i honestly can't think of a republican who would stand a chance in that primary field at this point, trump has so completely warped that party's brains. My racist republican uncle slams Paul Ryan, Sasse, Romney, Kasich almost as much as he continues to bring up Hillary clinton
― akm, Wednesday, 17 October 2018 19:34 (five years ago) link
They won't win, but they might succeed in reexposing the Republican party to values that they associated with that party in their youth. Honesty, dignity, ideological principles (not mine, mind), maybe even reality.
In truth, though, the next election will be decided by gasoline prices, which in my opinion will be north of $6/gal. Dems can run anyone more charismatic than HRC and Trump loses. I still hope its a national security Dem, as I'd like the GOP to become a minority party for two generations.
― godless hippie skank (Sanpaku), Wednesday, 17 October 2018 19:49 (five years ago) link
Gas prices? What makes you think that?
― DJI, Wednesday, 17 October 2018 19:57 (five years ago) link
wtf / whomst tf is a "national security Dem"
― wayne trotsky (Simon H.), Wednesday, 17 October 2018 19:57 (five years ago) link
gasoline prices, which in my opinion will be north of $6/gal
Shale oil and fracking will probably keep gas prices under that $6/gal threshold for a while longer, but there is a lot of liquidity in the system now, with few places to re-invest it for a quick profit, so inflationary pressures are going to build until the bubble bursts again, which could happen before 2020. In which case, gas prices are def not going to be north of $6/gal.
― A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, 17 October 2018 20:09 (five years ago) link
Biden
xp
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 17 October 2018 20:09 (five years ago) link
Sasse won't run against Trump. I doubt Flake will. Kasich badly wants to and probably will.― A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, October 17, 2018 7:11 PM (fifty-nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, October 17, 2018 7:11 PM (fifty-nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
kasich has been running against trump for the last 3 years, trump has been running for the last 4. if Biden runs will be living in 2016 for the rest of our lives
― officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 17 October 2018 20:13 (five years ago) link
I feel like Beto O'Rourke and some attack dog as VP would probably be a good ticket. They absolutely need to run someone out there who is not 80 years old.
― frogbs, Wednesday, 17 October 2018 20:15 (five years ago) link
Gas prices definitely an underappreciated sleeper issue for 2020 (even without SA kicking off) but the rest of that sanpaku post ... I don’t know
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 17 October 2018 20:18 (five years ago) link
speaking of the superannuated....
From Esquire, June 1982. Joe Biden's been considered presidential material for nearly 40 years. The undead walk among us. pic.twitter.com/sehBI2jONc— Dennis Perrin (@DennisThePerrin) October 17, 2018
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 17 October 2018 20:20 (five years ago) link
stopped clock
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 17 October 2018 20:21 (five years ago) link
> wtf is a "national security Dem"
Military and State dept vets. I've mentioned Seth Moulton upthread as the JFK-alike natural VP pick for 2020 (and he would be a contender for the top slot in 2024+ after a stint in the Senate/MA governor), but there's Gabbard etc. and a whole slate of 2018 newcomers.
As for oil prices, the secular trend is driven by the lack of major conventional reservoir discoveries over the past 50 years or megaproject investments over the last 10 (Chris Skrebowski used to be a great resource on this). US shale wells experience annual decline rates of 25-30%, so with increasing scale they've become a Red Queen's race ("running to stand still") with little opportunity for market impacts. There's a huge backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells in the main plays, but again, the scale and protracted price slump has resulted in a severe shortage of enough fracking completion crews or wastewater disposal to markedly increase production over the next couple years. As for the companies involved, shale E&Ps screwed their shareholders years ago, screwed their institutional creditors over the past couple years, and the Fed cash spigot is closing thanks to "full employment". So, its still all about the Saudis and Iranians.
― godless hippie skank (Sanpaku), Wednesday, 17 October 2018 21:56 (five years ago) link
Serious Chevy Chase vibes off that '82 Biden pic.
