urban real estate boom and bust - historical precedents?

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I'm increasingly wondering about all the Jersey City development I'm seeing. Trump is building a new tower by the water. I read that there are something like 25 new residential towers being built or slated to be built right now.

Perhaps one of the most ridiculous examples is 1200-unit Beacon: http://www.thebeaconjc.com/

Located about 20 unpleasant blocks from the PATH and conveniently across from a Fried Chicken carryout (and probably a crackhouse or two), this condo development is marketing itself as ultimate luxury, overflowing with ammenities, etc. Its website in fact shows pictures of fancy bistros in the ultra-desirable Paulus Hook neighborhood -- which is probably at least a mile away. Granted it does have a private shuttle to downtown and the PATH, and it's supposed to eventually include its own private shopping.

But what I'm wondering is, what happens if all these buildings don't get filled? We must be looking at tens of thousands of new units coming into JC in the next few years at the same time as every part of NYC and the surrounding area are rushing to do the same thing. Will there be demand for all this luxury?

Is there any precedent for towns that get developed like this and then the demand doesn't come through? What happens? Do you just end up with a lot of cheap "luxury" apartments? Do they get converted to other uses?

― Abbadavid Berman (Hurting), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 02:42 (seventeen years ago) link

i've always wondered about that! good question. somebody answer, please

― s1ocki (slutsky), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 02:47 (seventeen years ago) link

Do you mean residential only? In LA's Bunker Hill area of downtown in the early 90's this has happened with commercial property but eventually the money/people came. Some buildings must've sat empty for years

― Thea (Thea), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 02:53 (seventeen years ago) link

Well, I guess commercial is relevant too. So basically in LA there was a bust and then another boom? Like how many years did it take?

― Abbadavid Berman (Hurting), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 02:55 (seventeen years ago) link

I think it was several years. Built in late 80's, languished until mid-90's when the recession ended, I think. But I didn't move there until '94 so I'm unclear on details.

It must happen in Latin America when dictatorships turn over and over. Caracas, maybe? Brazil? Someone else needs to jump in, here

― Thea (Thea), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 03:01 (seventeen years ago) link

i've always wondered about that! good question. somebody answer, please

-- s1ocki (slytus...), February 6th, 2006.

We should start a Jersey City WTF-ROFFLE-at-Development-Gawking club.

― Abbadavid Berman (Hurting), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 03:27 (seventeen years ago) link

Its website in fact shows pictures of fancy bistros in the ultra-desirable Paulus Hook neighborhood -- which is probably at least a mile away. Granted it does have a private shuttle to downtown and the PATH, and it's supposed to eventually include its own private shopping.
This also begs another question - why pay all that money to live in an urban area, if you're too scared/hoity-toity to ever venture out into your neighborhood?

― Erick Dampier is better than Shaq (miloaukerman), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 04:03 (seventeen years ago) link

proximity to work
status

― having fun with stockholm cindy on stage (Jody Beth Rosen), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 04:07 (seventeen years ago) link

i didn't mean jersey city specifically hurting (mostly because i've never been there)!

― s1ocki (slutsky), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 04:09 (seventeen years ago) link

Oh sorry, thought you lived here for some reason -- thinking of someone else.

xpost If you move into the coming Trump tower or a lot of the other coming buildings, your "neighborhood" is actually pretty hoity-toity by now. The Newport/Pavonia and Exchange Place neighborhoods -- pretty much the whole waterfront -- are all new construction high rises, upscale bars and restaurants, chain shopping etc. The area is getting a bit like the newer parts of Arlington/Alexandria for anyone who's been there -- City Lite(tm) across the river from a real city.

The Beacon, on the other hand, is probably trying to sell itself as an investment (besides being an "affordable" luxury option). Everyone is still crazy to find the "next" downtown Jersey City. But I doubt it's much of an investment at anywhere from $285,000 for a studio to $650,000 for a three bedroom. It's not like the neighborhood's about to get a Whole Foods or even a Starbucks.

― Abbadavid Berman (Hurting), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 04:19 (seventeen years ago) link

The Grove Pointe on the other hand, which is going to be all rentals, (my gf and I like to call it the Grove Poin-TE) is actually going to be in the best (in my opinion) part of JC - an actual neighborhood with some actual character. In fact it's right on top of the Grove St. PATH station, so I can see why someone with the bankroll would want to combine living downtown with the knowledge that your doorman will keep away the "rats and homeless" (as a local neighborhood association person put it)

― Abbadavid Berman (Hurting), Tuesday, 7 February 2006 04:23 (seventeen years ago) link

six years pass...

Found this old thread and thought it would be interesting to follow up.

http://thebeaconjc.com/floor-plans/

Turns out the development in the OP is at least part rentals now. Very fucking expensive ones! (2BRs range from $2800 - $3500). No idea whether they're actually getting that kind of rent right now or just think they can.

― click here if you want to load them all (Hurting 2), Friday, 29 June 2012 14:21 (ten years ago) link

Also I found this:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/once_a_modern_marvel_beacon_in.html

Building was apparently sold. Didn't do so well. Kinda predictable.

― click here if you want to load them all (Hurting 2), Friday, 29 June 2012 14:44 (ten years ago) link

And meanwhile, in my old hood:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304782404577486924234813812.html

The locally well-known semi-illegal artist loft center at 111 first street that was torn down years ago has apparently still not been replaced with the Rem Koolhaas-designed skyscraper that was supposed to go in.

― click here if you want to load them all (Hurting 2), Friday, 29 June 2012 14:58 (ten years ago) link

nine years pass...

Let's put this here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_H2xmRseiDw

Dude originally asked $500 million, went bankrupt when no one wanted it, now it's a mere $300 million at auction. Just wtf across the board.

― Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 30 January 2022 23:27 (one year ago) link

Always amazed at the crap taste of the uber rich - I mean, who would want to live in something that looks like the corporate headquarters of a bank or something?

― Zelda Zonk, Sunday, 30 January 2022 23:37 (one year ago) link

Apparently no one!

― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 January 2022 02:06 (one year ago) link

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