U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

I mean...sure.

I am so sad about this election...please donate to my mental health fundraiser

Here are some pics of my dogs looking sad too

Dems incredibly good at getting Likes (and donations); not so good at getting votes.

We estimate that 42% of young voters (+/- 1%), ages 18-29, cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election, a lower youth turnout than in 2020—when our early estimate put youth turnout above 50%—and approximately on par with the 2016 presidential election.

We also estimate that youth voter turnout in battleground states may have been much higher: 50% on aggregate in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Young voters cast 14% of all ballots in the 2024 election, according to the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research. While this number may be adjusted in the coming days, and other data sources may show different numbers, this 2024 youth share of the vote was also lower than in 2020 (17%) and to 2016 (19%) based on the sane data source.

https://circle.tufts.edu/2024-election

curmudgeon at 10:41 7 Nov 24

https://open.substack.com/pub/taylorlorenz/p/why-democrats-wont-build-their-own?r=2ck8a&utm_medium=ios

Why Democrats haven’t or won’t “build “ their own Joe Rogan

This is smart about the differences in the support given to influencers on the right and the left. As Lorenz points out, a big part of it is money; wealthy Dem donors aren't going to bankroll "leftist content creators who support policies that are completely at odds with what billionaires want." But some of it, if I'm not extrapolating too much, also seems to be about a general distrust among establishment Dems of the grassroots sentiment on the left, not wanting to cede messaging control to people who aren't party loyalists.

Well, yeah. Look what happened to the GOP establishment when they gave their messaging over to talk radio hosts and web crazies.

No one has to post for anyone, people who believe in this sort of economy of support and posts and likes are utterly deranged.

I have plenty to lose because of this result, and the sky-is-falling-I-am-moving-to-Canada schtick is repulsive and narcissistic. Buck up, find your people, join a mutual aid org, tell people you love them. That’s what’s important, and those sorts of actions are where real change comes from anyway.

Love when stuff I post in the middle of what I said gets ignored

(Ftr I don't really feel like policing how ppl use social media or feel anybody has an obligation to be on it, but seeing people actively post all day about everything but the election and not even throwing a bone of support to their friends in despair, then acting defensive and aggrieved when asked to speak up...I support my friend's feelings)

Do me the favor of at least assuming I haven't conflated social media with actual activism folks

Agree with your paragraph at bottom, my hissy fit notwithstanding

I just don’t agree that it’s anyone’s responsibility to validate others on social media, to “speak up” as you say. fwiw i think we just disagree about this, and that’s fine. :-)

I can make one promise this term:

No "good mourning!" posts

Ok but keep the Negronis coming

Always.

Feel like the last three months of American politics should be deleted to protect some of the more strident voices about how Trump had no chance.

Re social media, some people find a sense of community and solace there, that's good and fine and people should do whatever works for them. Post, don't post, like, don't like, whatever. I don't think it's particularly useful to call people out for showing insufficient grief or fear or whatever — some people's ways of dealing with those things is to NOT talk about them.

Personally I'm somewhat relieved to find that my pre-election prep, where I spent many months accepting that another Trump term was a real possibility and thinking through what that would mean, has actually worked in keeping my mental/emotional balance. Late Tuesday/early Wednesday I flipped the switch to "Shit, OK, this is happening," and after trudging my way through yesterday on extremely limited sleep I slept for nearly 9 hours last night and woke up feeling rested and ready. This sucks, it's gonna REALLY suck soon, but lots of things already sucked and what is there to do but keep going, whatever that means on personal and political levels.

One thing that has cracked me up a little is several posts from liberal-left folks saying, "Well at least now I feel some clarity about this country." I mean, better late than never, but really?

Tipsy, same thing. Slept almost 10 hours last night, woke up much better. Living in a red county sobers one.

An organizer friend sent me this article today, and I'm getting SO much out of it, and it links to some curriculum and suggested materials that I think are very useful.

https://wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/10-things-to-do-if-trump-wins/

Under a Trump presidency, there are going to be so many issues that it will be hard to accept that we cannot do it all. I’m reminded of a colleague in Turkey who told me, “There’s always something bad happening every day. If we had to react to every bad thing, we’d never have time to eat.”

An elder once saw me trying to do everything and pulled me aside. “That’s not a healthy lifelong strategy,” she said. She’d been raised in Germany by the generation of Holocaust survivors who told her, “Never again.” She took it personally, as if she had to stop every wrong. It wracked her and contributed to several serious ongoing medical conditions. We can accept our humanity or suffer that lack of acceptance.

