2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

wtf @ "winning" by less than 2,000 votes

why is that wtf

a win's a win

or are you just saying "damn, tight contest"

'Cause Simon pointed that out already

It's interesting if you read Obama's latest economic speeches, like the one he gave in Wisconsin yesterday, they sound like nothing so much as '90s Clintonomics redux. Bill Clinton was considered a "technocrat" (more neutrally) or a "triangulator" (more negatively) by contemporary commentators, for his micro-initiative approach to dealing with the economy. He was famous for having a targeted tax credit for every problem. Now look at Obama's speech - targeted tax credits galore. There's even a "Credit Card Bill of Rights" - remember the "Patients Bill of Rights"? Obama seems to decry NAFTA, but if you read what he actually promises closely, he's pretty moderate on trade as well: "I won't stand here and tell you that we can - or should - stop free trade." In fact, it's easy to close your eyes and imagine the whole speech being given by Bill Clinton in 1996. The irony, of course, is that Obama famously stated that the Republicans have been the party of ideas for the past 15 years or so, a none too subtle dig at Bill Clinton. It takes some chutzpah for him to make a criticism like that, when his own economicy policy is pretty much lifted wholesale from the Clinton playbook.

the "100 years in iraq" thing is really overblown

overblown, please, a fucking gift is what it is

Only slightly more than: "bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran."

And Alfred makes too many assumptions, both WRT what independents believe and what they read.

-- contenderizer, Thursday, 14 February 2008 22:06 (51 minutes ago) Link

I knew someone would get it wrong. Here's what I tried to say: by the time of the general election, Obama or HRC should actively woo indepedents by reminding those swinging leftwards that McCain is a coward on torture and FISA, and those swinging rightwards that he has no clue what to do with the economy.

It's fairly easy if Obama doesn't pussy out because McCain's an old man.

what most terrifies me about an Obama vs McCain election -- and no one's really talkign about it -- is the younger man showing deference to his opponent's age, seniority, and "life of public service." That twaddle sank Mondale in '84 before he even had a chance.

Obama has already been talking about McCain's "half century of service," which actually functions as a sly dig at his age.

It's interesting if you read Obama's latest economic speeches, like the one he gave in Wisconsin yesterday, they sound like nothing so much as '90s Clintonomics redux. Bill Clinton was considered a "technocrat" (more neutrally) or a "triangulator" (more negatively) by contemporary commentators, for his micro-initiative approach to dealing with the economy. He was famous for having a targeted tax credit for every problem. Now look at Obama's speech - targeted tax credits galore. There's even a "Credit Card Bill of Rights" - remember the "Patients Bill of Rights"? Obama seems to decry NAFTA, but if you read what he actually promises closely, he's pretty moderate on trade as well: "I won't stand here and tell you that we can - or should - stop free trade." In fact, it's easy to close your eyes and imagine the whole speech being given by Bill Clinton in 1996. The irony, of course, is that Obama famously stated that the Republicans have been the party of ideas for the past 15 years or so, a none too subtle dig at Bill Clinton. It takes some chutzpah for him to make a criticism like that, when his own economicy policy is pretty much lifted wholesale from the Clinton playbook.

-- o. nate, Thursday, February 14, 2008 4:46 PM (18 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

yeah you kind of have a point here ... I'm kind of hoping/assuming that Obama's just speaking that MOR language in economics but wouldn't actually practice it ...? im not really fluent in his talks on economics though.

on other issues, i am confident that while he talks to the middle he is pushing from the left but i am not clear on his economic stance, and i know he has some more conservative economists in his potential cabinet

dudes, free trade/NAFTA is a train that left the station years ago. It ain't comin' back.

NAFTA was one of those deplorable eventualities that transcended party.

xpost doctors are like workers on oil rigs now?

Insurance companies aren't the only obstacle to health care reform.

what most terrifies me about an Obama vs McCain election -- and no one's really talkign about it -- is the younger man showing deference to his opponent's age, seniority, and "life of public service." That twaddle sank Mondale in '84 before he even had a chance.

Here, I think you shouldn't worry, Alfred. Obama is plenty savvy. He's no Walter Mondale.

