Irish politics discussion thread

(ps i am somewhat of a pessimist)

i read the irish times last week and it was a horror story enough what with the opaque banking system and the paedopriests

even at the time the bubble seemed deranged, at least in london there is a natural scarcity of land and influx of people that puts a highish limit on any price collapse but the value of a huge mcmansion in the irish countryside is pretty arbitrary in some senses

arbitrary?

4/5 bed mcmansions currently offered for rent at about €100 a week, and they're struggling to find biters at that. mortage on a property like that is likely to be anything from 750 pm upwards.

that's kinda insane

compared to the sort of figures i'd be familiar with the price per sq ft is negligible, so without the land having much residual value it's sort of difficult to tell what else does? i dunno, you'll notice i'm somewhat unschooled in this area

land is rural in large part, rezoned through corrupt local planning decisions. it has absolutely nil residual value in most cases, and the houses are pretty much useless without the owner taking occupation.

i'm not sure about the likes of high density apts, city & town estates in the larger metropolitan areas, but given that there was more money in that side of things i'm fairly happy to assume that even where the values are holding in terms of investor groups picking up some of the slack, the oversupply biult up during the past decade is of at least the same magnitude.

estimates on empty housing units go as far as 300,000 iirc. govt disputes this of course. driving from the west coast to dublin, i'd not be surprised- anywhere west of the shannon new estate occupancy seems to be at about 20% for any development built in the past 3-4 years.

The Construction Industry Federation has said there is a need for accurate, reliable data on housing stock levels.

It was responding to research by UCD which found that there are 345,000 vacant houses and apartments across the country.

The CIF acknowledges that the figure is high but said different studies have come back with a variety of figures.

Its own figures suggest that 35,000-40,000 new homes remain unsold.

It says in Dublin the problem of unsold housing will resolve itself in around nine months, and with no development in the pipeline waiting-lists for housing will result in high growth areas.

The CIF admitted there is a problem in many counties around the country but said the market will ultimately sort that out.

the CIF are economists with the country's best interests at heart. they have rather magnificently been trying to float the idea of knocking all the empty houses as a keynesian macguffin exercise, because, hey, if oversupply's the problem then we've all got sledgehammers, right? expect sledgehammer rental prices, sledgehanmmer wielder wages to rise 40% this year. and on we go.

there are 345,000 vacant houses and apartments across the country.

and there are about 4 million people? that's just.....

i dunno

no, i'll do it, i'm good with maths thingies.

everyone gets 1/16 of a house, assumign that all of the units will be accepted into NAMA (they won't be, but then there will be plenty of occupied units taken in under the 'We'll cover your stupidity' initiative.

so what will you do with the airing cupboard of a bungalow in offaly?

well pre 2008 the obvious answer was rent it to a polish family.

i work in a housing scheme where the local authorities are renting properties to meet the needs of those on the housing list in the medium term. i can see most of those properties coming on to something like that- using excess capacity to actually solve a major problem.

everyone on a waiting list outside of the major metro areas (of which we have maybe 3) will have their housing need met or negated in the next three years, if we play it smart.

no, i'll do it, i'm good with maths thingies.

everyone gets 1/16 of a house,

lol. that's 1/12 of a house. so i've upgraded from hotpress to downstairs loo.

thought you must have been using the through the looking glass nu-maths popular in accountancy in the mid 00s

how much of that was developers assuming the population would be swollen by more immigrants? or did they assume everyone would go and buy a 3000sq ft house in the middle of nowhere

Developers only need to get a sale, they don't need a view on immigration, etc. Suspect cavalier investors were the target market there.

they wouldn't factor into individual developments but surely larger developers would have queried the levels of surplus being created

it was banks lending to individuals for the mcmansions, tbh.

then there's a layer of builders that would have always worked in the trade on a one-job-at-a-time basis that got in above their heads. they'd have gotten away with a lot of it as they'd have worked fairly organically- disposing of properties to fund the purchase of other sites, etc. they've mostly folded/are in the process of folding and the banks now own/soon will own whatever unfinished/unsold properties remaind on their portfolios (there are lots of these guys). they just reacted to a big surge in activity/demand for their services, not pre-meditated at all.

then there are superdevelopers, in hoc to banks for hundreds of millions. most of their activites were predatory, cynical and premeditated only in the sense of skimming huge supernormal profit out of the boom. they'll walk away rich for the most part, protected by a labrynthine relationship between govt officials, bankers, the law system and a fairly apathetic/powerless electorate.

