2018 american midterm elections (national edition)

i bet there's like five similar polls ending that fateful november day or thereabouts : )

obvious typo in option 3 (which is going to lose this poll anyways (if anyone votes, that is))

the democrats win the house not the senate

I voted both in the spirit of optimism

took a cue from tombot and voted for what I want to happen

i believe that we will win

Язрцыісаиs иззd а sчsтзматіс роllіиg зггог то шіи тнз Ноцsз

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-need-a-systematic-polling-error-to-win-the-house/?

where's the independent administration of computerised voting booths?

house and not senate from everything I can gather. which is too bad

if the Dems don't lose any seats this time around that puts them in a good position to take it back in 2020 (along with the presidency, god willing)

ayo how does one watch election results on the west coast of the USA?

They smoke weed all morning, go surfing, take a nap, and then only start checking the news around midnight.

Actually everybody should do that imo.

Waking and baking, not sure if I’d like that

also very open to explanations of how I can go surfing

where's the independent administration of computerised voting booths?

― Sing The Mighty Beat (sic)

and where are the tax returns?

tbrr the 14 states should not have their votes counted towards any national tally

So house but not senate seems like most likely outcome. So basically a gridlocked two years with maybe some purely theatrical impeachment proceedings introduced that the senate will never sign onto, Trump gets nothing done legislatively but may get some more judges and even another supreme court justice. Economy probably crashes again some time in that period and Trump likely bungles the situation, but whether the electorate punishes him for it is anyone's guess -- probably would happen with any other president but who knows what happens with Trump. Debt bomb created by GOP tax plan probably leads to a govt fiscal crisis too when the recession hits.

Man I really hope we take the Senate.

tbrr the 14 states should not have their votes counted towards any national tally

― Sing The Mighty Beat (sic), Sunday, November 4, 2018 12:34 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

wtf? this kind of ahistoric jokey crap needs to stop, there are people in the south who bear some of the worst that our shitbox government dishes out, and they should not be disenfranchised just because they live in states that seceded more than 150 years ago

same goes for anyone saying red southern states "deserve" natural disasters or other such BS, knock it the fuck off already

dan otm

tbrr fp’d for racism

counterpoint: some people should be disenfranchised (we don’t really need TWO dakotas, do we?)

Язрцыісаиs иззd а sчsтзматіс роllіиg зггог то шіи тнз Ноцsз

worth noting that trump needed a systematic polling error to win the presidency. there are all sorts of assumptions built into the models, and minor adjustments to them can yield pretty different results.

i really like the whole NYT live polling thing: l, especially if you drill down into an individual race (like dave brat v spanberger: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-va07-3.html)

i realize that might be paywalled off for some people, or you might have run out of free articles for the month. but just to give you an idea, for each individual race they provide these kinds of alternative projections and then update the results in real-time as they conduct the poll:

https://i.imgur.com/imS0QOL.png

https://i.imgur.com/imS0QOL.png

oops, second image is supposed to be

https://i.imgur.com/P2Jfngx.png

tbrr fp’d for racism

it's a fair cop, I'm opposed to one Russian having the opportunity to control the vote for entire states over all the US citizens resident there

ahistoric jokey crap needs to stop, there are people in the south who bear some of the worst that our shitbox government dishes out, and they should not be disenfranchised just because they live in states that seceded more than 150 years ago

was not aware that New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Kansas and Indiana are in the south though, nor that any of them seceded, though, so thanks for the update

though,

(got distracted at that point in the sentence by looking them all up to check. apparently Kansas is disputed)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Girding myself for Democrats winning the popular vote by 9% and still not winning the House.

really hope not!

9% would be hard. 6%, it could definitely happen.

whether it's 6 or 9, I doubt the results will be nice

Definitely not nice will be the inevitable conservative claims that voter fraud was a big problem, and the amplification of such claims by trump for weeks or years afterward

Heavily ironic because gerrymandering Russia bla bla bla

apparently Kansas is disputed

it sure was

you're saying neither the midwest nor the south want it? wow, racist

thought this was an interesting estimate

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-republicans-2018-election-analysis-20181105-story.html

To calculate the size of the Republican base, just look at the president’s job-approval number. Find that loyal Trump supporter, goes the logic, and you’re looking at a voter who will stick with Republican candidates through hell or high water.

