Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

As requested. WmC do you want to close the other thread?

Yair Wallach, who is an Israeli academic at SOAS very much not sympathetic to Likud/Bibi, is a good source on twitter atm, but like all the content out there atm, proceed at your own risk.

He retweeted this video of a young woman from one of the kibbutzes (kibbutzim?) that was attacked earlier:

By far the most powerful Israeli response I have seen.

This 19 year old girl survived the horrific massacre in Kibbutz Be’eri.

This is her message to her fellow Israelis and to the world.

Watch the whole thing.pic.twitter.com/qSPKZX4pzg

— Benzi Sanders (@BenzionSanders) October 14, 2023

Thanks, gyac.

Chotiner and Sari Bashi, the program director at Human Rights Watch:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-humanitarian-catastrophe-in-gaza

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1W43C8xhh5E

Sam & Emma interviewing Omar Shakir, Israel & Palestine Director at HRW this morning

looks like David Dayen in there too

Yes, but trying to ask a question of the guest when Sam is in interview mode is a tall order

Why is our political class so invested in suppressing criticism of the apartheid regime? The answer is obvious. Western states support Israel in order to maintain their power at a crucial crossroads of world trade. Challenging that power is impermissible, because any attempt to hold Israel accountable for its crimes is – by definition – an attempt to hold our own states accountable for their involvement in them. Not only are our rulers prepared to let Israel level Gaza; they will even provide it with diplomatic cover and military supplies.

https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/impending-genocide

As noted, I know numerous IRL people with Israeli flag avatars saying that they stand with Israel no matter what.

Plus I know IlXorz and others who almost uniformly condemn Israel as a brutal apartheid state that continues to use "but the Holocaust" as a laminated carte blanche for every atrocity the IDF wishes to commit. (There is a bit of a strawman in there but that's another topic for another time.)

I have met exactly zero people in between. I know it is not about me and/or my feelz. And I don't love "both sides"ing US politics either. The discourse is polarized and will remain so.

Absolutely no-one has talked about this situation at work, there's been no conversation about it at all, maybe people don't talk about it at work in the US either I don't know.

No offence Tom but that was a post I was hoping could be left behind in the old thread

xp, thank you for that gyac, incredibly moving. I also recommend the NYTimes Daily from today on the situation on the ground in gaza from the perspective of people caught in it, difficult listening:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/podcasts/the-daily/gaza-israel.html

(the ep labeled "Voices from Gaza")

I’m just going to say that I am not in-between on this issue, but that should be obvious by now.

xp I know people are all about bearing witness but I find this stuff incredibly upsetting.

I don’t think it was mentioned but Humza Yousuf who is Scotland’s first minister has family trapped in Gaza. I am linking this video as I find this content extremely upsetting.

Bernard's mother and family went out of their way to tell me that they would be praying for my family in Gaza. We hugged, we cried, and we promised to re-dedicate ourselves to peace and to be unequivocal; no innocent man, woman, or child should pay the price of another's actions. https://t.co/Vv1fz9gXqJ

— Humza Yousaf (@HumzaYousaf) October 13, 2023

Also, for context on the Kibbutz Be'eri post and those less familiar with the situation of the past 15-20 years (and again disclaimer I am hardly an expert myself): from Ariel Sharon onward, Israeli policy has been increasingly tilted toward a phony sort of "disengagement." In my mind, it traces back to the building of the West Bank wall although that could be simplistic take. But Netanyahu has turbo-charged this idea, basically that Israel could just kind of ignore the territories (at least other than soldiers stationed in the West Bank) rather than engage in any more ongoing negotiations, that the West Bank could continue to develop economically even without full agency or freedom, and that Gaza would be the kind of counterexample (i.e. life would be worse than in the West Bank) as long as Hamas was there. That terrorism could simply be prevented or minimized through "security," the settlements in the West Bank could continue quietly, and most Israelis would just live their lives and not worry.

Netanyahu is also notoriously corrupt and venal, and he has maintained power through a coalition with right-wing settler and religious parties, giving both more power (which also angers the more secular wings of Israeli politics as Israel gradually takes on additional trappings of theocracy, though it is hardly a full theocracy).

