U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

Black voters shifted toward the openly racist candidate by 10 points.

If its 90 degrees and a room full of people tell you the room is cold and they're going to put the heating on, then the room is cold and the heating is going on

My sense with groceries (haven't googled to verify) is that food prices shot up during that 2020-21 supply-chain crisis, and that publicly held companies kept prices high after that issue was resolved, leading to record earnings.

2022 saw a bigger grocery price increase than 2020-21 I believe

what should Biden have done to reduce or prevent inflation?

Although it didn't prove to be a factor in the midterms, which is why I think the issues here are multifaceted and not just one thing

At least 100 million chickens have been deliberately destroyed due to the avian flu since 2021. Considering that a single chicken can easily produce dozens of eggs, it's a pretty safe bet that overall egg production was reduced by a couple billion eggs. Gee, I wonder why eggs in particular got so expensive so fast. Must be Biden's fault.

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Sunday, November 10, 2024 7:37 PM (fifteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

as someone that raises chickens, I can assure the number of eggs a chicken in its prime laying years is more than “dozens of eggs”

I would have started with not renominating the Fed Chair who was actively trying to tank the Biden economy and punish workers with interest rate hikes.

Well, they may get rid of the Fed altogether, so that would solve that.

You guys keep excusing the two most salient facts about this election: 1) racism 2) misogyny

not necessarily in that order, maybe both equally

I think the conventional wisdom would be cutting the interest rates reduces inflation, but then you get higher unemployment, which can cause a recession or depression - which is also bad and blamed on the government.

Adam Tooze had a piece in the Guardian about how close the global markets came to total collapse in April 2020. This would have been disastrous for countries with more precarious economies.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/how-coronavirus-almost-brought-down-the-global-financial-system

The collapse was averted but the pandemic was a very unusual event that hurt lots of people everywhere.

Someone said Harris should have blamed the economy on Fed Chair Jerome Powell when she was asked about it at the debate. I thought it was weird that they continued Powell but I guess he keeps the stock market high.

Cutting interest rates won't reduce inflation!

I would have started with not renominating the Fed Chair who was actively trying to tank the Biden economy and punish workers with interest rate hikes.

Fwiw I think racism, misogyny, and inflation all influenced the vote just enough to tip it to trump. Of inflation hadn’t been an issue she may have eeked out a win.

Here’s and enraging article:

https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/white-women-donald-trump-democratic-party-8jv628b38

Dan S, no one is excusing racism or misogyny. The latter seems particularly salient.

But this stubborn attachment to identity as a way of deflecting actual salient criticism of policy and the way it was poorly communicated by the Dems is not helpful,
imo.

Now we have the Dem establishment blaming Muslims and trans people for losses instead of owning up to the fact that they ran a bad campaign that was completely detached from or actively hostile to the needs of the demographics they needed

Interest rate increases made housing, vehicles and consumer debt (non-housing consumer debt rose almost a trillion - 25% - post pandemic) all much less affordable and had a significant impact on economic attitudes.

I didn't say "firing" Powell I said I wouldn't have renominated - nominating a new Fed chair who's not a Republican/Trump appointee/person dedicated to undermining your supposed political project would have been completely normal and above board. Didn't say it was one weird trick to solve the economy, either - but it's a start and failure to do so an indication that Biden's team were either full of shit or generally stupid.

I think you are both right - mostly optics but nevertheless a shrewd tactic.

Basically I think that the Dems were courting voters who are racist and misogynistic with centrist politics, as opposed to moving left where that is less of an issue, though they wouldn’t have gotten as much in the way of campaign contributions. But grassroots organizing is hard and considering Harris had a much shorter time frame … I am more forgiving of the cater to the big donors centrism… but not that forgiving tbh

Interest rate increases made housing, vehicles and consumer debt (non-housing consumer debt rose almost a trillion - 25% - post pandemic) all much less affordable and had a significant impact on economic attitudes.

This may all well be true, but if inflation is the problem then surely cutting interest rates would exacerbate rather than dampen inflation?

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f544ac8-282a-4282-bed3-571a425f989d_1508x1090.png

Blowing up interest rates didn't slow corporate profiteering (or stop Russia from invading Ukraine or etc.).

Which made it the worst of all worlds to be the party in power - consumer borrowing costs rose while companies continued to line their pockets while lower income workers lost the minor gains they had experienced in the first 9 months of the pandemic.

table, you and I and everyone here cares about policy and the dems are definitely to blame for not communicating it helpfully, but honestly I don't think most voters care about policy.

