Is democratic reform in Saudi Arabia in Americas national interest?

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do you think that reform in saudi arabia is in americas interest?

if so, how will this be pursued?

will there be any difference between bush and kerrys stance on this, post election?

gareth (gareth), Saturday, 6 March 2004 07:09 (twenty years ago) link

In "America's interest" as defined by the government, no. Saudi Arabia would be ruled by groups hostile to the US which can only hurt us on oil importation.

miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Saturday, 6 March 2004 07:11 (twenty years ago) link

Democratic reform is only one part of the puzzle. This is/was a basic flaw in the U.S. policy toward the Soviet Union, Haiti, probably Iraq, and a number of other places. Without other structural changes in the society, or in effect, the creation of a new society, democratic reforms will be essentially meaningless. Anarchy or theocracy is the more likely result in Saudi.

The society needs:

1. A more even distribution of economic resources across the population
2. An end to monarchal underpinnigs, i.e. the concept of aristocracy has to go
3. Literacy
4. Understanding of a market economy
5. General stake in the economic stability of the country by most of the population
6. End of state sanction race hate
7. Freedom of press/religion

Many other factors.

It's safe to say, this will never, never, never happen in Saudi.

Skottie, Saturday, 6 March 2004 16:14 (twenty years ago) link

Not just a new society, but a new culture. Ain't going to happen.

Skottie, Saturday, 6 March 2004 16:15 (twenty years ago) link

the jesus freaks in DC won't get along with the allah freaks who would take over saudi arabia who would take over should that country go democratic.

Eisbär (llamasfur), Saturday, 6 March 2004 16:26 (twenty years ago) link

What Bushco wants from a "democratic" Saudi Arabia is reliable legal framework within which Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can flourish, i.e. they want better and more reliable access to S.A.'s oil profits. They also want this in Iraq. They want this in Equatorial Guinea. They want this wherever they can get it. But only to the extent that it insulates the country from radical elements that might try to nationalize, or re-nationalize, the country's assets. They have played along w/the Sauds until now because the family has been very good at keeping things on an even keel, and Bushco knows the Sauds will never do anything like nationalize their oil industry, or use any substantial chunk of their oil profits to assist the lower rungs of society. Bushco is very afraid of meaningful democracy in the region. What they want is a oligarchy with a thin schmear of democracy over the top, which would give them political cover for doing business with these nations, and an excuse to invade if an "undemocratic" (i.e. "uncapitalist") coup took place and cut off the profit pipeline.

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Saturday, 6 March 2004 19:51 (twenty years ago) link

Don't disagree, tracer. But the Saudis did nationalize the oil industry in the 60s or 70s.

Skottie, Saturday, 6 March 2004 19:55 (twenty years ago) link

Not just a new society, but a new culture. Ain't going to happen.

How is that not incredibly condescending? So the people of Saudi Arabia cannot handle any form of progresive government, ever?

bnw (bnw), Saturday, 6 March 2004 20:01 (twenty years ago) link

The society needs:

1. A more even distribution of economic resources across the population
2. An end to monarchal underpinnigs, i.e. the concept of aristocracy has to go
3. Literacy
4. Understanding of a market economy
5. General stake in the economic stability of the country by most of the population
6. End of state sanction race hate
7. Freedom of press/religion

Many other factors.

you could say at least some of these things about the UK and Japan, for that matter.

Eisbär (llamasfur), Saturday, 6 March 2004 20:06 (twenty years ago) link

and the USA too (at least as long as The Royal Bush Family still holds any sort of political power anywhere and at any time over here).

ibashmyowntoobär (llamasfur), Saturday, 6 March 2004 20:07 (twenty years ago) link

Look at some of the significant features of Saudi society.

1. Women are not allowed to drive.
2. Women are not allowed to appear in public without a male family member.
3. Despite countless billions in oil revenues, more and more of the population exists in poverty.
4. Women are denied meaningful access to education.
5. Literacy: male: 84.7%
female: 70.8%
6. arable land: 1.72%
7. 35% of the population in the 15-64 age group is non-national
8. Still "at war" with Israel, the country, or rather Jews, blamed for most of the world's problems.

