The nation may survive, but the wound to hope and order will never fully heal - US elections 2016: the october surprises

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Heh:

Hillary Clinton needs Florida’s largest county to deliver big for her come Election Day — and Miami-Dade seems poised to do so.

Clinton wallops Trump by 30 percentage points, according to a new WLRN-Univision 23 poll released Tuesday that shows her ahead by 58-28 percent. That margin is 6 points wider than President Barack Obama’s over Mitt Romney in 2012, when Obama won Miami-Dade by 62-38 percent. Obama went on to victory in Florida by a single point.

Clinton’s spread over Trump is “the most that any Democrat has ever gotten, dating back to the 2000 election,” in Miami-Dade, said Fernand Amandi, the Democratic pollster who conducted the survey with his firm, Bendixen & Amandi International. Obama bested John McCain in Miami-Dade by 16 points in 2008. John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by only 6 points in 2004, as Al Gore did against Bush in 2000. Kerry and Gore lost.

In the poll, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drew a combined 5 percent support. Clinton leads Trump by about 4 percentage points statewide, a Real Clear Politics polling average shows.

Blue Miami-Dade is no bellwether. But a Democrat could amass so many votes in Miami-Dade — and neighboring Broward and Palm Beach — to make it impossible for a Republican to match them in redder, less populated Florida counties.

“That’s why I think it’s a potential indicator that she’s likely to win the state,” Amandi said. (Broward is bluer, but Miami-Dade has more voters.)

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 10:32 (seven years ago) link

Mike Murphy on Morning Joe: "Winning the Republican primary has become merely the first step in blowing the general election."

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:10 (seven years ago) link

hahaha what a good first line

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:11 (seven years ago) link

http://i.imgur.com/7CGYSrL.png

Le Bateau Ivre, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:12 (seven years ago) link

Neil Tennant and Chris Lowe got there first iirc:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7SZ8naFjDQ

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:15 (seven years ago) link

haha otm

Le Bateau Ivre, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:24 (seven years ago) link

TENNANT: It was the worst television appearance we ever did in our entire life. It was The Euro Tube. We opened the whole show with 'West End girls' and I had to sing live, and it was fine. We then had to wait two hours, during which time I drank four pints of beer, then I had to sing 'Tonight is forever'. You have never heard anything worse in your entire life. You know when someone sings on the television and you say, 'Wow, she really can't sing'. This was my, 'Wow, he really really can't sing'. And during the drum break in the middle I couldn't think of anything to do, so I just turned my back on the camera. I thought they could film Chris."

So Trump can learn something.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:33 (seven years ago) link

Disappointed to find out that the Internet is not blowing up with what is, for me, the highlight of this campaign: the sign being held up in the live audience of Anderson Cooper's 24-hour countdown to the final debate, which read: PUNISH ARE VERY INTERESTING

"Intersting" having been misspelled, of course.

hardcore dilettante, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:40 (seven years ago) link

PUNISH WHY CUZ SHE LOOK INTERSTING

akm, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:45 (seven years ago) link

so... why exactly trump is planning to bring obama's half-brother to the debate? is this just racist birther dogwhistling or is there some other nefarious significance known only to AM radio listeners

gwyneth anger (patron sailor), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:47 (seven years ago) link

"Hillary is Black and was born in Kenya!"

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:49 (seven years ago) link

lol a poll just came out today showing Clinton up 5% in Arizona

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:50 (seven years ago) link

4% MOE so take with a grain of salt, but this was the first major one released post "grab em by the pussy"

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 13:52 (seven years ago) link

"Malik Obama said he was voting for Trump in part because he blamed the death of Libyan dictator Moammar Qaddafi on Hillary Clinton. Malik Obama claims that Qaddafi was a friend of his."

... oh.

gwyneth anger (patron sailor), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:02 (seven years ago) link

http://www.vox.com/first-person/2016/10/19/13310016/jill-stein-millennial-voter

I face a lot of stigma for my choice to vote third party. People tell me I’m wasting my vote, or that I’m just trying to be different. But they are completely missing the point of why I’m choosing to do this. To me, my vote represents a moral choice. It reflects who I am as a person.

vomitemoji

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:08 (seven years ago) link

you might say it's a part of his personal brand

Mordy, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:12 (seven years ago) link

I would never vote for any of these third party candidates. Even so, Johnson and Stein are complete nitwits. So fuck your moral choice, millennial, what about using your eyes, ears and brain?

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:14 (seven years ago) link

I don't begrudge anyone's right to vote for whomever they want. My issue is when the person says "I want to vote for a total garbage clown because that is who I am"

¶ (DJP), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:15 (seven years ago) link

It is a moral, not a pragmatic, act.