Chaos is a friend of the autocrat. One way we can unwittingly assist is by joining in the story that we have to do it all.

Over the last few months I’ve been testing out a terribly challenging tool. It’s a journaling exercise that invites you to reflect on which issues you’ll spend energy on. It asks: what are issues you’ll throw down on, do a lot for, a little for, or — despite caring about it — do nothing at all for? That last question can feel like a kind of torture for many activists, even while we’re intellectually aware that we cannot stop it all.

Slept almost 10 hours last night, woke up much better

I took a melatonin AND a valerian capsule, slept like a rock and I too feel better

xpost
If we work together - I'll worry about the crimes that start with the letter M.

People who insist that silence=death on social media are people who've never had a friend request from their boss.

Excellent first line of a novel.

Social media is for jokes and shitposting. And puppies.

Xp in orbit : thanks for posting that. Running a small nonprofit is a real exercise in figuring out the stuff in that journaling exercise … not saying that’s what everyone should do lol. The journaling exercise seems way easier. …

tabes you're good people it's fine. :).

I agree in general that it's not particularly helpful to make people feel there's a 'right' way to feel either because everybody has different ways of processing. otherwise you have people who interfere with their own grieving to make it like someone else's, but their grief isn't yours and vice versa. it goes both ways too. don't make people feel their despair is invalid but don't suggest someone's take that is more optimistic is callous either.

even despite preparing myself that it was a coinflip, Tuesday was brutal due to believing in the hope of a vibe shift. I'm a rational dude, I've been told before by people much smarter than I ignore EV stats, ignore anecdotal data on turnout, crowd sizes, etc, but I embraced them all anyway because it was a coping mechanism, I had to believe. two-three weeks prior to the election, I pretty much thought we were toast, and I doubled down on enjoying myself before what was going to be

both my friend and I were somewhat catatonic, even before the bad news really began coming in. it's funny because 2016 prepared us for what to look for - those early returns, who is overperforming their metrics? even before the needle, I started to have a bad feeling, and at the moment I first realized that it would probably take a miracle, I began hyperventilating and sweating heavily. but acceptance replaced it very fast. it was a 'heavy' acceptance, and once that set in, I decided to go to bed shortly after because I knew in that state I could sleep, but when that passed and anxiety took over, I wouldn't be able to. whereas in 2016 I could not sleep at all.

People who insist that silence=death on social media are people who've never had a friend request from their boss.

― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, November 7, 2024 2:00 PM bookmarkflaglink

I have a ton of co-workers on FB, but I have a hyper-curated friends list with different groups of friends sorted into buckets and everyone of my co-workers is part of a group who is restricted from seeing anything I actually post. it looks like I've been dormant for years.

as long as I don't make a dick pic my Cover photo I'm good

My employer sent out a memo after a certain thing in Oct 2023 that said it's okay to have your own opinion but if you express it in your social media, there will be consequences. Can they find that if your account is private? Idk but the concern is relatable.

Quite literally the only person I know from a current workplace context (almost ten years now) that I'm friends with on FB is a supervisor I got along well with, and who only sent the request some months after he retired. A coworker and I follow each other on IG but that's it there too. Basically I shunt all my actual professional contacts on the library side straight into my 'I have never really actively used it for anything at all but it's there' LinkedIn profile, should the need arise.

even though the senate is lost, i'm taking a little bit of comfort know that all of the centrist dems that were enamored with keeping the filibuster are out.

The challenge is cover photos, those are always public and if you write FUCK THE POLICE there and your boss is a copaholic...yeah

The other thing I've stopped doing is angry bantz with strangers. Not just because it's pointless, but cos if yr boss lives in the same city as you, perchance he might be reading the comments of whatever local publication you commented on..not to mention FB often shows things you responded to to your friends

Four 65-year old golfers are loudly talking about Trump and Giuliani at the burger place where I’m having lunch. I can’t imagine having to deal with these people every day in a work context.

They could also be in their 50s and it’s just been rough going.

In orbit thanks for posting that - In my nonprofit/activism days I read some of the psychology work done with activists and burnout and compassion fatigue.