It's unlikely that the physical, geographical, political, religious, and economic features of the country and culture are going to allow for positive change.

Rather than saying that it's condescending not to adopt Marlo-Thomas-I'm-OKAY-you're-OKAY-free-to-be-you-and-me party line that all cultures are equally valid, you can point out how the specific features of the saudi culture are going to lead to positive change.

Skottie, Saturday, 6 March 2004 20:13 (twenty years ago) link

Certainly the west and Japan can improve literacy, wealth distribution, personal freedoms. Of course there's always room to improve. To say that because the US and the UK can improve that the situation is analagous to Saudi is at best disingenuous. At worst, just bizarre.

Skottie, Saturday, 6 March 2004 20:16 (twenty years ago) link

1. Women are not allowed to drive.

that sucks, and seems to be something peculiar to muslim fundamentalist societies.

2. Women are not allowed to appear in public without a male family member.

again, that sucks. but see the "barefoot and pregnant" mentality of the christian right (and other neanderthals of whatever [or NO] religion). the mindset is not peculiar to the saudis, though arguably its mentality is.

3. Despite countless billions in oil revenues, more and more of the population exists in poverty.

see United States, jan '01 to present.

4. Women are denied meaningful access to education.

again, not exclusive to the saudis. see also those ranting against affirmative action.

5. Literacy: male: 84.7%
female: 70.8%

what's the appropriate context for a valid comparison? is this out-of-whack for a country of saudi arabia's economic development?

6. arable land: 1.72%

this has to do w/ geography, not the saudi government's doing!

7. 35% of the population in the 15-64 age group is non-national

what's alarming about this is that the non-nationals are treated poorly. again, this is not exclusive to the saudis -- and american illegals (or german/french/japanese/israeli "guest workers") aren't exactly pampered, either.

8. Still "at war" with Israel, the country, or rather Jews, blamed for most of the world's problems.

there's no anti-semitism outside of saudi arabia?

Eisbär (llamasfur), Saturday, 6 March 2004 20:22 (twenty years ago) link

Er, your argument seems to be that other countries are/may be similarly screwed. Which is sort of perpendicular to the topic.

Andrew Farrell (afarrell), Saturday, 6 March 2004 20:36 (twenty years ago) link

maybe i botched it wr2 execution, but i'm agreeing with bnw in that i find the notion that the saudis cannot handle democracy and/or "progressive government" to be condescending. in that the many of the problems cited wr2 the saudis are NOT exclusive to them, yet countries w/ those problems have managed to have democratic and/or "progressive" governments. (i put "progressive" in scare quotes b/c of that term's slipperiness).

Eisbär (llamasfur), Saturday, 6 March 2004 20:49 (twenty years ago) link

i mean, IRAN has a lot of similar problems ... yet the general consensus in the west seems to be that a more democratic iran = good thing.

Eisbär (llamasfur), Saturday, 6 March 2004 20:49 (twenty years ago) link

The Saudis have had billions in revenue to develop other industry outside of petroleum, but have squandered the opportunity.

Compare the economic development of South Korea or Taiwan to Saudi Arabia, both of which were also completely built from scratch around the same time without the natural gift of billions in oil revenue.

earlnash, Saturday, 6 March 2004 20:57 (twenty years ago) link

you can point out how the specific features of the saudi culture are going to lead to positive change

I'm not sure how proving the society isn't progressive now proves it can't change in the future. Pressure for reform will come internally (and hopefully externally) the more globalization continues to move across Asian and Arabic countries.

bnw (bnw), Saturday, 6 March 2004 21:54 (twenty years ago) link

Much as I dislike the Christian Right, to equate that mentality with the treatment of women under fundie sharia is going a bit far.

It's one thing to want a woman to raise kids and stay at home, it's another to beat her to death for being raped (etc. etc. etc.).

miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Saturday, 6 March 2004 22:49 (twenty years ago) link

I don't suggest that the people of Saudi are incapable of reform or that they don't deserve it. My opinion, however, is that it will never happen because of the preponderance of factors against it.