Blowing up interest rates didn't slow corporate profiteering (or stop Russia from invading Ukraine or etc.).

True, although those are different questions, and I've not seen the latter argument made before

In regards specifically to the inflation question I don't believe cutting interest rates would have had a positive effect on inflation. I think inflation would be much worse if that approach had been pursued

Housing costs were bad prior to the rate hikes. Not that higher mortgage rates didn’t have an impact… anyway I still believe the government should have kicked down more stimulus money to low income people and kept the increased amount of childcare benefits from the pandemic and other aid to low income parents and those with disabled relatives

my hot takes:

1. if Trump gets the chance he will undermine the Federal Reserve. His billionaire bitcoin cronies want to do away with it entirely so it destabilizes our currency, whence they can make a lot of money with their scams.

2. I also think his tariff proposals are just to bank money for the government to offset his continued huge tax cuts for the super-rich so his deficits (4 trillion last time) don’t seem too egregious, it will hurt the rest of us of course

And stopped giving weapons to Israel …

I think for a lot of low-information / low-propensity voters, inflation was basically the *only* thing the election was about: Prices went up under Biden, let's see if Trump can get them under control.

Xp Dan - yes, that is the aggravating horrible thing! Like, they are voting for things to get worse … based on those metrics.

In regards specifically to the inflation question I don't believe cutting interest rates

You're adding the cutting there - it's a question of not raising, not cutting. (they couldn't actually lower interest rates any further)

Xp jaymc — and the voters who didn’t vote for either party because of Gaza

xp to anvil maybe so but it may be helpful for you to factor in, if you are not already, that the US treasury basically underwrites/subsidizes all US mortgages which are all pegged to the central rate. This is different from any other country aiui.

All mortgages or just owner-occupied residential ones?

You're adding the cutting there - it's a question of not raising, not cutting. (they couldn't actually lower interest rates any further)

I was talking in a more general sense, if you want to control inflation then raising interest rates is one of the tools available to do that (though it comes with other consequences, as you and others have noted previously)

Other questions here across the west about the long term effects of low interest rates, not specific to this cycle but thats for another thread

Yeah, it was a really unusual recovery. If you recall, there were strage events like crude oil having a negative price because there wasn't any workforce and ships were clogging up the Panama Canal.

All mortgages or just owner-occupied residential ones?

― sarahell, Sunday, November 10, 2024 5:46 PM bookmarkflaglink

Not sure if that is to me, but I remember Aussie ilxors thinking it was wild that the US has 30-year fixed rate mortgages that are pegged to the prime rate.

Anyway, I think we on ILX all like each other, and we are all sad. :(

Honestly tho the PYM, pro-Palestine groups ran better campaigns than the Democrats… like if you think about it that way it is really demoralizing, How much money did the Dems have vs how much money supports campaigns about the genocide in Gaza?

The mortgage question was directed at you! A bit of my work is related to real estate finance but it is commercial property which I thought was different and not underwritten in that way? But idk for sure?

Maybe so? Commercial finance could be entirely private or cash only, or owned by REITS.

I was talking about the large group of regular people who go to a credit union or a bank to get a housing loan, those interest rates afaik are based on 30 year US Treasury Bills. The rates are fixed, so if you got in at a low rate, good for you. But tying this back to regular people and the price of eggs, I definitely think that the inability to conceive of owning a house because suddenly mortage rates shot up and so did rentals is a pain point that I absolutely think affected people's decisions.

Anyway, not looking to fight, please correct, etc.

It was a tangential question

Commercial residential property can get a range of different tax breaks (federal, state, local). But yeah there's no equivalent of the FHA.

Fixed mortgage rates are pretty important to keeping people in houses they've already bought imo. When they are higher, they work against people who are trying to buy, it's definitely a bit of a crapshoot. That's something that spiked housing prices, people who maybe wanted to sell but were locked in at low rates and weren't going to trade that for high rates at a new house.

thanks to all for this good discussion

A little rant: do you remember the Kamala Harris's ad when she launched her original presidential campaign in 2019? Within the first 10 seconds, she says "while Trump is a sexual predator, I've prosecuted them!" she also mentioned Trump's being a rapist on a few other campaign appearances in '19. But for some reason, when she ascended to the top of the ticket in July, that attack basically got eliminated from her speeches and her messaging. Why did this happen? Who abandons their most potentially-damaging line of attack? I wonder if her team of consultants were mostly men, and if some of whom may have been perps themselves, at one time or another, like many of the major political reporters like Glenn Thrush and Mark Halperin. My theory is that they pressured her into avoiding that subject, claiming that "it makes Trump look strong", but in reality, it was out of their own personal guilty feelings.