Netanyahu also favors his voters. The kibbutzes near Gaza tend actually to be center-liberal to left. They are not Netanyahu voters. There is a strong sense that Netanyahu "neglected" these areas as the girl expressed in her video, and that is also reflected in the sense that he neglected security near the Gaza border. I genuinely do not know whether Netanyahu "allowed" the attack but I seriously doubt it for reasons I stated in the prior thread. I think this was more hubris and stupidity and myopia.

"I don’t think it was mentioned but Humza Yousuf who is Scotland’s first minister has family trapped in Gaza. I am linking this video as I find this content extremely upsetting."

Mentioned this in the last Israel thread.

You can count on one hand the number of European leaders who have talked about Palestinians as human beings

And they’re all backpedaling now given protests and public pushback.

The President of the University of Pennsylvania has released her 3rd or 4th public statement apologizing for letting a Palestinian writers conference take place last month

The President of the University of Pennsylvania has released her 3rd or 4th public statement apologizing for letting a Palestinian writers conference take place last month

people are so fucking gross

Public statements issued by university presidents are generally tailored to a narrow and specific segment of the public, mainly anyone with influence over university revenues or endowments. They are paid to know how to read that room.

Aimless, we know. No offense.

Well, yeah. When you've got Dick Wolf threatening your donations because you let Palestinians into a building named after him...

a name like Dick Wolf must never be besmirched

Always guarantee the BBC will always be fucked.

The BBC admits that it misled the public about pro-Palestinian demonstrations in the UK. pic.twitter.com/oi4nVf5DN7

— Lowkey (@Lowkey0nline) October 16, 2023

i think about this poem by Palestinian poet Najwan Darwish all the time pic.twitter.com/jv5WOOjobb

— هستی hasti (@youarehasti) October 16, 2023

xp - That retraction was also poorly phrased and could be misleading.

This is @GhassanAbuSitt1, a surgeon who is currently saving the lives of Palestinians in a hospital in Gaza. He's just reported that counter terrorism police have showed up at his house in the UK and harrased his family.pic.twitter.com/GOvl5aQLHG https://t.co/bugmmZPAMM

— Saul Staniforth (@SaulStaniforth) October 16, 2023

That retraction was also poorly phrased and could be misleading.

glad i'm not the only one who thought this

OTM

I know this is old news, but it still blows my mind that the range of Acceptable Opinions on Israel is narrower in the West than it is in Israel.

That Darwish poem is great. Notable that Armenians were just cleansed from Artsakh by Azerbaijan and absolutely no-one in the west cared.

Yup. Armenia could be invaded in the next few weeks btw.

xxp two words: Social Media.

Nuanced discussions are often lacking in the echo chambers of social media and the 24 hour news cycle. The only place where I've seen nuanced discussions about the topic are on platforms that favor more nuanced discussion, such as ILX and (yes, believe it or not) Reddit.

I do wonder if the "outrage economy" of clickbait extremism online and the 24 hours news cycle will finally hit a limit of societal acceptability in western democracies, but I'm not holding my breath, they still make $$$

"We called a pro-palestinian march pro-Hamas. We accept that this was a thing that we said". WTF.

Now here's the weather.

True, I understand in theory how misinformation supposedly works. But I'm finding it extremely challenging to trust some of the news sources being cited and finding myself turning to reddit, and other news sources that I don't normally consult trying to see what areas of dispute exist over even just the factual reporting.

xp

Interestingly enough, a private forum I participate in is completely avoiding talking about this, and honestly it might be for the best.

The ukpolitics sub is overall fanatically pro-occupation and pro-genocide, and they are gradually losing their shit as they observe the public becoming turned off by this stance. Also they are usually witheringly critical of the Tories but have suddenly become staunchly supportive of Sunak and Braverman.

Are you taking about Reddit or something

I have met exactly zero people in between.

To the extent I've talked to people about this, almost everybody I know IRL is "in between" the two positions you describe.

Reddit is a paragon of “nuanced discussion” now. We are truly fucked.

