Buying A House: C or D?

but I also have no idea how hard building a house is, it seems like it would be very hard

― Clara Lemlich stan account (silby), Tuesday, May 25, 2021 4:59 PM (five hours ago)

It depends on what you're building and where? I still remember driving through the midwest and seeing the trucks with the prefab houses on them. It definitely made me realize that when you grew up where there are earthquakes, there are a lot of types of construction that you just don't see, but that are super common in other places ... like all those brick buildings that are omnipresent on the East Coast in college towns.

But there definitely seems to be an increasing trend of prefab structures that go with the "tiny homes" trend. Like, you can basically buy a prefab accessory dwelling unit to put in your backyard that meets national building code and residential code standards.

The replacement cost of my house is under 20% of its value. The rest is land.

that's actually pretty high! ... idk, I am used to looking at this stuff for commercial buildings where the land is like worth a million dollars and the structure is "worth" like $100k or less ...

commercial structures seem like they would be cheaper per per sq ft to build than houses?

depends on the structure tbh; some are cheaper, some are way more expensive. The actual construction materials and labor (the hard costs) are only part of it -- you also have to deal with engineering, architectural, permits, etc. ... Housing tends to be viewed as a "public good" as opposed to certain types of commercial structures, where the permit fees are often higher. A one story storage warehouse is more likely to be cheaper to build than a single family home. If that warehouse is actually going to be a Home Depot or big chain retail store ... the construction costs might be similar to if it was Random Warehouse Inc. but throw in a large corporation and retail and parking and traffic, and cities will (in my mind, rightfully) charge the companies a lot of money in impact fees, plus all the EIRs and traffic studies, etc. And then you get into things like hotels or an office tower that's like over 6 stories? ... Definitely not cheaper in California. .. Though actually, I could be wrong ... you probably could code a bot that could get this actual data.

Interesting thread on the crazy housing market we are in

6 of 15: Lumber prices are up 300%.

— Glenn Kelman (@glennkelman) May 25, 2021

Does not look much like 2006, although that doesn't necessarily mean it's sustainable or not some kind of bubble. I could see the trend of WFH professionals moving to rando small cities potentially starting to reverse or at least subside. I can't imagine every facebook programmer that moves to Boise is going to be happy there or that there's an endless supply of people willing to do so. Regardless, creates an extremely shitty situation for people who's job is tied to location, which jobs also happen to usually be the lower paid ones.

SRY thread starts here

1 of 15: It has been hard to convey, through anecdotes or data, how bizarre the U.S. housing market has become. For example, a Bethesda, Maryland homebuyer working with @Redfin included in her written offer a pledge to name her first-born child after the seller. She lost.

— Glenn Kelman (@glennkelman) May 25, 2021

I know Zillow zestimates are of limited reliability, but mine is up 8% since I bought my house in September, in an already frenzied market

posted here yesterday fyi

Ah. It has disappeared into the "skipping" black hole and I didn't see it.

since we've skipped back, I want to take the opportunity to commend caek on his data visualization!

They make a big point of "it's not just the big cities" but... it kind of is? The big cities and their greater metros? 3-bedroom houses in Bakersfield are going for $350K. Under $300K in Fresno. I just think if they mean "coastal California from the Bay Area to San Diego" they should say so.

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Tuesday, May 25, 2021 2:51 PM (two weeks ago) bookmarkflaglink

nowhere in CA is housing good and affordable

The amount of substandard housing in Fresno is shocking.

It's even more shocking when you consider that the city has had some of the nation's highest rent increases over the past four years — including during the pandemic. https://t.co/XvVysIia9x

— Liam Dillon (@dillonliam) June 8, 2021

it actually doesn't take much for housing to be categorized as "substandard" ... like, I would be shocked if a city had a very low percentage of housing that was "at least" substandard. Basically, it's a technical term that means "not up to code, but not that bad." There are two levels of "worse" above it.

If the tweeters are using "substandard" to refer to all non-code compliant housing, including housing that has major life-safety hazards to the extent that people should not be living there then it's kinda different?

It's like saying, "the amount of not good cops in America will shock you" ...

Our house is 150 years old and sinking into the earth

i.e. substandard

i don't know if dillon is using it in the technical sense but 1) fwiw he's the housing reporter in sacramento for the biggest newspaper in california, so he might? 2) i think his point is clear in any case

fun fact: we're having a fence raised 2 feet right now by a contractor, and we stipulated the appearance of the wood in the contract and that it should be "hardwood" to match the existing stuff and our contractor took on the risk of finding the wood for an agreed cost to us.

wood is in such short supply/so expensive right now that our contractor could only find ... i'm not kidding ... walnut. the fence in our back yard is now walnut. and our contractor is out of pocket several thousand dollars (he'll make it back on the rest of the job).

well that is definitely hardwood

lmao

i suppose it could have been a fence made from 1930 Martin guitar fretboards

also i challenge the next strong wind to blow ~your~ fence down

fkn come at me bro lol

Seems like anyone building fences would be a little bit of a wall nut.