That number, according to a recent poll, is about 39% of statewide likely voters.

The nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that this core group of GOP voters is centered among the ranks of white male voters. Many live near San Diego or in the Central Valley. Most are registered Republicans, though some are unaffiliated “independent” voters. Many attended college but didn’t leave with a degree.

why did we ever create this awful stupid discursive category of the independent/swing voter as if everyone disillusioned by the present order is angry for the same reasons

because you only have to promise some vague change to get a swathe of em?

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

11 pessimists, 16 delusional optimists

I voted for “republicans keep congress,” but I think the realty will be we win the house by a much smaller margin than we anticipated and we lose all of the tight high-profile contests. I worry we’ll all depressed about a media narrative centered around “what happened to the blue wave?” Likewise, we’ll also be dismayed by low voter turnout and unexpectedly motivated republicans.

I don’t know. I’m not in a good place.

turnout is legit this time, though. it's almost to the level of a presidential turnout in texas.

in NYC, to echo Sean Connery in that Huston-Kipling movie, look at the SHIZE of out ballot! We have to tear it in half to scan it.

Here's how to not mess up the two-page (double-sided!) ballot on November 6. Thanks, @courtneycgross! #NY1Politics pic.twitter.com/Dd746fP2VB

— Spectrum News NY1 (@NY1) November 5, 2018

that ballot isn't even half as complicated as the California one

I lovd paper ballots.

I'm just imagining that a yawning chasm will open and swallow the entire country into some belching hellpit tomorrow night so that whatever actually happens will be a comparatively pleasant surprise.

i sure hope cozy bear and fancy bear have a plan to make up for the dems' 10 point generic ballot advantage

Facebook has blocked more than 100 accounts it believes may be engaging in “coordinated inauthentic behavior” hours before the midterm elections, launching an investigation into whether the accounts are linked to any foreign entities attempting to interfere in the election.

Wow, more than 100. Thanks, Facebook.

They should just shut down Facebook for a week.

given what happened in nevada last night more nevadans should stay home

oh wait sorry that was *squints* 2014 the year no one voted

was going to say. nevada elected a democratic governor and flipped a senate seat last night!

(ok I see you were joking)

i have no idea how to read anymore sorry everyone

thrilled with the performance of my home state and also not here to shit on texas

no but I am gonna assume a shitting position position

austin is its own little world though

Hey Nuge..."fuck your feelings" (am i doing it right?)

non-voting is apparently a thing on woke twitter

🐦[There have been enough tweets about why choosing to not vote is valid and why voting isn’t the end all be all, but folks still choose to be dense.
— Diablo 🇨🇺 (@kaidiablo) November 6, 2018🕸]🐦

shit down to piss

Power poo

have we a separate thread on non-voters be a good discussion

why voting isn’t the end all be all

true that. there are dozens of arguably more effective outlets for political activity. but on average, voting happens twice (primary, general) every two years and is at worst an inconvenient chore. moreover, every election resets the direction of government and elections are entirely vote-driven and nothing else duplicates what elections do.

name just one dozen things more effective than voting and im not asking about "effective"

Eating one dozen muffins

Kemp has declared victory.

There's also this:

BREAKING FROM THE @AP: A spokeswoman in Kemp’s office, who has also worked on his campaign, says there are 22,000 provisional ballots. She has shared the county breakdown with only one candidate — Kemp — but has not shared it with the media or the public. #CantTrustKemp #gapol

— Georgia Democrat (@GeorgiaDemocrat) November 7, 2018

but if a majority of those 22000 votes would go to Abrams, which seems likely to me, that would bring Kemp down below 50% and result in a runoff, if my math isn't wrong

don't have much hope that a runoff is actually going to happen though

Kind of a dumb way to frame it imo, the question should be why do so many opt out (not counting the forcibly disenfranchised) despite the fact that it's the most popularly understood way to "do politics"

xp

name just one dozen things more effective than voting and im not asking about "effective"

posting to ilx

I think a separate thread is a good idea fwiw, esp as it's not a uniquely American question

