Democratic (Party) Direction

“nigh-libelous” oh OK

Shouting at ILX in general that they're stupid because they believe anything a poster types or says IRL about their life, when you can perceive that the poster has been engaged in a long-term campaign of fantasy in order to extort sympathy, and that neither the poster nor people who have offered them sympathy deserve any respect, is more the sort of thing I'm referring to.

I don’t think tombo has abused his mod authority (lol) aside from the silby incident but it is a bit weird to have a mod who seemingly exists entirely to vent seething inchoate rage at other posters who don’t share his worldview.

can we replace tombot as mod with sic? thanks in advance

it is a bit weird to have a mod who seemingly exists entirely to vent seething inchoate rage at other posters who don’t share his worldview

I don't see why mods should have less freedom of expression than any other poster.

I didn’t say he shouldn’t? I said it was weird. I think it’s weird in general to be that angry about nothing, obviously.

definitely don't let unperson be a mod. thanks in advance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shermanesque_statement

Can someone remind me what the donation bundler was that was looking at the tightest state races with low fundraising? I forget what it was called. It might've been Swing Left but I went there and couldn't find the page there, that named directly 8 or so competitive candidates.

you might be thinking of https://www.futurenow.org/givesmart/

ty that's it!

^ yeah. that org has their eye on state legislative races that will affect redistricting in 2021. the kochs worked that angle hard in 2010 and came up big for conservatives.

I've never donated to any political races before, but this year feels particularly awful. So good job, 2020.

Buttigieg also included a photo of himself as a kid dressed up as Spock for Halloween.

File this under "things that will remind most of ILX why they hate Buttigieg but remind me why I like Buttigieg"

I don't think that's at all a good indicator of why people hate him.

yeah I think for me it’s the dopey nonsensical platitudes and then stuff like this:

Mostly Deutsche Bank, a McKinsey client. It takes like 15 seconds of research to find this out. https://t.co/t4yBaN3PO0

— Corkus Bucksuth (@CorkusBucksuth) September 29, 2020

This slide from @DavidShor hits the nail on the head of why direct messaging against Trump (@ProjectLincoln ads, etc.) is ineffective in swing states.

Dem messages that actually move votes: talking about education & majoritarian economic policies. pic.twitter.com/Kecb0tCKLt

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 7, 2020

fortunately for them i don't believe the lincoln project actually has an interest in trump losing the election

the want him to lose while minimizing damage to the policy goals of the pre-trump republican party, which i guess explains their focus.

That's optimistic I think they just want that cheddar

I think they see him as long term damaging to the policy goals of the pre-trump part in a win the battle/lose the war sort of way.

xp yup, and running a campaign of “republicans for centrism” is a tactic to get some sweet lobbyist cash when they market themselves as right-wingers who have a foot in the door with a new Biden regime

Bernie drops a 7 minute "you'd better fucking get out there and vote for Joe Biden" video, I laugh at all the never-Bernies who insisted he was going to sulk on the sidelines and not support the nominee.

BTW my current feeling is that Biden is obviously ahead, Bernie probably would be too, but the candidate I actually liked by far the most, Elizabeth Warren, probably wouldn't be, and it makes me sad (about Democratic Party Direction among other things)

why?

Either Sanders or Warren would be making a much better case for their election, on top of the "anyone but Trump" campaign that Trump is aggressively running on Biden's behalf. The combination should balance out individual voter antipathy towards either.

Responses to that Bernie video are fucking depressing, telling myself those are mostly bots

Impressive to see so many people in the replies who still don’t comprehend the existence of the Electoral College.

why?

I think she doesn't have the "I'm an extremely normal old white guy who will run things competently and who will allow you to go back to not thinking about politics" thing that is very strong for Biden with suburban voters (and maybe older voters, too, though I think with that population it's just as much Trump's no-longer-concealable contempt for the idea that their lives are worth anything.) And she doesn't have Sanders's ability to super-activate young voters and "both parties are bad" voters (which includes left voters but also a much bigger group of "political correctness is bad and corporations are too powerful and there should be term limits" type voters, who broke big for Trump in 2016.) What does Warren have? She has what Clinton had, basically. Maybe a little more thanks to suburban Trump fatigue. I guess she'd maybe be ahead. But not by much. Who are the people who really see her as the answer? Middle-aged white people with advanced degrees, and there just aren't that many of us.

who still don’t comprehend the existence of the Electoral College.

The Electoral College is definitely the controlling factor in who wins the job, and winning the job is the whole point. However, entering the job as the recipient of a popular vote landslide gives you more leverage than narrowly squeaking in just because you won Wyoming, Alaska, the Dakotas and Utah. Politicians notice such things and play their hands according to the prevailing winds.

