what the fuck is happening in Russia?

I don't want to fuck about and find out.

Proceeds not to get it.

It's a weird rant. And whatever stereotypes you may hold in your head about Russia (or the USSR though I don't think that matters) it really doesn't matter.

Weird post imo. Nothing anyone posts here "matters", strange criticism to make.

I mean to say that going on about USSR as something to be defended by "ilx communists" or Russian stereotypes isn't a way to think about this conflict.

If you want to, that is.

Suggesting that current Russian policy mirrors the worst stereotypes that have been thrust at Russia through the ages does not have to be some sort of skeleton key to understanding the conflict, it can just be a person of Russian origin expressing dismay at what their country has turned into. In, you know, the Russia thread.

Given what else is in that post I wouldn't say it's "just" exasperation at domestic politics, which is a feeling I know about.

Well no, it's also exasperation at foreign policy.

Proceeds not to get it.
Proceeds not to get what? Russia's legitimate security concerns, I assume?

"I get that" it's just something people say in the middle of an argument with someone. Oh, I get what you are saying. Just a thing to clear their throats before carrying on like they would do.

how do you think these particular Russians you have in mind are feeling? and are they a significanty body among the conscripts or simply "some Russians" not asked to go fight?

― more difficult than I look (Aimless)

i think they love their children too

I know there's some die hard communists on here I've had some run-ins with, and other people who are probably more level-headed than I am, and a few of either type who are probably more forgiving of the Soviet Union or whose horror or distaste is appropriately offset by the none-too-innocent perfidy of American and Western empire, and I get that, but it is so fucking depressing to see all this playing out and have one's worst fears come true, the most cynical expectations fulfilled.

― borrowed Ostalgia for the unremembered 80s (MoominTrollin)

i don't really understand most of your post, but by "communists" you're thinking, like, soviet apologists, right? what folks on the left would call "tankies"? the communists i know are _not_ favorably disposed towards russia or particularly forgiving of the soviet union's atrocities.

I'm dense, so thank you for stating explicitly what I now assume xyz's point was.

xxps i don't particularly feel like explaining multiple nuances in russian/ukrainian relationship (partially because moomintrollin knows a lot more historic context and would do a much better job at explaining it) but no, it's only similar to vietnam drafting when you trivialise it to something simplistic - and russian/ukrainian relationship is anything but.

to be clear: i would love to see this idiotic mobilisation to serve as a trigger for civil unrest, i'm just perhaps cynical enough to not expect that it will actually work that way or expect that it will result in more russians supporting ukraine. it won't.

i've learned a lot over the past few years about revolutionary politics in post-democratic states

people who speak russian tell me that "what is to be done?" in the original russian is a call to revolution

it's hard for me to see it as anything but a shrug

of course, the people united will never be defeated

of course, despots throughout history have known this

putin and the oligarchs have spent the past decades isolating and marginalizing any voices of dissent

of course few people will actually be happy with nicho - with putin's disastrous policies

it doesn't seem remotely plausible that revolution will make things better

it hasn't worked that way in any of the other revolutions and attempted revolutions we've seen in our lifetimes

it is fairly clear at this point what kind of person one has to be to succeed in russian politics

equally clear (even, one must imagine, to putin, even if he will never admit it publicly) is what the russian state is and is not capable of doing

putin wants conscripts to fight in the ukraine? that is fine. actually going to the front, to die for his stupid little war, that is out of the question... does that mean then that one must fight against putin?

if the russian people value their individual survival more than the abstract idea of "liberation" i can hardly blame them

whether that be the "liberation" of the ukraine or their own "liberation" from putin

What hurts is that people appear to be pretty mutable, their behavior and lifestyle and even beliefs can change quite quickly due to any number of inputs. This can be positive but also quite frightening depending on the example used (1930s Germany!)

So, going back to the "stereotypes" talk, there is no such thing as some essential "Russian" mentality. Or a "Chinese" mentality. Or an "American" mentality. But it entirely possible for a mentality to be required to succeed in a given social or political context, giving rise to cadres who happen to possess or cultivate or affect such a mentality. When in Rome, do as the Romans do. This is where we are in contemporary Russia - an inexact but analogous mirror image of the late Soviet period, suffused with cynicism and incompetence, sure, but also paradoxically competitive careerism (you gotta hustle to be a regional industry manager or a member of the Politburo, after all).