My god, that's almost...immoral. Walnut! Did they have trouble driving fasteners through it?

i have to replace my 20x16 detached garage by October and the wood prices are terrifying me

Mid century modern fencing

Are other supplies as bad as lumber rn? We are planning our bathroom renovation which probably will not require any lumber (not changing the layout) but curious about tile and other stuff.

Oh hi, I am in the midst of a gut reno of a 1920 bungalow. Pro tip: order appliances at least 10 months before you need them, because that's how long it will take for them to deliver. Toilets, on the other hand, are only 6-12 weeks out.

Tile is not so bad.

Q: couches - where can you get one, like, tomorrow?

A: nowhere

Ugh C is replacing his entire kitchen in August/Sep so I guess he should order that new range now, eh?

I think I have finalized the kitchen design...it's fully custom because a friend is building the cupboards, which SEEMS like a good thing until you realize it takes all the structure out of having to choose cabinets, which makes it more complicated. Also, you have to choose little things really early on, like what ELECTRICAL OUTLETS you want, because they affect cabinet sizes etc. It's a little overwhelming but I think we're getting there.

I had to have some work done on my porch replacing some rotten boards, was pretty expensive for a small job

my contractor said things are so nuts

like usually for a big job the main lumber order would be 35k, now it's 75-80k before they've hammered one nail

I have friends who bought a new house in December and ordered all new furniture cause their old furniture was 20+ years old and still haven't received most of it yet.

Yeah we've had some issues with furniture - we ordered our sectional when we got to the house in the fall and any custom color/fabric would have taken like ten months so we just got what they had in stock. Later we ordered patio furniture and it took months and some of it isn't coming until this fall. Even the umbrella was just delayed to August which is annoying because, you know, summer.

Thankfully we already have the vanity for the bathroom. Hopefully fixtures/toilets/shower doors are not too bad.

Obvious solution here is never renovate

We renovated our kitchen 4 years ago with all new appliances and the garbage disposal, oven and fridge all broke last week. Had to pay to get the oven fixed and fixed/replaced the other two myself

See, what did I tell you

We had to replace a couple gates and a fence in our yard this summer. It was definitely more expensive than I would have guessed (although all three quotes we got were within $200 of each other), but I'm glad we kicked it off when we did. Talking to the foreman when they were here the other day, he said if we signed the contract now it would be 60-75% higher than what we paid.

I bookmark this thread to remind me that it's for the best that I still rent

note to self: let house fall down around me

that appears to be the course i'm on

OTOH, periodically checking Redfin / Zillow and seeing my house is guesstimated at 180% what I paid for it in 2009 makes my retirement more realistic. Have delayed refinancing, but am going to jump on it now, aiming for a 10 year fixed. Will still pay less than current payment, and will keep applying extra monthly to principal. 2008 build. House exterior's in good shape. Feel lucky that original home builder CamWest had deserved reputation for good quality. A few appliances are starting to die glorious deaths, like my garbage disposal, too. Coincidence or AI evidence?

xxp - torn between the shiftiness of renting and wishing I’d have been able to buy and the anxiety attack I have for my
mom’s roof every time there’s a chance of hail.

Q: couches - where can you get one, like, tomorrow?

A: nowhere

Used, everywhere.

My god, that's almost...immoral. Walnut! Did they have trouble driving fasteners through it?

― Ima Gardener (in orbit), Thursday, June 10, 2021 8:45 AM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

yes! it's taking them like 30 minutes to put up each board at the moment.

here's the gate. bottom half is some tropical hardwood. top half is "construction grade" walnut ($11/ft). they're going to stain it to look like the bottom. there's another 30 ft of this to go.

https://i.imgur.com/oAXylDL.jpeg

and i agree it is immoral but they told us it would probably add 3-4 months delay if we waited for more suitable wood, so immoral it is!

Nice bookcase you've got there!

fwiw lumber is finally falling

July lumber futures peaked a month ago and are limit down again today, lowest price since April 22nd: pic.twitter.com/2PfiWBKZLp

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) June 7, 2021

but appliances and fixtures/fittings are going to take longer to come back in stock.

we bought one of these (i know it's insane $ for some foam but it's big hit, highly recommended if you have young kids, made lockdown bearable). like i say, it's just foam, shipping from inside the US. it took 9 weeks to be delivered.

https://nuggetcomfort.com/products/the-nugget

and now this https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/business/starbucks-shortages.html

caek is that big enough for a smallish adult

Asking for me

yes, i have slept on it

Ha we just got our nugget after ordering it like 5 months ago

"We believe we will continue to experience below-average levels of new housing supply in our markets which will support future rental rate growth and home price appreciation." Blackstone, in the prospectus for the Invitation Homes REIT

— Alex Fisch (@AlexFischCC) June 9, 2021

When they tell you why they're going to do what they then do, believe 'em. pic.twitter.com/FIoRvD12KG

— Alex Fisch (@AlexFischCC) June 9, 2021

How do can we stop the REITs? American Homes 4 Rent, another residential REIT buying your neighborhood, recently disclosed its Achilles' Heel in another SEC filing--more homes equals more vacancies and slower rent growth. pic.twitter.com/mL41xlUqjL

— Alex Fisch (@AlexFischCC) June 10, 2021