― Ubering With The King (C. Grisso/McCain), Wednesday, 17 October 2018 22:08 (five years ago) link
maybe all men looked like that in 1982
― shwarmaduke (symsymsym), Thursday, 18 October 2018 02:41 (five years ago) link
no. as I recall it, they did not.
― A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 18 October 2018 03:23 (five years ago) link
Here's @KamalaHarris doing what @MichaelAvenatti got called out for. I'm a bit conflicted on this, because it's important to build small-donor capacity, but also important to be transparent in how it's done... pic.twitter.com/4Z4EHLftwh— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) November 8, 2018
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 8 November 2018 17:44 (five years ago) link
She should fire the consultant who told her this was an acceptable ploy. The fact she agreed to it is troubling.
― A is for (Aimless), Friday, 9 November 2018 04:08 (five years ago) link
Yeah what the hell
― Trϵϵship, Friday, 9 November 2018 04:18 (five years ago) link
Gillibrand did the same kind of split donation thing with Heidi Heitkamp: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/kg4hhand Sanders did it with Whitmer: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bernie-whitmer?refcode=tw181020-photos
It seems to be more of a common thing than I initially thought when I first saw someone point it out (wrt Sanders/Whitmer). Afaict, all of the pages are completely upfront about the way the money is split so idk what I think.
― The nexus of the crisis (Sund4r), Friday, 9 November 2018 04:26 (five years ago) link
not votin' for no cop
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 9 November 2018 04:26 (five years ago) link
thanks Sund4r
i thought it was incredibly lame when avenatti did it.i think it's incredibly lame that any of them do it. maybe it's the default setting on actblue, or something.
― Karl Malone, Friday, 9 November 2018 04:34 (five years ago) link
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, November 8, 2018 11:26 PM (twenty-eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
I think we'll all have to keep our minds open
― flappy bird, Friday, 9 November 2018 04:55 (five years ago) link
I’m not gonna say word one against anyone who won’t vote for Harris bc she’s a cop
― I have measured out my life in coffee shop loyalty cards (silby), Friday, 9 November 2018 04:56 (five years ago) link
It seems like all these people have partnered with ActBlue for small $ fundraising now because it's easier maybe? But it does seem like the default setting, even though it gives you the option to play around with the allocation, is to go 50/50 and there's no way none of their web people have overlooked that.
― Johnny Fever, Friday, 9 November 2018 04:57 (five years ago) link
a district attorney is not the same as a "cop" ffs
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Friday, 9 November 2018 05:18 (five years ago) link
The attorney general of every state (or of the US as a whole) is commonly referred to as the "top cop."
― Johnny Fever, Friday, 9 November 2018 05:21 (five years ago) link
That's not a common phrase in my mouth, in my house, or among any of my acquaintances.
― A is for (Aimless), Friday, 9 November 2018 05:22 (five years ago) link
Maybe "common" was the wrong descriptor. More like it's not unheard of for people to use that term.
― Johnny Fever, Friday, 9 November 2018 05:42 (five years ago) link
otm
― self (alomar lines), Friday, 9 November 2018 05:43 (five years ago) link
inslee will run btw, locally we are all planning on it (then constantine v ferguson for wa gov)
― self (alomar lines), Friday, 9 November 2018 05:45 (five years ago) link
oh c'mon they are prosecutors which are basically the cop's evil twin
will not vote for her in primary if possible, would vote for her in general because of course duh
― sleeve, Friday, 9 November 2018 05:55 (five years ago) link
Gillibrand was comedically evasive on Colbert tonight, but the implication is--thanks to Tuesday night--her 2020 campaign office now has both a location AND furniture picked out.
― The Greta Van Gerwig (C. Grisso/McCain), Friday, 9 November 2018 05:59 (five years ago) link
These people aren't going to Iowa and South Carolina for the culture. I expect at least two of the major contenders to announce before Valentine's Day 2019. Warren may do it before the end of the year, considering how eager she was to do that DNA stunt.
