It’s the “skills gap”! Just can’t find qualified people willing to work for these wages! It is a mystery!Luna I’m far from an expert but my understanding is that public debt in the UK is just not something worth worrying about rn
― Tracer Hand, Friday, 23 December 2022 16:46 (one year ago) link
https://kotaku.com/victoria-3-communism-op-paradox-simulation-capitalism-1849832954
― 龜, Friday, 23 December 2022 17:10 (one year ago) link
it was 90 something percent of gdp and that's quite standard, according to the bloke on the radio.
the nurses want 19% which seems high but is probably coming on the back of years of underpaying and 14% inflation. government is arguing that a (much lower) payrise had already been agreed, but that was before they themselves tanked the economy.
― koogs, Friday, 23 December 2022 17:21 (one year ago) link
Yes and that pay recommendation came before this unprecedented inflation.pf the wage-price spiral is supposed be that higher pay settlements force companies to charge higher prices, because their labour costs have risen. The higher prices then encourage unions to demand higher wages. And so on.
― Tracer Hand, Friday, 23 December 2022 17:26 (one year ago) link
of course the gov are saying that the inflation will be taken into account next April, but that's months away and nurses are already using food banks.
if only the nurses could vote themselves a pay rise like the politicians do... (see also the cabinet expense claims that were just released)
― koogs, Friday, 23 December 2022 17:32 (one year ago) link
maybe they can do the thing that other poorer European countries do and sell noble titles to rich foreigners ...
― sarahell, Friday, 23 December 2022 18:00 (one year ago) link
needs a catchier name and someone important to organise it...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/sep/19/prince-charles-cash-for-honours-scandal-grows-with-fresh-allegations
― koogs, Friday, 23 December 2022 18:11 (one year ago) link
keep it in the british politics thread folks
― flopson, Friday, 23 December 2022 19:46 (one year ago) link
we invented capitalism so it's relevant
― your original display name is still visible (Left), Friday, 23 December 2022 20:35 (one year ago) link
prince-charles-cash-for-honours-scandal-grows-with-fresh-allegations
i'm FPing for this url
― flopson, Friday, 23 December 2022 20:41 (one year ago) link
A little something: https://pudding.cool/2022/12/yard-sale/
― nashwan, Friday, 23 December 2022 23:44 (one year ago) link
But, Tracer, paying nurses more wouldn't mean that any company would need to charge higher prices for anything, that I could see.
Ditto firefighters and other public servants.
I think I see that if a hamburger restaurant starts paying its waiters 20% more, then they need to charge more for burgers.
But I don't see how that applies to public service workers.
― the pinefox, Saturday, 24 December 2022 19:40 (one year ago) link
I think you’re right pinefox, and I think that the fears of a spiral, such as they are, are misplaced at best and bad faith at worst.
― Tracer Hand, Saturday, 24 December 2022 19:43 (one year ago) link
This tweet addresses a question that has puzzled me.
I am bemused by claims that we cannot afford 10% pay rises for public sector workers when we have inflation of 10%. Do the politicians saying this not realise that this means we also have an increase of near enough 10% in tax revenues, or more than enough to cover the cost?— Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) January 7, 2023
― the pinefox, Sunday, 8 January 2023 12:26 (one year ago) link
Yeah, I think inflation is generally good for government cash flows. It increases tax revenues, while interest expense on outstanding government debt stays constant.
― o. nate, Monday, 9 January 2023 15:25 (one year ago) link
I think Richard Murphy generally answers a lot of economic questions in an accessible way, if you can handle his insane volume of tweets and tendency to catastrophise.
He often explains things from a 'modern monetary theory' perspective, which I find interesting, though don't think it's come up on this thread.
― salsa shark, Monday, 9 January 2023 19:06 (one year ago) link
i didn't know people were still into modern monetary theory. it kind of went away the last couple years
― flopson, Monday, 9 January 2023 19:36 (one year ago) link
the charitable take on MMT is that it's vacuous, the uncharitable take is that it is a scam
― flopson, Monday, 9 January 2023 19:38 (one year ago) link
flopson, any thoughts on biden's ability to mint a trillion dollar platinum coin
― 龜, Monday, 9 January 2023 19:51 (one year ago) link
the coin thing is funny b/c if he minted the coin and they dropped it and couldn't find it and a janitor picked it up and brought it to the bank the president would probably say "the coin isn't real do not give the janitor a trillion dollars" thus giving the lie to the whole coin thing potentially
― G. D’Arcy Cheesewright (silby), Monday, 9 January 2023 20:02 (one year ago) link
the trillion dollar coin, as well as premium bonds and other related ideas (perpetual consols, premium bonds, having the fed "donate" treasuries) are all risky. there's the short-term risk of freaking the market out, and also the long-term risk of undermining fed-treasury independence and the delicate balancing act of norms around these things. but they're all infinitely better than defaulting. if it weren't for the debt ceiling there would be no reason to do them, but one of them will be done before default is ever allowed to happen. i don't think the coin would be the one they pick though, it just sounds too silly. my guess is they would do perpetual consols (bonds with no maturity) because they have existed in the past (the last ones were issued in the 1930s) and are extremely boring sounding
― flopson, Friday, 13 January 2023 04:50 (one year ago) link
But is the government also a consumer and to what extent do market prices affect its purchasing power?