I'm not sure Iran is a useful comparison. Until the revolution, Iran was extremely western facing, open and liberal economically even though the shah ruled with a heavy hand. The economy was more diversified, the role of women was different, the emphasis on education was different, the geography is different, on and on. Saudi has never had an open model. Their biggest problem is that the majority of the stakeholders in the country have nothing to lose. That doesn't lead to stability. This was different in Iran and this is one reason the strangle hold of the mullahs is slipping there.

Of course the geography of Saudi isn't the people's fault. That doesn't change anything, however. They've got little to work with. And the huge number of guest workers implies that they don't want to do the kinds of jobs that often provide unskilled workers access to the workplace. Come on, 35% non-nationals?

Comparison of the US christian right to saudi sharia re: treatment of women is a specious argument.

Skottie, Saturday, 6 March 2004 23:30 (twenty years ago) link

Change has to come from within. Talking about the oppression of women within Arabic societies sounds eiriely like talking about Western societies of only a hundred years ago. I heard yesterday that even in the UK, women couldn't open a bank account in their own name until about 30 years ago. Why did this change? Because Western women forced a change.

Change has to come from within. If it comes from without, it is seen as a different form of oppression, and will only make things worse.

The River Kate (kate), Sunday, 7 March 2004 13:58 (twenty years ago) link

Skottie yes it's nationalized insofar as it belongs to the government i.e. a monarchy!

The trick in gareth's question is what the fuck "national interest" means, and I agree w/kate that the current intl. definition of this as put forth by US of A needs a boot up its ass, from within (unless we want to suffer even more boots from without)

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Sunday, 7 March 2004 16:03 (twenty years ago) link

Yes indeed, TH, that's true. what does national interest mean?

probably a fully functioning, open, democratic saudi would be in the interest of most nations. But the kind of transition that would be necessary, would be marked by years of anarchy, violence, etc. So getting to openess is probably not in the "national interest" of those with a vested interest in the nation. Or something.

But is it in the National Velvet of the U.S.? That's the question!

Skottie, Sunday, 7 March 2004 16:10 (twenty years ago) link

four weeks pass...
Bandar unwilling to account for certain transfers

gabbneb (gabbneb), Sunday, 4 April 2004 19:32 (twenty years ago) link

The documents obtained by NEWSWEEK are "suspicious activity reports," or SARS

SARS: it's not just for diseases anymore.

I appreciate Dutton's implicit forthrightness in the article. "Look, I can't say anything anyone would believe, so will this do?"

Ned Raggett (Ned), Sunday, 4 April 2004 20:32 (twenty years ago) link

4. Understanding of a market economy

Why does any society need this?

Dadaismus (Dada), Monday, 5 April 2004 00:31 (twenty years ago) link

As to the original question in the thread title...I think "democratic reform" is too narrow a way to present the question. Democracy per se, unaccompanied by social and economic reforms -- the expansion of civil liberties and economic opportunity -- is no guarantee of anything. But are broad-based social, political and economic reforms in Saudi Arabia in the United States' interest? In the long term, absolutely. I think civil, social and economic liberalization anywhere is in the long-term interests of most of the population of the globe. The catch is that they often work against the short-term interest of small but powerful minorities -- ruling families or parties, multinational corporations, etc. -- who are able to either thwart the reforms outright or, in the process of the fighting the reforms, allow extremists on the other side (revolutionaries rather than reformers) to gain prominence. And then you get Iran. Or Cuba. Or the guillotine.

spittle (spittle), Monday, 5 April 2004 01:00 (twenty years ago) link

Ruling families? Multinational corporations? I thought we were talking about Saudi Arabia not the USA. And why mention Cuba? What relevance does that have to anything that matters in the world?

Dadaismus (Dada), Monday, 5 April 2004 01:03 (twenty years ago) link

Oh, right. I forgot that the ruling family in the US controls 95% of the country's GNP. My bad.

