US Politics: July 2020 - "Denigrating this Luxury Avenue"

holy shit

Senate Dem candidates reported raising a boatload of $$$. Why does that matter? In an tied race in June, a challenger who outraises the incumbent 2:1 gains 3 pts on average during the rest of the race. Now, multiple that by 5 tossup races. It's a huge deal https://t.co/3TT3Gavmmh

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 11, 2020

It's pretty clear to me that the Senate control is not a 50/50 proposition. It's pretty clear it tilts towards the Dems. (Not anywhere to the extent the prez race does.) But I'm gonna wait til all the fundraising is in before doing an update.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 11, 2020

That confuses correlation and causation but still, donate if you can to these senate races.

Dumb question, is it better to donate to a campaign now or closer to the actual election?

better to donate the maximum now when it's technically the primary so you can donate the maximum again for the general, oh wait are you a normal person and not a GOP megadonor?

Who am I kidding, the GOP megadonors don't obey the limits, they just give $100K to an "issue advocacy organization"

Anyway, the advantage of "now" is it helps build momentum and it's easier to plan when you know you have the money instead of just expecting it, the advantage of "closer" is that the races that look close now might not be the ones that look close in November (e.g. a lot of people on both sides really thought Tammy Baldwin was gonna be in a competitive re-election campaign)

So you're saying better to try and move the needle now than wait too long as discover the needle has already moved too far in any one direction?

I'm authentically not sure which is better, just trying to describe how I see the tradeoff!

Vote Save America's Get Mitch or Die Trying fund is splitting donations among "top Senate races where we believe your donation can make the biggest difference." It notes that the specific races are "subject to change as we get closer to the election. ... For example, we just paused on Arizona because that state race is extremely well-funded at the moment."

So if you donate to that fund, you don't have to worry about making the calculation yourself. But you do have to trust that they are making the right calculations.

Although maybe you just want to donate to one specific campaign. I like the idea of spreading the wealth because winning back the Senate seems more important than any individual race.

the commutation is just unbelievable. he’s pardoned the penguin.

RIP John Lewis

wait.. maybe not, the tweet was deleted

A spokesman says the rumors are untrue.

lol

Trumps campaign appears to believe he has won the election by putting on a mask, which raises the question of why they resisted this tactically brilliant political move until after 133k deaths pic.twitter.com/FHStWnVDLS

— Sam Stein (@samstein) July 11, 2020

Lack of polling also complicates donation efforts thus early in the cycle. I would donate to Rep. Omar in a heartbeat if I knew her primary was close but afaik there’s been no polling so far.

At least we don't have to look at his puckered anus of a mouth anymore.

looking at the clip (a walk-by with some staff and secret service), i realize that the mask prevents him from talking, which is another big factor behind him not wanting to wear it. his preferred talking situation is one in which he is talking and no one else can talk. this is why his very favorite interview area is underneath the deafening roar of helicopter blades, so he can scream at everyone and ignore anything he doesn't want to hear. the walk-by is usually a more moderate version of the helicopter, but he can still shout a few things to the press and then immediately walk out a door...if he's not wearing a mask

This is @RepGrothman *today* at the Wisconsin Republican convention (which was held in-person) pic.twitter.com/MnsVlJryLE

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) July 12, 2020

Politico reports:

On July Fourth, before President Donald Trump spoke to the nation from the White House lawn, he spoke indirectly to another community on Twitter: QAnon. That afternoon, he retweeted 14 tweets from accounts supporting the QAnon conspiracy theory, a sprawling and ever-mutating belief that a mysterious government official who goes by “Q” is leaving online clues about a messianic Trump’s secret plan to dismantle a cadre of Washington elites engaged in everything from pedophilia to child sex trafficking.

Those around Trump have followed suit. Eric Trump, the president’s son, recently posted a giant “Q” on Instagram as well as the hashtag version of the community’s slogan: “Where we go one, we go all.” White House deputy communications director Dan Scavino sparked glee on Facebook when he posted a photo with Q symbology. Over on Parler, the niche Twitter alternative and MAGA hub, Rep. Devin Nunes directed people to The Dirty Truth, a video producer who has promoted QAnon-related conspiracies.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/12/trump-tweeting-qanon-followers-357238

Good morning!

It's amazing that journalists haven't figured out after all these years that the easiest way to get Trump to admit to something is to phrase the question in a flattering way. You want him to comment on Q? Ask him "Isn't it exciting the way the Q people seem to really understand what you're trying to do as president? What do you think of what they're doing?" You'll get a solid minute of him swearing on camera that he loves the Q people, they're great patriots and he's very happy to have their support.

Who cares?

8 polls in TX taken since June 1... Biden +0.3 pts... That includes 2 polls out this morning... One of which is Trump +1 and one that is Biden +5.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 12, 2020

Lol they’re going to have to spend money in Texas

who is the favorite to run against cornyn? MJ Heger? i kind of lost track of the TX democratic primary for senator, what with coronavirus and all

Yeah, Hegar is up +13 (vs. her primary opponents) in that same Texas poll. But Cornyn still has a significant lead in the general election.

Digging into the cross-tabs, the difference between the Senate race and the presidential race in Texas seems to be the independents. With Cornyn vs. Hegar, independents are split down the middle, which ultimately favors Cornyn. But they prefer Biden to Trump by nearly 2-to-1.

Fuckin Beto, man, had to waste everybody’s time running for President

After his bold remark about "of course we're coming for your guns" Beto sank his chances of ever becoming a senator from TX, at least until the earth shifts its axis.

What if he seized the seat by violent force?

More likely to see Hegar do that, as her ads push the point of her being a motorcycle riding combat veteran.

gross

i know nothing about her really. i learned via wiki that she voted for fiorina in GOP primary in 16 and uh, that's some dumb shit.

There's a long list of nominees for the "That's Some Dumb Shit" award, and they all have to beat out the Chicago Tribune's endorsement of Gary Johnson (and this was *after* the "what is Aleppo?" gaffe).

Underrated Marx brother iirc

i don't think beto would have had a much better chance against cornyn than anyone else had he run for senate again this year, but he would have had a better effect than any other plausible candidate on the rest of the democratic ticket in texas.

now that I think about it, he would have been hopeless in 2020 due to a dearth of restaurant tables to stand on.

just donated to

Gideon (Maine)
Hickenlooper (CO)
Mark Kelly (AZ)
Greenfield (Iowa)
Cunningham (NC)
Bullock (MT)

as far as i can tell, they all suck. 100% fine with that.

going to see if there's any more texas polling. if not (or if it's more like hegar down 5-10 points, which is what i expect) then i'll find some local texas things to donate to (tips welcome).

also if you're doing this sort of thing please consider donating to george gascon https://georgegascon.org/, who is running to be DA of the most populous county in the country, against a DA who has prosecuted exactly one police officer out of the 600 who have killed people during incumbency.

wait are you a citizen now caek

you don't have to answer that, apparently permanent residents are not foreign nationals in the relevant context of campaign donations

Citizen Caek

no i'm still permanent resident. was hoping to vote this year but paperwork moved too slowly at every opportunity over the past ~4 years.

caek do u like america

it's been real

Ain’t that the truth

i like it a lot less now that i have kids. it's an awful place to have a family.

Cornyn successfully avoids inspiring the visceral disgust at seeing or hearing him that Cruz does.

He's pretty disgusting

check this out

https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1280956160032505861/alBSjaBt?format=jpg&name=large