Insurance companies aren't the only obstacle to health care reform.

uh right but the group called "physicians for a national health plan" isn't one of them.

http://i28.tinypic.com/hv9onc.jpg

uh right but the group called "physicians for a national health plan" isn't one of them.

Exactly. And the figures they provide aren't skewed high. They're lowballing it, if you ask the Republicans, insurance companies and physicians who oppose this sort of thing.

I knew someone would get it wrong. Here's what I tried to say: by the time of the general election, Obama or HRC should actively woo indepedents by reminding those swinging leftwards that McCain is a coward on torture and FISA, and those swinging rightwards that he has no clue what to do with the economy.

-- Alfred

No, I got it the first time around. I was saying that McCain's track record on torture and the economy aren't silver bullets in the fight against him.

Oh, and Hillary Scott.

from that physicians site:

A universal public system would be financed this way: The public financing already funneled to Medicare and Medicaid would be retained. The difference, or the gap between current public funding and what we would need for a universal health care system, would be financed by a payroll tax on employers (about 7%) and an income tax on individuals (about 2%). The payroll tax would replace all other employer expenses for employees’ health care. The income tax would take the place of all current insurance premiums, co-pays, deductibles, and any and all other out of pocket payments.

totally OT i realize but

http://www.nybooks.com/images/tables/20060323img2.gif

yes but where are the graphs for INNOVATION and CHOICE

financed by a payroll tax on employers (about 7%) and an income tax on individuals (about 2%).

It's doable, though the payroll tax they're talking about is a big bite (7%!!!) that would likely be passed on to employees in the form of lower wages and reduced benefits in other areas. That and/or higher costs for goods and services across the board.

But what they're talking about isn't what either Hillary or Obama are running on, right? It's just their thing.

yeah. they're talking about what it would take for single-payer.

Representative John Lewis, an iconic figure from the Civil Rights era and one of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most prominent black supporters, said Thursday night that he planned to cast his vote as a superdelegate for Senator Barack Obama in hopes of preventing a fight at the Democratic convention.

John McCain's 23-year old daughter kinda has good taste in music.

I may have to switch my vote.

dude was 49 when she was born!

John McCain's 23-year old daughter kinda has good taste in music.

isn't this list the default when you first sign up for MySpace? or is that only if you sign up as a 23-year old white girl?

I want to fuck a skanky Republican chick - m4w
Date: 2007-12-15, 9:31PM PST

I want to fuck a peroxide-blonde richbitch daddy's girl. I want to fuck a hotter, younger, stupider (if possible) version of Ann Coulter. You preferably grew up on Mercer Island and had your 16th birthday shown on "My Super Sweet 16." It's okay if you're only a republican because your parents are and you don't even know how many houses Congress has. At the very least I want to fuck a girl who wears a cross and thinks the Iraq War is a great idea.

I'm am a skinny-jean wearing hipster who goes to Evergreen, supports Dennis Kucinich and only listens to mix tapes of obscure 70's pop.
I am sick of cool, interesting girls who are more likely to make out with other girls than me.

I want the most bland, insipid cockgobbler on this side of the Cascades. I've always wanted to blow my load in your lip-glossed, bubble-gum chewing mouth, but class, social groups and a sense of morality have prevented me.

Your pictures get my smarmy pretension.

David Bowie, Bob Dylan, Radiohead, Led Zeppelin, the Rolling Stones, the Who, the Beach Boys, Madonna, Jay-Z, the Smiths, Björk, Kanye West, the Cure, T. Rex, the Velvet Underground, 2 Pac and Dr. Dre, Elliott Smith, Modest Mouse, TV on the Radio, JAMC, Tom Waits, the Roots, Pulp, Blur, Ladytron, Spoon, Iggy and the Stooges, Goldfrapp, Clap Your Hands Say Yeah

"Tom is in your extended network"

isn't this list the default when you first sign up for MySpace? or is that only if you sign up as a 23-year old white girl?

The Cure and The Smiths are on the default playlist for all 23-year old white girls who sign up on MySpace? EVERYTHING OLD IS NEW AGAIN! That pleases my nearly-40 year old self to no end.