Skottie, Monday, 5 April 2004 02:41 (twenty years ago) link

Thesis: a fully functioning, open, democratic Saudi Arabia (with fiscal tranparency, an end to nepotism, government oil profits actually used for the PEOPLE of S.A. i.e. invested directly in public-service projects) would be bad for US corporations. Anybody want to argue with me?

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Monday, 5 April 2004 13:57 (twenty years ago) link

(haha I love that news report's "I'm shocked, SHOCKED" tone. how about the $300-$500M paid DIRECTLY by US oil companies into a Washington D.C. bank account solely controlled by the dictator of Equatorial Guinea? a man who claims on state radio that God has given him free licence to kill anyone he wants? a man who keeps half his country's half million people without access to clean water while he buys condos in the countryside? "If you're seeing a person limping on both legs, you know you're in Equatorial Guinea" - former US ambassador to EG) Is that a "scandal" or is that in America's "national interest," given the Cheney energy task-force goal of increasing oil imports from Africa?

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Monday, 5 April 2004 14:01 (twenty years ago) link

one month passes...
Saudi Arabia to produce documentary on its anti-terror efforts
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Saudi Arabia will produce a documentary film on its anti-terror efforts, Information Ministry officials said Thursday.
The documentary, titled The Dormant Cells, will be produced for $270,000 US and will include footage of security forces carrying out raids against terror suspects, the officials said.
The film will be produced with the help of experts in security, religion, education and media, the officials said.
They did not say when the documentary will be produced or aired.
The kingdom has been pursuing an aggressive campaign against suspected terrorists after several fatal bombings and shootings in the kingdom.
The effort has included a “hearts and minds” campaign aimed at persuading Saudis not to support extremism.

The Huckle-Buck (Horace Mann), Thursday, 6 May 2004 19:37 (nineteen years ago) link

"Directed by Michael Moore."

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 6 May 2004 19:41 (nineteen years ago) link

one month passes...
Very interesting article in the Washington Post from an academic/author who knows his subject, regarding the current state of society in Saudi Arabia and the various cross-currents at work. Well worth a read.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Sunday, 13 June 2004 16:43 (nineteen years ago) link

thirteen years pass...

seriously what the hell is going on pic.twitter.com/citVKdNviH

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) November 7, 2017

"Michael Corleone boldly consolidates power and pushes sweeping reforms on NYC Italian-American community"

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) November 7, 2017

ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 7 November 2017 16:17 (six years ago) link

four months pass...

lots of cringe-inducing parts to @NorahODonnell's MbS puff piece but where she claims "the crown prince represents the vast majority of the Saudi people" & they see him as "a kindred spirit" was the low point. Was there an election i missed? A poll? Anything to back this claim? pic.twitter.com/hxlNAZxsZG

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) March 19, 2018

ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 19 March 2018 14:42 (six years ago) link

increasingly believe that "national interest" is a categorical error

Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Monday, 19 March 2018 16:02 (six years ago) link

That 60 Minutes interview was fluff

curmudgeon, Monday, 19 March 2018 16:55 (six years ago) link

six months pass...

The US never indulged SA before. Trump is once again trampling on old norms. Obama’s arms sales had nothing to do with Yemen, and SA’s contributions to the @ClintonFdn are trivial. https://t.co/73lvv5SKDH

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) October 12, 2018

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 13 October 2018 16:01 (five years ago) link

Probably the same deep ties that the House of Saud had with the House of Obama, and every President's House before that. https://t.co/tF1UT5uIp5

— Dennis Perrin (@DennisThePerrin) October 20, 2018

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 22 October 2018 19:28 (five years ago) link

The deep US ties to the Saudi monarchy go back to the beginnings of Aramco (Arab-American Oil Company) in the 1930s. We've been scratching one another's backs ever since. If 9/11 wasn't enough to put substantial distance between us and the House of Saud, then the gangland style execution of Khashoggi surely won't disturb that cozy relationship.

A is for (Aimless), Monday, 22 October 2018 19:44 (five years ago) link

someone tell Meathead

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 22 October 2018 19:51 (five years ago) link


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