djp otm
― 💠(crüt), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:08 (four years ago) link
I'm not ignoring that! Turnout and enthusiasm can overcome voter suppression by serving as a backstop against it, providing the manpower to resist it/organize against it, overwhelm it w superior numbers etc.
xps
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:09 (four years ago) link
what bums me out is that none of the Dem front-runners really have that charismatic magic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5ibSvOWAMg
― 💠(crüt), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:09 (four years ago) link
I guess my broader point is ppl aren't inclined to fight very hard for candidates they don't feel too strongly about. And that includes both organizing against voter suppression efforts AND actually voting.
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:10 (four years ago) link
Doing 3 things at the same time, was that Sondland saying he had to return to Brussels to go back to his duties?Can't he be relieved of duties for being like, bent and all like that?
― Stevolende, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:10 (four years ago) link
what bums me out is that none of the Dem front-runners really have that charismatic magic. They are all boring to watch
I get the feeling you and I have not been watching the same Elizabeth Warren. (Or the same Bernie Sanders - I hate the guy and don't want him to win, but he can rally a crowd.)
― shared unit of analysis (unperson), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:11 (four years ago) link
You underestimate the sentiment that Warren and Sanders inspire, Shakes.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:12 (four years ago) link
like, are African American voters in the South gonna go to the mat for Mayor Pete, with Stacey Abrams leading the charge? I kinda doubt it.
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:12 (four years ago) link
maybe we move this to the primary thread idk
I idly wondered just now about Castor -- like, who hired him, why is he specifically there instead of someone competent? -- over on Twitter, and @dick_nixon himself said he's been in the role since 2005, having already figured that nobody else wanted the job. So an apparatchik who just trundled along through the years and then somehow figured he wouldn't ever have to deal with something like this. Hindsight may be 20/20 but he shoulda parachuted out after the elections last year.
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:13 (four years ago) link
y’all didn’t see buttigieg’s pep squad???
― 💠(crüt), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:13 (four years ago) link
If people were gagging for charisma, Booker would be doing better seeing as that seems to be the main thing powering his political career.
xp: So what you're telling me is that if African-American turnout drops, it's because they weren't inspired by the candidate and not because Republicans actively kept them from the polls?
― brigadier pudding (DJP), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:14 (four years ago) link
castor kind of seemed to just give up here a few minutes ago
― akm, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:14 (four years ago) link
the only reason Stacey Abrams isn’t the governor of GA right now is because KKKemp & the GOP did everything possible to prevent black people from voting
― 💠(crüt), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:16 (four years ago) link
no I am not saying this. I'm saying if African Americans in the South (for ex.) don't get a candidate they like, they won't be as inclined to fight voter suppression efforts because they won't be as excited about who they would be getting to vote for, which will in turn mean those suppression efforts are more likely to succeed, which will drive down turnout, which will rob Democrats of the margins they need to win.
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:17 (four years ago) link
yeah and they *loved* Stacey Abrams! You think they would've fought that hard for fuckin Mayor Pete?!
idg why this point is so hard to grasp, I feel like you guys are arguing with a point I am not making.
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:18 (four years ago) link
from Heavy (xpost)
"Castor was in charge of the Republicans’ probes into President Barack Obama’s administration, including the Internal Revenue Service targeting scandal, and he was the top attorney investigating how U.S. diplomats handled Benghazi, and has become well known for overwhelming officials with demands for answers and documents."
― Yerac, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:19 (four years ago) link
fighting voter suppression requires a motivated, organized base of support. a shitty candidate doesn't garner that motivation or level of organization - they have less money, less resources, fewer lawyers, fewer precinct captains, fewer watchdogs at the polls, fewer people gathering ballots etc. how is this a point of contention.
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:21 (four years ago) link
It's hard to know which candidate "they" will like when it's November 2019. Voters tend to pick winners. When we know the nominee, we'll know to what degree the GOP will accelerate its voter suppression.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:21 (four years ago) link
I get you, Shakey. I had similar feelings when Jim Barksdale was the GA’s Dem Senate nominee in 2016. Completely uninspiring candidate in a critical election year. (He’s a Tulsi stan now!)
― 💠(crüt), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:21 (four years ago) link
POC were skeptical of Obama until South Carolina.
I know I know, just... things aren't lookin great right now with this pack we've got imo.
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:22 (four years ago) link
fwiw the Dems in 2008 and the Republicans in 2016 each had a "long slog of a primary" and things turned out okay for their nominees
― Doctor Casino, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:22 (four years ago) link
why are we pretending like it's the black vote that fucks everything up?
― Yerac, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:23 (four years ago) link
I thought polls showed that Democratic voters in general are enthusiastic about the current field of candidates?
― 💠(crüt), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:23 (four years ago) link
He even reads it like he's quoting a song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnBKZRtmu6A
― jmm, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:24 (four years ago) link
To assert that black voters won't respond to a candidate whom you think is unexciting is condescending bullshit, unintended or not.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:24 (four years ago) link
I wouldn't say "fucks everything up", but it's sure as hell one of the votes the GOP is laser focused on eliminating first and in the highest volume
― Jordan Pickford LOLverdrive (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:24 (four years ago) link
more than other years every candidate has some vv enthusiastic supporters, and IRL i know people who are going hard for Harris, Warren, Mayor Pete, Bernie, and even Yang iirc.
