U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

Either America's 250 year anniversary will be celebrated by its first female President, or its first felon, insurrectionist, and open admirer of Adolf Hitler

Who will America choose? Apparently it's a coinflip!!

For future ILX historians you may be witnessing the final five days of Donald Trump's political career. If not, things have gone horribly wrong, and I congratulate you for inventing the internet again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypr18UmxOas

Final 5 days if he loses graciously and doesn't try to launch a coup.

Who is THAT jackwad, skipping like a dipshit?

A+ thread title, no notes

who is that jackwad amigo
why is he standing in a contractor bag poncho
with swastikas in his eyes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1F2KHTIUug

He’s finally pivoting to the center

Trump on Liz Cheney: “Let's put her with a rifle standing there with 9 barrels shooting at her. Let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face." pic.twitter.com/ajy2wpysAU

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) November 1, 2024

This is obvious to everyone with a brain, but I’ll say it anyway: that is a fucking insane thing for a viable candidate for anything in the United States to gleefully say in public.

who is that jackwad amigo
why is he standing in a contractor bag poncho
with swastikas in his eyes

bodacious Proud Boys
such as your friend will never be welcome here

absolutely a despicable thing to say.

his supporters will say that this is just a version of, "if lynne cheney loves war so much, maybe she should fight it instead of sending others." so they will say this is an anti-war message.

he always leaves himself these little squirrel holes to get out of accountability.

liz cheney, sorry

Buttload of Faith: the 2016 Presidential Primary Thread (Pt 2)

first use of 'garbage country' on ilx, 11 December 2015

Little did we know

garbage country? what is this, the billboard top 100?!?!?

i don't like liz cheney but I certainly think it's bad for to publicly suggest she be shot to death in public. Trump on the other hand...

i love that cnn.com now puts all it's interesting news behind a paywall

She should take him to court over it. That’s a direct threat.

Getting shot at by a supporter really broke whatever there was left of his brain.

She should take him to court over it. That’s a direct threat.

Hunter Thompson used to tell a story about how during one of his drunken college "lectures", he said into a hot mic, "George Bush [senior] ought to be stomped to death, and I'll join in," and the Secret Service was at his front door the next morning.

Good Morning!

https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/10/1200/675/biden_chicken_bite.jpg?ve=1&tl=1

Biden like a trash dog eating chicken bones out the dumpster

I’m sorry, but I just burst out laughing at that

A+ thread title, no notes

― Marten Broadcloak, mild-mannered GOP congressman (Raymond Cummings)

He’s still got it

My family had a little black cat who was the sweetest thing ever 99.9% of the time but once dug a turkey carcass out of what we thought was a well-secured trash bin and when we tried to take it away from her, found her inner sabretoothed tiger.

props to table and jaymc, I got stuck at the first line last thread

the Cheney thing is insane but i actually think he is sincerely trying to do a "if this war-hawk found herself in a warzone" bit. still horrifyingly direct, and eye-popping from a rich-kid draft-dodger, and of course still likely to inspire his heavily armed, insane and conspiratorial supporters to attempt murder of a political rival. but for once the latter seems almost incidental out of sheer negligence.

I agree with you. On the other hand he can go fuck himself.

Are we still really at a point where Trump deserves generosity of interpretation? I don't think so.

'All hell has broken loose': Inside Elon Musk's high-stakes pro-Trump door-knocking effort

Nine Republican operatives and canvassers connected to the Elon Musk-backed America PAC told NBC News that they’re worried the high-profile grassroots operation on behalf of Donald Trump’s presidential bid may hamper his chances in states decided by slim margins.

America PAC has been tasked with much of the pro-Trump canvassing operation as his campaign focuses its efforts on a more limited effort targeting so-called low-propensity voters. In turn, the Musk-backed organization is going door to door in all of the major swing states to help turn out Trump supporters and have them fill out surveys about their voting intentions.

