ILX, what do you know about peak oil?

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life as you know it will end in the next 10-20 years : (
it won't mean a goddamned thing who's president then.
in fact, it's probalby already too late to start adapting for it now, not that renewable energy sources and sustainability is high on anyone's list of priorities anyway.

trigonalmayhem, Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:22 (eighteen years ago) link

I know a bit about teak oil. Is that any use?

Alba (Alba), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:24 (eighteen years ago) link

Gee, thanks, it's not as if I wasn't unsuccessfully fending off panic attack anyway.

Michael Daddino (epicharmus), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:25 (eighteen years ago) link

Cars can run quite happily on vegetable oil. I've never really understood why they don't already. Maybe there aren't enough vegetables. I don't know.

I realise it's somewhat harder adapting power stations etc. to run on it.

It's a bit longer than 10-20 years, is it not?

Alba (Alba), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:27 (eighteen years ago) link

It's been 10-20 years away for the last 40. It won't stop oil getting more expensive though. To find more, you have to look in more expensive places.

Ed (dali), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:29 (eighteen years ago) link

just sayin'.
There are plenty of reasons for a panic attack.

I mean, also:

Bush was once involved in the oil business, so he can't be completely ignorant of the problem, right? Even Texaco and ExxonMobil have admitted that their supplies have peaked (and many people think OPEC has or is in the process of doing so right now).
Bush has been funneling oil into the US Strategic Oil Reserve for quite a while, despite some complaints that it's driving up the price of oil domestically. Think maybe there's some reason behind that?
And lastly, let's face it: Iraq had nothing to do with terrorism or WMDs, but happened to be an oil-rich country run by a man hostile to the US. What better way to buy a few more years of cheap oil than to invade Iraq, where thanks to sanctions they're too weak to put up as much of a fight as any of the OPEC nations could.

trigonalmayhem (trigonalmayhem), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:29 (eighteen years ago) link

more like 50 years. They are constantly finding new reserves, but in places where it is trickier to extract.


MarkH (MarkH), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:29 (eighteen years ago) link


Thermo Thinwall (Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:31 (eighteen years ago) link

Watch End of Suburbia. It tells you all you need to know.

I originally thought i was gonna be another scare tactics film, but when they show Matthew Simmons (CEO of an energy investment bank, consultant to Halliburton and part of Cheney's Energy Committe) saying, "yep, the games up - from now on it gets worse"...

It's weird that no-one has really picked up on this tho..

Jack Battery-Pack (Jack Battery-Pack), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:32 (eighteen years ago) link

No, US oil supplies were what they first worried about (and summarily dismissed concerns about until it happened). US domestic fields peaked back in the 70s, I believe. Since then we've become increasingly more dependent on unstable governments in the middle east for oil, which is truly the lifeblood of the US economy.

The whole concept of peak oil is that OIL WILL GET DRAMATICALLY MORE EXPENSIVE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. 10-20 years might be optimistic, actually.

As for alternative fuel sources, there's hardly enough research going into them right now for them to even be a possible solution, but aformentioned vegetable oil cannot be produced in sufficient amounts to meet our energy consumption as a nation.

Much of our energy consumption, in fact, comes from our complete wastefulness with it. Single-occupant automobiles are FAR less energy efficient than mass transportation. We leave lights on in office buildings at night for no reason. We run appliances when we're not using them. We waste waste waste, and never care. Why? because energy is cheap!

But it won't be for long.

trigonalmayhem (trigonalmayhem), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:34 (eighteen years ago) link

Oh yes. I am never going to learn to drive ever. Buses and trains for me all the way. i do fly tho, which is incredibly wasteful.

MarkH (MarkH), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:35 (eighteen years ago) link

50 years? HA!
Are you aware that auto sales in china and india are just starting to boom? There's no way at the current levels of discovery that they can keep pace with the demand of even the US, let alone another few billion people in those countries.

