Turning On The Giant Faucet Of Bullshit - US Politics February 2025

i sense in myself a restraint. like, am i really seeing what i seem to be seeing?

like is trump going to do a "deal" with canada and mexico to get pledges to stop drug trafficking and then call off the dogs?

― treeship., Sunday, February 2, 2025 11:40 AM (thirty-nine seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

in his first term he might've done this just to get some small concession so the media can fawn over his hardnosed approach to politics and call him a winner but now I honestly have no clue, I think the simplest/best explanation is that his brain has been completely hollowed out

he seemed like that before though

i mean, frogbs, in 2016 - 2020 and beyond, there was a lot of coverage of trump being crazy, dangerous, and even a foreign asset. it seemed to make him more popular and people thought libs were chicken little. but idk. maybe we are.

― treeship., Sunday, February 2, 2025 11:42 AM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

none of that really affected their day to day lives though, if the prices of groceries go up 25% and airlines start having major issues and Medicaid becomes nonfunctional I think they might start making some noise. Trump voters may be total dipshits but they're also very selfish, I don't think they're really okay with their quality of life going down just so Elon can pocket another 10 billion dollars

seeing how the tariffs are essentially self imposed sanctions, the message will be the same as it was internally for the russian sanctions: any failures will be blamed on other countries, and any changes that had to be made because of the tariffs will be touted as major victories. there will be blame laid on the orange idiot, but none from the people who voted for him. we all know how this will unfold.

How much lumber comes from Canada percentage-wise? I feel like it’s a significant amount? On top of the deportations, this could be another huge increase in the cost of constructing new housing.

i think it's around 25%

My fear: when the United States begins to recoil from the effects of its own economic folly, the Trump administration will ask Americans to regard the pain as a sacrifice in a way that George W. Bush after 9-11 never did. It'll convert no one on our side, of course, but it'll harden the MAGA voters' unbearableness.

Trump voters love him because he sticks it to the people they don't like, I dont think they're willing to actually sacrifice what little they actually have

all the talk of whether Trump and his cabal will be "blamed" for this or that inevitable catastrophe, whether supporters will begin to have second thoughts, etc... one possibility is that Trump et al are behaving in a way that suggest they dont expect public opinion or electoral politics to be a significant check on their future power

Not only people that they don't like, but the people that didn't already know they didn't like.

They all became aware of and started despising Canada this week.

Musk openly talked about how tough this was gonna be economically for Americans.

trump voters already sacrificed many things because of the idiot and his gang's policies. it doesn't matter if they will lose much more (and they will, together with the people who will suffer because of these idiots), they will never blame it on trump, unless the whole propaganda machine that feeds them turns on trump.

George W. Bush after 9-11 never did. It'll convert no one on our side, of course, but it'll harden the MAGA voters' unbearableness.

― the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, February 2, 2025 1:36 PM (eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Unlike 9/11, the tariffs are self-imposed and serve no purpose

the pointlessness is the real issue here. i have no idea what could possibly be gained by imposing tariffs in this manner. it does not seem to be part of a larger strategy to increase domestic manufacturing

Unlike 9/11, the tariffs are self-imposed and serve no purpose

now we export our bullshit

Trump has likely convinced MAGA that he’s helping the American lumber industry with tariffs, and MAGA that he’s stopping the import of fetanyl. He probably wants to open currently protected US forests to logging.

Do Schumer and Jeffries have a qualified media communications staff that can counter the Trump take on podcasts, social media, mainstream media, and also getting on Fox News to try to make those in the right wing bubble at least be aware of contrary arguments?

i think musk could end up in jail. not sure if he realizes that he’s incriminating himself

who’s gonna arrest him?

Batman

who’s gonna arrest him?

― what angers me about the smurfs these days (voodoo chili), Sunday, 2 February 2025 14:19 (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

dc could put out an arrest warrant

he’s shielded by trump for now but as soon as that’s over, seems likely he could end up in prison. like if something goes badly awry with this payment stuff and trump decides to make him the fall guy

If Trump continues on the trajectory of turning America into a pure strongman state he might take a cue from Putin and decide he needs to put a billionaire behind bars as a show of force to keep the others in line. But also its hard for me to imagine Trump actually getting mad at Elon for screwing something up, I dont think Trump really gives a fuck about anything anymore. I think a lot of whats going on right now with DOGE &c is Trump trying to set up a situation where he can be the nominal head of state but get others to do the presidenting for him

I think the point of all this is to have direct say or what does or doesn't get paid for, what gets taxed. This gives him the power to force orgs, states, other countries to knuckle under in a show of subservience. We'll see if this actually works or just pisses off lots of people while crashing the economy.

direct say *over

xp has anybody that was ever involved with trump not ended up the fall guy ultimately?

I dont think Trump really gives a fuck about anything anymore.

His brain is pudding. "Donald Trump," cognitively speaking, is a collection of about a dozen misremembered 19th century economic and racial doctrines, endlessly repeated placeholder phrases ("like no one's ever seen before") and personal grudges he wants to use state power to avenge.

Glad I bought a car last year. People who want to buy one this year are gonna be fucked with a capital F.

Trump letting Musk take the fall if things turn sour is plausible enough, but right now it's just another fond wish located in an imaginary future. It's becoming clear that the current assault by Musk and DOGE is an attempt to seize as many nodes of power in the government as possible and cripple their ability to serve as instruments that could used by the opposition for impeding Trump's government by decree. He's not going to abandon that effort until he feels cornered.

