U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

(not just reviled but caricatured as the embodiment of far left lunacy. not sure how she can shake that off.)

And if several posters in her feed indicated that they supported her AND Trump, well, it reminds me of the Sanders/Trump voters of 2016.

hey look I would love to be wrong about her

the biggest obstacle to aoc as a candidate comes from the donor class

donor class needs to learn to eat a little shit but of course they never will

Gyac otm — Trump is a total caricature of lunacy. This path of catering to haters hasn’t really succeeded very well.

People on twitter are making a case for Gavin Newsom, as the kind of psycho bastard attack dog you want on your side.

there's been a lot of discussion about 2004 as an analogue to 2024, with the hopeful reminder that dems thought they needed a hawkish white veteran from the south to compete in bush's america, but ended up winning with an anti-war black guy from chicago with the middle name hussein. obama and aoc are v different figures, but the overall lesson is perhaps worth remembering. esp. since one of obama's strengths was being able to position himself as a charismatic relatable outsider.

i think one of the greatest barriers to her running for president is being of prime childbearing age :( obama had someone else to outsource that work to iirc.

i have no idea what her reproductive goals are, so i could be wrong and she doesn't want to reproduce, but if she does i don't see that as being compatible with a presidential campaign

People on twitter are making a case for Gavin Newsom, as the kind of psycho bastard attack dog you want on your side.

― glumdalclitch, Monday, November 11, 2024 9:24 AM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I’m old enough to remember when that attack dog was Rahm Emanuel

Having sat in a room listening to a bunch of MAGAs talk about AOC - Jay otm. They absolutely despise her. :/

you have to have someone without any 'socialist' connotations as they have poisoned that word and concept too much, despite it being a viable solution to many of these economic anxieties.

“party of welfare benefits for people who don’t work” sounds like the GOP to me!

Judging by his public appearances, Newsom seems to have a better dealer than Emanuel though

Elise Stefanik as UN Ambassador ugggh

Homan also seems like an absolute nightmare but that isn't v surprising

The NYT picture of Stefanik made me think of the Nicola Murray character in The Thick of It … a reminder that there is going to be more egregious incompetence and venality

They’d rather everyone lose than someone else win.

https://images2.penguinrandomhouse.com/cover/9780525509585

From the financial crisis of 2008 to rising student debt to collapsing public infrastructure, she found a root problem: racism in our politics and policymaking. But not just in the most obvious indignities for people of color. Racism has costs for white people, too. It is the common denominator of our most vexing public problems, the core dysfunction of our democracy and constitutive of the spiritual and moral crises that grip us all. But how did this happen? And is there a way out?

McGhee embarks on a deeply personal journey across the country from Maine to Mississippi to California, tallying what we lose when we buy into the zero-sum paradigm—the idea that progress for some of us must come at the expense of others. Along the way, she meets white people who confide in her about losing their homes, their dreams, and their shot at better jobs to the toxic mix of American racism and greed. This is the story of how public goods in this country—from parks and pools to functioning schools—have become private luxuries; of how unions collapsed, wages stagnated, and inequality increased; and of how this country, unique among the world’s advanced economies, has thwarted universal healthcare.

akm bernie is literally a socialist but that didn’t seem to stop him (except with the dem establishment)

People on twitter are making a case for Gavin Newsom, as the kind of psycho bastard attack dog you want on your side.

Maybe his buddy FF Coppola could cast him in something and the Dems can play the R’s game

magas hating her is going to become a big point in her favor by 2028 when they are they hated incumbent party who razed the country and stomped on our rights for a few extra dollars

akm bernie is literally a socialist but that didn’t seem to stop him (except with the dem establishment)

I mean I agree Bernie was a bet worth taking but like I said, at this point, now, they have utterly poisoned that word. and the dem establishment is also a hurdle you need to get over (though it feels like that establishment may have just crumbled).

magas hating her is going to become a big point in her favor by 2028 when they are they hated incumbent party who razed the country and stomped on our rights for a few extra dollars

there is this. I think it'll be 2 years before we have any idea of how likely it is someone can run and counteract all of this shit. If the economy somehow does great despite horrible social repurcussions, unfortunately I think the US populace will go with the economy.

I like AOC way more than Newsom… is Shakey still accidentally banned? If not, he can corroborate how SF leftists compared him to Patrick Bateman in the 2000 mayoral election

in the end, it's always the economy that wins out. maybe Carville was right all along.

shhhh you have to literally apologise for the gall of running for election against people ranting that you’re killing their children by teaching them about civil rights

The left and even a fair number of not-extremely-left people despite Newsom. I think he's alright and I even think he was probably a better SF Mayor than anyone expected. He deserves a huge amount of credit for gay marriage. But I absolutely don't see how he could win national office. Republicans fucking hate him, the left hates him, too many negatives.