How can I go to a movie when the warbler frogs are dying?

xpost I reflect on the perverse fact that I moved to SF a month before Trump announced his initial candidacy, because my overheard encounters with such types down in OC would have been much higher than here (here being none at all all this time, thankfully).

even though the senate is lost, i'm taking a little bit of comfort know that all of the centrist dems that were enamored with keeping the filibuster are out.

the ones we know about at least

in orbit THANK YOU for posting that....

I had been searching for something that outlined this for the last two days and this hit every topic. it was challenging and exactly what I needed and and I have shared with friends

i have a smattering of former coworkers who I trust on FB, people that I now regard as friends, and don't care if they see me occasionally go off on FB (which I used to do all the time, and now I almost never ever do because I got sick of FB). I used to tell Trump to go fuck off and die under my legal name on Twitter on a regular basis; I've deleted my account since then but wonder if those will be found and I'll be arrested some day.

the "omg Google for Die Trump and Find akm" act

Hey if they don't arrest Vance you'll probably also be okay

hold me closer tiny fascist

lol my bro just met John Fetterman because he came to R@ptor 3ncount3r at Un!vers@l Studios

sad I didn't know, I could have fed him a message to give him from us

From a roundtable here's Chuck Rocha, former Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign adviser:

If the Democratic Party is going to win elections moving into the future, we have to return to the values that made me join this party in 1990 as a 20-year-old factory worker in East Texas. I joined the Democratic Party to fight back against the NAFTA trade deal which was going to send my tire manufacturing job overseas. I also wanted to drain the D.C. swamp of rich elite people who thought they were better than me even though my tax dollars paid many of their salaries. I also want to stop wasting money, killing people overseas and invest that into factory towns like I grew up in where people were struggling. Who does that sound like? This may help as we lose men at such a dramatic rate.

We have become way too reliant on polling modeling and ad testing, and we have stopped talking to a wide swathe of people with low voter scores who get up every day and take a shower after they are done with work not before. This correlates a lot with the Latino performance because the fastest growing segment of the working class are Latino voters and one in four Latino men are tied to the construction industry. These voters aligned with the Democratic Party. They just don’t trust the brand anymore because Fox News and the podcast brosphere tell them we are weak.

Ruben Gallego’s Senate race showed us a path to win these groups back if we follow his lead and his campaign strategy, which helped deliver over 60 percent of Latino male voters to him while at the same time having historical performance with women.

It's great to hear some positive words and ways in which y'all are dealing with this river of pain.

As for me, I'm still in the depressed/devastated/angry-AF phase, caught in the doom loop of these two items:
a) intense frustration at voters for claiming to be against Project 2025 and pro-choice, yet electing a rapist plutocrat that aims at packing the courts with judicial activists that will nullify any past or future progressive legislation, or at worst, use the bench to force Project 2025 upon us
("How did you fall for this bullshit?")

b) equally intense anger at Dem campaign operatives - if the voters are so easy to manipulate, then where was our version of this manipulation? Why did we run a national campaign primarily aimed to please the aesthetic preferences and media diets of those who already own a Prius, rather than those who cannot yet afford, let alone might not want one? (And why did I reject my own doubts of this strategy?) In the future, I want a presidential candidate who, when standing on the debate stage with a rapist who dehumanizes fellow americans, will fucking call him a rapist and rip into him for demonizing Americans, directly to his fucking face. I want a campaign willing to get dirty, unmerciful, and ruthless.

(I realize this glosses over several items like third-way Clintonista failures of the '90s and '00s, mainstream media 'both-sides'ism on Trump, Joe Lieberman holding the Public Option hostage, Manchinema, AIPAC, Biden's unwillingness to spread the word about legislative victories in '21 and '22, Biden's unwillingness (or inability) to say anything at all about anything, etc...)

Worth a read:

“Blaming the outcome of this election on the Hispanic electorate is simply not supported by the electoral math in the Blue Wall states. To say otherwise is not only irresponsible, it is bad political analysis,” say Equis’s co-founders @stephanievalenc and @carlosodio pic.twitter.com/meMEAuRrUF

— María Luisa Paúl (@marialuisapaulr) November 6, 2024

kinda wonder what's in store for Harris after January... once you've been VP, it's not like you go back to the Senate or something... and it doesn't seem like she'd win a primary to have another go at the WF. Retirement, I guess? Start a foundation or something

Harris ultimately had the support she
needed with Latinos to win, if all else held according to plan.

xpost She'll follow the Nixon playbook and run for CA governor, lose, and then be elected President in 2032.

Boards of Directors, Chancellorship at a UC school