Some of those old stereotypes and attitudes - "they pretend to pay us, and we pretend we're working" - sound like they're equally applicable today. I recently saw a theory re: the earlier Russian offensive in the Donbas, compared to the recent and somewhat more successful Ukrainian drive in Kharkiv Oblast, to the effect of: "the people in charge were making small advances over a wide area in order to be able to report constant weekly territorial gains." And so we return to that old saw about the Soviet factory, asked to meet a quota of two tons of nails, producing one two-ton nail. Technically, the plan was fulfilled.

Regarding the "run-ins with communists" paragraph, that was just my attempt to answer a question that no one had yet asked in response, something like "well sure, but what about negative American stereotypes that America then goes and confirms, over and over?" I'm not looking to accuse any communists, real or imagined on my part, of being "soft" on the Soviet Union or Russia currently and as I've tried to explain above with my reference to the history of David Glantz, I don't believe that the USSR was a 100% evil monolith that carelessly ground its citizens into the dust. The point I was working on is that in my eyes, while the search for nuance in what the Russian leadership is doing and how it is steering the war is commendable, it also appears to be increasingly futile, and produces less accurate results than simple crude cynicism. Especially cynicism fueled by decades of stereotypes that this leadership appears to be bent on resurrecting, one after the other. Which is depressing.

"Some of those old stereotypes and attitudes - "they pretend to pay us, and we pretend we're working""

Sounds like a typical ilxor tbh.

Another revealing video. Scene inside a mustering station in Russia where an officer yells at angry, resentful men who have been mobilized.
“That’s it- playtime’s over. You’re soldiers now!”
pic.twitter.com/oTfomvgsUf

— Patrick Reevell (@Reevellp) September 23, 2022

That podium has seen some shit.

That's one motivated looking military force

I'm not sure what to make of the mobilization. Or rather, the form the mobilization appears to have taken, and what the immediate purpose.

On the face of it, it seems haphazard (consequence of procrastinated then rushed decision?)

I'd thought would solve short term rotation issues but rather than going specifically for people with recent service, which would make some sense - it seems haphazard and random, if we're to belive these vids are representative.

And many in Moscow and St Petersburg too not just the periphery.

And more generally about mobilization not just this specific form, what effect this has on demographics. Russia currently has manpower shortage with ever shrinking working age population

The Russian economists Maxim Mironov (@mironov_fm) and Oleg @itskhoki (of IE University and UCLA respectively) have published an important thread estimating the likely demographic impacts of mobilisation on Russia. A translation follows. ⬇️ /1

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) September 25, 2022

Seems to be "troops" from the separatist regions who are behind a lot of the more egregious behaviour carried out by the Russian forces - which makes sense, civil war and all that. I saw an interview with a young guy from one of the areas recaptured by the Ukrainians and he said the actual Russians weren't that bad but that the separatists were "crazy".

Sounds like a typical ilxor tbh.

― xyzzzz__

i'm pretty open about it tbh, my entire existence is spent in this state of shell-shocked brezhnevian malaise.

Come for what the fuck is happening in Russia?, stay for what the fuck is happening on what the fuck is happening in Russia?.

when the supply chain started breaking down i gave up. when i was a kid i was told that the reason america was better than the soviet union was the strength of our supply chain. the soviets, on the other hand, suffered random supply chains, random gluts. you couldn't plan for anything, it was more, well, what's going to be available this week?

i stopped being able to make plans a long time ago. the leaders i guess are still making noises and putting out their usual propaganda. there is no point in listening. they are talking to please themselves. what am i going to learn? why are the flags flying at half-mast this week? the dangers of enemies, domestic and foreign? half of the time i am one of the "enemies" they are warning against.

or perhaps they will tell me how much they care about trans people, this government that has for three years failed to listen to my pleas to call me by my legal name. every time i tell someone they are outraged and they assure me they will correct the problem immediately. i never hear from them again. my name is not corrected.

i have a strong work ethic. i like to work. i believe in work. what are they paying me for? what am i accomplishing with my work?

they are tremendously supportive of me at my workplace. tremendously understanding of the mental illness i suffer. every few months or so, perhaps when the sky is on fire or perhaps when there appears to be a serious possibility that we will all die in a nuclear attack, i will have a breakdown and i will go on short-term disability and they will teach me how to better deal with My Problems. this is the only thing that can be done.