2. Running over Kemp with a bus

xps

in-person lobbying at the legislature,
letter-writing to legislators on issues before them,
calling legislators on issues before them,
organizing neighbors around a local issue,
volunteering on a campaign,
donating money to a campaign,
running for office,
circulating an initiative petition,
volunteering at a non-profit service agency (e.g. food bank),
volunteering for a non-profit political group (e.g. Sierra Club),
giving money to a non-profit political group,
giving money to a non-profit service agency,
volunteering for a local government advisory board,
volunteering at your local school.

you get the drift.

3. being friends with og mods

"arguably" is right, aimless

aimless you left off a very important action which is agreeing with your friends on twitter

RT if u r 4 change

volunteering counts as exactly one thing. as does donating money (i'm sure the 15 bucks i gave the DSA made a big difference.)

.@staceyabrams campaign holding a press call now. “We know our opponent has had the secretary of state’s office declare he is the winner. We are here to say we don’t accept that.”

— Kira Lerner (@kira_lerner) November 8, 2018

Abrams campaign really pushing back, awesome

(^thread)

Organizing yr workplace arguably a lot more important than many of the already listed activities. But I would say that.

oh great the voting vs not voting slap fight is on ilx now thanks to one of our best and brightest

dmac, winning an election is all about aggregating votes. that aggregation is a community activity. all activities that tend to organize your community in the direction you desire makes a difference in the direction of society as a whole, which in turn is political at heart.cohesive communities are the soul of elections, more so than single votes. ask a hoos about this.

i know hoos yes he is a very good hoos indeed

and all those things are fine but listen, votes

volunteering counts as exactly one thing. as does donating money (i'm sure the 15 bucks i gave the DSA made a big difference.)

― ian, Thursday, November 8, 2018 12:22 AM (twenty-one minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This is sorta interesting like

I volunteered fo diff candidates in diff places in diff capacities

Is that just a singular "volunteer" action

As always though I'm deeply moved by unperson's totally good faith and sincere shit from a great height

are u misreading my dname man

lol your shits always come from a really grounded place, I'm grateful for it

hmm idk but <3 obv

As always though I'm deeply moved by unperson's totally good faith and sincere shit from a great height

Don't drag me into this. I voted, and am very pleased with how things shook out in NJ.

Hoooooos- Volunteering for multiple people is great! But to say that volunteering for different groups functions as a variety of "things you can do" idk. Obe umbrella to me.

Like, if you eat eight different cookies, you still just ate cookies.

no that counts as eight things see my post above

i think i agree with hoos, affecting multiple events has to be noted

voting is prob more realistic for most tho

if you spend one day volunteering for a candidate, you have done 1x volunteer

if you spend nine days volunteering for seven candidates, you have done at least 7x volunteers

Supposedly there's a drive to cure thousands of unsigned ballots before FL's 5 pm deadline tomorrow. No idea if it'll achieve much but it's to force a recount

some might also want to protect themselves emotionally from being caught up in the news

Whyever would anyone want that

I mean being emotionally caught up in the news is great

*twitch*

Look at most of us for instance, we're the pinnacle of emotional health

*twitch*

*twitch*

W8 we hav twitch streamers up on this bitch

BREAKING NEWS: More ballots are still coming in. #FloridaRecount @SenBillNelson: just received 4,000 more votes. Margin is down to 0.32% and a 26,000 vote deficit@nikkifried: just received 4,000 more ballots. Margin is down to 0.1% and an 8,244 vote deficit #FlaPol #Sayfie

— Juan Peñalosa (@JuanPenalosa) November 8, 2018

That tweet is incomprehensible to me but it has a pungent sweet air

can we PLEASE lock this thread that never should have been used in the first place?

Seems reasonable. Back to US Politics, November 2018: "There is no blame. There is no anything."