Representative John Lewis, an iconic figure from the Civil Rights era and one of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most prominent black supporters, said Thursday night that he planned to cast his vote as a superdelegate for Senator Barack Obama in hopes of preventing a fight at the Democratic convention.

-- BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Thursday, February 14, 2008 8:43 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Link

pretty big deal

Rep. John Lewis and Sen. Barack Obama: I BET THEY'RE FRIENDS ON MYSPACE.

Link for Lewis? The story I saw had him considering switching, but not committed to it yet.

From MSNBC:

Since Feb. 5, superdelegate endorsements are 11-2 Obama over Clinton. (Clinton has also lost two delegates since then -- one today switched to Obama and Tom Lantos passed away.)

Don't think this includes another Georgia congressman (Dave Scott?) who switched today and certainly doesn't include Lewis.

Key stat: Obama Leads McCain Head-to-Head (46% to 42% -- still very close), but McCain Leads HRC Head-to-Head (48% to 41%). Again, still all meaningless at this point, but it shows, I think, (a) why Obama is moving past HRC (he's a better matchup with McCain) and (b) that, even with Obama's momentum and massive rallies and with a moutain of money and enthusiasm at his disposal (i.e., perhaps at his peak point), he still is barely ahead of old, unexciting War Hero John McCain.

(Maybe, tho, McCain is also enjoying a "surge," of sorts, since he's all but wrapped-up the GOP nomination over the past 10 days).

he still is barely ahead of old, unexciting War Hero John McCain.

Yeah, but...this is the US electorate, right? What kind of numbers would an unbeatable candidate look like in a world where these elections typically come down to the greater of 49.x% and 49.y%? I'm asking seriously...how do these numbers compare to similar polls in reference to any historic blowouts? 84, 72, or 64...could a time-traveling Internet board have contained posts like yours?

i dont think those head to head polls are very useful in predicting the way the election will ultimately fall - they are better at showing how dems would fair against one person than giving you an idea of how close it would actually be

could a time-traveling Internet board have contained posts like yours?

NEVER.

Not sure what you mean, Deej. If you're saying it's way too early to focus on head-to-head polls, I agree. But to the extent you believe that Obama is peaking (e.g., Tom Brokaw saying Obama's momentum is "nuclear" at this point), then I think it's instructive to note that -- even now -- he's polling nationally only about 4% above McCain.

kind of weird, since john lewis gave hillary an official endorsement a couple of months ago

McCain trying very hard to distance himself from the ''100 Years in Iraq'' comment by saying he meant (a) like our continuing presence in countries like Korea or Germany (i.e., not a large-scale fighting force) and (b) only for the length of time and to the extent approved by the Iraqi Gov't. Who knows if it will work. Certainly, McCain's boxed himself in on the issue: The Democratic nominee will want a quick withdrawal from Iraq on a specific timetable, and McCain will vehemently oppose that.

I dunno, seems to me the Dems are also in danger of boxing themselves in a bit over Iraq. After all, how likely is a quick withdrawal, whoever gets elected? Given that at this stage it would probably lead to Iraq completely falling apart. There's no good move for a Democratic president.

how likely is a quick withdrawal, whoever gets elected

about as likely as flowers growing out of my ass

Well, that's partly the point. McCain -- like Bush -- having created a mess, is going to exploit the dificulties that the Democratic nominee will have in realistically proposing an alternative to (a) call Democrats ''weak,'' and ''without real convictions,'' ''negative,'' and ''defearist,'' while (b) using the muddle to drive the debate back to where the GOP is comfortable (displays of strength without demanding public sacrifice).

I dunno, seems to me the Dems are also in danger of boxing themselves in a bit over Iraq. After all, how likely is a quick withdrawal, whoever gets elected? Given that at this stage it would probably lead to Iraq completely falling apart. There's no good move for a Democratic president.

And make no mistake: McCain wants this debate. It's the whole focus of his candidacy. Maybe he badly miscalculated, but I doubt it.

American voters like STRENGTH. They may, on occassion, want an inspirational, transformative figure -- like Obama might be -- but normally, they like the toughest looking and sounding guy in the room.

We'll see.

uh yeah carter reagan bush clinton all real tough guys

-- jhøshea, Thursday, 14 February 2008 21:14 (Yesterday) Bookmark Link