But the people who spoke to NBC News, many of whom have years of experience in GOP field operations, said the operation may not be the well-oiled machine many in the party might hope it is, especially considering how much money is behind the effort.

In particular, they raised concerns about canvassers’ submitting an inordinate amount of suspect data. That data, some of which NBC News has reviewed, includes entries submitted far from the home or while canvassers are logged into Wi-Fi networks — telltale signs that a door was not knocked on, sources said. In addition, a video explaining how to “spoof” one’s location while submitting data drew attention in Nevada and Arizona, raising further concerns.

“I know it’s been flagged for America PAC that this has been transpiring,” an operative formerly on the effort said.

As some of that data spilled into public view last month, an operative close to the effort said: “All hell has broken loose” inside the PAC.

...

Door-to-door canvassing, a major component of what is known as the “ground game,” can make a difference in elections that are determined by 1 percentage point or less. With this election shaping up as one in which many and potentially all of the seven major swing states could be decided by that tight margin, the Musk-backed effort could be at the front of the line for plaudits should he win — or topping the list of reasons he lost.

Those who spoke with NBC News ranged from on-the-ground canvassers to mid-level managers to senior operatives close to the PAC. They were granted anonymity to offer candid assessments and provide information without imperiling their professional prospects.

“There are enough bodies on the ground that there could still be, I think, a modicum of success,” the operative close to the effort said. “Maybe not quite the resounding success that Elon Musk was hoping he was investing in, but I do think that you can do a lot over” the final sprint.

That's a long piece but a fun read. Hire scammers, get scammed!

"the president of the united states once tried to take a bite out of my leg"

that baby now has an interesting fact to use in icebreakers and 2 truths and a lie for the rest of their life

The baby was really giddy!

biden giving that child an unbeatable "two truths and a lie" answer for the rest of their life https://t.co/uwLVr0YjhN

— icky! (@ickyburd) October 31, 2024

Great minds?

not even trying to be generous, that's just how it first landed to my ears. of course I am also a notorious Wiggum truther so ymmv. Alfred otm, to be clear.

they hired the people who used AllAdvantage in the early 2000s and installed their own app to move the mouse every 15 minutes so it looked like they were actively browsing.

xxxposts

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boss_key

used to love the horrible fake reports that would pop up on Pete Rose Baseball when you used the boss key, designed by someone who had never worked in an office before

not even trying to be generous, that's just how it first landed to my ears. of course I am also a notorious Wiggum truther so ymmv. Alfred otm, to be clear.

― the last visible dot (Doctor Casino), Friday, November 1, 2024 10:54 AM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

how come they never ask the candidates about viking sleep, that would help me an undecided voter

Getting shot at by a supporter really broke whatever there was left of his brain.

― Charlie Hair (C. Grisso/McCain), Friday, November 1, 2024 8:49 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

Kamala trolling him about his rallies during the debate really feels like the inflection point to me

the Cheney thing is insane but i actually think he is sincerely trying to do a "if this war-hawk found herself in a warzone" bit. still horrifyingly direct, and eye-popping from a rich-kid draft-dodger, and of course still likely to inspire his heavily armed, insane and conspiratorial supporters to attempt murder of a political rival. but for once the latter seems almost incidental out of sheer negligence.

― the last visible dot (Doctor Casino), Friday, November 1, 2024 9:35 AM (thirty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think you're right but this is the guy who has very recently fantasized about using the military against his political enemies and while in office deployed the National Guard to rough up protestors and also took FEMA money to build migrant camps and deliberately tried to get Americans in blue states killed from Covid, never in American history has anyone ever deserved the benefit of the doubt less

what if there's a piece of shrapnel that made it into his head undetected and if he just turns his head a certain way in the next 4 days, he's a turnip

never in American history has anyone ever deserved the benefit of the doubt less

This is too rich to digest, considering you've given DJT the benefit of the doubt exactly the way Doctor Casino did many, many times over the years.

re: benefit of the doubt

I swear to God the final Wall Street Journal editorial making case for Trump includes this line.