Actually was just thinking about this specific issue in non-Reddit terms which still definitely apply to Reddit. How this conflict is a godsend for the extreme right (and whatever apologists they may have claiming to be “leftist”). Because it so thoroughly divides actual leftists from liberals steeped in realpolitik or whatever they’re on.

a name like Dick Wolf must never be besmirched

There's nothing decent to besmirch. The Law & Order "franchise" is a formulaic, sensationalist pile of shit. All 1,316 episodes of it.

Also pretty depressing how my social media feed was blissfully Ben Shapiro-free until various people decided his thick-headed, one-dimensional take on the Middle East was the voice of reason this past week.

xxp two words: Social Media.

Nuanced discussions are often lacking in the echo chambers of social media and the 24 hour news cycle. The only place where I've seen nuanced discussions about the topic are on platforms that favor more nuanced discussion, such as 4chan and (yes, believe it or not) Stormfront.

We get it. You don't like Reddit.

I don’t like social media illiterates upholding a literal right wing extremist-captured disinformation service as their go-to for balanced discussion.

lol what

Lol hey i wasnt even posting here viborg

Yes, the famously extremist platform, reddit

Extremely milquetoast maybe

From The Guardian:

"Explosions can be heard above Tel Aviv and the sound of warning sirens wailing across the city, Israel’s largest urban and economic metropolis.

In Jerusalem, explosions are also being heard, witnesses have told Reuters.

Israeli media is reporting that Iran has launched more than 100 missiles at Israel. It’s unclear whether missiles are hitting home or being intercepted in the sky above the cities. This is a rapidly unfolding, ongoing situation.

The Israeli military is now reporting that sirens are sounding across the country."

⚡️🚨 Footage from impacts on Tel Aviv

3000 years old native settler is panicking in the video in his native language pic.twitter.com/5wyJJTprnC

— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) October 1, 2024

Crowds in Gaza break out in ecstatic cheers watching Iranian missiles land on Israel. pic.twitter.com/uUkDxTOMBb

— red. (@redstreamnet) October 1, 2024

Is this how WWIII begins, or just more of the same?

Do I still have to pay rent today though?

Weve been in wwiii for the last two years

Paid it yesterday :-( xp

Does Israel now come clean about its nukes? And does Germany now come clean about its submarines that will fire them?

— Elvis Buñuelo (@Mr_Considerate) October 1, 2024

here's hoping this is a largely performative volley by Iran to avenge Nasrallah's death, as they said they would do

That is what I think is likely. And yet history is full of brutally destructive wars that nobody wanted and yet somehow happened.

Breaking: CNN’s @jimsciutto confirms Israel is using human shields, strategically positioning its command and control center in densely populated civilian areas pic.twitter.com/ApaA1KArau

— Adam Johnson (@adamjohnsonCHI) October 1, 2024

I'll bet they have tunnels as well

To answer the question on everyone’s minds: No, Joe Biden does not have a doctorate in foreign affairs.

He’s just that fucking good.

— Andrew Bates (@AndrewJBates46) July 12, 2024

How does he do it folks?

Ok so we are having escalation...can we de-escalate?

There was also a shooting.

"Now back to that shooting incident in the Tel Aviv area that was still unfolding as Iranian missiles began raining down on Israel less than 90 minutes ago.

Four people were killed and seven wounded in the shooting attack in the Jaffa neighborhood of Tel Aviv on Tuesday, Israeli police said in a statement, Reuters reports.

The police said there were two shooters and they had both been “neutralised”.

Law enforcement added that the situation was “under control”. The authorities previously called it a “suspected terror” shooting targeting Jewish residents."

I'm finding the kind of blase way US ILXors and others say foreign policy doesn't matter in US elections a bit unnerving.

“Foreign policy doesn’t matter” to a domestic American audience because for most people, this shit almost never gets covered in any accurate way and holds little to no salience. Its important as hell, but rarely addressed in ways that aren’t cheerleading for either an American effort or American proxy. Hell, Americans are in the Imperial Core, most of us here don’t know a goddamn thing and if my coworkers are any indication, just view the stuff as remote distraction that shows up in a newsfeed.