NAMA is taking on the bank's toxic balance sheet assets (at a PREMIUM to current market value, btw- think about that at a time when values are plummeting and 350k properties are empty- we are assured that developers will be pursued to the fullest extent by the govt after this occurs. i have grave doubts.

sorry am a it tl:dr on this subject, but if you thought something was happening before your eyes that would lead to you emigrating in protest, you might be a little O_o yrself.

no, it's miserable but sadly compelling reading

labrynthine relationship between govt officials, bankers, the law system and a fairly apathetic/powerless electorate.

this isn't going to change is it?

at a PREMIUM to current market value

i believe the term was 'Future Value'.

they're not paying me at 'future value'. why not assume i'll get better at a rate of 8% per annum all of a sudden?

xp all depends on the apathetic part. there will be public sector strike action, i'm only hoping that it's as part of a total shutdown of the country. more than likely, it will be played beautifully as the elite protected workers rubbing it into the faces of the unemployed/private sector.

they're corrupt, venal, self serving and shallow cunts, FF, but they're not fucking stupid

was just pointing out the absurdity of it all with that phrase, darragh. dont see anyone in irish politics willing to switch the game up and the older generation (people who vote) still seem to cling to some hope that shure it'll have to get better soon.

yeah i know.

nobody in irish politics exists that has credibility to lead the assault on the banking and property sectors necessary. it will take something huge from outside the establishment to change that.

joe higgins and pat rabbitte need to procreate, basically. we can shelter the progeny through the dark years as a light in the darkness

CSO Figures show drop of 11.3% from 2008 in GNP

First calls from a backbencher for Cowen to resign. Not news until FF TD's are actually calling for an election, tbh, and not good news until they're decimated in that election.

John Gormley, Green Party Minister and my boss, has asked people to turn off all of their electrical items for an hour at 8.30pm tomorrow.

He's giving a televised speech about it for Earth Hour. Televised. At 8.30pm tomorrow.

NAMA day tomorrow guy. ready for the banks and developers to get the savage valuation of their assets expected?

what, no?

I know I'm talking in an empty room here for the most part, but if the unions buy this deal, on the details I've heard so far, I will fry my hat in a little butter, shallot and nutmeg and consume it with a wilted spinach side.

But they worked through the night to get this deal! Funny letter in the Irish Times today suggesting talks shd start in the morning instead of after lunch...

Unions- We don't want any more pay cuts.

Govt- Ok. We can't guarantee that though. We need you to agree to everything we ask- unconditionally, though.

Unions- Sound.

I don't even disagree with the reforms, tbh, but in terms of what the unions said they were seeking they've come out with fuck all.

I expect the details to maybe be a little sharper than what's posted above. But then again maybe not.

NAMA day starts with a bang!

Unions & govt agree deal

Quinn Insurance go into administration

I mean that last one is without warning, at the request of the financial regulator, and is huge news.

Why am I in a union again?

ha just mailed a fellow public sector friend asking him if he knew what qualifications you needed to become a union negotiator.

god help the dude if he plays poker.

fuckin shambolic. the govt could have come up with this 'compromise' on their own, except for two aspects- no public-service only pay cuts until 2014, and those under 35k to receive priority in the no-doubt-imaginary pay review of spring 2011.

and the final clause will wipe even those out, because everyone knows full well that the 'unexpected' deterioration in the exchequer is a goddamned fucking certainty.

btw, those of you not in public sector unions- 'the details' just came out.

This morning, the Cabinet was briefed by the Minister for Finance, NAMA and the Financial Regulator on the details of the impaired loan and recapitalisation schemes to be unveiled this afternoon.

A formal decision of the Cabinet will initiate the transfer of loans from the banks and building societies to NAMA.

At 4.30pm NAMA is expected to confirm the transfer of the first tranche of loans from Irish Nationwide and EBS and will give details of the discount it has applied to these loans.

It will also set out the discounts to be applied to the loans that will shortly transfer from Bank of Ireland, AIB and Anglo Irish Bank.

These are understood to be well in excess of the 30% estimated by the Government last year.

motherfuckers motherfuckers motherfuckers

16bn NBV (lols) worth of loans transferred for 8.5bn.