“Mr Trump was too undisciplined, and his attention span too short, to stay on message much less stage a coup.”

Too erratic to coup! Trump 2024!

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) November 1, 2024

I like your stories, I love your gun
Shooting out truck tires sounds like loads and loads of fun
But in my room, wish you were dead
You bawl like the baby in Eraserhead

I'm too erratic to coup, I'm too erratic to coup

that WSJ editorial is truly unhinged but also a good lesson for all of us to keep in mind: for every seething, divorced MAGA-hat-in-a-diner, there's also some chode reading the WSJ, performing respectability with an oily grin, perfectly willing to fling burning shit into his neighbor's backyard, only to respond walter sobchak-style when confronted, "i'm calmer 'n you are."

Ah, but what about the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021? Mr. Trump’s attempt to overturn the election was appalling, and for many Americans is disqualifying for a second term. We thought he shouldn’t win the nomination again.

But Democrats helped to revive his fortunes with their unprecedented prosecutions and other excesses. Democrats made Trump II possible as much as GOP primary voters. If Mr. Trump wins, it will be a comeback for the ages, and testament to his resilience and ability to speak for Americans who feel unrepresented.

checkmate, liberals!

What’s the point of being President if you can’t even take care of your crackhead boy?

this is the best thing biden’s done since dropping out

Amy Carter is still my favourite wayward Presidential offspring. She spent a night with the Butthole Surfers

Democrats doing well in 2022 (with Dobbs fresh, no Trump on the ballot and with Biden still seeming like he didn't need to be in a home) doesn't really mean much about 2024.

'Don't be the party that is thought to have taken things away from your potential voters' isn't a left/right issue or unique to COVID or social welfare - ie what people remember of Biden and student loans is payments restarting. Talking about how Republicans/the Supreme Court blocked more cancellations just doesn't seem to be effective. Programs that expired under Biden get owned by Biden and the Democrats, regardless of the circumstances of how they were initiated or what Biden may have done to cushion the blow (like Obamacare subsidies - healthcare is still ridiculously expensive on the ACA for anything approaching a decent plan, no one feels grateful that they can scratch to afford a plan with a $5000 deductible before it's useful).

'Make it universal and permanent' doesn't really have much to do with Biden or COVID relief generally IMO - it's a larger argument about how all programs (and the 'Democratic agenda' if such a thing exists) should be structured. If we'd gotten a public option in 2009 (or lol single-payer) lots of people don't get thrown off Medicaid (which, as above, then demands you explain to people who lost it how it's actually Republicans' fault).

permanent and generous programs are obviously good. i do think temporary programs in the context of a pandemic are defensible and setting the expiry date is hard ex ante. like, no way trump wasn’t gonna let them expire before november 2020. so then do you have them go all the way to jan 2025? that definitely would’ve been better electorally the way things worked out. but that would’ve made the programs more expensive, and senate dems compromised on a sooner expiry date with more generous payments. (and of course they didn’t know a democrat would win in 2020)

as far as the electoral consequences go, i’m agnostic. i don’t think it’s the kind of thing that can be deduced from first principles and haven’t seen evidence either showing it was important or that it wasn’t

I still hope there is a hell for Joe Lieberman blocking the public option. Worst fucking Democratic VP pick in the modern era, too

every other country did temporary programs during covid and many expired without fanfare.

the difference is those other countries generally have much more significant welfare states than the usa to begin with

Haha yeah I was about to say

with the post i linked, i want to emphasise the part that gets into the flaws with relying on aggregate economic measures and explains how things can be or feel worse for a lot of individuals even though the aggregate measures look ok.

