Turning On The Giant Faucet Of Bullshit - US Politics February 2025

so, take the tariffs. if it causes a major crash, this will be blamed on biden.

if they somehow do not --- if the tariffs work out and helps spur a renaissance of domestic manufacturing --- then that means i do not understand how things work.

it seems ridiculous to be antagonizing canada and mexico for no reason. this doesn't seem like a targeted plan to encourage onshoring through tariffs, it's just chaotic.

call me naive but I think Trump actually will take the blame for this

The thing that sucks is it’s a deliberate goal of these fucks to force a reaction through protests and then declare the Insurrection Act and crush them with violence.

so trump and elon are both deeply disturbed mentally. elon apparently is a heavy user of ketamine and you can sort of tell he is "off" in recent appearances.

Xxxp to Frogbs even those supposed hard nosed capitalists at JP Morgan were like “he’s not going to do tariffs don’t worry” and now they are “whoa we weren’t expecting that!!!”

I just want these peoples’ lifestyles to catch up with them if you catch my drift

this is sort of a point i would make a lot on ilx in 2016 and perhaps annoyingly so. but i guess then there were some brakes on him? so he would say crazy stuff but much of the government sort of chugged along normally?

xp to myself

The North American automobile manufacturing sector, which is highly integrated with Canada, was predicted by an industry representative to crash within the week. Whether that's an exaggeration is to be seen. Watch the markets on opening tomorrow to see the degree of nervousness.

but both trump and musk are mentally ill. they need treatment. but instead they are just shooting from the hip, ripping up the US government. seemingly! i can't tell if this is just some sort of show

Xxxp to Frogbs even those supposed hard nosed capitalists at JP Morgan were like “he’s not going to do tariffs don’t worry” and now they are “whoa we weren’t expecting that!!!”

its been the most frustrating part of all this honestly like yes the Dems are bad at messaging but they were pretty clear on how tariffs were gonna fuck everyone over and that Trump 100% was gonna do them because he's just that stupid and careless and the electorate was just like, "nah, Trump's gonna be good for the economy actually"

like is trump going to do a "deal" with canada and mexico to get pledges to stop drug trafficking and then call off the dogs?

but yeah it's wild like the media pretty much forced Biden out of the race after that debate, they hammered on his mental fitness nonstop and it became the *only* story for nearly 2 whole months, now here we have President Trump dumping millions of gallons of water into the ocean for no reason and there's barely been a peep about it, in case it's somehow still unclear whose side they're on

is musk just building some budget presentation for congress? did they know they could only delay these grants, not stop them? they just want to make a point? are they rational actors? or is this some kind of k hole

i mean, frogbs, in 2016 - 2020 and beyond, there was a lot of coverage of trump being crazy, dangerous, and even a foreign asset. it seemed to make him more popular and people thought libs were chicken little. but idk. maybe we are.

i sense in myself a restraint. like, am i really seeing what i seem to be seeing?

like is trump going to do a "deal" with canada and mexico to get pledges to stop drug trafficking and then call off the dogs?

― treeship., Sunday, February 2, 2025 11:40 AM (thirty-nine seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

in his first term he might've done this just to get some small concession so the media can fawn over his hardnosed approach to politics and call him a winner but now I honestly have no clue, I think the simplest/best explanation is that his brain has been completely hollowed out

he seemed like that before though

i mean, frogbs, in 2016 - 2020 and beyond, there was a lot of coverage of trump being crazy, dangerous, and even a foreign asset. it seemed to make him more popular and people thought libs were chicken little. but idk. maybe we are.

― treeship., Sunday, February 2, 2025 11:42 AM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

none of that really affected their day to day lives though, if the prices of groceries go up 25% and airlines start having major issues and Medicaid becomes nonfunctional I think they might start making some noise. Trump voters may be total dipshits but they're also very selfish, I don't think they're really okay with their quality of life going down just so Elon can pocket another 10 billion dollars

seeing how the tariffs are essentially self imposed sanctions, the message will be the same as it was internally for the russian sanctions: any failures will be blamed on other countries, and any changes that had to be made because of the tariffs will be touted as major victories. there will be blame laid on the orange idiot, but none from the people who voted for him. we all know how this will unfold.

How much lumber comes from Canada percentage-wise? I feel like it’s a significant amount? On top of the deportations, this could be another huge increase in the cost of constructing new housing.

i think it's around 25%

My fear: when the United States begins to recoil from the effects of its own economic folly, the Trump administration will ask Americans to regard the pain as a sacrifice in a way that George W. Bush after 9-11 never did. It'll convert no one on our side, of course, but it'll harden the MAGA voters' unbearableness.

Trump voters love him because he sticks it to the people they don't like, I dont think they're willing to actually sacrifice what little they actually have

all the talk of whether Trump and his cabal will be "blamed" for this or that inevitable catastrophe, whether supporters will begin to have second thoughts, etc... one possibility is that Trump et al are behaving in a way that suggest they dont expect public opinion or electoral politics to be a significant check on their future power

Not only people that they don't like, but the people that didn't already know they didn't like.

They all became aware of and started despising Canada this week.

Musk openly talked about how tough this was gonna be economically for Americans.

trump voters already sacrificed many things because of the idiot and his gang's policies. it doesn't matter if they will lose much more (and they will, together with the people who will suffer because of these idiots), they will never blame it on trump, unless the whole propaganda machine that feeds them turns on trump.

George W. Bush after 9-11 never did. It'll convert no one on our side, of course, but it'll harden the MAGA voters' unbearableness.