― Johnny Fever, Friday, 9 November 2018 06:12 (five years ago) link
not that into Gillibrand either, what with the deliberately proud Blue Dog stance
does Duckworth have any negatives? I don't see any immediate red flags for me there
― sleeve, Friday, 9 November 2018 06:16 (five years ago) link
the deliberately proud Blue Dog stance
How recently are we talking? Because she's been no Blue Dog in quite a few years.
― Johnny Fever, Friday, 9 November 2018 06:19 (five years ago) link
Maybe it's calculated and opportunistic, of course, but I also don't dismiss it out of hand. I'm a hell of a lot more progressive now than I was 10 years ago too.
― Johnny Fever, Friday, 9 November 2018 06:21 (five years ago) link
She’s a combat veteran and a mother but the GOP will find ways to smear her for both of those things
― I have measured out my life in coffee shop loyalty cards (silby), Friday, 9 November 2018 06:22 (five years ago) link
xps re duckworth
I'm just glad people finally seem to have shut up about Tulsi Gabbard.
― Johnny Fever, Friday, 9 November 2018 06:26 (five years ago) link
Having donated to her first Senate election, Duckworth was one of the poorer public speakers I've seen at that level of politics. Halting, strange emphases, a charisma sink (despite the artificial limbs). She's much better on Senate committees, and I hope she's become more confident since.
Like or not, if we wants a combat vet to out silverback Trump on a debate state, its Seth Moulton. I saw the 2016 debates as an affirmation that Trump was a narcissist bully that shouldn't be let anywhere near power. Too many independents saw otherwise. That rapist posture, lurking, grabbing chairs, claiming all the oxygen in the room, was something they didn't reject out of hand. Winning those voters may take going Camacho.
― They Bunged Him in My Growler (Sanpaku), Friday, 9 November 2018 09:05 (five years ago) link
I am reliably informed that in the criminal justice system, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups: the police who investigate crime, and the district attorneys who prosecute the offenders.
These are their stories. DUN DUN
― Glasnostradamus (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 9 November 2018 17:32 (five years ago) link
a charisma sink (despite the artificial limbs)
Admit it, it would be pretty awesome if she had, like, cyborg flamethrower attachments
― Glasnostradamus (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 9 November 2018 17:34 (five years ago) link
xp the DAs carry BADGES and they continue to INVESTIGATE CRIMES until TRUTH and JUSTICE have won the day
― j., Friday, 9 November 2018 19:01 (five years ago) link
"Look at that statue. Do you see that blindfold that Lady Justice wears? She woke up in a bathtub and found that someone had harvested her eyes. And that's why I voted Blue Cop!"
― President Keyes, Friday, 9 November 2018 19:09 (five years ago) link
everyone knows how much I love cops and prosecutors right lol
people judging candidates based on their past careers/positions is kind of stupid imo. look at where the candidates are now and how they're triangulating their positions to get elected - a good candidate is one who responds to the needs of the electorate, and if that means they advocate for different positions than they used to, that's not necessarily hypocrisy or being untrustworthy, it's being smart.
― Οὖτις, Friday, 9 November 2018 19:14 (five years ago) link
in trump's case it is 100000000% accurate tho
― Hunt3r, Friday, 9 November 2018 19:26 (five years ago) link
Let's Kill All the Lawyers
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 9 November 2018 19:36 (five years ago) link
not sure what this is in reference to tbh
― Οὖτις, Friday, 9 November 2018 19:40 (five years ago) link
I think Hunt3r's point is Trump's professional life accurately predicted his political one.
― wayne trotsky (Simon H.), Friday, 9 November 2018 19:55 (five years ago) link
trump represents actual valueless hypocrisy, the dark side of politicians responding to voters - here the con man as shimmering blob, morphing into whatever his marks want to hear at any given time, to be forgotten again minutes later with no consequences.
― |Restore| |Restart| |Quit| (Doctor Casino), Friday, 9 November 2018 20:09 (five years ago) link