U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

This is an interesting post from a sociologist working with immigrants in Hawaii. Lots of good observations, but per the earlier talk here about the media I think her observations about news sources is important. (Post is from X, but I'm done linking to that.)

Sharon Quinsaat
@smquinsaat

I just woke up to the news that Trump is again the president of the United States. I want to say I am surprised, but I am not. I have been conducting fieldwork in Hawaii since June 2023 for our project on immigrant conservatives. I spent 1.5 months with Filipinos and many other immigrants and Native Hawaiians who are Republicans in Hawaii just before the elections, most of them Trump supporters (there were some who are "Never Trump" Republicans). So many of them were former Democrats. I don't have a hot take right now, and my observations are perhaps limited because Hawaii is different from the mainland. And yes, Harris still won in Hawaii. But let me share what I found out while in the field. I have not processed my field notes and interview data yet, so these are preliminary:

(1) Many people have real material grievances (e.g., housing, high cost of living) that to them is not being addressed by the Democratic leadership (Hawaii has been dominated by Democrats for 70 years). They have been extremely dissatisfied by the leadership that, to them, is "not really interested in solving their economic problems." The appeal to identity politics and threat of fascism (the main campaign message of Harris) does not resonate with them. They have just completely lost faith in the Democratic Party, and the only alternative for them (because we are a two-party system) is the Republicans. One interviewee said, "They promised and then they sold us out" (rough translation). One woman who went door-to-door campaigning for Obama in 2008 and 2012 went 180 in 2016 and completely disdained Democrats. She said, "I almost lost my house. I'm in debt. I have lost trust in their ability to deliver."

Now why would an underpaid Filipino immigrant and a Native Hawaiian who has been on the waitlist to finally get a home put their faith on the Republican Party and Trump to their economic concerns. These groups have faced extreme racism (the racial structure in Hawaii is different) and economic hardship. None of it made sense to me. None at all. Until I saw first hand the information that they consume to understand why they are having these problems.

(2) Their sources of information are nothing we have never heard of. Yes, there is still that staple of Fox News and News Max. There's also a lot reading Epoch Times, One America News, and Rumble. But I had a deep conversation with a Native Hawaiian (let's call her Lily) who regards Trump as a demi-god. She showed me on her phone the stuff she reads and listens to everyday. I have never heard of them before, but we listened to them together. The conspiracy theories in these sites are WILD, to say the least. But she is convinced they are true. I have my research assistants look at these sites and influencer/analyst because they are so new to me.
Lily and I are living in two different worlds.

(3) We know our society is extremely polarized. Political scientists and sociologists have said that in this kind of environment, it's more about winning rather than voting what is best for the country. There's also a high level of social sorting. I saw this in my fieldwork. It's nothing new that we are in our own bubbles. We are siloed. We are not talking to people who we don't share politics with. But this has translated into voting so that the other camp loses. One interviewee said, "I'm voting Republican just to stick it to the Democrats." Another said, "I want Trump to win, so I will get the last laugh."

(4) They are organized. Very organized. Through their church networks, military family circles, hobby/interest-oriented groups. They are not going out to talk to people during elections. They do that even way before.

(5) The reason that many people in Hawaii are still Democrats is the unions. The unions have been doing the job not only in getting better wages for their workers but educating them and their families. Many community organizers are union members too going door-to-door. The universities remain elite spaces.

(6) The Dems made a serious error moving right, appealing to so-called moderate Republicans and alienating their progressive base. I asked an interviewee about this, "The Cheneys are endorsing Harris. What do you think of that?" He said, "Why would I vote for a Democrat who is liked by a few Republicans when there is already a Republican running?" One laughed, "I can't believe Harris is trying to charm Republicans. That means we have a lot of power. Let's show her." Palestine may not be a main issue for them, but in all of the discussions and town hall meetings I've been, they have brought up Biden giving away their money to Israel.

I'm still processing everything. But I just wanted to share my observation from hanging out with Trump supporters in Hawaii just before the elections.

Robert Reich: A peaceful but determined resistance to Trump must start now

one word doesn't belong in that sentence, but he's still living in the before-times

I don’t see any rating sunshine, no matter how hard I squint. These numbers are pointing to some severely depressing demographic shifts that aren’t going away. We seem to be cranking out racist hateful young men at a record pace.

i just want to say that i disagree w/ this. i don't think one has to look at the demographic voting data from this election w/ despair. the democratic party has won presidential elections without the white male vote. the aspect that should obviously rattle the democratic party to its core is the disaffection that took root in every single voting bloc that makes up its coalition. but i don't think we're seeing permanent defections to the republican party in droves, among minority voters especially, as much as we're seeing people being compelled by trump, his message, and what they feel like he represents. i believe a lot of these people are going to be up for grabs again in the next election when trump (presumably...) is not on the ballot, and can be brought back into the party -- if the democrats choose to run a dynamic and relatable candidate who is able to articulate a clear vision for how left wing politics can better people's lives

xxp yeah. that goes back to an earlier point - right-wing media has completely taken over. they live in a totally separate world. as was mentioned many times in his first term, it's a real fucking problem that "real" news like WaPo or the NYT is behind a paywall while stuff like Rumble or the Joe Rogan podcast are free. there is no leftist equivalent to that. perhaps because there is no one who really stands to gain from it, besides the people. whereas Russia can just chuck tens of millions of dollars at Joe Rogan and Tim Pool to do their bidding.