― the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, February 2, 2025 1:36 PM (eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Unlike 9/11, the tariffs are self-imposed and serve no purpose

the pointlessness is the real issue here. i have no idea what could possibly be gained by imposing tariffs in this manner. it does not seem to be part of a larger strategy to increase domestic manufacturing

Unlike 9/11, the tariffs are self-imposed and serve no purpose

now we export our bullshit

Trump has likely convinced MAGA that he’s helping the American lumber industry with tariffs, and MAGA that he’s stopping the import of fetanyl. He probably wants to open currently protected US forests to logging.

Do Schumer and Jeffries have a qualified media communications staff that can counter the Trump take on podcasts, social media, mainstream media, and also getting on Fox News to try to make those in the right wing bubble at least be aware of contrary arguments?

i think musk could end up in jail. not sure if he realizes that he’s incriminating himself

who’s gonna arrest him?

Batman

who’s gonna arrest him?

― what angers me about the smurfs these days (voodoo chili), Sunday, 2 February 2025 14:19 (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

dc could put out an arrest warrant

he’s shielded by trump for now but as soon as that’s over, seems likely he could end up in prison. like if something goes badly awry with this payment stuff and trump decides to make him the fall guy

If Trump continues on the trajectory of turning America into a pure strongman state he might take a cue from Putin and decide he needs to put a billionaire behind bars as a show of force to keep the others in line. But also its hard for me to imagine Trump actually getting mad at Elon for screwing something up, I dont think Trump really gives a fuck about anything anymore. I think a lot of whats going on right now with DOGE &c is Trump trying to set up a situation where he can be the nominal head of state but get others to do the presidenting for him

I think the point of all this is to have direct say or what does or doesn't get paid for, what gets taxed. This gives him the power to force orgs, states, other countries to knuckle under in a show of subservience. We'll see if this actually works or just pisses off lots of people while crashing the economy.

direct say *over

xp has anybody that was ever involved with trump not ended up the fall guy ultimately?

I dont think Trump really gives a fuck about anything anymore.

His brain is pudding. "Donald Trump," cognitively speaking, is a collection of about a dozen misremembered 19th century economic and racial doctrines, endlessly repeated placeholder phrases ("like no one's ever seen before") and personal grudges he wants to use state power to avenge.

Glad I bought a car last year. People who want to buy one this year are gonna be fucked with a capital F.

Trump letting Musk take the fall if things turn sour is plausible enough, but right now it's just another fond wish located in an imaginary future. It's becoming clear that the current assault by Musk and DOGE is an attempt to seize as many nodes of power in the government as possible and cripple their ability to serve as instruments that could used by the opposition for impeding Trump's government by decree. He's not going to abandon that effort until he feels cornered.

Why is musk doing this

He was once liked

Schumer on X and Bluesky keeps mentioning some of the bad stuff happening, but he never really says what he is gonna do. Dems could at least be trying to slow things down in Congress, trying to determine who has standing to possibly challenge Musk actions in court, but I haven't seen many actions other than by the 22 states who challenged the spending freeze in several courts.

Calling out Trump as bad or stupid to those who already know that is not enough to help out the federal government employees losing their jobs or being placed on administrative leave, it's not enough to restore malaria and HIV medications to folks around the world . Maybe there isn't much Schumer can do, but I would like to see he and Jeffries trying. Also Maga is being told that Musk and Trump are getting rid of woke stuff that is a waste of money, while they're planning in the upcoming reconciliation bill to cut taxes and regulation by massive amounts for rich people and corporations .

While some are moving on to the tariffs stuff, Trump (no matter how dumb he may be) is stillenabling stuff like the following re dei at the Dept of education -

But according to interviews with those placed on leave and people familiar with the notifications, the department appeared to have cast a wide net, suspending people whose job titles and official duties had no connection to D.E.I., and whose only apparent exposure to D.E.I. initiatives came in the form of trainings encouraged by their managers. One of the training workshops that employees speculated may have led to their being flagged took place more than nine years ago.

Hopefully union lawyers can try to oppose these things, but it would be nice to know that Schumer and Jeffries are supporting the unions and helping them bring legal actions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/us/politics/trump-dei-education-department.html

Maybe there isn't much Schumer can do, but I would like to see he and Jeffries trying.

But...it's the weekend! Check back on Monday afternoon (seriously, they're OOO until 3 PM ET tomorrow).

I realize that it’s hard to take advice or comfort from Ezra Klein, but I do think he’s right about this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/02/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-trump-column-read.html?unlocked_article_code=1.t04.BACp.b8IuPSbMH4kp&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

If Trump tried to pass this agenda as legislation, it would most likely fail in the House, and it would certainly die before the filibuster in the Senate. And that would make Trump look weak. Trump does not want to look weak. He remembers John McCain humiliating him in his first term by casting the deciding vote against Obamacare repeal.

That is the tension at the heart of Trump’s whole strategy: Trump is acting like a king because he is too weak to govern like a president. He is trying to substitute perception for reality. He is hoping that perception then becomes reality. That can only happen if we believe him.

The flurry of activity is meant to suggest the existence of a plan. The Trump team wants it known that they’re ready this time. They will control events rather than be controlled by them. The closer you look, the less true that seems. They are scrambling and flailing already.

… What Trump wants you to see in all this activity is command. What is really in all this activity is chaos. They do not have some secret reservoir of focus and attention the rest of us do not. They have convinced themselves that speed and force is a strategy unto itself — that it is, in a sense, a replacement for a real strategy. Don’t believe them.