― youn, Friday, 13 January 2023 15:54 (one year ago) link
For example, what if Lockheed Martin claims inflation? I suppose this might be unlikely.
― youn, Friday, 13 January 2023 15:56 (one year ago) link
What about foreign debt and trade imbalances during inflation? Does that work out okay? Could someone explain this to me in a way I can remember?
― youn, Friday, 13 January 2023 16:01 (one year ago) link
But is the government also a consumer and to what extent do market prices affect its purchasing power?― youn, Friday, January 13, 2023 10:54 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink
― youn, Friday, January 13, 2023 10:54 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink
inflation is generally good for the government. prices go up which increases the cost of expenditures, but remember that governments get tax money for every sale in the economy. so tax revenues . typically these two channels cancel each other out and the effect is neutral. inflation is good for the government finances of debtor countries because it erodes the real value of nominally denominated debt
don't really follow your other 2 questions, sorry
― flopson, Sunday, 15 January 2023 02:29 (one year ago) link
Lockheed Martin could charge a lot more for weapons where the US government spends a lot of its budget? Or is this kind of pricing stable? But when people say the dollar is strong what does that mean in the context of inflation of currency and what effect does it have in different possible combinations for inflation in the US and other countries?
― youn, Sunday, 15 January 2023 08:57 (one year ago) link
Strong dollar is usually a reference to exchange rates. There is some connection between exchange rates and inflation but they are separate.
― o. nate, Tuesday, 17 January 2023 16:13 (one year ago) link
I wonder about exchange rates and the USD as a standard in the context of an increasingly global economy and foreign debt carried by nations. Isn't this why an international tax rate matters?
― youn, Wednesday, 18 January 2023 00:41 (one year ago) link
cf. the currency for interest on debt
― youn, Wednesday, 18 January 2023 00:42 (one year ago) link
seems to me you worry about a lot of things
― 龜, Wednesday, 18 January 2023 00:49 (one year ago) link
turtle: what you are saying sounds like I shouldn't worry about a lot of things (because they are beyond me? I would probably agree/)
Before inflation took hold perhaps, I thought the dollar was strong, but inflation means it is weak at least in the US, but then central banks changed their interest rates perhaps in response to the Federal Reserve and not necessarily dependent upon whether or not inflation was happening internally, perhaps it was. Recent discussion around federal debt limit increases in the US and also memories of 2008 make me wonder whether the currency system as a system is too fragile.
― youn, Thursday, 19 January 2023 22:45 (one year ago) link
(I was hoping to buy lots of nice jumpers from Margaret Howell)
― youn, Thursday, 19 January 2023 22:46 (one year ago) link
fiat currency seems much less fragile than specie, the 19th century was full of currency crunches!
― G. D’Arcy Cheesewright (silby), Thursday, 19 January 2023 22:57 (one year ago) link
the whole silicon valley bank thing unfolding right now is a pretty good opportunity to learn in real-time about the perils of fractional reserve banking!
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 20:02 (one year ago) link
WSJ says it's the second biggest bank collapse in history, "rattling investors"
Good, let 'em rattle
― Andy the Grasshopper, Friday, 10 March 2023 20:07 (one year ago) link
However, this is my current favorite WSJ headline:
Led Zeppelin’s Jimmy Page Battles Neighbor Robbie Williams Over a Basement Man Cave
― Andy the Grasshopper, Friday, 10 March 2023 20:08 (one year ago) link
that battle's been going on for years iirc
i assume there's been a new development
― satori enabler (Noodle Vague), Friday, 10 March 2023 20:31 (one year ago) link
a thread in which ilx interprets jimmy page's battle with neighbor robbie williams over a basement man cave, sometimes linen by linen
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 20:33 (one year ago) link
given that i have a hard time understanding how bond markets work i’m not sure why i think i would be able to understand this but it’s annoying to me that i don’t
The real unrecognized problem of the financial system is the mistaken belief that “atomic settlement” can somehow make things safer and more efficient without generating different types of risks. But instant “real time” settlement is a bit of a false friend. Why? Because it does… https://t.co/0opJbL3MzU— Izabella Kaminska (@izakaminska) March 18, 2023
― Tracer Hand, Saturday, 18 March 2023 23:18 (one year ago) link
I tried reading that and I don’t understand it either. It seems to be about some kind of government mandated clearing system between large banks. These kinds of topics are notoriously technical and dry, though no doubt important, especially if you’re a bank regulator or run a bank.