Jesus fucking Christ, this interview on This American Life with the guy gaming out what the mass deportations will look on day one is horrifyingly bleak.

The left and even a fair number of not-extremely-left people despite Newsom. I think he's alright and I even think he was probably a better SF Mayor than anyone expected. .

Literally anyone the democrats put up is reviled on the right because the right sees anyone challenging their right to rule as anathema. If nothing existed, make things up. Might as well run the most loathed candidate on the right if they drag your own voters out the door! What’s the worst that could happen? It just did!

absolutely this

the bar for being a good mayor is pretty low. basically every mayor in the bay area is or has been useless or a criminal in recent memory.

at least willie brown was my kind of criminal

Newsom is loathsome, so is Pete, so is Shapiro.

While she is part of the Democratic party, AOC makes the most sense (given our current perspective) given that her policies are popular and she is regarded as “bucking the elites” which seems to be what people want.

Jerry wasn’t useless or a criminal … he just gentrified the fuck out of the city.

Those people on the AOC instagtam post are probably lying, come on lol

Meanwhile our current recalled mayor is useless and an alleged criminal …

a bit like our president-elect

Xp table — it’s likely i have a higher opinion of Newsom because I lived in CA through decades of Republican governors … and Gray Davis, who was basically a Clinton-style D

at least willie brown was my kind of criminal

For those ilxors not interested in CA politics, Willie Brown was a mentor and former bf of Harris.

oh the GOP made sure we knew that

yeah people are never really wrong about their experience of struggling to economically survive so any time you quote numbers at them you really should be thing about whether your numbers are in some way bullshit

― badder living thru Kemistry (Noodle Vague), Sunday, 10 November 2024 11:55 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

so just to be clear, you think that something happened in the real economy between november 2020 and january 2021 that reduced the economic circumstances of republicans and caused them to struggle economically?

https://tinypic.host/images/2024/11/09/Screenshot-2024-11-09-at-12.41.21PM.png

and if the same thing happens in the opposite direction between now and january, you will take that as evidence that the real economy has improved and the economic struggle is reduced?

fwiw i’ve never argued that everyone is lying and the economy is amazing. the economy, especially during 2021-22, was super rough, and as i’ve said many times itt that’s my main theory for why trump won. things did improve through 2023-24 but it was too little too late and voters were still pissed.

there *are* a subset of voters who are clearly lying though: the partisan right wing voters who say the economy is bad whenever democrats are in power. there are also partisan democrats who exhibit the same phenomenon, but it’s not as strong. it’s not gaslighting to acknowledge this, and it’s ok to believe in government statistics on the economy

That graph shows partisan sorting, sure, but it also shows a median decline of about 40 points from 2020-2023 — so it's hardly meaningless!

I think it was kinda uneven tbh and maybe that’s what people are feeling?

That graph shows partisan sorting, sure, but it also shows a median decline of about 40 points from 2020-2023 — so it's hardly meaningless!

― Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra), Monday, 11 November 2024 12:05 PM (fifty seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

again my point isn’t everyone is lying and surveys are meaningless or there was no economic pain from inflation. but there is a substantial component that doesn’t track to fundamentals and moves because of things like who the president is. so a hardline position that “people are never really wrong about their experience of struggling to economically survive” can’t be true. if you want to take that hardline stance, you should be prepared to admit the economy will be greatly improved come january. i personally won’t be making that inference

Sure, I agree. Just saying the trendlines matter even accounting for people's partisan/ideologocal lenses.

One of the main problems with “real” economic numbers vs people’s lived reality is that ever-widening gap between the top earners and everyone else. There’s money being generated but most of the excess value gets slurped up by the hoarding class. The bottom 20-30% have been feeling it for decades, but now even solidly middle-class households are struggling. (Not helped by changing societal norms that say, just to pull out one example, broadband internet & every man woman & child needing cell phones is as much a necessity as electricity & water. At least you can steal food if you need to.) The fact that inflation and in some cases prices are easing isn’t felt yet, because so many people have been paying bills on credit for a few years, so even if everything becomes more affordable, lots and lots of regular folks — even white-collar ones — have these CC and LOC payments to catch up on. This’ll be hanging around necks for a long time.

The AOC/Trump voter makes perfect sense to me — I don’t think they’re lying (most of em). Resentment of neoliberalism is climbing up the rungs of the economic ladder & a big chunk of people want someone to tell them they’ll actually change the system. That Trump & co are bound to change it for the worse is secondary to the *promise of change*.

Anyway blah blah, my 2c etc

A graph of consumer sentiment doesn't tell me much about "their experience of struggling to economically survive" xp