Weird distinction. A lesser-of-two-evils vote is a moral calculation too.

jmm, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:17 (seven years ago) link

Voting literally isn't a moral act, I find myself wanting to yell yet again

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:19 (seven years ago) link

oh man i was figuring trump would just end up devoting the debate to ramblings and insinuations about the GOP local headquarters attack in a vain attempt to get that to stick to clinton, but i underestimated his tactical instincts. indeed who could have imagined he would reach out to the president's half-brother, mourning his close personal dictator. that's it, clinton's done, it's over. although you'd think if trump was so opposed to people revealing their strategic choices ahead of time, he would have kept his surprise audience member an...actual surprise. "Each more surprising than the last!"

also, i suspect in trump's mind, being aligned with a kenyan proves birtherism isn't racist.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:19 (seven years ago) link

Black Lives Matter emphasizes intersectionality, which is the idea that one’s social identities are inseparable and all significant when considering how marginalized groups are oppressed. I see Clinton as a person who does not have an intersectional mindset. How can she say she supports the black community in our country but then continue to support Israel as it violently occupies Gaza, where black Palestinians live? She lacks the globally progressive view that I want in a candidate.

Mordy, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:22 (seven years ago) link

black Palestinians?

Mordy, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:23 (seven years ago) link

i'd rather these kids bozo it up for stein than stay home, even though in electoral terms there's no difference whatsoever. the kids voting stein this year, most of them, will be solid democrats eight years from now, and the kids staying home, most of them, will probably never vote. this election will be a learning experience for them.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:23 (seven years ago) link

I suppose I can understand the logic of supporting Trump for people who are already befriending bona fide dictators. You're not doing worse at that point.

jmm, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:24 (seven years ago) link

which vote do i look best in?

duped and used by my worst Miss U (President Keyes), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:25 (seven years ago) link

He should leave Obama's half bro behind and instead take along a melted steel beam from the World Trade Center, Vince McMahon and Gallagher. I mean, people in the first few rows should already be covered by plastic sheets as it is.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:26 (seven years ago) link

Scottie Nell Hughes Agonistes

https://www.gq.com/story/desperate-gamble-of-scottie-nell-hughes-trump-surrogate

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:30 (seven years ago) link

Also, this story is a treasure -- Indiana Trump campaign officials realizing how fucked they are:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/vigo-county-indiana-trump-women-214368

Just minutes before the Trump team had arrived at Pizza City, the day after Pearman registered, they had stopped by the courthouse to greet early voters. At times, it was downright awkward to watch them interact with voters.

“Did you vote for Trump?” Samuel asked a man and his wife, who looked to be in their 50s or early 60s, as they walked out of the courthouse, fresh from the voting booth.

“No, we’re not that crazy,” the man said, chortling.

“I shouldn’t have asked,” Samuels said under his breath, as a reporter and camera crew from France 2 made a beeline to the couple, trying, unsuccessfully, to interview them.

Thirty minutes later, inside Pizza City, as Team Trump for Indiana met with about a dozen members of the local Pachyderm Club—a group of Republicans and Trump supporters—the mood was downright funereal. It had the feeling of a group of battle-weary survivors huddling around a campfire to count their losses while bracing for what the next day might bring. While the official purpose of the meeting was to get out the vote early, it quickly turned into a Trump supporter group therapy session.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:32 (seven years ago) link

I can't harsh too much on the kids voting for independent candidates (I didn't know jack shit about the world either when I wasted my first vote on Perot). But it really only takes the most cursory observation to recognize that Stein and Johnson are like a notch or two above Trump in intelligence and competence.

Alito Shuffle (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:33 (seven years ago) link

xp i hope they're fucked but it looks like he'll win indiana?

Mordy, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:36 (seven years ago) link

All these professional dickheads on Team Trump, I hope they are never allowed to live their mistake down.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:38 (seven years ago) link

Well nobody was necessarily thinking he'd lose Indiana, right? I think any gloominess on their part is attributed to his chances overall.

Evan, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:40 (seven years ago) link

i don't know, i kind of think this election, specifically, is a moral choice. my opposition to trump isn't just because i think his so-called "policies" are hot garbage- it's because i think that on a basic human level, trump is morally and unethically fit to hold the office. supporting trump is a basic moral failure, and i have no personal respect for anybody who does.

and, you know, there are people, a lot of people, who feel about clinton the same way i feel about trump. i disagree with the judgment they have made, but i'm not going to pretend that there is no reason for them to feel that way, that their distaste for clinton is built _entirely_ on lies. and while the third party candidates may be _professionally_ unqualified for the office, there simply isn't as strong an argument that they are _morally_ unqualified.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:50 (seven years ago) link

On a basic human level, Trump is morally and ethically unfit to exist outside of a cell or cage of some sort. Maybe a back yard with a high fence but only if his leash were securely staked down.

