rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

they're just the political equivalent of high school yearbook senior portraits from the early 1960s, which is strangely apt, considering.

They also both look like John Carpenter needed to shoot a presidential portrait for They Live

Umair Haque is a singularly awful writer.

― but also fuck you (unperson), Monday, September 14, 2020 4:31 PM bookmarkflaglink

totally, I keep telling my peeps to stop sharing their shit asap

This decision may well cost Trump Wisconsin.

I mean maybe but I would not have expected the Greens to clear 1% in Wisconsin this year at any rate, and they probably draw off more non-voters than people who would otherwise vote for a Democrat.

Delaying mail in ballots was a bigger issue there I think.

Definitely, and that was presumably the plan behind waiting until the last possible moment to file suit instead of filing right away when the election commission ruled.

We'll see what happens down the stretch, but Biden's Hispanic problem looks very real. Looking at pre-election polling from 2016 and now, it seems Biden's ~10 pts off the Clinton pace among Hispanics in FL and nationally. https://t.co/GWmMOsnhrY

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 15, 2020

i know i was asking about this recently, re: poor performance with hispanic people in FL. FL seems like an especially complicated situation.

anyone have thoughts on what is driving this, elsewhere? it's baffling to me, but i am obviously underinformed

Startd listening, Karl, at the 30-min. mark. The dude interviewed by Silver is an acquaintance, a Cuban American and former MIamian:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/why-some-latino-voters-are-backing-trump/

I totally get why one would be wary of noted Castro copycat Joe Biden.

from the Enten story. Fascinating:

Perhaps not surprisingly, Biden's best path to the White House largely relies on winning states Trump won four years ago and where Hispanics voters make up less than 5% of the electorate. Specifically, Biden has been up by at least five points over the last two months in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Indeed, Biden can struggle with Hispanic voters and still win the election. It's, in fact, something he's doing right now. Biden is up by seven points nationally and has at least a trivial advantage in the six closest states Trump won four years ago: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Biden is able to do so because he has countered his relative weakness with Hispanic voters by doing extremely well with White voters. Biden has cut Clinton's deficit among White voters in the pre-election polls from about 13 points in 2016 to a scant four points now.
The result is a Biden lead nationally and in the swing states because White voters make up about seven times the percentage of the electorate Hispanics do nationally and at least three times (though in some cases many more times) in the closest swing states Trump won in 2016.

thanks alfred!

That interview I linked to is even better than I thought; this is what I'd share with white friends struggling to understand the complexity of the "Hispanic vote."

Can I guess? Respectability politics, evangelical beliefs, fear of the fake bogeyman of Communism?

I don't know how you define "respectability politics" here. I'd add: fear of immigrants, fear of a wobbly economy.

Fair enough. In this case, respectability politics means the sort of talk about 'well we worked hard and came here the right way and these new people are just lazy' etc etc.

Oh, yeah! That's certainly a trope with those Cubans who came here before 2000.

came here the right way

under the most lenient and generous immigration status granted by the US government to any population in the world

I've heard that from non-Cubans, too, though.

Perhaps Biden needs to be photographed eating a taco bowl

https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/3479ac3/2147483647/strip/true/crop/2048x1365+0+0/resize/1680x1120!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F27%2Fcc%2F54445f484154aeb8d9c652b69d20%2Flat-bidengarcetti-la0094685552-20190508

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/media-mistakes/616222/

I need a mask to protect me from that gastronomical horror.

There's yet another article from The Atlantic magazine linked upthread, this one about the news media and its failures in covering Trump. The article is otm from start to finish. It's thesis is here:

if it doesn’t adapt, fast, the press will stand as yet another institution that failed in a moment of crucial pressure.

Narrator: ... (eh, you can fill in the rest of the joke that is increasingly less funny and more sad every day.)

I need a mask to protect me from that gastronomical horror.

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, September 15, 2020 1:36 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

just looks like they are eating tacos

lol I read that as "locusts"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/joe-biden-youth-vote-turnout/616168/

Some of the messages Baumann tried on the group didn’t perform very well. For instance, participants didn’t like being told that Trump is so bad, they simply must vote for Biden, even if they don’t particularly want to. “They needed positive reasons to do it,” Baumann told me. The “You must stop Trump” strategy didn’t work.

They’re catching on!

He came up with what NextGen now calls “the Democratic Avengers,” after the Marvel movie featuring an ensemble of superheroes.

... oh

The critical 12 year old demographic is going wild for Biden

Scientific American just endorsed him, apparently.

He came up with what NextGen now calls “the Democratic Avengers,” after the Marvel movie featuring an ensemble of superheroes.

as I quoted on the Biden thread:

In May, NextGen announced it planned to spend $45 million to help Biden beat Trump. […]

The Democratic Avengers has since become one of the group’s most popular messages about Biden, according to its surveys[…]

The Avengers-style ad by NextGen had 145 views on YouTube when I last played it.

My 15-year-old, who has watched all the Marvel movies, really liked the Democratic Avengers thing -- I don't think it was the official NextGen thing, it was some homemade mod of the big battle sequence from Avengers 4 with Democrats' heads pasted over the Avengers? Anyway, he can't vote.

I think the 154 YouTube views thing is a bit silly, political ads aren't supposed to be watched that way.

How do you think political ads that exist only on social media are supposed to be viewed?

Generally speaking, those ads are uploaded separately to Twitter; they're not YouTube embeds. So thousands of people will see the tweet, but only a few hundred will see the ad on YouTube (unless they pay for it to run as an ad in front of someone else's video).

Yes, exactly.

Very few ads have people searching them out to view them by choice, they still can be successful ads without going viral.

I did an advanced search on twitter for August 1 to September 4th and it just gave me people aggrieved by the Atlantic article yesterday, no postings of the video from August

Rachel Bitecofer has spoken. There's a lot to read, but things are looking not-good for the world's shittiest human (and they're not looking much better for the world's second-shittiest human, Mitch McConnell).

tossup in alaska huh

After being introduced by Luis Fonsi, Joe Biden pulled out his phone and started playing Despacito ahead of his remarks kicking off Hispanic Heritage Month in Kissimmee, FL. pic.twitter.com/7R6hUZgLW1

— Sarah Mucha (@sarahmucha) September 16, 2020

Putting this here instead of the Biden thread for reasons

Lord help us

My first day on the job as a political consultant. Getting on google and searching “what do latinos want”

— wholesome on main (@InternetHippo) September 16, 2020

someone should hip him to the best taco bowls in Manhattan

A sad truth from Rachel Bitecofer in the article unpeson linked:

the inelasticity of American public opinion is a symptom of a democracy in full-blown crisis. A healthy “body politic” does not remain unresponsive to political stimulus on an epic scale. Ours alone is the only democracy in which the public flatlined in this way.

I think a lot about 9/11 and what if something like that happened under Trump's watch. GWB infamously got up to 92% approval but I doubt Trump's wound even budge up to 50

That’s more about Trump than anything else though. Most of the public is just begging to rally around the flag during these types of national emergencies but he’s fundamentally incapable of even momentarily faking gravitas and empathy in a halfway convincing manner

the public rallied around Bush's massive erection for a year or so. god those were shit times.

The 40% of people who would approve of Trump after another attack like 9/11 would be completely convinced that the Democrats conspired to do it to hurt “us”

a friend of mine had a grandpa who was loudly screaming that Dems planted people in nursing homes so they would die of COVID in large numbers, so u probably right

I don't know ms Bitecofer, but that poll of hers looks good?

Texas a toss-up also.