US Politics November 2017

Hmmmm. Republicans think people will come around to their tax plan...

In pushing so hard, Republicans are betting they can sell this plan to the skeptical public once the legislation is signed into law by President Trump and workers see a boost in take-home pay. They are not dismissive of the polling, but they believe they can make the legislation popular enough next year to save their congressional majorities in the midterm elections. ...Republicans can take some solace in that groundswell of ACA support, showing how the public can warm up to previously unpopular laws. The question for Republicans is whether, if they pass their tax plan, they can convince the public that it was a good thing to do in time for next year’s elections...Ryan is adamant that, once the bill is signed into law, voters will like what they see.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/despite-skeptical-public-gop-pushing-ahead-on-tax-cut-plan/2017/11/25/d81ddd7c-d145-11e7-81bc-c55a220c8cbe_story.html?utm_term=.b0983e8236ae

― curmudgeon, Thursday, November 30, 2017 5:59 PM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

nobody can go back as for as 2004 to see this shit never happened and all the corporations did was stock buybacks and increase dividends for shareholders

yeah wasn’t there a story last week about some cabinet member asking a room full of ceos how many of them would be reinvesting their tax breaks to create jobs and was answered by the sound of quietly shuffling feet and a couple of muffled coughs

Just had breakfast with a few business owners. They both said if tax bill passes they will hire 20-30 new people as soon as the new year starts

Let's get this thing passed, Senate!

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 30, 2017

wow that’s like 90 new jobs, my skepticism has evaporated

Lol we are already essentially at full employment

nowhere to go but down

so, this Tillerson exit strategy was hatched by ... Kelly? I thought Kelly and Tillerson and Mattis had a "suicide pact" lol

clearly more of a murder-suicide deal

First, you pass the law, so it is a done deal. Then you sell it to the public by claiming that it will bring them amazing future benefits. Because the future cannot be inspected to verify or falsify the claims, the media will dutifully report your claims, since these are the only reportable facts in sight. People will take sides on the veracity of the claims, according to their tribal identity.

By the time the future arrives and the claims can be verified or falsified, not only will the public be accustomed to the law, but the falsity of claims made years earlier in support of what is now a settled matter will not be considered news and will not be discussed in the media.

As a basic strategy it sure seems like it could work.

Gotta try this thing of referring to "a few" of something and then immediately clarifying that I mean just two in the next sentence.

Just like with every recent war or tax cut, it's not like the GOP are going to have to clean it up. They screw up get out of power, then the Democrats cut the ugly no win legislation to duct tape a fix and then get blamed for causing the problem in the first place and two years later the GOP are back in power.

this pattern is woefully well established

last Dem fix for the war effort was a duct taped roll of $700 billion gifted to hater in chief

huh, that's odd

In the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult tracking poll out this week, just 36 percent of voters overall said they support the GOP plan. Among Republican voters, support dropped to 59 percent from 66 percent, suggesting Democrats are having some success with their attacks that the bill is strongly tilted to corporations and the wealthy.

(the drop in GOP support, that is)

it will make no difference

I don't think so either, it's just weird

Their plan is that everyone gets a taxcut in the first year, and then everything except tax cuts for the richest is phased out. So in 2018, people get money, get excited and vote for GOP in midterms, then after that they're screwed.

Phases out in 2026 right?

the stuff for individuals phases out; corporate changes are permanent

this thread makes me look forward to dying

right, I meant the individual stuff, comment before seemed to imply it would be right after 2018

Their plan is that everyone gets a taxcut in the first year, and then everything except tax cuts for the richest is phased out. So in 2018, people get money, get excited and vote for GOP in midterms, then after that they're screwed.

it's not this simple

my taxes - like those of others in NY, etc. - will go up without the state/local tax deduction, for example.

other people in other states will get screwed in different ways, since their overall rate might be lowered but that won't necessarily make up for the loss from various deductions

the monstrosity lumbers on

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/11/30/trump-to-cut-bears-ears-national-monument-by-85-percent-grand-staircase-escalante-by-half-documents-show/?utm_term=.f9a96416146b

also, surprise!

Breaking: Congress’ nonpartisan tax analysts have concluded the Senate Republicans’ tax plan would add $1 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, contradicting White House promises the bill would pay for itself and complicating GOP leaders’ efforts to find the support they need to pass the bill through a closely divided Senate.

Republicans’ massive tax overhaul steamed toward passage in the Senate Thursday, picking up key support from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) as the number of holdouts narrowed.

A few issues remained unresolved, most critically a “trigger” sought by Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) to raise taxes if growth estimates aren’t met. But GOP leaders projected optimism about passing the $1.5 trillion legislation through the Senate on Thursday evening or Friday, a major step forward as President Trump and GOP leaders seek to overhaul the U.S. tax code for the first time in three decades.

this thread makes me look forward to dying

In the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult tracking poll out this week, just 36 percent of voters overall said they support the GOP plan.

So it's almost twice as popular as ACA repeal! No wonder it's passing.

i'd be eternally honored
xpost

I just glanced at the first part of that WaPo url, read "Trump to cut bears' ears," and just figured, huh, well yeah, he would do that...

Is there a Bear Palin?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/2017/11/30/c2118302-d5e7-11e7-a986-d0a9770d9a3e_story.html

The Republican plan for a massive tax overhaul slammed into late-stage drama on Thursday as party leaders scrambled to prevent several members from derailing the entire effort.

The tension played out during a tense 62-minute standoff on the Senate floor, as Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) refused to vote with their colleagues until they had assurances that more changes could be made to the bill.

Corker and Flake had just been informed that their proposed “trigger,” a mechanism to raise taxes if economic growth came in slower than projected, would not be allowed by the Senate’s parliamentarian.

...

The competing demands sent GOP leaders scrambling. They control just 52 votes in the 100-seat chamber, and they can’t afford to lose three Republicans if they want the bill to pass. After Corker, Flake, and Johnson agreed to let the debate proceed, GOP leaders conceded that numerous changes were now under consideration.

dragging out the inevitable, most likely

for sure but it is amazing how bad they are at this

you mean governing?

being humans

Chuck Todd said they have to prove they're good at governing, see.

read that post in the voice of Edward G. Robinson

It's a bad idea for Senate Dems -- not all of them -- to insist that this thing will Blow Up the Deficit. We know what's coming. When the deficit blows up, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and the tired wretched bodies of the poor are next -- if any rubble is left standing when this excrescence is signed.

yeah the deficit stuff is all basically a weak dodge, the better argument is "the rich get all your money, you get nothing"

Being humans? They’re not even good at being boring white guys in suits

I really don't get why dems are constantly wringing their hands over the deficit. They got burned by that line of thinking repeatedly under Obama, and it looks like they still haven't learned anything.

Donors

Deficits dont matter

we poors are still really bad at class warfare you know.

Deficits dont matter

― Οὖτις, Thursday, November 30, 2017 7:13 PM

Cheney's only truth.

(and to those making this policy, 99.5% of us are poors) xp

Badass comment by defense attorney after his undocumented client is acquitted in murder case Trump and Sessions used to drum up xenophobia. pic.twitter.com/UXr7GoKe80

— David Menschel (@davidminpdx) December 1, 2017

Matt Gonzalez rules