I am not a fan of the hunter pardon

It’s not egregiously corrupt like Bill Clinton’s pardon of Mark Rich, which still makes me shake my head in disbelief

xps the headline argument is proposing a fairly plausible explanation for why people feel worse (though it doesn't need to be the only factor, and it's an explanation that has been proposed by many others) but the focus on reconciling the apparent disconnect between the aggregate measures & the economic well-being data is the really interesting part of the piece

I’m in favor of punishment for gun charges, categorically. I’m aware this is now controversial among most dems who have internalized heller

also almost every other country's incumbents have crashed in elections held over the last 12 months and Trudeau has Biden-esque approval ratings

Is "internalizing Heller" required for not being convinced that prison is called for if you smoke a joint and fill out a 4473?

no one needs a handgun

did he mark “I just smoked a joint” on his paperwork?

Gun owners are pieces of shit, I’m totally with you on that

Poilievre is to Trump as Blair was to Bush, Jr. You’re in for a hell of a shitstorm

He wasn't convicted of "not needing a handgun" nor does his conviction strike a blow against handgun ownership. Unlike Joe Biden and Kamala Harris I am not a fan of putting people in cages for doing drugs!

if you go back and read what people were saying in 2020 when they were passing the pandemic programs, the argument wasn’t centrists saying “let’s pass a generous program that expires in a couple years” and the left arguing “no let’s do a permanent expansion of the welfare state.” it was taken as given that the programs would be temporary and the argument was all about making them more generous

there were also other debates about administration that don’t track to permanent/temporary, like whether benefits should be administered more through unemployment insurance and cash transfers (as in the us and canada) or through employers (ie paying firms not to lay off workers) which is what most european countries did. the fact that european welfare states act as stronger automatic stabilizers (kick in when incomes drop) is part of why those particular choices were made

but it’s a discursive sleight of hand to try argue ex post that they should’ve been permanent all along, and to point to that as a failure because they expired during the subsequent democratic president’s term. if you want to argue that the us should have a more generous welfare state you’ll hear no disagreement from me. it’s just neither here nor there in this particular debate. the original arp and bbb plans had a lot more welfare state stuff in them before they got cut down. what you really want to argue is that they should’ve prioritized longer horizons over the other things that made it into those bills

with the post i linked, i want to emphasise the part that gets into the flaws with relying on aggregate economic measures and explains how things can be or feel worse for a lot of individuals even though the aggregate measures look ok.

― ufo, Monday, 2 December 2024 12:58 AM (twenty-eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

people on both sides of this argument use individual level data that tracks workers over time. it’s not like everyone else is using aggregate data and nathan is using individual level data. in fact nathan switches halfway through his post, he starts out using individual data to talk about churn and volatility in 2020-21, then he switches to making arguments based on aggregates (interest rates, inflation) and doesn’t show any individual data on outcomes related to pandemic program expiration. many people have looked at this using individual level data over the full period 2020-2024. here’s a recent post that ends up with a more pessimistic view of the biden labor market

This is THE analysis of wages/income under Biden-Powell

TLDR: growth has been... historically weak (this is not normative -- just the numbers)

File under: blog posts that could be papers (and BPEA or someone should really conscript Zach to turn it into a paper) https://t.co/uyBVaf4S0P pic.twitter.com/KBiVJ8Rj1J

— Basil Halperin (@BasilHalperin) November 12, 2024

that also makes the same point about the pandemic stimulus expiring leading to incomes going backwards, but yes, the broad point i wanted to get across was that biden's most left-wing domestic agenda ever doesn't mean anything if a lot of people still end up going backwards, and it was even more foolish for the dems to convince themselves that actually everything was great.

but it’s a discursive sleight of hand to try argue ex post that they should’ve been permanent all along, and to point to that as a failure because they expired during the subsequent democratic president’s term.

i don't really see it as biden's fault in particular (other than he likely should have tried to push manchin more but i really don't know how possible that would have been) but it is something he was going to get the blame for regardless (a major flaw of the us system is how the president will get blamed for congress's failures) because most voters are not going to draw that sort of distinction (and the ones who are are already voting dem) and the dems had no real answer to that, their message was that biden's economy was great!

