"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

I think if he has Florida he can probably not worry about Texas or a prolonged wait for Pennsylvania.

I'm confident Biden will win the election but not Florida.

Biden up 290-0, Trump says "he's not mathematically eliminated"

aw 😎❤️ omar

My fantasy is having Texas and Florida in the bag on Tuesday night so that Pennsylvania doesn't even matter.

fine by me

i kinda want Trump to lose so big that he actually screams at his followers for being pussies and they still thank him for it

lol just went to look at recent AZ polls on RCP and all but one of them were from right wing pollsters

obv not saying this is happening

but a blue Texas in the future is pretty much an extinction level event for the GOP right?

it's interesting because up until 1980, Texas was predominately a blue state, and hasn't been since, but in today's polarized elections when you can typically throw states like CA, NY, and TX into respective columns before polls close, it's not a great sign.

that being said, I firmly feel like the next candidate they drag out could simply be barely right of Marco Rubio and suddenly win Texas easily.

though I feel weird using colors pre-2000 cos red and blue didn't exist to describe parties before then (which is nuts, cos it's one of those things you feel like has been around foreer)

Sabato's Crystal Ball feels that Dems have a pretty solid shot at 50 Senate seats, and that the other 3, including both in GA, are toss-ups.

Guessing both GA seats will go to a run-off, if Biden's the clear winner I would bet both of my dollars that both go Republican.

we really only technically need 50 with Kamala being the tie-breaker, but I'd much rather have 51 or 52 so we don't have to worry about cumstains like Manchin.

boy will it be frustrating though if it takes us a while to know if we have the Senate or not, given its importance.

it's interesting because up until 1980, Texas was predominately a blue state

To be fair, up until 1980, Southern politicians were still figuring out which side was the more racist one, and aligning themselves accordingly

yeah Dixiecrats et al

everybody get in your bucket, post-election (assuming biden wins):

(a/i): (see bucket H below), the möbius strip connects here

a) fuck the republicans, and their full embrace of trump for eternity. and for the years that they all pushed things forward in his direction, too. never let them forget (this is my current bucket). something snapped. there is no "normal" to go back to.

• political sector: DSA, local-focused with a few national-level champions (the crew, etc), mask-wearing proponents, abolish/replace wholesale rather than "reform", half-measures and tepid responses can no longer be acceptable, given the realities

• political sector: democrat, votes most of the time, national issues, wears a mask when everyone else is too, reform, incremental, has generally positive feelings about the clintons

• political sector: ._., back to the barren wastelands of their interior minds, there are many questions which have many answers and lead to so many more questions. can a closed system contain an exponentially-growing series of questions and answers? doesn't know who malthus is either. can't find a mask

• political sector: claire mccaskill, "center-left", hears the word "centrist" and doesn't flinch, older people, compromise, across the aisle, a good idea should start out with a preemptive concession by the majority party, puts the mask on when the rules say you have to, chuck todd, gerald ford, RBG's friendship with Scalia

f) listen, we'll see how biden does, but trump left him the best economy there ever has been. biden will probably make washington name their football team the "socialists", but i'm praying for this country

• political sector: about 20% of the entire country, many people in your neighborhood, anti-mask, anti-covid-19, hates when race comes up, several people in your family, stupid fucks, run of the mill republican politician

• political sector: about 5% of the entire country, never sure about anything, has at various times claimed that everyone would die from covid-19 and that the whole thing was a hoax, lacks an internal editor, thinks masks are part of a conspiracy, louie gohmert, climate skeptics

• about 15-20% of the entire country. yearns to fight a giant race war. feels very violent toward mask-wearers. tom cotton, josh hawley. creepy as fuck

yeah if Ossoff doesn’t somehow manage 50% then I fully expect both seats to stay in the GOP column. Shame, bc as much as I’d enjoy watching Trump lose GA I’d rather have at least one of those seats

would be so ironic if ACB caught the rona, wasn't aware of it spread it around a bit and succumbed to it during the lame duck.
speshly if she'd been really generous to Mitch, Kavanagh and a few others with it.
But would that mean they suffered enough?

Guessing both GA seats will go to a run-off, if Biden's the clear winner I would bet both of my dollars that both go Republican.

― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Saturday, October 31, 2020 12:07 PM (fifteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

agreed

xpost She had it already, iirc.

can't she get a relapse?

Sumter Co., FL (The Villages) update: we're up to 81,262 early votes cast out of 105,612 registered voters - a 77% turnout rate, the highest in the state. https://t.co/7hJkcln5TP

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 31, 2020

I love her

pic.twitter.com/XLA6rnLCqN

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) October 31, 2020

Google search trends over the last 7 days (color in each state determined by the topic with most searches)

Different parts of the country care about different things. pic.twitter.com/xSCrXncaq6

— Jens Nordvig (@jnordvig) October 31, 2020

tbf, hunter biden's lovechild does live in my state.

that's bad news for the SC senate race. the rest of those red states are the deeeeeeep red ones, the ones that vote for trump even in a landslide biden victory. so if people in SC are actually caring about hunter biden, that sucks.

on the other hand, maybe that's a measure of how bad lindsey graham sucks. even with a constituency that spends their spare time conducting oppo-research, he's in a tight race

but a blue Texas in the future is pretty much an extinction level event for the GOP right?

so this is what Shor said in that NYMag interview. Is this the only scenario where Texas goes blue? is he right about the rest? does this mean I should be even more nervous about Tuesday? no idea.

If education-based polarization reaches a point where Texas becomes the tipping-point state, then that means that Michigan and Minnesota and Maine and Wisconsin are all gone.

