans parks in cavan

re: buyin big ol' house- yeah, if the permanent contract comes my way next year (fat chance) i'll be thinking about buying somewhere that's not a shithole, just to have a decent place. assuming a public sector permanent job is worth a gamble from the banks at that stage though.

the traveller thing jumped out, alright, but tbh when people really start to hurt, it's them or blackafricans (it's all one word, for some reason?) that'll be first in line, then irish unemployed, then who fuckin knows really.

eastern europeans in between , obv

wonder if there'll be a boom in poland/latvia/wherever with returning emigrants presumably looking to settle?

if we all chipped in, this has mad potential as an ilx retreat imo

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=492300

Achill Island is accessable only by road and offers all necessary amenities such as pubs, restaurants and shopping facilities

prioritised by a local imo

are there loads of germans on achill? fuckin heinrich boll innit...used to meet germans all over the west tho

that seems crazily overpriced....you could get a 2500 sq ft place for £800k in plenty of nice london suburbs

germans love the rugged west, gets them very soulful. heinrich boll like a fox imo.

it is crazily overpriced, but you can knock prob 20-5% off the asking price from the site straight away. other than that, location is ace so yeah it's gonna cost.

wishing for an 'I Love Ireland' board now so'd i could start a thread bout achill. prob not a goer on ile.

dead eyed psycho reincarnated prussian colonel germans vs soulful germans

need to take the ECB bros deciding yr fate over to the west, give them a few bottles of whiskey and hope they turn from the former to the latter

not the worst idea, that. down to the heinrich boll cottage in dugort, organise some strawboys dancing in front of a trf fire with an aul paul henry or two hangin up around the place. camille souter doin the hosting honours. lovely.

three distant memories of achill

sunny day, driving around, walking along the beach.....pretty great
stormy day, visibility about 20 yards, not so good but very sturm-und-drang.....i'd probably enjoy it more now
another time where someone had done (or elegantly redeposited) a shit in a pub urinal....possibly a german conceptual artist? [via kurt kren]

nah that was danny mac i'd say. avoid him.

achill in moody weather is best, but i think you'd need to see it on a good day first to compare/contrast, yeah. not much good if you're there for the beach, tbf.

but yeah this

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/818963/078.JPG

gotta get a decent camera ffs

just walked along the strand then drove around the hillier parts that day iirc....a+ tho, and the drive along the mainland near there is triffic too

tbf i kinda like the sea on gloomy winter's days now....usually try to get to the coast at least once in the winter, wander round a bit in a t-shirt looking mental/soulful....back to london in time for tea

#bobdylanmornings

will post these all night, the mood i'm in tbh

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/818963/Photos/Achill%20scenery/Achill%20(3).jpg

fantastisch

germans gonna sell my island ;_;

to get back to matters at hand;

Is the next great divide in irish society going to be homeowners vs non-homeowners? It's fairly likely that at least one party will offer a mortgage amnesty/bailout/whatever that will be funded, one way or the other, out of the central pot.

Another write-off of gambling debt imkneejerko. But i'm sure there'll be other viewpoints....

almost went to Achill last month while the girlfriend was over. climbed Croagh Patrick instead, also got a dose of weird flat grey winter beaches in Connemara.

There's a growing German presence in Kiltimagh, bearded self-sufficiency, poss 'modern relationships'.

anger at the travellers seems like the kind of thing that could be good kindling for right-wing party – always hear rumblings about what they've been up to locally when I'm over – but dunno, doesn't seem long-term fuel.

they keep stealin ppl's short term fuel, or so i heard from a fella

In the case of Ireland in particular, we need to recall that sovereign debt has not been at the origin of the crisis. Rather, private debt has become public debt.

O. Rehn, 09/11, never forget.

his prediction of a hard right anti-traveller party seems a bit baseless tbh...like the new world order has taken over and they'll be sending their soldiers back in time to kill john flynn-connor

I think maybe Kelly is moving outside of his area of expertise here - it's one thing for an economist to make economic predictions, but what does he know about politics? To suggest that a crazy anti-Traveller, anti-EU, anti-everything headbanger party will just spring into being and take over the country is a bit of a leap of logic.

That's not to say that there is not a rich vein of anti-Traveller sentiment here for any nasty politician to mine, but the Irish political system is rather resistant to new parties sweeping away the old.

yeah exactly. and like, there's always been anti-traveller sentiment, that last part just sounds like a total wackjob "oh and then this will happen, i reckon..." doomtimes prediction. there's never even been minor successes for a far right party in ireland.

If travellers were a reliable vote-winning topic, surely it would have been tried before? I can see it working in specific constituencies though.

I'd agree the country is ripe for some sort of populism, but I don't know what type. The mortgage amnesty might appeal but there's no way it's affordable. The anomaly of Ireland is that there is (on average) a large amount of private wealth, but the public finances are screwed. But transferring money from the voters to the government is unlikely to be the winning issue one might expect.

OP so poignant

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/nov/14/ireland-economic-crisis-bailout?showallcomments=true#comment-fold

thought this was a bit hopeful/wistful. i don't believe in any sense of unity in ireland that could give rise to a new or better political system, and i don't think that's just cynicism either, even amongst the youth there are chasmic gaps in values and beliefs.

also as much as yes, it would be disastrous if everyone just fucks off and leaves the cronies in charge, why would anyone stay with nothing to do or no jobs?

have to say it's v easy for a columnist like o'toole to make hay over all this, he writes well and with passion but there's not a figure in sight in that article, and it's the economy that's fucked, the moral budget or the balance sheets of the soul or whatever are just consequences of that.

Well it's a respite from the Guardian's usual coverage recently, e.g. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/14/ireland-economic-crisis, from which you'd think half the population are starving on the streets.

it's v easy for a columnist like o'toole to make hay over all this, he writes well and with passion but there's not a figure in sight in that article

agree with you, though i enjoy his articles on this whole mess regardless.

it would be disastrous if everyone just fucks off and leaves the cronies in charge, why would anyone stay with nothing to do or no jobs?

not to mention that the govt of the day would rather you just fucked off rather than draining the social welfare budget. course, the housing collapse that's bound to occur when not only economic migrants but natives clear out over a relatively short period can only make things worse. the ensuing pensions and other balance of payments deficit will pretty much ensure that there won't even be a medium-term prospect for recovery. you need young people working for relatively low wages, paying relatively high taxes, entering into car and house loans, for things as they are to work. and the nearlydeads are less willing to give up any entitlements than any other group, i think.

xp nobody starving, tbf. aside from that.... give it a year or two i'd say, and it's not like it's a secret that things like health, education, social welfare, jobs etc are in freefall with each passing month/budget.

We cannot keep constantly explaining to our voters and our citizens why the taxpayer should bear the costs of certain risks and not those people who have earned a lot of money from taking those risks.”

did merkel really say this? hasn't been explained once to me tbh

is there any way of reneging on nama at this point? surely they can see what an unmitigated disaster bailing out the banks has been?