My Problems are the only ones i have the power to deal with. therefore it follows, does it not, that the best thing is to act as if the only problems that exist are My Problems. if there is a problem and it is outside of my ability, what good does it do me to dwell on it?

so i go back to my job in healthcare, where every day for the past several years i see people dying of preventable diseases, and what do they do? they call me a hero! a hero, like batman, or like stakhanov. see what good an ordinary man can do?

oh, or woman, of course. an ordinary woman. or an ordinary non-binary thing. person. thing. of course it does not matter what gender you are. you must understand this is all very new and it is very difficult for us.

the russians, sting tells me, love their children too. did my parents love me? very much. very much. did they hurt me, neglect and abuse me? yes. very much.

america loves me. america _cares_ about me.

they are tremendously supportive of me at my workplace. tremendously understanding of the mental illness i suffer. every few months or so, perhaps when the sky is on fire or perhaps when there appears to be a serious possibility that we will all die in a nuclear attack

you have to understand, the problem wasn't _really_ that i was afraid that we were all going to die, it was that my marriage was falling apart. that was what i learned in my treatment program. certainly nobody except for me and my ex can be held accountable for this. our workplaces were both very supportive of us during covid. they didn't want us to go into the office and spread diseases. we could work from home. they were responsible, they cared about us, and a lot of people were not as fortunate as us.

so we were responsible too. we spent all that time just with the two of us. we didn't talk to anybody else, because other people, you know, other people were not so responsible. we didn't want to be responsible for someone else's death due to our own selfish negligence. was it stressful, just the two of us together, nobody else, nobody to support us except for _the internet_? yes, certainly, but there is no reason for me to begrudge my employer and the wiser minds in my government their _concern for the general welfare_. obviously that had to be of the utmost importance.

but of course at the same time one couldn't... one couldn't hold people who were selfish and negligent responsible for that. is it _fair_ that sociopaths should reap the rewards while the rest of us bore the costs? doesn't matter. it doesn't matter what is fair or just, what matters what is _practical_, and the most _practical_ thing is to allow rich sociopaths to profit while we suffer.

the most practical thing for my ex and i was to sell our house, which we loved, which we hoped to grow old in together, and move into separate squalid rooms neither of us can quite afford on our own. people tell me that i will be happy for this, one day, that it opens so many more opportunities for me. like many russian people, i am used to people telling me things that i do not believe, and accepting their words without complaint.

Jeez the end of that xpost ChrisO thread of the two economists:

Losses will be comparable to those of DNR troops - British intelligence estimates that as of June (3.5 months into the war) they left 55% of their original strength. It can be assumed that in the next 6 months the losses among the Russian mobilised may amount to 60-70%. 31/

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) September 25, 2022

And how such decimation will contribute to

... Russia currently has manpower shortage with ever shrinking working age population

― anvil, Sunday, September 25, 2022

As an old WASP male American Deep South hepcat hubcap, I know some of where you're coming from, MoominT, re the frustration, rage, nausea, and struggle with default kneejerk cynicism, which can be a kind of survival mechanism and deadly for others, also plain worthless---I know it better looking over the shoulders of some Black commentators---glimpsing what they and you and Russians (and others) in Russia know more of---glad that some of the latter are making it across the border, so far---

That podium has seen some shit.

― borrowed Ostalgia for the unremembered 80s (MoominTrollin), Sunday, September 25, 2022 11:02 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

That's one motivated looking military force

― I've seen things you people wouldn't belieeeeeeve!!! (Matt #2), Sunday, September 25, 2022 11:15 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Not going to link it here, but there's a video of one of those officers getting capped by a mobilized man in Úst-Ilimsk earlier today.

(not those specific officers, but same role different city)

A young man shot and wounded the chief recruitment officer at a military enlistment station in Russia’s Irkutsk region on Monday, local authorities said, as thousands of fighting-aged men continued to flee the country to escape being summoned to duty in President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.