Lots of delicious quotes here in here

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-trump-republicans-elections/2020/10/30/9eacb5b6-1aaf-11eb-aeec-b93bcc29a01b_story.html

This is maddening.

Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming. https://t.co/VODOZrCoUF

— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) October 31, 2020

but a blue Texas in the future is pretty much an extinction level event for the GOP right?

Not necessarily -- the effects that are pushing AZ, TX, GA, NC to being swing states (migration to growing cities in places with warm weather) are pushing the cold states with post-peak urban centers in the opposite direction. Ohio is already not a swing state anymore. There's a timeline in which PA, MI, WI, MN all look like Ohio does now and Ohio looks like Indiana does now and Illinois looks like Minnesota does now, and that's a world where Republicans are nationally competitive without Texas I think?

xp I agree with the Shor quote if I'm interpreting it correctly

Wow:

Obama going after Trump in MI: “He’s still worrying about his inauguration crowd being smaller than mine...He’s still talking about that. Does he have nothing better to worry about? Did no one come to his birthday party when he was a kid? Was he traumatized? What’s with crowds?”

— Yamiche Alcindor (@Yamiche) October 31, 2020

If those Harris county votes get tossed there will be fucking riots

Enten on the polls and the state of play

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/31/politics/polling-trump-biden-analysis/index.html

The argument against counting the curbside votes needs to be "your jurisdiction told you this was okay and let you do it, so you voted in good faith. But your jurisdiction was wrong to do so, so fuck you your vote is invalid."

That's very different from individual voters making a stupid mistake and having their ballot spoiled as a result.

When your county says "this is how to vote," and you believe them, that's on the county, not on you.

If the GOP wants to go there (and clearly they do), I won't be surprised, but it's a different fight from "HURR DURR I THOUGHT I WAS VOTING 4 BIDEN BUT ACCIDENTALLY FILLED IN THE KANYE BUBBKE OOPS."

Because there were probably also some Trumpoids in the curbside line.

It should be apparent to everyone by now that one of the best ways to suppress votes is to create a host of arbitrary rules which must be followed without the slightest deviation or the vote will be invalidated, while making it much harder for a particular set of voters to follow those rules. Then you claim that "the rules are the same for everybody and we're just impartially enforcing the law". Jim Crow worked along similar lines.

MJ Stern drives me crazy because he is basically on the right side of everything but his dial never goes below "THIS IS IT, THE END OF DEMOCRACY," and it makes me crazy if I'm too attentive to his stuff, there is a range

It should be apparent to everyone by now that one of the best ways to suppress votes is to create a host of arbitrary rules which must be followed without the slightest deviation or the vote will be invalidated, while making it much harder for a particular set of voters to follow those rules.

Or just selectively enforcing those rules. Can't throw out votes if nobody sues to have them thrown out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzxKomdvs_8
"Remove 45" with De La Soul · Styles P · Talib Kweli · Pharoah Monch · Mysonne · Chuck D · Posdnuos

So apparently the Biden/Harris Austin rally was canceled and the campaign bus was almost run off the road.

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/10/biden-harris-campaign-cancelled-austin-tx

not sure about the bus being run off the road - doesn't look like it from the video unless there's another video out there

The lifted truck behind the bus in the video I saw almost ran another car off the road but not the bus.

I assume that Harris wasn’t on the bus or the Secret Service would have made life unpleasant for some F-150 owners.

True to form the lifted truck didn’t seem to be doing it on purpose just driving like a moron.

An interesting thread:

Next week is going to be horrible, for multiple reasons. One reason I haven't seen mentioned much in the media has come up a lot in my discussions with Wall Street types: the personal desperation of the Trumpies if he loses 1/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

Trump himself, of course, faces likely financial ruin from his unpayable debts and perhaps criminal charges if he loses the shield of office. Quite a few officials will probably also face criminal charges for abuse of office, both political and financial 2/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

But there's another, more mundane issue facing many lower-level Trump minions: they may not get the traditional soft landing available to former officials, in which you move into a cushy lobbying or industry job 3/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

Normally service in government is a plus on your resume; serving this government, not so much. For one thing, everyone knows that the Trumpies aren't the A team, or even the B team; they're people who had nothing better to do 4/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

What about K Street? The usual connections won't count for much: Democrats control the House. If they take the Senate too, they will play hardball, giving McConnell very little chance to shape legislation — and anyway, it's obvious that MM personally despises Trump and co 5/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

So if you are, say, Trump's Deputy Assistant Secretary for small endangered mammals, who's going to offer you a job? You pretty much burned your bridges by joining this administration, and that has jammed the revolving door. 6/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

And if you're tempted to mock my mixed metaphor, all I can say is that if Biden wins, the upper hand will be on the other foot 7/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

What all this means is that we're going to be looking at some very desperate people, many willing to do extreme things to pull this out 8/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

Seems bad

This is state terrorism. The @GrahamPolice & @AlamanceNC are violently attacking children in North Carolina, rounding up & arresting Democratic poll watchers, & beating & arresting voters at polling places.

— Mark Hughes (@markhughesfilms) October 31, 2020

they are going to fucking steal this election

Here’s how the Harris county sitch is gonna play out:
1. courts vote to throw out the ballots on Monday
2. angered Texans pack the polls on Tuesday
3. Supreme Court rules that the original votes need to be counted, spoiling untold ballots
4. Texas legislature claims “chaos” and tried to send their own electors

tbf this is the first election of our young country, we'll get it figured out eventually

Trump in PA explicitly saying he’s counting on the Supreme Court to throw the election

I guess more likely is they don’t appeal to the Supreme Court if/when they lose on Monday