I think this idea was forged as CW in 1992 when George H.W. Bush got 37% of the vote in spite of having waged what was seen as the best war ever.

also if you only listen to sports talk radio 89.5 THE SPREAD, you maybe are not really hearing much foreign policy news

not hearing much on this thread either

Early signs are all military targets.

The next 24 hours will see journalists and politicians pretending Iran carried our indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas.

— Philip Proudfoot 🇱🇧🇵🇸 (@PhilipProudfoot) October 1, 2024

Heck, as a resident of Arlington Virginia I am a human shield for the US Military.

Oh yeah, you'll get it first

Multiple IRGC-affiliated Iranian outlets & Telegram channels report, "Iran has warned the US: if you target our refineries, we will set fire to the refineries and oil fields across the entire region, including those in Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain."

— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) October 1, 2024

I guess the U.S. has already started helping intercept Iranian rockets

Israel writing checks that its butt can't cash, expecting we'll come in to help

Well they ain’t wrong

...The invasion of 1982, which triggered the Second Lebanon War, was ordered by then-Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin. Overseen by Defense Minister Ariel Sharon, a former general, the incursion’s objective initially was to stop Palestinian attacks from Lebanon and to push back the Palestine Liberation Organization north of the Litani River.

But it snowballed into a more expansive operation to install a pro-Israel Maronite Christian government and Israeli forces remained in southern Lebanon for 18 years.

“Recall that Israel’s incursion in 1982 was also billed as a limited and localized incursion,” noted Lebanese commentator Michael Young. “But as Sharon understood, there will always be someone shooting at you from the next hill, so self-defense mandates that taking that hill …until they reached Beirut,” he added in a post on X.

Young suspected Israel would want more than just to eject Hezbollah from south of the Litani. “They will demand more,” he warned.

There are also signs that the underlying thinking driving the incursion, code-named Operation Northern Arrows, suggests much grander ambitions.

The “escalate to de-escalate” strategy risks being subsumed by greater Israeli ambitions and Hezbollah resistance, fears retired United States general, Joseph Votel, in a comment released to the media.

Votel worried that Hezbollah could pursue an attrition strategy “to draw Israel into a prolonged conflict that will undermine its government, economy, and global standing — buying time to recover from their recent setbacks and perhaps creating an opportunity for a strategic blow of their own.”

Really interesting thread on the various scenarios.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1841240358178500946.html

The very first engagement between the IDF and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has turned out to have been extremely deadly for Israeli forces. IDF has admitted to six soldiers being killed, five more injured.

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) October 2, 2024

Further blasts in Beirut just now..

there was a tweet upthread comparing current Israel to the final days of apartheid-era South Africa... multiple wars on multiple fronts (Angola, Namibia, etc.) the unrest in the townships (sorta like the West Bank & Gaza).. It's an interesting comparison but there are some key differences. South Africa at that time had few allies (ironically, the Israelis continued to sell them weapons when no one else would) whereas Israel has the backing of the good old U.S.A. and possibly some Sunni oil republics looking to hamper Iran's influence, it's honestly hard to tell. But they are starting to take on that same pariah status internationally, it'll be interesting to see how this pans out politically... though it looks like Bibi's approval ratings have been given a bump by all this bloodshed

Yeah I doubt history will repeat itself re: South Africa comparison. Its quite a different calculus going on.

1980s South Africa isn't very close analogy to 2024 Israel. They do compare, but only in the broad outlines. Mainly, worldwide sentiment has turned even more strongly against them and their generally favorable US reputation has huge cracks forming in it.

SO FUCKING DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT pic.twitter.com/CtKI8zTdyl

— Aaron Regunberg (@AaronRegunberg) October 3, 2024

Israel turning Hezbollah into the heroic defenders of the Lebanese nation. Good work there, morons!

Israeli used white phosphorus on civilian residences?

Not exactly the first time.

When I heard about the bombings last night and the medical center being targeted I thought it might have killed another Hezbollah leader. But have seen no reports today.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1snvj2z00003b6rsr6qydjn

Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib told CNN that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had agreed to a 21-day ceasefire just days before he was assassinated by Israel.

The temporary ceasefire was called for by US President Joe Biden, his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and other allies during last week’s UN General Assembly.