Almost sounds like good value, until you ask whether they're actually worth anything like 8.5bn- it's secured by 5bn worth of assets, the majority of those assets are .......
..........
..........

(wait for it)

.............
.............

LAND

oh good grief i'm fucking emigrating.

^^^^^^^^^

ok i dont really get any of this really but that last post sounds pretty scary d.

NAMA isn't turning out as badly as I first feared, actually. First hurdle cleared- we took a lot of bad loans from the banks, essentially, so that they could basically start again without those bad loans screwing up their balance sheets.

The good news is that we haven't overpaid as much as I'd feared. They had to take a 47% hit on average on today's loans.

The next step is now the crucial part- within 31 days anyone that owes money to NAMA will have to present a business plan for repayment. I have real doubts as to FF's ability to chase this aggressively, but as I've said a pleasant enough surprise today, despite my earlier post (was having a bad day besides with the union sellout).

It's up to the members of the various public sector unions to decide that this deal is acceptable or not. If a private sector firm offered terms like it to their employees backed by 'agree or else' terminology the media would be up in arms. Particularly if the financial situation the firm found itself in was as a result of mismanagement by the very executives arranging the threats/ultimatums.

So much for the protected public sector and their guaranteed contracts, eh?

The public sector, at the end of this crow's feast, will have become a minimum wage occupation at entry level.

Maybe that's a good thing, I don't know. Everyone else seems to think so.

Personally, and specifically relating to this 'deal'- I doubt very much that there is anything better on the horizon (on the day that the empty headed experts predict that we're coming to the end of the recession, mind you! As if!), but I still refuse to vote in favour of this deal.

It was negotiated in bad faith by a union team with more in common with the people opposite them at the fancy Croke Park meeting room table than the people they are paid (and paid well, without the pay cuts the rest of us have suffered) to represent in negotiations.

This deal is not the result of any negotiation process. It's a stinkbomb sent down from above with no editing required from govt inception to release as a fait accompli. When the unions (rightly) reject it as nothing more than a FF wishlist with no guarantee and no compromise from their side, then the media and govt can once again depict us as a band of bloodsuckers out to drain the country's current account of money it doesn't have.

It was a no-lose scenario for FF from the moment our own negotiation team rolled over for them, and I once again commend their political know-how.

A vote against this deal is likely a vote for further media & indeed message board pillorying (did I just invent that word?) of the public sector. It's likely a vote for pay that a lot of us can ill afford to lose going on strike days (which will be cleverly organised by our own unions so that they won't have to pay us any allowances- bet on it). It's certainly going to give this govt carte blanche to cut pay and conditions further (hooray! ten euro per hour take-home, here I come!).

So be it.

This is the first time anyone has been able to register a democratic vote of protest against this government's deeds, failings and methods. I only wish that there was a 'good on ye' attitude from the onlookers, as opposed to the 'tow-the-line ye greedy feckers' attitude that's not exactly served us brilliantly so far.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2010/0414/1224268309304.html

NAMA earning less than predicted. A week into operations.

Also confirms that unfinished developments outside of Dublin will be demolished if they can't be completed economically.

Who could have predicted it eh?

I'm in danger of turning this thread into a wasteland. Sorry!

Quinn Insurance accepts the appointment of an administrator.

not at all. but what can you say? that fintan o'toole article the other week saying there's nothing left to do except gtfo struck a depressing chord.

at this stage the best-case scenario is public sector unions rejecting pay deal --> all-out strike --> general strike --> particularly bloody coup d'etat.

Jesus that article is depressing. Come to london lads, barely anyone mentions the recession...and booze is cheap.

at this stage the best-case scenario is public sector unions rejecting pay deal --> all-out strike --> general strike --> particularly bloody coup d'etat.

This is certainly what I'm hoping for, but I'm pretty sure we all know where a public sector strike will lead. public strike ----> media slaughtering -----> no public support ------> faltering disaster -------> Govt/media triumph -------> futher cuts, this time gloves off.

It's almost like people have forgotten that there are private sector unions. It's certainly as if the public sector unions have forgotten about them as potential allies vs media/govt/big business.

labour party conference speech good

eh cowley i'm 50-50 on- great, great work locally and he's intelligent and capable. but i mean, letting himself get hijacked by those fucking clowns last time round lost him a lot of support and credibility

Worth reading, for all that it's in the increasingly cheerleadertastic Irish Times

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0420/1224268693609.html

Europe riding to the fucking rescue!