it would be nice, for instance, to have one election that doesn't involve Trump as the centerpiece of each party's platform.

xpost

Honestly, I think that the Dems need to completely rethink their strategy, run on popular progressive policies that many people agree on, and do it loudly. This centrist corporate shit, with no conception as of how normal peoples’ lives are on the ground, must fucking go.

― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Wednesday, November 6, 2024 7:07 AM (eight hours ago)

i know nobody wants to re-litigate bernie vs hillary but you can draw a short and very direct line from the democratic party and its apparatus of funders strangling the bernie campaign in its crib and telling everyone compelled by his message to stfu and fulfill their duty of voting for hillary to what happened last night, which was the biggest repudiation of democratic politics by the working class in at least 40 years. a very direct line. does this happen again to the next bernie, or does the party actually see the value in a dynamic progressive candidate? i'm obviously very pessimistic about the answer to this question but maybe i will be surprised

i don't think one has to look at the demographic voting data from this election w/ despair. the democratic party has won presidential elections without the white male vote.

I don't know, I think a 30 point swing rightward in four years is not something to be so easily written off to not having a dynamic enough candidate.

also RIP dr morbius you were ahead of your time in hating the democratic party and i hear your voice often

Thanks for that post, Tipsy.

I do wish the Dems would at least all agree to not attend any event that Trump is at. Inaugural. State of the Union. Any of it. Don't even go to the Oval Office. Boycott him as much as possible. Don't invite him to anything. Have public hearings and meetings and town halls and don't invite Republicans! Have televised meetings led by Dem Senators and Congress people where you discuss what Trump is doing month by month. Shadow government in plain sight. And don't work with him at all. On anything. For four years. Don't give him one thing. Just focus on your own states.
They aren't cool enough to do any of that though...

a 30 point swing rightward in four years is not something to be so easily written off to not having a dynamic enough candidate.

― Maxmillion D. Boosted (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Wednesday, November 6, 2024 3:44 PM (one minute ago)bookmarkflaglink

kids grow up, they mature, a new politician comes along and changes people's minds. people are far too rigid in their perception of young people imo -- just in the same way that naive leftists were idiotic to profess gen z as the magically enlightened generation that was going to save us all, writing them off now as being permanently lost to andrew tate and trad wife content underestimates the degree to which people can, and will, change. some of these disaffected white men can be brought back by a political candidate who cuts thru their feeds w/ a new compelling message. it's absolutely possible and i think to some degree will happen, but the democratic party has to help facilitate its own survival

I guess the Dobbs decision didn't mean shit

J0rdan otm.

does this happen again to the next bernie, or does the party actually see the value in a dynamic progressive candidate?

Any successful Bernie-type candidate is going to have to be kind of like Trump in their ability to go directly to voters and run right over party efforts to block them. That's what Trump did. Bernie was never quite that potent, whether that was a problem with him as a candidate or his organization or whatever. But party establishments by their nature don't sit around hoping for an outsider candidate to come in and violate all their basic assumptions about how things should be done. Obama was that to some degree in '08 — not a Bernie figure, obviously, but very much an upstart facing the preferred party favorite, just like Bernie (the same favorite even, at least the first time).

there is no leftist equivalent to that

Means TV erasure (nb I don’t know if Means TV still exists)

Any successful Bernie-type candidate is going to have to be kind of like Trump in their ability to go directly to voters and run right over party efforts to block them.

So...Pritzker?

I think the Dems should just pretend Harris won the election. Like build their own White House and have bill signings and invite the Superbowl winners and order drone strikes on Iran and stuff like that.

The left has streamers like Hasan that do numbers but they’re not welcome within the Democratic Party because they question things like “arming a genocide”

strangling the bernie campaign in its crib

in every state that held a Democratic primary the ballot had Bernie on it and all they had to do was make a mark next to his name if they wanted him to win. Bernie was also pretty good at small donor fundraising and ran a good campaign in 2016. He got plenty of votes, but most of the time Hillary got more. Sure, the DNC and big donors backed Hillary, but Bernie had a direct path that bypassed the DNC and big donors and he still came up short. He did help move the party left and got some minor policy concessions because of that, but if you want more votes for progressive issues, you have to keep pounding at your message, making your arguments, finding ways to break through the media 'brownout' on how and why people are hurting and who is responsible.

There is probably no Democrat capable of getting the nomination who could have beat Trump. Obama might have. Bernie maybe. But none of the dream candidates mentioned when Biden was dropping out could have done it.