We have more theories and tools to understand things at a number of levels than ever (than just the broad political, which is the only level I am ever interested in), with more people educated to read, comprehend, and make policy on that stuff.

And yet Donald Trump still wins the presidency. Twice.

heads up y'all: Garbage Day is finally over. the Garbage Years have begun again.

The Hunter Biden pardon _and_ the consultants on Twitter justifying the pardon are a perfect illustration of the current state of the Democratic Party.

I'm confused. Id think the consultants would be horrified.

Hunter: Totally legal and totally cool

i'm curious how many people are prosecuted a year for not admitting you're an addict on the application for a hand gun

the important part is that Biden co-authored the Crime
Bill that had allowed non-violent drug users to suffer in the PIC for decades, in some cases. yet his special little boy gets a pardon. imho, Biden should pardon them all, or accept that his special little boy will have to spend some time in the very system that he has supported for his entire life.

Biden should pardon them all

otm

or accept that his special little boy will have to spend some time in the very system that he has supported for his entire life.

On the a very special episode of the West Wing President Bartlett decides that his daughter must die to save him from hypocrisy

"Without aggravating factors like use in a crime, multiple purchases, or buying a weapon as a straw purchaser, people are almost never brought to trial on felony charges solely for how they filled out a gun form. Those who were late paying their taxes because of serious addictions, but paid them back subsequently with interest and penalties, are typically given non-criminal resolutions. It is clear that Hunter was treated differently."

'good evening. tonight on Spot the Difference, we interview two us men: one was brought to trial on felony charges solely for how he filled out his gun form, and the other was charged criminally for tax evasion in the face of his serious addictions, despite having paid what was owed with interest. we believe we can SPOT THE DIFFERENCE-- can you?'
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/1ece/live/74f2e7b0-b090-11ef-93a6-9fd2d3586a96.jpg.webp

Hunter looks more addled than his dad there.

Keyes, I know you jest, but perhaps demanding more integrity from our elected leaders is a good thing, not something to make fun of— call me crazy.

my conservative dad was having like a minor internal meltdown at the hunter news last night, i could tell. therefore it’s good

yeah this is one of those news items that is going to make most people shrug but completely enrage the Fox News audience

as sharing is caring, enragement is engagement

non of the fulminating against this pardon from republicans will make a whit of difference when it comes time for trump to pardon literally everyone he knows including himself, but the feelings that wash over us all when it happens will be quite something

He pardoned the father-in-law whom he just nominated to serve as ambassador to France.

If only Charlie Guiteau could come back to life to fight him for it

"Biden is a hypocrite"/"free all the prisoners"/"the ruling class operates under different rules from its subjects" are not incompatible thoughts w/ "lol he pardoned his crackhead boy" IMO

I find it really hard to care about this, yeah it's an abuse of power but so was investigating him like this in the first place. I mean he's got to be the only person in American history to have his hog shots displayed during a Congressional hearing. for sure he's a scumbag but the President-elect right now is a criminal rapist who is appointing a nonstop parade of sexpests to his Cabinet, if anything this is kinda helpful for telling you which so-called "centrist" pundits are not worth listening to at all anymore

One of the rare cases where the famous person gets convicted and sentenced in a way a regular person wouldn't. Drug addicts don’t get charged with lying about gun-purchasing forms about their addictions, I don't think.

Right now we have a rapey felon on his way back to power, someone who egregiously pardoned dozens of criminal cronies, and another world leader defying the ICJ on genocide with the help of other world leaders who have pledged not to detain him if he visits their countries. At some point American leaders decided not to hold one another to account for criminality and insurrection, and those most invested in getting out of jail free are the ones hollering loudest about this pardon.

Funny, that…

Will someone please step up and start a December thread before I am forced to think of a cute thread title everyone hates?

November Spawned a Monster

i been reading about garage day for a month and yet have managed to avoid cleaning the fucking garage. frisson, so real

Garbage Days Revisited

US Politics, December 2024: The Worst Second Coming Ever