Alito Shuffle (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 14:56 (seven years ago) link

from that interview

What about in terms of her agenda? If she wins with Republican support, do you worry her progressive agenda will be weakened?

I’m not worried about it in terms of her agenda. The other day I allowed myself the fantasy of what a Clinton presidency is going to look like, and of course the big tactical question for every new president is which of their bills they introduce first, because that’s the one they have the most political capital to get across. I was like, well, it could be her paid family leave bill, it could be her bill for free college for everyone making under $125,000 and the debt relief for everyone. It could be her new tax credits for the very poor, who Peter Edelman—who resigned from the first Clinton administration over welfare reform—has said is the best poverty program he’s seen in a long time. I was like, wow, there really isn’t anything on her plate that isn’t a pretty strong, progressive, populist intervention. I’m pretty certain that there’s very little room for her to abandon that. She’s laid down some pretty strong markers. This is the Hillary Clinton who in her first major speech after the Democratic convention went to Planned Parenthood and gave perhaps the most unflagging, straight ahead, pro-choice message of any Democratic presidential candidate.

Mordy, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:00 (seven years ago) link

On a basic human level, Trump is morally and ethically unfit to exist outside of a cell or cage of some sort. Maybe a back yard with a high fence but only if his leash were securely staked down.

― Alito Shuffle

ouch. come on, let's not send him to gitmo here.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:03 (seven years ago) link

How is Trump so in character all the time? Like even the stupidest or rudest people I've met/seen are still more human in certain settings. I guess we're not ever seeing those moments where he's flipping through channels on the couch at night or quietly drinking a cup of coffee while scrolling through news in the morning etc, but when people are analyzing you so thoroughly for so long you're bound to have actual character development along the way either via being made aware of those exaggerated portrayals of yourself or the relentless magnifying glass just inevitably reveals some semblance of dimension. But with Trump, it just seems that he is so impossibly cliche cartoony Trump all the time no matter how hard you look and there is something extremely inhuman about that. Even Hitler enjoyed painting innocent, pretty little scenes when he had time to himself.

Evan, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:15 (seven years ago) link

From the Perlstein inteview:

[i]On the question of Trump’s uniqueness, how do you compare him to George Wallace, who you have written about?

Wallace was a competent administrator. [Laughs.]

OK, so zero for one.

He really was able to keep the trains running on time and manage a complex governmental unit in the form of the State of Alabama. Points to George Wallace there. But his ability and willingness to spur his audiences and constituency to whatever rage it took to empower himself is quite similar. Also, Wallace had so much more to work with. Compare the riots in Baltimore over Freddie Gray in which one CVS went up in flames to the riots in Chicago in 1968, where literally two straight miles of Madison Street, the main street through the black South Side, was rubble. A lot of this stuff Trump has to kind of, I wouldn’t say invent, because he certainly believes it’s true, but when he says that American cities are more dangerous than Afghanistan, it’s just nonsense. George Wallace could say that violent crime had quadrupled since he was a kid and he’d be right.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:16 (seven years ago) link

it's not a character xp

ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:16 (seven years ago) link

it's not a character!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:17 (seven years ago) link

it's a tumor

Οὖτις, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:19 (seven years ago) link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaTO8_KNcuo

k3vin k., Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:22 (seven years ago) link

Trump is wholly reactive. He's possibly more personable in a private setting among, like, his family or something. But when he's in public and surrounded by people baying for blood and thunder, that's what he delivers

xxxposts Fascists tend to stoke fantasies of fascist comeuppance in me. It's a personal failing, admittedly, but it's all ultimately just a lampoon. I don't honestly want Trump to be kept in a medium sized cardboard box and poked by a stick but it's a fun visual to conjure up.

Alito Shuffle (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:23 (seven years ago) link

How is Trump so in character all the time? Like even the stupidest or rudest people I've met/seen are still more human in certain settings.
His most human moment in the campaign was soberly talking about Harambe. So weird. (Ok, to be fair, he actually did sound compassionate and human during that "gaffe" when he was walking about soldiers with PTSD being "weak", in the full context.)

Nhex, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:24 (seven years ago) link

Yeah, some other dude from history was an animal lover, too, iirc.

Alito Shuffle (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:27 (seven years ago) link

I wasn't implying that he is "pretending" in any way, just amazed that before Trump it seemed no matter how anyone presents themselves publicly, you could imagine they'd have some relatively relatable human moments when not in the spotlight. Pretty hard to imagine him not completely at peak Trump even during the most mundane moments.

Evan, Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:29 (seven years ago) link

Another man there was, made the walls build on time

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Wednesday, 19 October 2016 15:30 (seven years ago) link


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