― omar little, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:25 (four years ago) link
Thank you, Yerac, for explicitly asking the question I was alluding to because I didn't feel like posting very much in character on this thread
― brigadier pudding (DJP), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:26 (four years ago) link
lots of voters will be enthusiastically voting against Trump. I mean look what’s happened today.
― 💠(crüt), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:26 (four years ago) link
i don't think voting *against* someone usually works, usually you want to have some enthusiasm for your candidate even if the opponent is uninspiring or awful, but i think Trump is an exception. plus i think there is a lot of enthusiasm as ppl work out the frontrunners in the primary.
― omar little, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:28 (four years ago) link
Anybody else getting a Stephen Tobolowsky vibe from Sondland? (talkin', not lookin')
― henry s, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:30 (four years ago) link
YEP
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:31 (four years ago) link
He is the perfect combination of Stephen Tobolowsky and Wallace Shawn
― brigadier pudding (DJP), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:32 (four years ago) link
― 💠(crüt), Wednesday, November 20, 2019 1:26 PM bookmarkflaglink
This is true particularly with Independent voters. Trump will probably start losing them at a rate that he hasn't previously.
Even the low info voters that just parrot whatever TV talking head they heard last are going to notice that the heads are either silent or more solemn.
― Jordan Pickford LOLverdrive (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:34 (four years ago) link
Roffle
Sondland just yelled "I thought i was done. This is bull shit." to his lawyer off mic.— sean (@rameswaram) November 20, 2019
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:36 (four years ago) link
I think that’s wishful thinking, unfortunately Xp to the idea of extremely uninformed people suddenly getting it
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:37 (four years ago) link
lots of voters will be enthusiastically voting against Trump.
This is a huge point that I don't think people — who are used to having two sane candidates on the ballot — are fully dealing with yet. The sheer flames-on-the-side-of-the-face hatred people have for Donald Trump is something political journalists and pollsters refuse to acknowledge or ask about.
― shared unit of analysis (unperson), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:37 (four years ago) link
Xpost I mean if nothing moves them, then they're essentially Trump voters and part of his base
The general public tends to be skeptical of impeachment but it isn't as if you have to peel away all of those morons, just pockets
― Jordan Pickford LOLverdrive (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:39 (four years ago) link
There are lots of polls that measure that take into account people who say there’s absolutely no they’d vote for trump. Also, lots of pills measuring republican hatred for _any_ democratic candidate, which is a proxy for total trump support
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:39 (four years ago) link
Sorry, derp posting on my phone
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:40 (four years ago) link
Even from this far away, I can sense Nate Silver beginning to salivate.
― A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:41 (four years ago) link
This is the first time it really feels like that famous 'like to see ol' donny trump wriggle his way out of *this* jam' might have finally been superseded by events.
And of course it was one of his big donors. Of course.
― Appleman Appears: 20/2/2020. Whose Cider You On? (Bananaman Begins), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:41 (four years ago) link
Look, I am not assuming so many people hate Donald Trump that there is no way he won't win re-election. I'm assuming that if we assume that we have to have the perfect candidate in order to win, we are letting ourselves off the hook if we lose because we can just blame circumstances/the insufficiently Obama-like candidate/black people rather than our own complacency.
― brigadier pudding (DJP), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:46 (four years ago) link
i'm not a fan of Diamond Joe or Mayor Pete but they don't have the same radioactive reputation as HRC. Their effort to find a scandal to tie Biden to shows their desperate efforts at making it work a second time around. I'm not sure people are going to look at their policies and say "hmm they're worse than HRC so i better throw a vote to Trump again/sit this one out since it doesn't matter." i'm not saying Trump can't win again, but idk...a lot does depend on the next year and momentum. I also don't think Trump's got the same energy and i don't know that his campaign trail bullshit will seem so "fresh" this time.
yea I tend to agree with this take - HRC was the least popular Dem nominee ever and it still took an October surprise & the workings of the electoral college to beat her. I've never seen a politician inspire the sort of batshit conspiracy theorizing that Hillary did. even today. Republicans can't get enough of her
― frogbs, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:47 (four years ago) link
I'm not "pretending" that just happened to be the example I picked. We could argue about non-college educated white men Dem voters if you want to (and I just *know* everybody wants to)
It is worth noting that broadly speaking African American turnout drives Dem victories in key states, and a lot has been written about this. They are just one part of the Democratic coalition, but they are a critical part.
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:49 (four years ago) link
yeah, i would rather argue about one's own demographic that keeps failing everyone else. the black vote doesn't.
― Yerac, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:51 (four years ago) link
in my world of Democrats, everyone has their fav candidate (or 2) but all of them are just extremely eager to vote AGAINST Trump. akin to me voting against my US Rep Gosar. I don't even know who I actually voted FOR.
― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:51 (four years ago) link
I think it's unfair to characterize my position as being the black vote "failing". Like wtf
also I am not a non-college educated white man but hey keep talking
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:54 (four years ago) link