There are charts showing how oil field discovery has not kept pace with demand for a while now, but production has continued to increase thanks to a large surplus in discovered fields in the past. That surplus of discovered but not drilled oil has pretty much run out, though.

trigonalmayhem (trigonalmayhem), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:36 (eighteen years ago) link

i do fly tho, which is incredibly wasteful

blimps, yo!

g--ff (gcannon), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:37 (eighteen years ago) link

RE: End of Suburbia
I need to see this.


"Hosted by Barrie Zwicker. Featuring James Howard Kunstler, Peter Calthorpe, Michael Klare, Richard Heinberg, Matthew Simmons, Michael C. Ruppert, Julian Darley, Colin Campbell, Kenneth Deffeyes, Ali Samsam Bakhtiari and Steve Andrews."

Ha, I've already books by half of those people.

trigonalmayhem (trigonalmayhem), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:39 (eighteen years ago) link

Frankly, on a day like this, I start to hope energy crisis domesday predictions do come true. The Western world could maybe do with such a shock to its system. Spiritual renewal and all that.

Alba (Alba), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:39 (eighteen years ago) link

I'm inclined to agree.

Until a few weeks ago it was my goal in life to help redesign american cities to be more energy efficient and make better use of public transportation.

But now I'm just ready to jump ship and run to someplace that has the right idea already.

trigonalmayhem (trigonalmayhem), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:40 (eighteen years ago) link

no -- you really don't want these doomsday predictions to come true.

here are some good links concerning peak oil. just the antidote for today's horrible mood. (Harper's 'the oil we eat', article about the degree to which US food production is extravagantly oil dependent)

(Jon L), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:43 (eighteen years ago) link

Oil on Mars, eh? You know, I've been hearing that the unelected despot who's running the show up there HATES FREEDOM and is STOCKPILING WEAPONS!

briania (briania), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:47 (eighteen years ago) link

God, I'm so glad that some people actually understand this problem.
Everyone I talk to about it around here either shrugs it off or doesn't believe me.

PS, coincide #2353493:
Bush plans manned expeditions to Mars for the near future.

trigonalmayhem (trigonalmayhem), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:49 (eighteen years ago) link

hello spelling

trigonalmayhem (trigonalmayhem), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:52 (eighteen years ago) link

"I must caution you that OPEC is only one factor that impacts oil prices and that higher crude oil production does not guarantee that there is more gasoline available for US consumers."

so says Ali Al Naimi, the Saudi Oil Minister, quoted on the Peak Oil site. In this respect I am sure he speaks the truth. But he also said that he was convinced that the very last barrel of oil produced anywhere in the world would be from Saudi Arabia and I'm very dubious about that.

MarkH (MarkH), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:57 (eighteen years ago) link

Well, they could always keep one barrel back, just for fun.

Alba (Alba), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:57 (eighteen years ago) link

The very LAST barrel, that wouldn't suprise me, actually.
They have vast fields, it's true. But they can only extract so much from them per day. The peak is about production not about physical oil remaining.

wayne (trigonalmayhem), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 19:59 (eighteen years ago) link

Isn't it mining of Asteroids that will be the next big thing? All sorts of private enterprises will try that I think.

Yes, I remember watching a documentary on a little island that has run cars and everything on vegetable oil for years, as they are sort of war with some one or another, out in the Pacific.

jel -- (jel), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 20:01 (eighteen years ago) link

there won't be any oil on asteroids. Oil requires organic matter to form, remember?

MarkH (MarkH), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 20:05 (eighteen years ago) link

same with coal.

MarkH (MarkH), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 20:05 (eighteen years ago) link

Science ain't my thing ;/

Oh maybe, it was mining for metals! We're not gonna run out of metal, we can just build cars that don't go, we'll all have Flintstones cars.

jel -- (jel), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 20:08 (eighteen years ago) link

I don't know how they'd afford fuel to send the rockets into space.

Besides, we have plenty of metals here on earth, they're just wasted and sitting in people's front yards (broken down old cars, anyone?).

trigonalmayhem (trigonalmayhem), Wednesday, 3 November 2004 20:12 (eighteen years ago) link

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