Remember how Harris almost went on the Joe Rogan podcast? I think it would have been really good for her, and real missed opportunity that she didn't do it (basically worth 40 million in ad dollars, maybe even more). It would have been far more valuable than a(nother) rally in a swing state where only 15,000 could take part.

What if Harris, after the opening pleasantries, within the first 15 minutes of her time on the show, tossed aside her consultants' guilt and said this:

"Men, I know several of you are listening. Imagine the women in your life - your girlfriend, your wife, your daughter, your mom. Now imagine if a man, even after your wife/daughter/girlfriend said "NO!", still insisted on forcing himself upon her, and fucking her without her consent. You would be mad at that motherfucker, right? You'd want to smash that guy's face with a baseball bat! Now imagine if that guy had a chance to be our president - wouldn't you want to do everything in your power to make sure that fuckhead got crushed in the election? You sure as hell would not want to vote for him! This is what we are faced with in this election. Donald Trump is a rapist! He forced himself on multiple women even after they said NO! If he wins, you are sending message to the women in your life that if you are a rapist, you force yourself upon someone without their consent, nothing will happen to you. Instead, we elevate you to the highest office! We reward you! Is that the world that you want for the women in your life?"

Even though I've only listened to maybe a dozen or so episodes over the past decade-plus, I know that Rogan would have let her cook, and then maybe offered a story about a person in his life who was raped. It would have been illuminating to the millions of men who listen, and may have flipped several of 'em. Would it have won the election? I don't know, but it definitely would not have hurt her - it would have made her look stronger to the very demo that "strength' matters (her real chance to call Trump a rapist fuckhead to his face at the debate? Damn, if only...).

There are waaaaaaaaay too many men in the political consultant world who don't understand the visceral side of politics. Either they have never had anyone in their life who was raped, have ever had to drive over to a friend's house to console her afterwards, to try to put together pieces of evidence, or help her rebuild herself after such a horrific event (or were the victim themselves!) - or if they have, they don't even think about it. Jesus fucking christ, we men in politics need to get our heads out of our asses!

I picked this up the other day & am just about done. In the light of multi-decade trends, the way the 2024 election came out feels almost inevitable. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28957152-the-populist-explosion

I’m certainly not a specialist in this field and if someone who is and has read it wants to refute it, by all means — but it looks pretty solid to me. Basically says that since the beginning of the collapse of the Keynesian consensus in the 70s and accelerated by the globalism and free trade movements of the ensuing decades, the draw of populism (basically, the people against the elites) is more or less fated to grow, and that the neoliberal order is more or less on the rocks.

It was published in 2016, before the election. Obviously some water under the bridge since then but maybe not as much as you might think, given the macro trends.

One thing that stands out for me is how the RW populism of Trump and Le Pen doesn’t seem like an inevitable victor here, but in the absence of a LW populism that could catch on it seems to be the wave that history is riding — amplified by how the Democratic Party has more or less abandoned the working class in many important ways.

I agree that structural trends play a bigger role, and a lot of elections are in some ways decided years and even decades before they take place as people shift over time (in the aggregate). Though I think it may be the potential unwinding of the post 1945 world more so than the post 1970s world

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39V5_ui0XAA

This touches on some similar themes, in regards to Central Europe 2005 onwards

(^ esp re the conflation of political liberalism with economic liberalism)

Some of it is, I think, about other people getting “nice things” that you didn’t get. Like, reading that transcript summarizing discussions with Latino Trump supporters, it made me think about how I grew up with Reaganomics and how that social safety net that Reagan trashed was something that many people didn’t have. So when it gets re-introduced, and people who don’t get those benefits, or feel like they aren’t getting them see it… they get into “those people don’t deserve nice things that I didn’t get.” I think the RW crusade against DEI is part of it, and all the stuff about snowflakes and coddling children etc

And Trump fanning the flames of “forgiving student debt is unfair to the people who paid it off” — yep, there’s definitely a core conservative psychology that HATES seeing other people get things they don’t. They’d rather everyone lose than someone else win.

and why leftists blow a gasket over liberal means testing