Why is musk doing this

He was once liked

Schumer on X and Bluesky keeps mentioning some of the bad stuff happening, but he never really says what he is gonna do. Dems could at least be trying to slow things down in Congress, trying to determine who has standing to possibly challenge Musk actions in court, but I haven't seen many actions other than by the 22 states who challenged the spending freeze in several courts.

Calling out Trump as bad or stupid to those who already know that is not enough to help out the federal government employees losing their jobs or being placed on administrative leave, it's not enough to restore malaria and HIV medications to folks around the world . Maybe there isn't much Schumer can do, but I would like to see he and Jeffries trying. Also Maga is being told that Musk and Trump are getting rid of woke stuff that is a waste of money, while they're planning in the upcoming reconciliation bill to cut taxes and regulation by massive amounts for rich people and corporations .

While some are moving on to the tariffs stuff, Trump (no matter how dumb he may be) is stillenabling stuff like the following re dei at the Dept of education -

But according to interviews with those placed on leave and people familiar with the notifications, the department appeared to have cast a wide net, suspending people whose job titles and official duties had no connection to D.E.I., and whose only apparent exposure to D.E.I. initiatives came in the form of trainings encouraged by their managers. One of the training workshops that employees speculated may have led to their being flagged took place more than nine years ago.

Hopefully union lawyers can try to oppose these things, but it would be nice to know that Schumer and Jeffries are supporting the unions and helping them bring legal actions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/us/politics/trump-dei-education-department.html

Maybe there isn't much Schumer can do, but I would like to see he and Jeffries trying.

But...it's the weekend! Check back on Monday afternoon (seriously, they're OOO until 3 PM ET tomorrow).

I realize that it’s hard to take advice or comfort from Ezra Klein, but I do think he’s right about this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/02/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-trump-column-read.html?unlocked_article_code=1.t04.BACp.b8IuPSbMH4kp&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

If Trump tried to pass this agenda as legislation, it would most likely fail in the House, and it would certainly die before the filibuster in the Senate. And that would make Trump look weak. Trump does not want to look weak. He remembers John McCain humiliating him in his first term by casting the deciding vote against Obamacare repeal.

That is the tension at the heart of Trump’s whole strategy: Trump is acting like a king because he is too weak to govern like a president. He is trying to substitute perception for reality. He is hoping that perception then becomes reality. That can only happen if we believe him.

The flurry of activity is meant to suggest the existence of a plan. The Trump team wants it known that they’re ready this time. They will control events rather than be controlled by them. The closer you look, the less true that seems. They are scrambling and flailing already.

… What Trump wants you to see in all this activity is command. What is really in all this activity is chaos. They do not have some secret reservoir of focus and attention the rest of us do not. They have convinced themselves that speed and force is a strategy unto itself — that it is, in a sense, a replacement for a real strategy. Don’t believe them.

rump is acting like a king because he is too weak to govern like a president.

otm

I don't see scrambling and flailing yet tho

He offers some examples but also assumes more will be evident soon.

I don't see scrambling and flailing yet tho

Or failure.

We are in an era of lawlessness. Not criminality — lawlessness. The law, as written on paper, no longer matters, because the response to "You can't do that!" has become "Fuck you, stop me," and the response to "You must do this" has become "Fuck you, make me."

^^ sadly otm rn

idk, a whole lot of these things will fail, and/or will be significantly curtailed. It's just that the mechanisms for that — primarily through the courts, but also through other institutions — move a lot more slowly than the blizzard of executive orders.

Trump is not following the "norms" or the constitution and he's getting away with it and praised by MAGA, no matter whether his real reasons are being afraid of being humiliated by a US senator or 12 degree chess. He's got enough supporters thinking he is showing that he is in command, and there's not a strong enough media or opposition party that is challenging him.

And Trump has lots of judges in the courts who can help him

Maybe. I'm not persuaded. I do think he's weaker than he looks.

A lot of autocrats come into power, immediately start doing a terrible job, tank the economy, take a big hit in popularity, cant get any of their agenda off the ground… and still remain in power for a good long time through various combinations of coercion, corruption, inertia, and force. In fact thats usually the norm, not the exception. Im nit seeing any evidence that this will be any different

Like, most autocrats are “weak”. Thats why they have to do what they do the way that they do it

I wish I had your confidence.

i think so much of this is powered by Trump, if he dies or becomes thoroughly incapacitated and it's JD Vance who's owning the libs by doing this bullshit i think much of the uh "charm" of this con largely evaporates.

at least that's what i cling too sometimes tbh

I do think he's weaker than he looks.

He's far too weak to accomplish much within the legal limitations of his office. The difficulty here is that Trump's greatest strength is the weakness and fragmentation of the forces arrayed against him. He is daring his opposition to force him act within the law. It's the job of Congress and the courts to act as the brakes on his government-by-decree and it ought to be in their glaringly obvious self-interest, because once Trump is a law unto himself they lose their power and very reason for existing, they've cut their own throats and occupy empty offices empty of authority.

what's happening to USAID is a disgrace

xxp No I agree w/you curmudgeon, I am very pessimistic. I think he's "weak" in the same way Putin is weak - whether he's popular or flailing or effective or hated is beside the point imo bc he and his cabal are not going to give up the reigns of power voluntarily now that they are in control