“He [Nasrallah] agreed, he agreed,” Habib told Christiane Amanpour in an interview aired on Wednesday.

“We agreed completely. Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire but consulting with Hezbollah. The [Lebanese House] Speaker Mr. Nabih Berri consulted with Hezbollah and we informed the Americans and the French what happened. And they told us that Mr. [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu also agreed on the statement that was issued by both presidents [Biden and Macron.]”

White House senior adviser Amos Hochstein was then set to go to Lebanon to negotiate the ceasefire, Habib continued.

“They told us that Mr. Netanyahu agreed on this and so we also got the agreement of Hezbollah on that and you know what happened since then,” Habib continued.

Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Friday in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital Beirut.

A day earlier, a joint statement issued by the United States, France, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Qatar called for a 21-day ceasefire, “to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and avoid further escalations across the border.”

In response to a question on the United States’ diminishing influence in the region, Habib said Washington was “always important in this regard.”

“I don’t think we have an alternative. We need the United States’ help. Whether we get it or not, we’re not sure yet, but [the] United States is very important, vital for the ceasefire to happen,” said Habib.

free FT piece on the destruction in Lebanon: https://www.ft.com/content/e646b893-e793-4053-81ba-50b6fded62e8?accessToken=zwAAAZJUAGIHkdPmRriT55NAU9OBulC2_e1i6A.MEYCIQCL1z52zAfcevht05dgCsUXZvMNvKCbIM3VcaYUWPslrgIhAONnawZEBCQ1ucwVOcl17hdHfrVjWHKgtTTALZpaaj-T&segmentId=e95a9ae7-622c-6235-5f87-51e412b47e97&shareType=enterprise&shareId=32e5084c-23fe-4bdd-b398-8651fad4dc16

Israel’s escalating bombardments of Lebanon over the past two weeks have left a mark across the landscape: an estimated 3,100 buildings in the country have been damaged or destroyed since September 20, according to satellite-based radar measurements provided to the FT.

The strikes during this period have killed at least 1,336 people and displaced more than 1mn from their homes, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. The death toll has already exceeded that of the 2006 war with Israel, making this the deadliest conflict in Lebanon for more than three decades.

BREAKING - a huge massacre:
Israel has just bombed a cafe in Tulkarem refugee camp (occupied West Bank) killing around 20 people so far.
It's Thursday night before the weekend & the cafe was packed.

— Tameem | تميم (@TameeOliveFern) October 3, 2024

"The strikes during this period have killed at least 1,336 people"

Read that Lebanon's goverment has been v slow at ascertaining numbers. There was heavy late night bombardments yesterday and less than ten were confirmed dead hours later.

All paramedics I think.

yeah I'm sure death count data is spotty right now. What's interesting (for lack of a better word) is that FT piece uses radar to measure the destruction of the physical environment, which is already vast after only two weeks of bombardment.

on that note, here is an opinion piece on the IDF's history of targeting civilian infrastructure: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/10/3/dahiyeh-doctrine-returns-to-dahiyeh

I'm also trying to make my way through this letter written by American medical volunteers in Gaza, but it's very upsetting: https://www.gazahealthcareletters.org/usa-letter-oct-2-2024

All paramedics I think.

― Humanitarian Pause (Tracer Hand), Thursday, October 3, 2024 5:24 PM (eighteen minutes ago)

they're being targeted:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/03/lebanese-healthcare-workers-fearful-as-growing-numbers-killed-in-strikes

Communicating directly with my friend in Lebanon at this moment, who apologized for the delay in her message to me because “our building almost fell down just now” and how without any warning they “evaporated a whole area”.

29 missiles registered in the recent Israeli airstrike on Dahieh in #Beirut, as revealed by spectrogram analysis since the start of the video. Similarities in sound and pattern suggest they are bunker buster bombs. #Lebanon https://t.co/H25gEFcADO pic.twitter.com/1cxS9cDCJD

— A. Baydoun (@weatherwar) October 3, 2024

omar what?? jesus that's distressing.

xyzzzz those are the ones near the airport I guess?

Assume so..

That’s really intense omar, wishing you both well