The alleged shooter in the attack on the recruitment chief, at a military commissariat in Ust-Ilimsk, a small town in Irkutsk, apparently was distraught that his close friend had been called for duty despite having no prior military service.

Putin, announcing the partial mobilization, had said only experienced servicemen would be summoned. “We are talking about partial mobilization,” the president said in a national address. “In other words, only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up.”

But there have been a torrent of reports all across Russia, including from ardent supporters of the war, of people being summoned for duty despite having no prior military service, or being too old or otherwise physically incapable of going to war.

And now---well, search with "Kremlin admits mistakes" (re mobilization)

BREAKING - Russian FSB security service says it has detained Japanese Consul in Vladivostok - RIA - Reuters News

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) September 26, 2022

twitter pundits are weird, so what is chris o saying, that if "russian civil society" doesn't collectively decide to hold mass protests against putin they're the ones responsible for any conscripts who die in the ukraine, because "russian civil society" has a "choice"?

god as if my monday wasn't shitty enough already

Unrelated to The War, but interesting:

MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin grants Russian citizenship to former US security contractor Edward Snowden.

— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) September 26, 2022

So they can draft him!

I don't usually read much Twitter punditry, but was struck by this study he quoted, posted upthread:

Losses will be comparable to those of DNR troops - British intelligence estimates that as of June (3.5 months into the war) they left 55% of their original strength. It can be assumed that in the next 6 months the losses among the Russian mobilised may amount to 60-70%.

look i know it's rude of me to say but i feel like chelsea manning has come out of things a lot better than snowden did, and i can think of one decision manning made that may have helped

also the curse of three letter acronyms strikes again, i can only read that as "do not resuscitate" troops, i can imagine that losses among soldiers who have DNR orders on file would be pretty severe

I thought it was the Department of Natural Resources, who are more accustomed to citing hunters for going over their bag limits or doing life-jacket checks on recreational watercraft.

i can think of one decision manning made that may have helped

She repudiated Glenn Greenwald, but that's probably not what you were thinking of.

now i'm wondering what the correlation between repudiating glenn greenwald and taking estrogen looks like, i mean it's a small sample size but i, too, repudiate glenn greenwald

seriously edward snowden not transitioning is a fucking tragic blow to humanity, the guy looks like abi thorn pre-transition and look how _she's_ turning out

look i know it's rude of me to say but i feel like chelsea manning has come out of things a lot better than snowden did

this seems uncontroversial

.. anyway, what the fuck is happening in RUSSIA

A few hundred (mainly female) protesters gathered in the eastern Siberian city of Yakutsk earlier today to protest mobilisation

While performing the Yakut Osuokhai folk dance they shouted "no to war" and "no to [Yakut] genocide", local media report https://t.co/DZlvHcXRAI pic.twitter.com/MBiukhr8Pl

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) September 25, 2022

They chose an interesting staging ground for the protest; the statue in the background is of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platon_Oyunsky

A Yakut communist, playwright, translator, statesman, and eventual victim of the Great Purge, he was posthumously rehabilitated in the 1955; a statue of him was erected in 2003.

I kept searching trying to figure out who it was but the results kept coming up with Lenin, whose statue has graced the main square in Yakutsk since 1967. Despite being described as Yakutsk's "cultural heritage," however, its future remains uncertain. Critics point out that plans for it to be refurbished this year have run into budgetary difficulties: not all of the funds necessary have been allocated.

Newly mobilized Russians are told what they need to take to the war. Spoiler - pads and tampons.
(English subtitles) pic.twitter.com/CumYqqpuit

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 26, 2022

also in the bizarro russian news: “a petition to provide vegan and vegetarian military rations has gathered over 25000 signatures”

'ask your family to send tourniquets!'

geez that inspires confidence

Looks like enlistment/mobilization centers being set up at the Georgian border at the main Verkhnii crossing. If true, looks like effecticvely like a partial border closing

Questions about the capacity of Georgia (and to lesser extent Armenia) to absorb anti-mobilization Russians (also maybe between March exiters and September exiters)

welp, the votes are in, everybody wants to join the Russian Federation - that's democracy in action