That's an enormous amount of bullshit. Dubya and Trump lost the popular vote and yet here we are. Obama had the largest popular vote margin since the '80s and yet here we are.

In any case, failure to give Biden the proper mandate (lol) would not be the same as the performative "if you don't vote for Biden, you're voting for Trump."

I agree, the idea that a popular mandate has an actual bearing on governance and law making is mostly a fantasy.

don't remember the GOP granting Obama or Bill Clinton any leverage

Republicans always claim mandate even if the numbers say ‘squeaker’. Democrats never claim mandate even in landslide conditions.

Real mandates come with coat tails. Obama was not the beneficiary of a landslide election, even with the financial crisis fast gaining speed in October, 2008. A real landslide brings both chambers of Congress with it and enough new faces who are beholden to you that you can push through your agenda. Clinton was a minority president in 1992, with Ross Perot splitting the vote.

Reagan chose to pretend he had a mandate in 1980, but he did most of his damage (like Trump) through executive action or by playing the media skillfully to win public support for horrible policies, like deregulation and union busting. His real power was his speaking ability.

Biden seems destined to have no coat tails. Trump may be able to generate a 'negative coat tail' effect, but that is a long shot. I'd be ecstatic with simply retaking the Senate by 51-49, with Harris as the tie-breaker in reserve.

So, outside of swing states, it doesn't actually matter if you vote for Biden (or Democrat X) because landslides don't actually grant the leverage you referred to earlier, having one-party control of Congress in alignment does. (Obama '08 had Congress IIRC.)

Thus "not voting for Biden" is not actually "a vote for Trump" as the people who pretend the EC doesn't exist every four years claim.

Thus "not voting for Biden" is not actually "a vote for Trump"

The people you are dismissing as wrong are not entirely wrong, but mathematically speaking, the value of one vote not cast against you is not "one vote", but a ratio, based on the number of votes cast and the number of potential voters. The larger the number of non-votes, the less value each non-vote has to the outcome.

an exchange between aimless and milo z. how riveting

as we used to say, another party heard from

I agree, the idea that a popular mandate has an actual bearing on governance and law making is mostly a fantasy.

Republicans always claim mandate even if the numbers say ‘squeaker’. Democrats never claim mandate even in landslide conditions.

This US political commentator taught me about Reagan's mandate

(a few years before a new right-wing PM in Australia claimed that winning the lower house by two votes out of 149, and not gaining the Senate for another nine years, gave him a mandate)

two votes seats

Per Aimless’s logic, if everyone in, say Wisconsin, was going to just not fill out the presidential box on the ballot when they could vote for Biden, they can feel less guilt in a second Trump term because everyone else did it.

Not my stance, but an interesting undertaking

My logic, if I took the time to perfect it, would be an equation that expressed the exact degree to which any vote or non-vote contributed to an election's outcome, based on a complex of variables, including the total of potential votes, the outcome, the total of votes for each of the top two vote-getters, and the total of non-votes for either of the top two, where any votes cast for candidates other than the top two would be wrapped into the total of non-votes.

It has nothing to do with guilt. People are allowed to vote or not vote according to their idea of the best choice. But it is mathematically obvious that voluntarily not voting when you could vote does have a consequence to election outcomes, and the exact consequences of a non-vote could be measured in any election. It's just not the blissful simplicity of "refusing to vote for Biden is a vote for Trump".

I think you could calculate the consequences of a non-vote on an election that has already happened. I don't know about trying to come up with that number (?) beforehand.

You can see the probability any one vote determines the outcome of the election here. It’s a remote possibility everywhere but it’s really remote in some places, generally states that are very blue/red or very large or both: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president (half way down the page, sort by “chance of voter deciding election”). The number isn’t useful in an absolute sense but it does give a feeling of scale for what’s a stake when someone in like DC chooses not to vote vs someone in New Hampshire or PA or whatever.

The heat map from Slate was good:

https://compote.slate.com/images/513f1aaa-c7d5-41ab-bf81-439efeb625c5.jpg

I mean, basically it's just another way of pointing out that swing sates are important.

And I guess if you want to get technical: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/gelmankatzbafumi.pdf

Beforehand all the necessary variables are unknown values. My main point is that both individual votes and individual non-votes do individually influence election outcomes to a measurable amount, even if the exact amount is not predictable ahead and can only be calculated accurately afterward.

i mean, some elections have been decided by 10 votes or less, but has any election been decided by a single vote?

proof: your vote doesn't matter in any election

I mean, it assumes you talk to no one else and your voice in your social circle is worthless. I understand the stance of not voting, voting for a third party, whatever. But I will never live long enough to perfect my logic on this and I simply live in a so-called swing state and drummed the importance of voting into my family and peers enough that they were asking me this week whether I had voted yet, because they had.

I voted for Aimless obvs