People that you've never heard of, people that are in the dark shadows -- US Politics September 2020

Democrats do not suddenly love George Conway; it's just about what is useful now in an electoral context.

Having left the Lincoln Project, Conway is now caping for Amy Coney Barrett's appointment.

xpost lol All the Trump supporters are going to wake up like the brainwashed members of the Thuggee cult in Temple of Doom.

I find endless sunshine somewhat unnerving

I appreciated this line:

_"Proud Boy sounds like what your dad calls you when you win the Pinewood Derby."_

turns out three men talking at the same time is my least favorite sound

— caroline doyle (@cd0yl3) September 30, 2020

idk why the question mark is there, sorry

http://i.imgur.com/sKCA3UN.png

if you loved three guys yelling at each other in english, you'll love three guys yelling at each other in english while three women yell at each other in japanese

People in Japan who watched it on NHK (our public broadcaster) had to watch three men shout over each other while three interpreters interpreted over each other simultaneously soooo yes but not really?🤔 pic.twitter.com/1gItayw55f https://t.co/vWV8Top38J

— 伊吹早織 Saori Ibuki (@ciaolivia) September 30, 2020

There's a Pee Pee one floating around as well.

Pee pee isn't the one that floats iirc

Release the pee tape!

xxxp omg that sounds insane

Bernie on the debate, and supporting Biden - clip from Kimmel last night

We are about to enter October 2020... and the last time Joe Biden trailed Donald Trump was... never. Biden has led in an average of polls dating back since the first poll of this matchup for 2020 was taken in early 2017.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2020

And this is what is so bizarre about this. You have folks dismissing loads of data clearly suggesting something. The data is screaming out to be listened to.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2020

What's with the parentheses?

His protective bubble

Gee, what could possibly have happened in 2016 that would cause people to not want to put faith in polls? I can't imagine.

Harry's still living in February 2017.

xpost Hillary Clinton got 3 million more votes than Trump?

this does seem like the inverse of 2016, when the polls were clear that Trump could still win while the public was like, "come on, he's clearly an unqualified asshole, people aren't gonna vote for him", now it looks like Trump is two full polling errors from making this even close and the public still assumes Trump will find a way to pull it out

pom: https://www.vox.com/2016/6/6/11860796/echo-explained-parentheses-twitter

xp totally otm, and iirc you know a thing or two about odds

Thanks, rob, but it was a faux naïve question on my part. I'm amazed that it's still a thing in 2020.

xpost you misspelled frogbs

Pomenitul, the parentheses started out as an antisemitic thing.

Some Jews and anti-antisemitic folks have coopted it in an ironic retaliatory "taking it back" manner

Or, what rob said

Xps, o ok

xp ha that thought did cross my mind right before hitting submit, but earlier today I learned my partner didn't know the term TERF, so...

by the way how does anyone think Trump will handle having his mic cut off next time? I don't see why they're even bothering having another debate.

Sorry guys, that was rather, um, recondite on my part.

Biden's team wants him to debate again, but I think he'd be better off cruising around on a No Malarkey whistlestop trip. Maybe on a train. Seriously.

I just don't see what there is to gain. Who are the upcoming moderators? Who cares? We know exactly how Trump will behave. And if they cut his mic he will storm over and use someone else's mic. Though I wonder if it would help him or hurt him to just storm out.

I guess it depends what his goals are.

Like Alfred said upthread, second and third debates are less important, so the optics are better if he agrees to a rematch with Orangina.

I know he can't exactly back out without looking bad, but why? As someone posted, it's like debating an air horn.

Speaking of whistle stop touring:

Fact: if you were to subtract all '16 votes from Westmoreland Co. (PA), Macomb (MI) and Waukesha (WI), Hillary Clinton would be president today.

This is some of the most valuable real estate on the political map, and Biden is hitting it in a way Clinton didn't. https://t.co/2ghQWog3WT

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 30, 2020

The secret Biden strategists probably won't share publicly: being seen in "forgotten" small towns actually helps you the most w/ suburban voters who haven't set foot in these places in years, but are impressed you did.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 30, 2020

It's just so weird to go through this pantomime of debates when everybody's reaction is ultimately just shut the fuck up.

These debate are like watching the shittiest sitcom ever, then demanding a Christmas special and movie.

And then going to see the movie in a virtually empty theatre in the middle of a pandemic, and sitting next to the only unoccupied seat, a guy eating his food loudly while talking on a cell phone without a mask.

I guess Trump's debate coaches were Chris Christie and Rowdy Rudy... how'd that work out?
I think he's be better off with Gilbert Gottfried and Alex Jones.

occupied seat, sorry, angry/beer.

they should just cut his mic entirely and have Gilbert Godfried improvise lines.

It's a dimwitted, prehistoric reaction. 'Biden stutters and he doesn't roar as much as his opponent, which makes him look weak, so in order to prove his strength he must never back down from a challenge!' See also:

bear say hi to me

Next debate Biden should take out his phone and start taking video of Trump whenever he has the floor.

WORLDSTAR!!

LOOOOL

Next debate Biden should take out his phone and start taking video of blasting "WAP" over Trump whenever he has the floor.

Fixed.

It's approximately 38% pantomime with a vaguely noble and high-minded intention: "let the voters meet the candidates and hear their policy proposals, while also seeing how they react under pressure!"

It's probably 39% a morbid NASCAR-esque hope that the weird sui generis artificial environment somehow produces an undeniable, un-walk-back-able gaffe.

That leaves 23% for hey, ratings, and attention, and opportunities for the pundit class to punditificate on who "won," who "lost," and who held steady.

Next debate Biden should take out his phone and start taking video of Trump whenever he has the floor.

Kinda childish. Wouldn't it be better if he just repeats everything Trump says in a prissy/baby voice?

W.A.S.P. is gonna be the musical guest for next debate

I could see Chris Holmes being maga

Gee, what could possibly have happened in 2016 that would cause people to not want to put faith in polls? I can't imagine.

― soaring skrrrtpeggios (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Wednesday, September 30, 2020 6:54 PM bookmarkflaglink

Cos they don't understand polls and odds?

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/polls-werent-far-2016-they-arent-wrong-now-either

Many forecasters (other than Sam Wang) had Trump with 15-35% odds to win on election day. If the average person is told their loved one has a 15-35% chance of dying from a disease, they freak out. They hear that Trump has a 15-35% chance of winning, they heard AHH SHIT, IT'S OVER!!!

I'm not going to be revisionist, many of us (other than k3v and a few others who were rightfully skeptical) treated it like a slam dunk because a) we believed the narrative that Trump couldn't win, b) he had done several things in the previous month that would end the average campaign, and c) maybe we were naively faithful that America couldn't possibly vote this lunatic in. Early voting also looked promising.

But...we (me especially) were wrong.