― o. nate, Sunday, 19 March 2023 02:32 (one year ago) link
I will take that bet.You buy 1 BTC.I will send $1M USD.This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k.The term is 90 days.All we need is a mutually agreed custodian who will still be there to settle this in the event of digital dollar devaluation.If someone knows how to do this… https://t.co/tcuBNd679T pic.twitter.com/6Aav9KeJpe— Balaji (@balajis) March 17, 2023
lmfao
― flopson, Sunday, 19 March 2023 19:20 (one year ago) link
a magical story. this was me this weekend talking to my wife about it.
SO MEDLOCK WAS JUST MAKING A SHITPOST ABOUT A SELF-HEDGING BET BUT BALAJI HAS BEEN DOOMPOSTING ABOUT HYPERINFLATION FOR MONTHS SO HE TOOK HIM UP AT WILDLY UNFAVORABLE TERMS BUT MEDLOCK DIDNT HAVE A BITCOIN ON HAND SO THIS PRO POKER PLAYER CAME IN TO BANKROLL THE BET AND pic.twitter.com/7DrLBIKzgp— Colin Fraser (@colin_fraser) March 18, 2023
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 20 March 2023 03:56 (one year ago) link
Every time I refresh the FT front page, it's another billion. https://t.co/SOE0hcGd2t— Daniela Gabor (@DanielaGabor) March 19, 2023
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 20 March 2023 07:21 (one year ago) link
given that i have a hard time understanding how bond markets work i’m not sure why i think i would be able to understand this but it’s annoying to me that i don’t― Tracer Hand, Saturday, March 18, 2023 7:18 PM (two days ago)
― Tracer Hand, Saturday, March 18, 2023 7:18 PM (two days ago)
for a variety of reasons the plumbing behind finance means that most trades settle two business days after the order is executed. think of it as buying on credit, or a check that takes a couple of days to clear
as a result, a lot can happen during those two days, which i don't pretend to understand on an aggregate, net-net basis like the tweet author apparently does but which i can easily picture in an individual basis (securities not being delivered, money not being delivered due to the buyer having gone full tilt, etc.)
― 龜, Monday, 20 March 2023 14:44 (one year ago) link
love commodities
JPMORGAN CHASE OWNED BAGS OF MATERIAL KEPT IN A DUTCH WAREHOUSE THAT WERE SUPPOSED TO CONTAIN NICKEL BUT TURNED OUT TO BE FULL OF STONES - WSJ— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 20, 2023
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 20 March 2023 20:31 (one year ago) link
the goldman aluminum warehouses scam was good, just forklifts shuffling the same pallet of aluminum between two warehouses so goldman could make millions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/business/a-shuffle-of-aluminum-but-to-banks-pure-gold.html
jpmorgan's electricity scam was really good too: https://dealbreaker.com/2013/07/electricity-market-rules-were-not-a-worthy-opponent-for-jpmorgans-brainpower
― 龜, Monday, 20 March 2023 21:01 (one year ago) link
just forklifts shuffling the same pallet of aluminum between two warehouses so goldman could make millions.
back in the 1980s (before Gramm-Rudman did a lot to fix loopholes in the US tax code), there was a very lucrative Investment Tax Credit that was used for many illegitimate purposes. The CPA I worked for for a few years in my home town had had a client back then who was a doctor. I'll call him Doctor Franz, and he had a buddy who owned some land, and we'll call him Rancher Hans. And there was a flock of sheep that were on Rancher Hans' land that Rancher Hans and Doctor Franz would sell back and forth to each other every other year to claim this tax credit.
― sarahell, Friday, 24 March 2023 19:03 (one year ago) link
LOL. I once had a boss who brought eggs from his hens to work and, shall we say, gently encouraged employees to buy a few at a nominal price, so he could claim a tax break for his farm as a working farm.
― o. nate, Friday, 24 March 2023 19:47 (one year ago) link
I know this probably makes me an unserious person but I find it endlessly amusing that the AT1 bondholders got zeroed in this CS debacle.
― o. nate, Friday, 24 March 2023 20:27 (one year ago) link
what's great is that every effort was made to tell the bondholders they could get zero'd when they bought the bonds, and they still made a surprised pikachu face when they did in fact get zero'd
― 龜, Friday, 24 March 2023 21:59 (one year ago) link