Hasan also said America deserved 9/11 so yeah he's not going have Hillary as a guest

Trump won NC by 3.3 points, but Democrats carried most statewide offices: Josh Stein (D), Governor. Rachel Hunt (D), Lt Governor, Jeff Jackson (D) AG, Elaine Marshall (D) Sec of State, and Mo Green (D) superintendent of Public Instruction.

— Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) November 6, 2024

Kamala Harris is speaking now, if anyone cares! (And I get it if you do care. Or don’t care!)

also Harris underperformed most of the Democratic senate candidates

we do really need to work harder at getting more state legislatures. punting on those as a priority is how we got Florida permanently ratfucking itself.

(yeah it's more complicated than that, some states are just longstanding strongholds for one party or hte other, but Florida didn't used to be that way when I was a kid)

Florida could have at least cheered a little today if we'd gotten Amendment 4 through

at no point was there ever a reckoning with the fact that kamala harris was a dead on arrival candidate for the nomination for her own party the one time she had to run. and she turned out to be a dead on arrival candidate for president. 2016 felt like being slowly consumed by quicksand. last night we showed up to a game that we thought started at 8 but was actually already over. this person was regrettably a completely awful candidate for president and next time around that hopefully should not be the case

wouldn’t bet on it

can Trump fight MIke Tyson instead plz

nevermind, he'd probably convince him to take a dive

she seemed like a really good candidate to me! shows what i know.

i didn't hate kamala at least. that's pretty huge right there.

yeah I think she was fine. more fool me.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/We_did_it,_Joe!

i never liked biden. on the other hand.

some of these disaffected white men can be brought back by a political candidate who cuts thru their feeds w/ a new compelling message. it's absolutely possible and i think to some degree will happen, but the democratic party has to help facilitate its own survival

― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Wednesday, November 6, 2024 2:50 PM (twenty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

right I do think the Bernie-to-Trump pipeline was a real thing, spurned on by Joe Rogan types - people just really, really fuckin' hate the establishment

if things don't go completely haywire in the next four years, the only way i seeing a dem defeating him is if the candidate is a straight up bully on trump's level.

with good reason, to be fair

(xp)

In the midst of this Garbagest of Days, are there any local election results people are happy about?

someone or someones should start a real honest to gosh third party right now. a bernie-type party. cuz fuck these two parties. they both suck.

agree, the problem isn't hating the establishment, it's that the disillusioned seem to conflate being an outsider in the political sense w/ not being a part of the same machine they actively hate. they may be in different wings of the same hospital, but they both work for it

If you think about actual progressive media, you've got like Mother Jones, Dissent, maybe TNR these days (I don't have a subscription so don't have a clear bearing on where they're at). I guess MSNBC qualifies, but it's still part of NBC, it has its built-in limits. So anyway, yeah, I think especially there's room and a need for overtly/intentionally progressive media, in the digital arena.

I know people here think it's corny, but Crooked Media (the company that puts out Pod Save America) was created specifically to address this imbalance and has built a pretty big fan base. One limitation, though, is that the founders are, by virtue of their background as Obama staffers, institutionalists who are closely aligned with the Democratic Party. That's great when it comes to motivating people to participate in electoral politics (through its Vote Save America initiative), but it isn't *leading* the party in the way that right-wing media has led elected Republicans over the past 30 years.

nah you have to take over the party from the inside, which will hopefully easier now that the elites have been fully discredited for the ninth time (prob not but feels good to say)

xp to scott

In the midst of this Garbagest of Days, are there any local election results people are happy about?

― Philip Nunez, Wednesday, November 6, 2024 1:26 PM

thank you for this, will report back later

accelerationists also think perhaps 'dismantling the system' is the solution, even if the vehicle is a mortal enemy, but the problem is, all electing Donald Trump did in 2016 is drive the Democratic party even more towards establishment candidates in 2020/2024 and dig us deeper into elections that bounce back and forth every cycle.

like, ok, we have another four years for Trump to permanently wreck the country and maybe that creates the seismic shift that finally creates something new emerges from the ashes, but it feels to me less that as the goal and more 'lol my candidate got destroyed by machine politics, so fuck u America'.

we would probably need to completely revamp elections to generate leftist candidates worth a shit - and I don't mean abolishing the Electoral College, I mean adopting European style runoff elections etc. and the chances of that ever happening in America, even 300 years from now, are too small to publish on PredictIt

i think it is probably #notgood that winning the presidency as a dem requires being a generational political talent (*biden covid caveat applied)

In the midst of this Garbagest of Days, are there any local election results people are happy about?

As I mentioned last night, the abortion rights amendment passed in Montana. That only lasts until the federal ban goes into effect, of course, but for a few months at least, it's not nothin'.

xxpost (that is not me saying the Democrats had 'no choice' but to run Biden and Harris, but me saying 'we already know from the last 40 years this is what they are going to do, and most politicians favor their career first, country second, so the idea that Trump was ever going to be the catalyst for a reckoning within the Democratic party was a pipe dream. they will not learn)